Tonight's episode is the finale for S45 and is titled "Living the Survivor Dream." Episode starts off with Austin confirming he was blindsided and then talking to Dee about what happened.

I'm sticking with my prediction from a number of weeks ago that F3 will be Jake, Julie, and Dee and the vote count will be 0–1–7.

--
Brian

On Wednesday, December 20, 2023 at 5:56:27 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
> Tonight's episode is the finale for S45 and is titled "Living the Survivor Dream." Episode starts off with Austin confirming he was blindsided and then talking to Dee about what happened.
>
> I'm sticking with my prediction from a number of weeks ago that F3 will be Jake, Julie, and Dee and the vote count will be 0–1–7.
>
> --
> Brian

For me, this was easily the best finale of the new era. I’d also say it was the best season of the new era.

When they got back to camp after the F6 TC I was a bit surprised when Austin told Dee that he wasn’t mad at her for not telling him that she was going to vote out Drew. Testament to how good Dee’s social game was.

The next morning there was a challenge on the beach to get an advantage in the F5 IC. It was a simple challenge involving counting items at three different stations spread out along the beach. The three numbers would open the box revealing the advantage note. If you guessed wrong, you had to start over. Jake went slower so his counts would be more accurate. It paid off for him.

F5 RC/IC

Jake’s advantage is that he would have two of his baskets at one stage of the challenge already done for him. I thought it was a pretty good advantage. Unfortunately for Jake, he forgot to take the keys with him which allowed Austin to pass him. Jake also didn’t notice he was missing a piece to his puzzle which might have cost him immunity. Jeff pointed it out to him after the challenge was over. It was another example of how no matter how hard Jake tried something would always go wrong to stop him from winning. Austin won F5 immunity.

F5 Reward

Austin got to take one person to the Sanctuary where they would get a big steak meal. Austin chose to take Jake because he had gone on the least number of rewards. He also chose him because he knew Jake would spill a ton of info which he did. Jake told Austin he had a HII which ruined the plan they had to take him out.

Back at Camp (F5)

The girls decided taking Jake out would be the easy thing to do. However, when the guys got back to camp it didn’t take Austin long to tell Dee that Jake had a HII. Jake told Katurah that he had an idol and showed it to her. Katurah pushed to Jake to take out Dee and he eventually swear on his Nana that he would. Going into F5 TC everyone except Julie knew Jake had a HII.

F5 Tribal Council

This was a crazy TC that had a huge impact on the outcome of the game. Jake played his HII as expected but he played it on Katurah which was not expected at all. When she went to vote she made a last-minute flip saying she sensed people were going to vote for her. She ended up voting for Julie instead of Dee which probably saved Dee’s butt. This is how the vote went down:

Julie: Jake
Jake: Dee
Katurah: Julie
Austin: Julie
Dee: Katurah

F4 (Day 25)

When they were back at camp the F4 discussed what happened. Katurah wasn’t happy that Jake didn’t tell her that he was going to use his HII on her. Jake screwed up because if he had told her, Dee would have been gone at F5.

F4 Immunity Challenge

This was the challenge where they had to stack cups while having to step over ropes. I thought Austin would win easily but he was a nonfactor. Dee ended up winning easily. In a first (?), Jake was eliminated for breaking the challenge. Jeff at one point said to Jake “If you break the challenge you’re out.” Jake then stepped on it and broke it and Jeff immediately tossed him out.

Back at Camp (F4)

Dee said to everyone she was willing to talk to them whenever they wanted. Jake wanted to talk right away. He asked to do fire saying he wanted to accomplish something. Dee was totally fine with that. Katurah asked to be taken to F3, but Dee told her she would be taking Austin. Austin wanted to make fire, but Dee saw through why he wanted to. She was confident that Jake would beat Katurah in fire.
F4 Tribal Council/Fire

Jake apologized to Jeff for breaking the challenge and Dee chose Austin to go to F3 with her. Jake won fire rather easily as Katurah could never get anything started. It looked like when she got flames going she would smother it the way she was rearranging her materials.

F3 Breakfast

This was different. They were clearly told to talk about the jury members in the order they were booted. When they mentioned a name, we were shown the juror talk about one the finalists’ games.

FTC

I thought FTC was very good other than for Kendra. Austin and Dee went after each other like they said they would. At first, they agreed with each other but when Austin started to take credit for things, Dee quickly started countering him. I thought Emily did Dee a huge favor when she called Austin on something which allowed Dee to interject and score a key point. Dee ended up winning 5–3–0 with Jake getting no votes. Based on what Emily said when she voted it sounds like she either doesn’t like Austin or doesn’t want Dee to think she won because of him.

https://twitter.com/AMikeBloomType/status/1737676027810210188

For the record, Kendra, Bruce, and Drew voted for Austin.

Aftershow

Other than Kendra trying to dominate things, I thought this was interesting.. Katurah told them she is a lawyer. Julie on her exit at F5 whispered to her she should go to law school and Jake said something similar when Katurah was leaving at F4. Julie also revealed that she’s a lawyer. Jeff then called out the three of them for lying to which Jake replied something like “I lied the least!”

I can’t remember if this was FTC or Aftershow or both, but Austin revealed that he was an alternate and didn’t find out he would be playing until 72 hours before the game started. They showed footage of him being told by a producer. He said not knowing until the last second probably helped him mentally as he didn’t have time to overthink things.

Emily was asked about taking out Bruce and if she regretted telling the others she was the one who played him. She said doing so was a mistake, but she wanted to take credit for a move that was all her.

With a few exceptions, this was a very likable cast, and they seem to really get along with each other. This season will go down as one of the better ones despite the early quits. It helped the quits all happened right at the start of the season. Dee will probably be ranked as an above average winner. Hopefully not too many people will claim Austin was robbed.

