The Butterfly Effect. Or how significant change in nature
is generally sudden and catastrophic.

From a systems science perspective the sudden collapse
in Afghanistan quite like the perfect rumor.

Where complete certainty in the facts are combined
with complete uncertainty with the future.

The US withdrawal provides the sudden new certainty.
The future afterwards provides the highly uncertain
future.

This elegant combination or order/disorder or
certainty/uncertainty is the hallmark of
a complex adaptive system (CAS) where the
....Butterfly Effect rules.

Which is behavior where the slightest cause can
create a nearly infinite effect.

The result is the system assumes the worst/best case
scenario and acts accordingly. For stock trading
either panic selling/buying immediately results.

The flock takes flight!

As seen in this video where even the barely audible slap
of an oar (cause) can produce this majestic and
overwhelming system-wide (effect).

Murmuration (Official Video) by Sophie Windsor Clive & Liberty Smith
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRNqhi2ka9k&ab_channel=IslandsAndRivers

Three goals are required to initiate such a system wide
response.

With the special case of Afghanistan these three
goals would be:

First /physically isolate/ the various pro-govt
forces throughout the nation.

Second /electronically connect/ the various pro-govt
forces via cell phones.

Then present the govt forces with only two possible
choices. Live or Die.

This creates a system that is highly sensitive to
changes, like birds on a wire. Effect one and
you effect them all...at the same time.

And even the slightest disturbance can set such
a critically interacting 'flock' in motion and
all at once.

The first time those physically isolated govt forces
see images of their comrades surrendering without
firing a shot, it goes...viral.

And they all surrender without a firing a shot at
the same time, as if a shotgun blast to a flock of
nervous birds on a wire.

New Atlanticist by Benjamin Jensen

How the Taliban did it: Inside the ‘operational art’
of its military victory

1. Isolating the Afghan military

"The collapse of the Afghan security forces was a result
of operational-level isolation. In US Army doctrine,
isolation involves sealing off an enemy both physically
and psychologically from its base of support—denying
them freedom of movement and preventing reinforcement."

"The approach dispersed units across the country and rendered
them unable to mutually reinforce one another. The Taliban
exploited this vulnerability, disrupting ground lines of c
ommunication in an effort to further isolate the checkpoints
and set the conditions for the defeat of Afghan forces."

2. Targeting cohesion through threats and texts

"Put yourself in the shoes of an Afghan soldier:
You are in a combat outpost, running out of food
and ammunition, fighting for an unpopular government,
and forced to pay bribes due to endemic corruption.

As you look at your cell phone, all you see are images
of fellow soldiers surrendering. Even if you opt to fight,
your morale and will to fight have been undermined."

3. Practicing a new form of terror: kill and compel

"The insurgents flooded social media with images that offered
surrounded Afghan security forces a Hobson’s choice: Surrender
and live—or die and wonder if the Taliban will kill your
family next.

More than 70 percent of the Afghan population has access to
cell phones, and the Taliban has adapted accordingly—using
modern, Russian-style information warfare that deploys
fake accounts and bots to spread its messages and undermine
the Afghan government."
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-the-taliban-did-it-inside-the-operational-art-of-its-military-victory/

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
THE TALIBAN’S WINNING STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN

Summary

A misunderstanding of the insurgency is at the heart of the
difficulties facing the International Coalition in Afghanistan.

The Taliban are often described as an umbrella movement
comprising loosely connected groups that are essentially
local and unorganized. On the contrary, this
report’s analysis of the structure and strategy
of the insurgency reveals a resilient adversary, engaged
in strategic planning and coordinated action.

The Taliban are a revolutionary movement, deeply opposed
to the Afghan tribal system and focused on the rebuilding
of the Islamic Emirate. Their propaganda and intelligence
are efficient, and the local autonomy of their commanders
in the field allow them both flexibility and cohesion.

They have made clever use of ethnic tensions, the rejection of
foreign forces by the Afghan people, and the lack of
local administration to gain support in the population.

In so doing the Taliban have achieved their objectives in the
South and East of the country, isolating the Coalition,
marginalizing the local Afghan administration, and
establishing a parallel administration (mainly to
dispense Sharia justice and collect taxes).

In recent months, a more professional Taliban have
succeeded in making significant inroads by recruiting
from non-Pashtun communities.
https://carnegieendowment.org/files/taliban_winning_strategy.pdf

--
BIG LIE From Wiki - "The German expression was coined by Adolf Hitler
when he dictated his 1925 book Mein Kampf, to describe the use of a lie
so *colossal* that no one would believe that someone "could have the
impudence to distort the truth so infamously."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_lie

On 8/17/2021 11:59 AM, Jonathan wrote:

The Taliban have learned how nature works, how
to wield the power of nature as if they were
gods.

And as we're witnessing right now, not even the
most powerful nation this planet has ever seen
can stand in Her way.

Not a chance.

Like I said in an earlier post the good guys need
to learn the secret to nature first.

It's not enough our sciences understand these things
our leaders and our general population need to also.

