Americans are overwhelmingly convinced that crime has risen in
comparison to last year as voters prepare to cast ballots in the
midterm elections.

According to a new poll from Gallup, roughly 56% of adults reported an
increase in crime where they live, while 78% believe that crime has
risen in the nation as a whole, marking the worst sentiment about
public safety in three decades. While a far higher percentage of
Republicans reported more local crime, Democratic views were
essentially unchanged, even as independents� perceptions leaned toward
concerns of increased lawlessness.

On the issue of crime, Republicans boast a 14% lead over their
Democratic counterparts in terms of voter trust ahead of the midterms,
including a 34% lead among independents, according to a poll from ABC
News and The Washington Post. The present election cycle has witnessed
several Republican underdogs surging to become viable candidates
against Democratic incumbents. In deep-blue New York, for example,
Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin is posing a surprise challenge to
Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul as residents become increasingly
worried about public safety and homelessness.

Nevertheless, MSNBC opinion columnist Hayes Brown wrote in an analysis
that the Gallup poll shows the �disconnect between the perception of
increased crime in an area and whether that purported increase can
accurately be measured,� adding that Republican efforts to �frame
cities as liberal-created hellscapes� may have shaped sentiment. He
referred to nationwide crime data from the Department of Justice which
showed that �violent victimization,� which includes violent crimes such
as rape and robbery while omitting murder, �did not change� between
2020 and 2021, even as property crimes �had not significantly
increased� from the previous year.

�This is an only slightly less dangerous version of former President
Donald Trump�s election denialism cycle in 2020: Say that there�s a
problem without real evidence, then use the fact that people think
there is a problem as proof that a problem exists,� Hayes wrote.
�Republicans have invested a lot of time and money into priming the
country to believe that Democrats have heralded in a new era of
lawlessness and only the GOP�s mass incarceration plans can keep people
safe. Gallup�s poll shows Republicans are getting a very solid return
on that investment.�

Meanwhile, many cities have indeed witnessed crime waves even beyond
the massive jump seen two years ago, according to data assembled by
WalletHub. Cities such as New Orleans, Detroit, Albuquerque, and
Colorado Springs saw increases in their homicide rate per capita
between the third quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. Twelve
of the major American cities which set new homicide records last year
were run by Democrats.

Noting that �violent crime increases have continued� into this year
across much of the country, University of Pennsylvania criminology
professor Richard Berk contended that the rise of the Black Lives
Matter movement and criticism of police force is among the best
explanations for the rise in crime over the past eight years.

�Some moderation in the use of force could result from well-meaning
responses to past excesses, while some police officers might simply
choose to abstain from any encounters for which they might be later
criticized, fired, sued, or criminally charged,� he wrote. �Whatever
the truth behind such conjectures, one consequence might be to embolden
individuals already inclined toward violence; public criticism of the
police might be seen as delivering the proverbial get-out-of-jail-free
card.�

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Let's go Brandon!