I was about half right with my prediction. Jake got no votes and Dee won. I was surprised Kendra voted for Austin. I thought she was big on wanting a woman to win? Anyway, I was quite happy with this season and can’t wait to see Emily play again.

--
Brian

Brian Smith wrote:

> For me, this was easily the best finale of the new era. I’d
> also say it was the best season of the new era.

Yeah, Survivor is a good show!

Longer episodes certainly helped, one could have wished for
more originality but "too much of a good thing" is actually -
a good thing.

It was also fun to see a young woman win, that hasn't happened
a lot, girls are sometimes envious of each other and guys
often cannot relate to girls. So they are in a disadvantage at
FTC I think for that reason.

But not to the extent they can never win, as we just saw!

Congrats Dee! \o/

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

On Thursday, December 21, 2023 at 10:33:07 AM UTC-7, Emanuel Berg wrote:
> Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > For me, this was easily the best finale of the new era. I’d
> > also say it was the best season of the new era.
> Yeah, Survivor is a good show!
>
> Longer episodes certainly helped, one could have wished for
> more originality but "too much of a good thing" is actually -
> a good thing.

Longer episodes need to become a permanent thing. Hopefully the S46 cast delivered like this vast did minus the quitters.

> It was also fun to see a young woman win, that hasn't happened
> a lot, girls are sometimes envious of each other and guys
> often cannot relate to girls. So they are in a disadvantage at
> FTC I think for that reason.
>
> But not to the extent they can never win, as we just saw!
>
> Congrats Dee! \o/

Of the five New Era seasons, women have won three which is a good sign. Should have been four as far as I'm concerned as Cassidy was robbed. S30 to S40 was horrible for women winners. IIRC, the only women winners during those 11 years were Sarah and Michele.

Yes, congrats to Dee. She played a good well-rounded game and didn't let her showmance partner take credit for moves she made. Austin was too trusting and she took advantage of that. Usually, it's the other way around.

--
Brian

Brian Smith wrote:

>> It was also fun to see a young woman win, that hasn't
>> happened a lot, girls are sometimes envious of each other
>> and guys often cannot relate to girls. So they are in
>> a disadvantage at FTC I think for that reason.
>>
>> But not to the extent they can never win, as we just saw!
>>
>> Congrats Dee! \o/
>
> Of the five New Era seasons, women have won three which is
> a good sign.

Okay, when did the New Era begin and what was the change?
The fire making contest? Or going permanently to Fiji? No,
that happened more than five seasons ago, or am I wrong?

> Should have been four as far as I'm concerned as Cassidy
> was robbed.

I also saw it that way but yeah, she didn't win.

> S30 to S40 was horrible for women winners. IIRC, the only
> women winners during those 11 years were Sarah and Michele.

Hey, we must get stats on this! Before we start analyzing.
A neat table with all FTC members season by season.
Maybe someone has one in some text file lying around?

Who is Sarah? Michele I remember well of course from the
awesome "Aubz" season :)

I remember a discussion here were we discussed the stats behind
doing the fire challenge. I remember we said, ~"interesting
stats, but it has only gone a couple of seasons". If we can
find that thread, we can see what the stats are now!

> Yes, congrats to Dee. She played a good well-rounded game
> and didn't let her showmance partner take credit for moves
> she made. Austin was too trusting and she took advantage
> of that.

Is that the consensus among Survivor fans why he lost? I don't
follow discussions anywhere else but here.

Also, did people sense that Jake wouldn't win so no point
wasting their vote on him? Or did not a single one think he
played the best game?

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

On Thursday, December 21, 2023 at 3:54:26 PM UTC-7, Emanuel Berg wrote:
> Brian Smith wrote:
>
> >> It was also fun to see a young woman win, that hasn't
> >> happened a lot, girls are sometimes envious of each other
> >> and guys often cannot relate to girls. So they are in
> >> a disadvantage at FTC I think for that reason.
> >>
> >> But not to the extent they can never win, as we just saw!
> >>
> >> Congrats Dee! \o/
> >
> > Of the five New Era seasons, women have won three which is
> > a good sign.
> Okay, when did the New Era begin and what was the change?
> The fire making contest? Or going permanently to Fiji? No,
> that happened more than five seasons ago, or am I wrong?

New Era started after the pandemic. It's when they switched to 26-day seasons, no names for the seasons, and the 50% casting rule. Fire started S35.

> > Should have been four as far as I'm concerned as Cassidy
> > was robbed.
> I also saw it that way but yeah, she didn't win.

> > S30 to S40 was horrible for women winners. IIRC, the only
> > women winners during those 11 years were Sarah and Michele.
> Hey, we must get stats on this! Before we start analyzing.
> A neat table with all FTC members season by season.
> Maybe someone has one in some text file lying around?
>
> Who is Sarah? Michele I remember well of course from the
> awesome "Aubz" season :)

Sarah Lacina who's played three times. How could you forget her? She played with Tony three time: Cagayan, Game Changers, and Winners at War. She won Game Changers.

> I remember a discussion here were we discussed the stats behind
> doing the fire challenge. I remember we said, ~"interesting
> stats, but it has only gone a couple of seasons". If we can
> find that thread, we can see what the stats are now!

Was it S44 where a woman set the record for fastest time to start fire? IIRC, it was around three minutes. I'm pretty sure the vast majority of firemaking winners have been men.

> > Yes, congrats to Dee. She played a good well-rounded game
> > and didn't let her showmance partner take credit for moves
> > she made. Austin was too trusting and she took advantage
> > of that.
> Is that the consensus among Survivor fans why he lost? I don't
> follow discussions anywhere else but here.

For the most part I would say yes.

> Also, did people sense that Jake wouldn't win so no point
> wasting their vote on him? Or did not a single one think he
> played the best game?