They have, it appears.

Jonathan

"The wind drew off
Like hungry dogs
Defeated of a bone—
Through fissures in
Volcanic cloud
The yellow lightning shone—
The trees held up
Their mangled limbs
Like animals in pain—
When Nature falls upon herself
Beware an Austrian."

~ E Dickinson

--
BIG LIE From Wiki - "The German expression was coined by Adolf Hitler
when he dictated his 1925 book Mein Kampf, to describe the use of a lie
so *colossal* that no one would believe that someone "could have the
impudence to distort the truth so infamously."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_lie

On Tuesday, August 17, 2021 at 12:29:03 PM UTC-4, Jonathan wrote:
> On 8/17/2021 11:59 AM, Jonathan wrote:
>
>
> The Taliban have learned how nature works, how to wield the power of
> nature as if they were gods.
>
> And as we're witnessing right now, not even the most powerful nation
> this planet has ever seen can stand in Her way.
[snip]

Do you have any good reason for putting every single sentence in its own
paragraph? It makes your messages extremely tedious to read.

ner lbh fher gung vf gur ceboyrz

On 8/18/2021 12:46 PM, Ross Presser wrote:
> On Tuesday, August 17, 2021 at 12:29:03 PM UTC-4, Jonathan wrote:
>> On 8/17/2021 11:59 AM, Jonathan wrote:
>>
>>
>> The Taliban have learned how nature works, how to wield the power of
>> nature as if they were gods.
>>
>> And as we're witnessing right now, not even the most powerful nation
>> this planet has ever seen can stand in Her way.
> [snip]
>
> Do you have any good reason for putting every single sentence in its own
> paragraph? It makes your messages extremely tedious to read.
>

Thanks for the feedback, I thought it might make
it easier to read.

--
BIG LIE From Wiki - "The German expression was coined by Adolf Hitler
when he dictated his 1925 book Mein Kampf, to describe the use of a lie
so *colossal* that no one would believe that someone "could have the
impudence to distort the truth so infamously."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_lie

On 8/18/2021 3:50 PM, Robert Carnegie wrote:
> ner lbh fher gung vf gur ceboyrz
>

The Butterfly Effect: Everything You Need to Know About This Powerful
Mental Model

"One theoretician declared, “The basic idea of Western science
is that you don’t have to take into account the falling
of a leaf on some planet in another galaxy when you’re trying
to account for the motion of a billiard ball on a pool table
on earth.”

Lorenz’s findings were revolutionary because they proved this
assumption to be entirely false.
https://fs.blog/2017/08/the-butterfly-effect/

Why is the above true? Because in naturally evolving
systems the initial conditions are largely irrelevant
since self organization creates it's own ideal initial
conditions from a random soup of disorder.

And more importantly it's in HOW THE PARTS INTERACT
that causes a system to self-organize NOT WHAT THE
PARTS ARE. So one doesn't need to know the part detail
but instead how the parts interact with the other parts.

This discovery means that since the physical details of
the parts don't really matter, all evolving systems can be
modeled with a single science, whether the universe, life
or even ideas. A universal theory of evolution not limited
to only biology.

Darwin on steroids. Everything evolves, not just life.

1.2 Definition of Self-Organization

The essence of self-organization is that system structure often
appears without explicit pressure or involvement from outside
the system. In other words, the constraints on form (i.e.
organization) of interest to us are internal to the system,
resulting from the interactions among the components and
usually /independent of the physical nature/ of those
components.

Many natural systems show organization (e.g. galaxies, planets,
chemical compounds, cells, organisms and societies).
Traditional scientific fields attempt to explain these
features by referencing the micro properties or laws
applicable to their component parts, for example gravitation
or chemical bonds.

Yet we can also approach the subject in a very different way,
looking instead for system properties applicable to all
such collections of parts, regardless of size or nature.
https://naturalorder.info/self-organizingsystems.html#1.1

--
BIG LIE From Wiki - "The German expression was coined by Adolf Hitler
when he dictated his 1925 book Mein Kampf, to describe the use of a lie
so *colossal* that no one would believe that someone "could have the
impudence to distort the truth so infamously."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_lie

On Wed, 18 Aug 2021 09:46:38 -0700 (PDT), Ross Presser
<rpresser@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Tuesday, August 17, 2021 at 12:29:03 PM UTC-4, Jonathan wrote:
>> On 8/17/2021 11:59 AM, Jonathan wrote:
>>
>>
>> The Taliban have learned how nature works, how to wield the power of
>> nature as if they were gods.
>>
>> And as we're witnessing right now, not even the most powerful nation
>> this planet has ever seen can stand in Her way.
>[snip]
>
>Do you have any good reason for putting every single sentence in its own
>paragraph? It makes your messages extremely tedious to read.

A lot of us find them extremely tedious to read, regardless of how
many sentences each paragraph has -- or would if we could force
ourselves to actually read them.

Our eyes glaze over and, the next thing we know, we are looking at the
next message.
--
"I begin to envy Petronius."
"I have envied him long since."