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arts / alt.history.what-if / Re: The Bay of Pigs invasion succeeds

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o Re: The Bay of Pigs invasion succeedsWolfBear

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Re: The Bay of Pigs invasion succeeds

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Subject: Re: The Bay of Pigs invasion succeeds
From: m4j...@gmail.com (WolfBear)
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 by: WolfBear - Fri, 2 Apr 2021 22:57 UTC

On Saturday, March 20, 2021 at 12:39:09 PM UTC-7, Chrysi Cat wrote:
> On 3/17/2021 12:10 PM, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> > WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> On Sunday, March 7, 2021 at 11:55:18 AM UTC-8, WolfBear wrote:
> >>> What if the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba in 1961
> >>> would have actually succeeded? What would the
> >>> effects of this have been?
> >>
> >> Anyone?
> >
> > We'll assume that the invasion _as_ _conducted_ somehow
> > succeeds. That avoids considering the knock-ons from a
> > previous supporting PoD such as Nixon winning in 1960.
> >
> > It's a major victory for militant anti-Communism. It erases
> > the most "popular" Communist icon of the next generation.
> >
> > The absence of revolutionary triumph in Cuba probably
> > discourages other would-be guerrilla movements in Latin
> > America - no civil wars in El Salvador and Honduras, no
> > Sandinistas in Nicaragua, no FARC, no Sendero Luminoso.
> >
> > It probably removes the Dominican Republic intervention.
> >
> > It largely removes both the small real and overrated apparent
> > Communist threat in Latin America, and thus creates more space
> > for left politics there (IMO).
> >
> > In Chile - Cubans were heavily involved in the Allende regime
> > and its preparations for insurrection and civil war; a Cuban
> > diplomat admitted publicly that Cuba had provided tens of
> > thousands of guns for Red "militias". That goes away.
> >
> > It may also diminish the fear of Communist involvement in
> > anti-colonial politics elsewhere, e.g. in Congo. Thus
> > Lumumba may stick around.
> >
> > In Cuba itself - if democracy is re-established, greater
> > prosperity there. Cuba probably becomes a major US tourist
> > destination, competing with the other Caribbean countries.
> >
> "RE-established"?!? Batista was elevated to his position by no process
> that could be considered democratic. "Capitalist dictators in Cuba
> rather than Communist ones" doesn't really change that much for 85
> percent or more of Cubans, except _possibly_ make them even *poorer*;
> they'll of course be RELATIVELY so even if not ABSOLUTELY so, because
> the 1% and the 10% will still not only exist but be ACKNOWLEDGED to exist.
>
> If another US-supported dictator is emplaced, you may be right about at
> least managing to maintain the Batista-era golden facade, and if you do,
> New Yorkers *may* feel that they're willing to travel that far for their
> casino fix. If they DON'T feel they need a closer one, that may prevent
> gambling from being legalised, 18 years down the road, in Atlantic City;
> THAT would have major knock-on effects, as Atlantic City was PROBABLY
> the breach in the dike that allowed the referenda in places like
> Colorado and California to succeed, so Nevada would still have an
> economic niche all to itself.
> If they still eventually feel like they need a gambling location to
> which they can day-trip, then of course, there are no major impacts upon
> the US at all.
> > Of course there will be many fewer Cuban refugees settling
> > in the US; the politics of Miami and Florida will be altered.
> >

Just how much less Cuban-Americans do you think that there are actually going to be right now (in 2021) in this TL in comparison to our TL?

> > Way down the road - the US may give up Guantanamo. If a
> > nationalist but unquestionably non-Communist government is
> > making the demand, it would be much more likely that the
> > US agrees.
> >
> Worked in the Philippines, which would likely have demanded the US out
> even if Subic hadn't been coated in volcanic ash by the end.
>
> --
> Chrysi Cat
> 1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
> Transgoddess, quick to anger.
> Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!

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