I haven't read or heard that any of the jurors thought Jake played the best game. As an aside, Jake said if there had been a tie vote that he would have voted for Dee to win.

--
Brian

Brian Smith wrote:

>> Okay, when did the New Era begin and what was the change?
>> The fire making contest? Or going permanently to Fiji? No,
>> that happened more than five seasons ago, or am I wrong?
>
> New Era started after the pandemic. It's when they switched
> to 26-day seasons, no names for the seasons, and the 50%
> casting rule. Fire started S35.

Ah, right!

We need a table with all seasons FTC and also whatever new was
introduced, rule changes, and such.

When they started with idols, three tribes, steal a vote, shot
in the dark, the super idol. But a lot of that stuff they also
stopped doing.

And all records! First player to score a 10-0-0 vote on FTC
and so on.

> Sarah Lacina who's played three times. How could you forget
> her? She played with Tony three time: Cagayan, Game
> Changers, and Winners at War. She won Game Changers.

Yes, of course, I remember her now. Maybe no coincidence
I didn't remember her, vanilla personality, not that there is
anything wrong with that.

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

>> S30 to S40 was horrible for women winners. IIRC, the only
>> women winners during those 11 years were Sarah and Michele.
>
> Hey, we must get stats on this! Before we start analyzing.
> A neat table with all FTC members season by season.
> Maybe someone has one in some text file lying around?

I just asked ChatGPT4

How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?

and it said 15.

Assuming that is correct, it means 30 seasons have been won
by men.

So exactly one third of the seasons (~33%) have been won by
women, and two thirds by men (~67%).

33% may be low but it is still much higher than I thought,
I would have said 20~25%, tops.

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

>>> S30 to S40 was horrible for women winners. IIRC, the only
>>> women winners during those 11 years were Sarah
>>> and Michele.
>>
>> Hey, we must get stats on this! Before we start analyzing.
>> A neat table with all FTC members season by season.
>> Maybe someone has one in some text file lying around?
>
> I just asked ChatGPT4
>
> How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?
>
> and it said [...]

Ah, I don't think one can trust ChatGPT4 on Survivor
trivia, really.

I went on to ask

What is the middle age of winners of CBS Survivor?

It says around 34.

That seems reasonable, but then it goes on to say that Ethan
Zohn (age 27, S3) was the youngest winner.

Yes, clearly incorrect.

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

On Thursday, December 21, 2023 at 7:43:35 PM UTC-7, Emanuel Berg wrote:
> >> S30 to S40 was horrible for women winners. IIRC, the only
> >> women winners during those 11 years were Sarah and Michele.
> >
> > Hey, we must get stats on this! Before we start analyzing.
> > A neat table with all FTC members season by season.
> > Maybe someone has one in some text file lying around?
> I just asked ChatGPT4
>
> How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?
>
> and it said 15.
>
> Assuming that is correct, it means 30 seasons have been won
> by men.
>
> So exactly one third of the seasons (~33%) have been won by
> women, and two thirds by men (~67%).
>
> 33% may be low but it is still much higher than I thought,
> I would have said 20~25%, tops.

15 is wrong. It's 18 which equates to 40%.

--
Brian

On Thursday, December 21, 2023 at 7:54:59 PM UTC-7, Emanuel Berg wrote:
> >>> S30 to S40 was horrible for women winners. IIRC, the only
> >>> women winners during those 11 years were Sarah
> >>> and Michele.
> >>
> >> Hey, we must get stats on this! Before we start analyzing.
> >> A neat table with all FTC members season by season.
> >> Maybe someone has one in some text file lying around?
> >
> > I just asked ChatGPT4
> >
> > How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?
> >
> > and it said [...]
>
> Ah, I don't think one can trust ChatGPT4 on Survivor
> trivia, really.
>
> I went on to ask
>
> What is the middle age of winners of CBS Survivor?
>
> It says around 34.
>
> That seems reasonable, but then it goes on to say that Ethan
> Zohn (age 27, S3) was the youngest winner.
>
> Yes, clearly incorrect.

Very incorrect. I can think of a lot of winners who were younger than 27 when they won. Dee was 26. There's no way the median age of winners is 34. I doubt the mean age is even that high.

--
Brian

Brian Smith wrote:

>> I just asked ChatGPT4
>>
>> How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?
>>
>> and it said 15 [...]
>
> 15 is wrong. It's 18 which equates to 40%.

I googled the same thing, and that data is from a site from
2021-12-09 saying

Out of the 40 seasons of Survivor, women have only won 15 of
them. [1]

So for seasons 1-40, 37.5% were won by women.

I suspect some other, also by now very much outdated source
was used to conclude that Ethan Zohn was the youngest to
ever win.

[1] https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/survivor-many-women-won.html/

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

"Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87il4qx4cp.fsf@dataswamp.org...
>
>Brian Smith wrote:
>
>>> I just asked ChatGPT4
>>>
>>> How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?
>>>
>>> and it said 15 [...]
>>
>> 15 is wrong. It's 18 which equates to 40%.
>
>I googled the same thing, and that data is from a site from
>2021-12-09 saying
>
> Out of the 40 seasons of Survivor, women have only won 15 of
> them. [1]
>
>So for seasons 1-40, 37.5% were won by women.
>
>I suspect some other, also by now very much outdated source
>was used to conclude that Ethan Zohn was the youngest to
>ever win.
>
>[1] https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/survivor-many-women-won.html/
>

Ethan would have been the youngest winner through season 5, but Jenna was
clearly younger when she won in Season 6.

Through season 45, there have been 18 female winners (counting Sandra two
times) meaning females have won 40% of the time. In the so-called "modern
era" (hate that term!), i.e., since season 41, women have won 3 out of 5 for
a 60% rate.

It's also interesting that among people who came in second or tied for
second, there have been 27 women vs. 24 men, which is just over 50%. If we
include all non-winner finalists, there have been 39 women vs. 36 men, which
is again just over 50%.

FWIW

--

On Friday, December 22, 2023 at 12:18:29 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
> "Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87il4qx...@dataswamp.org...
> >
> >Brian Smith wrote:
> >
> >>> I just asked ChatGPT4
> >>>
> >>> How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?
> >>>
> >>> and it said 15 [...]
> >>
> >> 15 is wrong. It's 18 which equates to 40%.
> >
> >I googled the same thing, and that data is from a site from
> >2021-12-09 saying
> >
> > Out of the 40 seasons of Survivor, women have only won 15 of
> > them. [1]
> >
> >So for seasons 1-40, 37.5% were won by women.
> >
> >I suspect some other, also by now very much outdated source
> >was used to conclude that Ethan Zohn was the youngest to
> >ever win.
> >
> >[1] https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/survivor-many-women-won.html/
> >
> Ethan would have been the youngest winner through season 5, but Jenna was
> clearly younger when she won in Season 6.
>
> Through season 45, there have been 18 female winners (counting Sandra two
> times) meaning females have won 40% of the time. In the so-called "modern
> era" (hate that term!), i.e., since season 41, women have won 3 out of 5 for
> a 60% rate.
>
> It's also interesting that among people who came in second or tied for
> second, there have been 27 women vs. 24 men, which is just over 50%. If we
> include all non-winner finalists, there have been 39 women vs. 36 men, which
> is again just over 50%.
>
> FWIW

I wonder what the vote count breakdown is between men and women. I could be totally wrong about this, but to me it seems like when women win it's not a blowout vote as often as it is with guys.

On a bit of a tangent, did you notice that Kaleb was the only guy who voted for Dee to win? Did Bruce not vote for her based on the comment she made during FTC?

--
Brian

On Wednesday, December 20, 2023 at 11:03:55 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:

> > I'm sticking with my prediction from a number of weeks ago that F3 will be Jake, Julie, and Dee and the vote count will be 0–1–7.

Pretty close. If Dee had been knocked out at 5, do you think that Julie would have won the game?

> For me, this was easily the best finale of the new era. I’d also say it was the best season of the new era.

The FTC was O.K., but everything leading up to it was consistent with the rest of the season IMO. FWIW, I would rank 41 ahead of 45.

> When they got back to camp after the F6 TC I was a bit surprised when Austin told Dee that he wasn’t mad at her for not telling him that she was going to vote out Drew. Testament to how good Dee’s social >game was.

IMO, Austin's reaction had nothing to do with Dee's social game.
> Austin got to take one person to the Sanctuary where they would get a big steak meal. Austin chose to take Jake because he had gone on the least number of rewards. He also chose him because he knew >Jake would spill a ton of info which he did. Jake told Austin he had a HII which ruined the plan they had to take him out.

That's true. But Jake's strategy was to trick Julie, Dee, and Austin into switching their votes to Katurah who he would then save using his immunity advantage. I understood what
he was trying to do, but he should have stuck with the KISS principal by keeping his advantage a secret, drawing all the votes to himself, and then taking out Dee with a single vote.
By doing so, he would have no need to deal with the moronic Katurah, and would still have impressed the jury.

> This was a crazy TC that had a huge impact on the outcome of the game. Jake played his HII as expected but he played it on Katurah which was not expected at all. When she went to vote she made a last->minute flip saying she sensed people were going to vote for her. She ended up voting for Julie instead of Dee which probably saved Dee’s butt.

This was the point at which I stopped watching. With one inexplicable decision, Katurah took a seat beside Erik Reichenbach and Woo Hwang as a contender for the execution of the worst late
game move in Survivor history.

> I thought FTC was very good other than for Kendra. Austin and Dee went after each other like they said they would. At first, they agreed with each other but when Austin started to take credit for things, Dee >quickly started countering him. I thought Emily did Dee a huge favor when she called Austin on something which allowed Dee to interject and score a key point. Dee ended up winning 5–3–0 with Jake getting >no votes.

Dee did a great job of explaining her game at FTC, and, of the three finalists, played the best game overall. Frankly, I was surprised that she only got five of the votes.

"Brian Smith" wrote in message
news:67559f2f-77af-40a6-a163-a871b35a704fn@googlegroups.com...
>
>On Friday, December 22, 2023 at 12:18:29 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
>> "Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87il4qx...@dataswamp.org...
>> >
>> >Brian Smith wrote:
>> >
>> >>> I just asked ChatGPT4
>> >>>
>> >>> How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?
>> >>>
>> >>> and it said 15 [...]
>> >>
>> >> 15 is wrong. It's 18 which equates to 40%.
>> >
>> >I googled the same thing, and that data is from a site from
>> >2021-12-09 saying
>> >
>> > Out of the 40 seasons of Survivor, women have only won 15 of
>> > them. [1]
>> >
>> >So for seasons 1-40, 37.5% were won by women.
>> >
>> >I suspect some other, also by now very much outdated source
>> >was used to conclude that Ethan Zohn was the youngest to
>> >ever win.
>> >
>> >[1]
>> >https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/survivor-many-women-won.html/
>> >
>> Ethan would have been the youngest winner through season 5, but Jenna was
>> clearly younger when she won in Season 6.
>>
>> Through season 45, there have been 18 female winners (counting Sandra two
>> times) meaning females have won 40% of the time. In the so-called "modern
>> era" (hate that term!), i.e., since season 41, women have won 3 out of 5
>> for
>> a 60% rate.
>>
>> It's also interesting that among people who came in second or tied for
>> second, there have been 27 women vs. 24 men, which is just over 50%. If
>> we
>> include all non-winner finalists, there have been 39 women vs. 36 men,
>> which
>> is again just over 50%.
>>
>> FWIW
>
>I wonder what the vote count breakdown is between men and women. I could be
>totally wrong about this, but to me it seems like when women win it's not a
>blowout vote as often as it is with guys.
>

You're not wrong. Men had shutouts of 9-0 (Earl), 7-0 (JT), 8-0 (Cochran),
10-0 (Jeremy) and 10-0 (Adam) - and last two were back-to-back, No woman
has ever won in a shutout. Jenna, Sandra, Danni and Denise all won 6-1
(Denise was actually 6-1-1) and Erika and Maryanne won 7-1. If my
calculations are correct, the average win among men (again, ignoring third
place votes) was 78% of the top two votes and the average for women was 73%.

>On a bit of a tangent, did you notice that Kaleb was the only guy who voted
>for Dee to win? Did Bruce not vote for her based on the comment she made
>during FTC?
>

Yes, and I believe Kendra was the only woman who did not vote for Dee. I
have not listened to or read any post-show interviews yet with the jury, but
I figured maybe Bruce was still holding a grudge against Emily who he
figured was closer to Dee than Emily.

>--
>Brian

--

"Rick" wrote in message news:um59ds$1p105$1@dont-email.me...
>
>"Brian Smith" wrote in message
>news:67559f2f-77af-40a6-a163-a871b35a704fn@googlegroups.com...
>>
>>On Friday, December 22, 2023 at 12:18:29 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
>>> "Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87il4qx...@dataswamp.org...
>>> >
>>> >Brian Smith wrote:
>>> >
>>> >>> I just asked ChatGPT4
>>> >>>
>>> >>> How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?
>>> >>>
>>> >>> and it said 15 [...]
>>> >>
>>> >> 15 is wrong. It's 18 which equates to 40%.
>>> >
>>> >I googled the same thing, and that data is from a site from
>>> >2021-12-09 saying
>>> >
>>> > Out of the 40 seasons of Survivor, women have only won 15 of
>>> > them. [1]
>>> >
>>> >So for seasons 1-40, 37.5% were won by women.
>>> >
>>> >I suspect some other, also by now very much outdated source
>>> >was used to conclude that Ethan Zohn was the youngest to
>>> >ever win.
>>> >
>>> >[1]
>>> >https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/survivor-many-women-won.html/
>>> >
>>> Ethan would have been the youngest winner through season 5, but Jenna
>>> was
>>> clearly younger when she won in Season 6.
>>>
>>> Through season 45, there have been 18 female winners (counting Sandra
>>> two
>>> times) meaning females have won 40% of the time. In the so-called
>>> "modern
>>> era" (hate that term!), i.e., since season 41, women have won 3 out of 5
>>> for
>>> a 60% rate.
>>>
>>> It's also interesting that among people who came in second or tied for
>>> second, there have been 27 women vs. 24 men, which is just over 50%. If
>>> we
>>> include all non-winner finalists, there have been 39 women vs. 36 men,
>>> which
>>> is again just over 50%.
>>>
>>> FWIW
>>
>>I wonder what the vote count breakdown is between men and women. I could
>>be totally wrong about this, but to me it seems like when women win it's
>>not a blowout vote as often as it is with guys.
>>
>
>You're not wrong. Men had shutouts of 9-0 (Earl), 7-0 (JT), 8-0 (Cochran),
>10-0 (Jeremy) and 10-0 (Adam) - and last two were back-to-back, No woman
>has ever won in a shutout. Jenna, Sandra, Danni and Denise all won 6-1
>(Denise was actually 6-1-1) and Erika and Maryanne won 7-1. If my
>calculations are correct, the average win among men (again, ignoring third
>place votes) was 78% of the top two votes and the average for women was
>73%.
>
>>On a bit of a tangent, did you notice that Kaleb was the only guy who
>>voted for Dee to win? Did Bruce not vote for her based on the comment she
>>made during FTC?
>>
>
>Yes, and I believe Kendra was the only woman who did not vote for Dee. I
>have not listened to or read any post-show interviews yet with the jury,
>but I figured maybe Bruce was still holding a grudge against Emily who he
>figured was closer to Dee than Emily.
>
>>--
>>Brian
>
>
>--

Correction - I meant to say Bruce was holding a grudge against Emily who he
figured was closer to Dee than Austin.

--

On Friday, December 22, 2023 at 5:25:35 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
> "Brian Smith" wrote in message
> news:67559f2f-77af-40a6...@googlegroups.com...
> >
> >On Friday, December 22, 2023 at 12:18:29 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
> >> "Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87il4qx...@dataswamp.org...
> >> >
> >> >Brian Smith wrote:
> >> >
> >> >>> I just asked ChatGPT4
> >> >>>
> >> >>> How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?
> >> >>>
> >> >>> and it said 15 [...]
> >> >>
> >> >> 15 is wrong. It's 18 which equates to 40%.
> >> >
> >> >I googled the same thing, and that data is from a site from
> >> >2021-12-09 saying
> >> >
> >> > Out of the 40 seasons of Survivor, women have only won 15 of
> >> > them. [1]
> >> >
> >> >So for seasons 1-40, 37.5% were won by women.
> >> >
> >> >I suspect some other, also by now very much outdated source
> >> >was used to conclude that Ethan Zohn was the youngest to
> >> >ever win.
> >> >
> >> >[1]
> >> >https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/survivor-many-women-won.html/
> >> >
> >> Ethan would have been the youngest winner through season 5, but Jenna was
> >> clearly younger when she won in Season 6.
> >>
> >> Through season 45, there have been 18 female winners (counting Sandra two
> >> times) meaning females have won 40% of the time. In the so-called "modern
> >> era" (hate that term!), i.e., since season 41, women have won 3 out of 5
> >> for
> >> a 60% rate.
> >>
> >> It's also interesting that among people who came in second or tied for
> >> second, there have been 27 women vs. 24 men, which is just over 50%. If
> >> we
> >> include all non-winner finalists, there have been 39 women vs. 36 men,
> >> which
> >> is again just over 50%.
> >>
> >> FWIW
> >
> >I wonder what the vote count breakdown is between men and women. I could be
> >totally wrong about this, but to me it seems like when women win it's not a
> >blowout vote as often as it is with guys.
> >
> You're not wrong. Men had shutouts of 9-0 (Earl), 7-0 (JT), 8-0 (Cochran),
> 10-0 (Jeremy) and 10-0 (Adam) - and last two were back-to-back, No woman
> has ever won in a shutout. Jenna, Sandra, Danni and Denise all won 6-1
> (Denise was actually 6-1-1) and Erika and Maryanne won 7-1. If my
> calculations are correct, the average win among men (again, ignoring third
> place votes) was 78% of the top two votes and the average for women was 73%.

Interesting.

> >On a bit of a tangent, did you notice that Kaleb was the only guy who voted
> >for Dee to win? Did Bruce not vote for her based on the comment she made
> >during FTC?
> >
> Yes, and I believe Kendra was the only woman who did not vote for Dee. I
> have not listened to or read any post-show interviews yet with the jury, but
> I figured maybe Bruce was still holding a grudge against Emily who he
> figured was closer to Dee than Emily.

Kendra voting for Austin still baffles me. She was so gung-ho on a woman winning yet she voted for a guy. It's hard to say why Bruce didn't vote for Dee. He seemed very disconnected during FTC and only came to life when Dee brought up his idol.

--
Brian

On Friday, December 22, 2023 at 2:53:23 PM UTC-7, zeppo wrote:
> On Wednesday, December 20, 2023 at 11:03:55 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > > I'm sticking with my prediction from a number of weeks ago that F3 will be Jake, Julie, and Dee and the vote count will be 0–1–7..
> Pretty close. If Dee had been knocked out at 5, do you think that Julie would have won the game?

Word on the street is that she would have won which is why she was being targeted so much. Julie and Dee at the end would have been interesting.

> > For me, this was easily the best finale of the new era. I’d also say it was the best season of the new era.
> The FTC was O.K., but everything leading up to it was consistent with the rest of the season IMO. FWIW, I would rank 41 ahead of 45.

S41 is one of the worst seasons for me. The woke shit, rewriting history, and the hourglass twist ruined the season.

> > When they got back to camp after the F6 TC I was a bit surprised when Austin told Dee that he wasn’t mad at her for not telling him that she was going to vote out Drew. Testament to how good Dee’s social >game was.
> IMO, Austin's reaction had nothing to do with Dee's social game.

I haven't seen any of his exit interviews but I imagine he was asked about that moment.

> > Austin got to take one person to the Sanctuary where they would get a big steak meal. Austin chose to take Jake because he had gone on the least number of rewards. He also chose him because he knew >Jake would spill a ton of info which he did. Jake told Austin he had a HII which ruined the plan they had to take him out.
> That's true. But Jake's strategy was to trick Julie, Dee, and Austin into switching their votes to Katurah who he would then save using his immunity advantage. I understood what
> he was trying to do, but he should have stuck with the KISS principal by keeping his advantage a secret, drawing all the votes to himself, and then taking out Dee with a single vote.
> By doing so, he would have no need to deal with the moronic Katurah, and would still have impressed the jury.

Gamewise, Jake was as big of a moron as Katurah. He tried to get way too fancy and forgot to factor in that Katurah had already stated she didn't trust him.

> > This was a crazy TC that had a huge impact on the outcome of the game. Jake played his HII as expected but he played it on Katurah which was not expected at all. When she went to vote she made a last->minute flip saying she sensed people were going to vote for her. She ended up voting for Julie instead of Dee which probably saved Dee’s butt.
>
> This was the point at which I stopped watching. With one inexplicable decision, Katurah took a seat beside Erik Reichenbach and Woo Hwang as a contender for the execution of the worst late
> game move in Survivor history.

I kind of disagree. Jake didn't come across as being genuine when he told her about his idol. If Jake had voted for Katurah, she would have looked just as dumb. To make you happy, Katurah said on X that she screwed up big time and relives the moment every time she pays the rent.

> > I thought FTC was very good other than for Kendra. Austin and Dee went after each other like they said they would. At first, they agreed with each other but when Austin started to take credit for things, Dee >quickly started countering him. I thought Emily did Dee a huge favor when she called Austin on something which allowed Dee to interject and score a key point. Dee ended up winning 5–3–0 with Jake getting >no votes.
> Dee did a great job of explaining her game at FTC, and, of the three finalists, played the best game overall. Frankly, I was surprised that she only got five of the votes.

I was surprised as well. I thought it would be 7–1 with Drew voting for Austin.

--
Brian

"Brian Smith" wrote in message
news:c2927b7e-596b-4b9a-afba-179e19de2173n@googlegroups.com...
>
>On Friday, December 22, 2023 at 5:25:35 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
>> "Brian Smith" wrote in message
>> news:67559f2f-77af-40a6...@googlegroups.com...
>> >
>> >On Friday, December 22, 2023 at 12:18:29 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
>> >> "Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87il4qx...@dataswamp.org...
>> >> >
>> >> >Brian Smith wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> >>> I just asked ChatGPT4
>> >> >>>
>> >> >>> How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?
>> >> >>>
>> >> >>> and it said 15 [...]
>> >> >>
>> >> >> 15 is wrong. It's 18 which equates to 40%.
>> >> >
>> >> >I googled the same thing, and that data is from a site from
>> >> >2021-12-09 saying
>> >> >
>> >> > Out of the 40 seasons of Survivor, women have only won 15 of
>> >> > them. [1]
>> >> >
>> >> >So for seasons 1-40, 37.5% were won by women.
>> >> >
>> >> >I suspect some other, also by now very much outdated source
>> >> >was used to conclude that Ethan Zohn was the youngest to
>> >> >ever win.
>> >> >
>> >> >[1]
>> >> >https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/survivor-many-women-won.html/
>> >> >
>> >> Ethan would have been the youngest winner through season 5, but Jenna
>> >> was
>> >> clearly younger when she won in Season 6.
>> >>
>> >> Through season 45, there have been 18 female winners (counting Sandra
>> >> two
>> >> times) meaning females have won 40% of the time. In the so-called
>> >> "modern
>> >> era" (hate that term!), i.e., since season 41, women have won 3 out of
>> >> 5
>> >> for
>> >> a 60% rate.
>> >>
>> >> It's also interesting that among people who came in second or tied for
>> >> second, there have been 27 women vs. 24 men, which is just over 50%.
>> >> If
>> >> we
>> >> include all non-winner finalists, there have been 39 women vs. 36 men,
>> >> which
>> >> is again just over 50%.
>> >>
>> >> FWIW
>> >
>> >I wonder what the vote count breakdown is between men and women. I could
>> >be
>> >totally wrong about this, but to me it seems like when women win it's
>> >not a
>> >blowout vote as often as it is with guys.
>> >
>> You're not wrong. Men had shutouts of 9-0 (Earl), 7-0 (JT), 8-0
>> (Cochran),
>> 10-0 (Jeremy) and 10-0 (Adam) - and last two were back-to-back, No woman
>> has ever won in a shutout. Jenna, Sandra, Danni and Denise all won 6-1
>> (Denise was actually 6-1-1) and Erika and Maryanne won 7-1. If my
>> calculations are correct, the average win among men (again, ignoring
>> third
>> place votes) was 78% of the top two votes and the average for women was
>> 73%.
>
>Interesting.
>
>> >On a bit of a tangent, did you notice that Kaleb was the only guy who
>> >voted
>> >for Dee to win? Did Bruce not vote for her based on the comment she made
>> >during FTC?
>> >
>> Yes, and I believe Kendra was the only woman who did not vote for Dee. I
>> have not listened to or read any post-show interviews yet with the jury,
>> but
>> I figured maybe Bruce was still holding a grudge against Emily who he
>> figured was closer to Dee than Emily.
>
>Kendra voting for Austin still baffles me. She was so gung-ho on a woman
>winning yet she voted for a guy. It's hard to say why Bruce didn't vote for
>Dee. He seemed very disconnected during FTC and only came to life when Dee
>brought up his idol.
>
>--
>Brian

He did seem disconnected, but I assumed it was just because he was perceived
as the father figure for the group and he felt out of place (unlike Julie
who seemed right at home with everyone). I'm sure Rob C. will do a
deep-dive interview with him at some point and we'll get the full story.

--

Rick wrote:

> You're not wrong. Men had shutouts of 9-0 (Earl), 7-0 (JT),
> 8-0 (Cochran), 10-0 (Jeremy) and 10-0 (Adam) - and last two
> were back-to-back, No woman has ever won in a shutout.

Maybe this has to do with what I said, that women are often
envious of each other, and guys sometimes cannot even relate
to girls, but it can also have to do with the mechanics of the
early game where it was possibly to bring a hopeless player,
a "goat", to FTC and win easily.

The fire making contest made that much more difficult and
I think it was introduced with that exactly in mind, to not
have unexciting FTCs with blowout victories.

But sure, theories aside, if the stats continue to even out so
there is soon a close to 50/50 gender distribution of winners,
at that point one can't make the case anymore that female
players are in any way at a disadvance.

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

>> You're not wrong. Men had shutouts of 9-0 (Earl), 7-0 (JT),
>> 8-0 (Cochran), 10-0 (Jeremy) and 10-0 (Adam) - and last two
>> were back-to-back, No woman has ever won in a shutout.
>
> Maybe this has to do with what I said, that women are often
> envious of each other, and guys sometimes cannot even relate
> to girls, but it can also have to do with the mechanics of the
> early game where it was possibly to bring a hopeless player,
> a "goat", to FTC and win easily.

Another thing might be the kind of guys that are casted.
I felt like in the past there was always the alpha male guys
present, firefighters, adventure guys, former ice hockey
players and such.

Don't know if they got bored with those types of guys.

Anyway I can see how those kind of stable and "uncomplicated"
guys have an edge at FTC.

But this is my perception, maybe stats don't support
that either.

But at the very least, In this season, the closest you get to
that is probably Bruce. And that says a lot!

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

On Saturday, December 23, 2023 at 12:23:00 PM UTC-7, Emanuel Berg wrote:
> Rick wrote:
>
> > You're not wrong. Men had shutouts of 9-0 (Earl), 7-0 (JT),
> > 8-0 (Cochran), 10-0 (Jeremy) and 10-0 (Adam) - and last two
> > were back-to-back, No woman has ever won in a shutout.
> Maybe this has to do with what I said, that women are often
> envious of each other, and guys sometimes cannot even relate
> to girls, but it can also have to do with the mechanics of the
> early game where it was possibly to bring a hopeless player,
> a "goat", to FTC and win easily.
>
> The fire making contest made that much more difficult and
> I think it was introduced with that exactly in mind, to not
> have unexciting FTCs with blowout victories.
>
> But sure, theories aside, if the stats continue to even out so
> there is soon a close to 50/50 gender distribution of winners,
> at that point one can't make the case anymore that female
> players are in any way at a disadvance.
> --

The three-tribe format we seem to be stuck with is a disadvantage to women players. The start of the season puts too much emphasis on strength which usually results in a woman being targeted if the tribe loses a challenge because they fear being whittled down to nothing. We see this happen so often that it's hard to believe Jeff doesn't see it. Is it one of his ways to give guys an advantage over the girls?

--
Brian

On Saturday, December 23, 2023 at 9:36:21 AM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
> "Brian Smith" wrote in message
> news:c2927b7e-596b-4b9a...@googlegroups.com...
> >
> >On Friday, December 22, 2023 at 5:25:35 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
> >> "Brian Smith" wrote in message
> >> news:67559f2f-77af-40a6...@googlegroups.com...
> >> >
> >> >On Friday, December 22, 2023 at 12:18:29 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
> >> >> "Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87il4qx...@dataswamp.org...
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Brian Smith wrote:
> >> >> >
> >> >> >>> I just asked ChatGPT4
> >> >> >>>
> >> >> >>> How many seasons of CBS Survivor have been won by women?
> >> >> >>>
> >> >> >>> and it said 15 [...]
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> 15 is wrong. It's 18 which equates to 40%.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >I googled the same thing, and that data is from a site from
> >> >> >2021-12-09 saying
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Out of the 40 seasons of Survivor, women have only won 15 of
> >> >> > them. [1]
> >> >> >
> >> >> >So for seasons 1-40, 37.5% were won by women.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >I suspect some other, also by now very much outdated source
> >> >> >was used to conclude that Ethan Zohn was the youngest to
> >> >> >ever win.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >[1]
> >> >> >https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/survivor-many-women-won.html/
> >> >> >
> >> >> Ethan would have been the youngest winner through season 5, but Jenna
> >> >> was
> >> >> clearly younger when she won in Season 6.
> >> >>
> >> >> Through season 45, there have been 18 female winners (counting Sandra
> >> >> two
> >> >> times) meaning females have won 40% of the time. In the so-called
> >> >> "modern
> >> >> era" (hate that term!), i.e., since season 41, women have won 3 out of
> >> >> 5
> >> >> for
> >> >> a 60% rate.
> >> >>
> >> >> It's also interesting that among people who came in second or tied for
> >> >> second, there have been 27 women vs. 24 men, which is just over 50%..
> >> >> If
> >> >> we
> >> >> include all non-winner finalists, there have been 39 women vs. 36 men,
> >> >> which
> >> >> is again just over 50%.
> >> >>
> >> >> FWIW
> >> >
> >> >I wonder what the vote count breakdown is between men and women. I could
> >> >be
> >> >totally wrong about this, but to me it seems like when women win it's
> >> >not a
> >> >blowout vote as often as it is with guys.
> >> >
> >> You're not wrong. Men had shutouts of 9-0 (Earl), 7-0 (JT), 8-0
> >> (Cochran),
> >> 10-0 (Jeremy) and 10-0 (Adam) - and last two were back-to-back, No woman
> >> has ever won in a shutout. Jenna, Sandra, Danni and Denise all won 6-1
> >> (Denise was actually 6-1-1) and Erika and Maryanne won 7-1. If my
> >> calculations are correct, the average win among men (again, ignoring
> >> third
> >> place votes) was 78% of the top two votes and the average for women was
> >> 73%.
> >
> >Interesting.
> >
> >> >On a bit of a tangent, did you notice that Kaleb was the only guy who
> >> >voted
> >> >for Dee to win? Did Bruce not vote for her based on the comment she made
> >> >during FTC?
> >> >
> >> Yes, and I believe Kendra was the only woman who did not vote for Dee. I
> >> have not listened to or read any post-show interviews yet with the jury,
> >> but
> >> I figured maybe Bruce was still holding a grudge against Emily who he
> >> figured was closer to Dee than Emily.
> >
> >Kendra voting for Austin still baffles me. She was so gung-ho on a woman
> >winning yet she voted for a guy. It's hard to say why Bruce didn't vote for
> >Dee. He seemed very disconnected during FTC and only came to life when Dee
> >brought up his idol.
> >
> >--
> >Brian
> He did seem disconnected, but I assumed it was just because he was perceived
> as the father figure for the group and he felt out of place (unlike Julie
> who seemed right at home with everyone). I'm sure Rob C. will do a
> deep-dive interview with him at some point and we'll get the full story.
>
> --

I highly doubt Bruce felt out of place. Last season when Bruce was at Ponderosa with all the prejury girls, Maddy said they had a great time with him. She posted a lot of pics to back up her claims. After the season was over, they had meetups where it looked like Bruce had a lot of fun based on the videos posted. My guess is that not playing his idol haunted him the entire time.

--
Brian

Brian Smith wrote:

> The three-tribe format we seem to be stuck with is
> a disadvantage to women players. The start of the season
> puts too much emphasis on strength which usually results in
> a woman being targeted if the tribe loses a challenge
> because they fear being whittled down to nothing. We see
> this happen so often that it's hard to believe Jeff doesn't
> see it. Is it one of his ways to give guys an advantage over
> the girls?

Yes, the "keep the tribe strong" argument for voting
for someone who isn't perceived as being on of them.

I didn't think of this aspect in connection to the three
tribes situation, I disliked it for other reasons: more
competition, less duel between tribes in challenges; and,
since the tribes are smaller, you don't get to know a lot of
the players early on since a third vs half gets all the
attention after the immunity challenge. And just in general,
I like things uncomplicated and grand.

But it is possible that the hot young girl being voted out
early on can be remedied to some extent by having 2 tribes
instead of 3 initially (and always). Since in a big tribe, you
can afford targeting some huge dude since probably you have
2-3 of them to start with.

Is that what you meant?

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal