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arts / alt.history.what-if / Italy remains neutral in World War I

SubjectAuthor
* Italy remains neutral in World War IWolfBear
`* Re: Italy remains neutral in World War IGraham Truesdale
 +- Re: Italy remains neutral in World War IWolfBear
 `* Re: Italy remains neutral in World War ISolomonW
  `* Re: Italy remains neutral in World War IGraham Truesdale
   +* Re: Italy remains neutral in World War ISolomonW
   |`* Re: Italy remains neutral in World War IGraham Truesdale
   | `- Re: Italy remains neutral in World War IWolfBear
   `* Re: Italy remains neutral in World War IWolfBear
    `* Re: Italy remains neutral in World War IRich Rostrom
     `- Re: Italy remains neutral in World War IWolfBear

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Italy remains neutral in World War I

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Subject: Italy remains neutral in World War I
From: m4j...@gmail.com (WolfBear)
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 by: WolfBear - Fri, 21 May 2021 02:46 UTC

What if Italy would have remained neutral in World War I? Specifically, I am thinking of having Italy accept some kind of territorial compensation from Austria-Hungary--likely Trentino and *maybe* some Italian concessions in Albania (territorial or otherwise) but probably not South Tyrol, Trieste, Istria, or Fiume--in exchange for having Italy continue to remain neutral in World War I. By 1915, it was clear that World War I had already stalemated and thus a quick war was VERY far from actually being guaranteed. So, why not have Italy take this deal and either stick to it if the CPs fail to be completely and totally crushed or, alternatively, backstab Austria-Hungary at the very last minute if it will ever look like Austria-Hungary is still collapsing--thus allowing Italy to expand much more at Austria-Hungary's expense, but with astronomically fewer casualties in comparison to real life.

Seems like a VERY good deal for Italy in hindsight, no? And it might also prevent allegations of a mutilated victory since hundreds of thousands of young Italian men would not have shed their blood in vain in this TL. So, possibly no Mussolini rise to power in Italy in this TL--as in, ever--right? If so, does this mean that there is not going to be any Italian entry into World War II in this scenario and that the Italian monarchy would actually survive up to the present-day in this TL?

Thoughts on all of this?

Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I

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Subject: Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I
From: graham.t...@gmail.com (Graham Truesdale)
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 by: Graham Truesdale - Fri, 21 May 2021 18:00 UTC

On Friday, 21 May 2021 at 03:46:44 UTC+1, WolfBear wrote:
> What if Italy would have remained neutral in World War I? Specifically, I am thinking of having Italy accept some kind of territorial compensation from Austria-Hungary--likely Trentino and *maybe* some Italian concessions in Albania (territorial or otherwise) but probably not South Tyrol, Trieste, Istria, or Fiume--in exchange for having Italy continue to remain neutral in World War I. By 1915, it was clear that World War I had already stalemated and thus a quick war was VERY far from actually being guaranteed. So, why not have Italy take this deal and either stick to it if the CPs fail to be completely and totally crushed or, alternatively, backstab Austria-Hungary at the very last minute if it will ever look like Austria-Hungary is still collapsing--thus allowing Italy to expand much more at Austria-Hungary's expense, but with astronomically fewer casualties in comparison to real life.
>
> Seems like a VERY good deal for Italy in hindsight, no? And it might also prevent allegations of a mutilated victory since hundreds of thousands of young Italian men would not have shed their blood in vain in this TL. So, possibly no Mussolini rise to power in Italy in this TL--as in, ever--right? If so, does this mean that there is not going to be any Italian entry into World War II in this scenario and that the Italian monarchy would actually survive up to the present-day in this TL?
>
> Thoughts on all of this?
>
Part of the pre-WWI boundary between Austria and Italy is at https://upload..wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e0/Austrian_Littoral_1897.jpg As I have pointed out before - https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=N8T_ts4kDroC&pg=PT136&lpg=PT136&dq=%22impotent+fury+of+the+Austro%22&source=bl&ots=9GIPXkgXPW&sig=ACfU3U3fVxK_zbNrciTtgwCeMqcImWXJDg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjNkvKKqNvwAhWIa8AKHaeYAB8Q6AEwAHoECAIQAw#v=onepage&q=%22impotent%20fury%20of%20the%20Austro%22&f=false -
"The Germans offered [Italy] Austrian territory, Tyrol and Trieste, if she would remain neutral, to the impotent fury of the Austro-Hungarian Government." I assume that this offer also included Trentino, which would otherwise have been a landlocked Austrian enclave within Italy. It looks as if the Italian frontier would have been something like the present-day one - i.e. including Trentino, South Tyrol and Trieste, but not Istria or Fiume.

It would have been easy for Mussolini or someone like him to have told the Italian people post-WWI that, if only their government had taken them into WWI, they would have ended up with everything that the Republic of Venice had had in 1700 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Venice#/media/File:The_Republic_of_Venice_.png The mob always believes demagogues who tell it what it wants to hear - especially as no-one can disprove their claims of what would have happened.

Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I

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Subject: Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I
From: m4j...@gmail.com (WolfBear)
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 by: WolfBear - Fri, 21 May 2021 20:13 UTC

On Friday, May 21, 2021 at 11:00:18 AM UTC-7, Graham Truesdale wrote:
> On Friday, 21 May 2021 at 03:46:44 UTC+1, WolfBear wrote:
> > What if Italy would have remained neutral in World War I? Specifically, I am thinking of having Italy accept some kind of territorial compensation from Austria-Hungary--likely Trentino and *maybe* some Italian concessions in Albania (territorial or otherwise) but probably not South Tyrol, Trieste, Istria, or Fiume--in exchange for having Italy continue to remain neutral in World War I. By 1915, it was clear that World War I had already stalemated and thus a quick war was VERY far from actually being guaranteed. So, why not have Italy take this deal and either stick to it if the CPs fail to be completely and totally crushed or, alternatively, backstab Austria-Hungary at the very last minute if it will ever look like Austria-Hungary is still collapsing--thus allowing Italy to expand much more at Austria-Hungary's expense, but with astronomically fewer casualties in comparison to real life.
> >
> > Seems like a VERY good deal for Italy in hindsight, no? And it might also prevent allegations of a mutilated victory since hundreds of thousands of young Italian men would not have shed their blood in vain in this TL. So, possibly no Mussolini rise to power in Italy in this TL--as in, ever--right? If so, does this mean that there is not going to be any Italian entry into World War II in this scenario and that the Italian monarchy would actually survive up to the present-day in this TL?
> >
> > Thoughts on all of this?
> >
> Part of the pre-WWI boundary between Austria and Italy is at https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e0/Austrian_Littoral_1897.jpg As I have pointed out before - https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=N8T_ts4kDroC&pg=PT136&lpg=PT136&dq=%22impotent+fury+of+the+Austro%22&source=bl&ots=9GIPXkgXPW&sig=ACfU3U3fVxK_zbNrciTtgwCeMqcImWXJDg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjNkvKKqNvwAhWIa8AKHaeYAB8Q6AEwAHoECAIQAw#v=onepage&q=%22impotent%20fury%20of%20the%20Austro%22&f=false -
> "The Germans offered [Italy] Austrian territory, Tyrol and Trieste, if she would remain neutral, to the impotent fury of the Austro-Hungarian Government." I assume that this offer also included Trentino, which would otherwise have been a landlocked Austrian enclave within Italy. It looks as if the Italian frontier would have been something like the present-day one - i.e. including Trentino, South Tyrol and Trieste, but not Istria or Fiume.
>
> It would have been easy for Mussolini or someone like him to have told the Italian people post-WWI that, if only their government had taken them into WWI, they would have ended up with everything that the Republic of Venice had had in 1700 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Venice#/media/File:The_Republic_of_Venice_.png The mob always believes demagogues who tell it what it wants to hear - especially as no-one can disprove their claims of what would have happened.

But would Italians have actually wanted to shed the necessary blood for this? Because they could see by the end of the war that had they entered WWI in 1915, they would have very likely lost the lives of hundreds of thousands of their young men.

Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I

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From: Solom...@citi.com (SolomonW)
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Subject: Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I
Date: Mon, 24 May 2021 20:17:27 +1000
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 by: SolomonW - Mon, 24 May 2021 10:17 UTC

On Fri, 21 May 2021 11:00:16 -0700 (PDT), Graham Truesdale wrote:

> It would have been easy for Mussolini or someone like him to have told the Italian people post-WWI that, if only their government had taken them into WWI, they would have ended up with everything that the Republic of Venice had had in 1700 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Venice#/media/File:The_Republic_of_Venice_.png The mob always believes demagogues who tell it what it wants to hear - especially as no-one can disprove their claims of what would have happened.

Would Mussolini come to power if Italy does not go to war?

Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I

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Subject: Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I
From: graham.t...@gmail.com (Graham Truesdale)
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 by: Graham Truesdale - Mon, 24 May 2021 17:52 UTC

On Monday, 24 May 2021 at 11:17:28 UTC+1, SolomonW wrote:
> On Fri, 21 May 2021 11:00:16 -0700 (PDT), Graham Truesdale wrote:
>
> > It would have been easy for Mussolini or someone like him to have told the Italian people post-WWI that, if only their government had taken them into WWI, they would have ended up with everything that the Republic of Venice had had in 1700 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Venice#/media/File:The_Republic_of_Venice_.png The mob always believes demagogues who tell it what it wants to hear - especially as no-one can disprove their claims of what would have happened.
> Would Mussolini come to power if Italy does not go to war?
>
Primo de Rivera came to power in Spain, despite it not going to war. The King called him 'my Mussolini'.

Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I

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 by: SolomonW - Tue, 25 May 2021 06:28 UTC

On Mon, 24 May 2021 10:52:04 -0700 (PDT), Graham Truesdale wrote:

> On Monday, 24 May 2021 at 11:17:28 UTC+1, SolomonW wrote:
>> On Fri, 21 May 2021 11:00:16 -0700 (PDT), Graham Truesdale wrote:
>>
>>> It would have been easy for Mussolini or someone like him to have told the Italian people post-WWI that, if only their government had taken them into WWI, they would have ended up with everything that the Republic of Venice had had in 1700 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Venice#/media/File:The_Republic_of_Venice_.png The mob always believes demagogues who tell it what it wants to hear - especially as no-one can disprove their claims of what would have happened.
>> Would Mussolini come to power if Italy does not go to war?
>>
> Primo de Rivera came to power in Spain, despite it not going to war. The King called him 'my Mussolini'.

He came to power as a military leader in a coup.

Mussolini came to power through the political processes.

Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I

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Subject: Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I
From: graham.t...@gmail.com (Graham Truesdale)
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 by: Graham Truesdale - Tue, 25 May 2021 20:33 UTC

On Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 07:28:02 UTC+1, SolomonW wrote:
> On Mon, 24 May 2021 10:52:04 -0700 (PDT), Graham Truesdale wrote:
>
> > On Monday, 24 May 2021 at 11:17:28 UTC+1, SolomonW wrote:
> >> On Fri, 21 May 2021 11:00:16 -0700 (PDT), Graham Truesdale wrote:
> >>
> >>> It would have been easy for Mussolini or someone like him to have told the Italian people post-WWI that, if only their government had taken them into WWI, they would have ended up with everything that the Republic of Venice had had in 1700 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Venice#/media/File:The_Republic_of_Venice_.png The mob always believes demagogues who tell it what it wants to hear - especially as no-one can disprove their claims of what would have happened.
> >> Would Mussolini come to power if Italy does not go to war?
> >>
> > Primo de Rivera came to power in Spain, despite it not going to war. The King called him 'my Mussolini'.
> He came to power as a military leader in a coup.
>
> Mussolini came to power through the political processes.
>
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_on_Rome - some combination of a political process and a coup.

Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I

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Subject: Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I
From: m4j...@gmail.com (WolfBear)
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 by: WolfBear - Thu, 27 May 2021 08:02 UTC

On Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 1:33:57 PM UTC-7, Graham Truesdale wrote:
> On Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 07:28:02 UTC+1, SolomonW wrote:
> > On Mon, 24 May 2021 10:52:04 -0700 (PDT), Graham Truesdale wrote:
> >
> > > On Monday, 24 May 2021 at 11:17:28 UTC+1, SolomonW wrote:
> > >> On Fri, 21 May 2021 11:00:16 -0700 (PDT), Graham Truesdale wrote:
> > >>
> > >>> It would have been easy for Mussolini or someone like him to have told the Italian people post-WWI that, if only their government had taken them into WWI, they would have ended up with everything that the Republic of Venice had had in 1700 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Venice#/media/File:The_Republic_of_Venice_.png The mob always believes demagogues who tell it what it wants to hear - especially as no-one can disprove their claims of what would have happened.
> > >> Would Mussolini come to power if Italy does not go to war?
> > >>
> > > Primo de Rivera came to power in Spain, despite it not going to war. The King called him 'my Mussolini'.
> > He came to power as a military leader in a coup.
> >
> > Mussolini came to power through the political processes.
> >
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_on_Rome - some combination of a political process and a coup.

Strong-arming the weak-willed Italian King.

Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I

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Subject: Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I
From: m4j...@gmail.com (WolfBear)
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 by: WolfBear - Sat, 5 Jun 2021 02:29 UTC

On Monday, May 24, 2021 at 10:52:05 AM UTC-7, Graham Truesdale wrote:
> On Monday, 24 May 2021 at 11:17:28 UTC+1, SolomonW wrote:
> > On Fri, 21 May 2021 11:00:16 -0700 (PDT), Graham Truesdale wrote:
> >
> > > It would have been easy for Mussolini or someone like him to have told the Italian people post-WWI that, if only their government had taken them into WWI, they would have ended up with everything that the Republic of Venice had had in 1700 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Venice#/media/File:The_Republic_of_Venice_.png The mob always believes demagogues who tell it what it wants to hear - especially as no-one can disprove their claims of what would have happened.
> > Would Mussolini come to power if Italy does not go to war?
> >
> Primo de Rivera came to power in Spain, despite it not going to war. The King called him 'my Mussolini'.

Yes, but Spaniards still had memories of the defeat of 1898 back then.

Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I

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From: rrost...@comcast.net (Rich Rostrom)
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Subject: Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I
Date: Sat, 5 Jun 2021 12:53:04 -0500
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Sat, 5 Jun 2021 17:53 UTC

On 6/4/21 9:29 PM, WolfBear wrote:
> Yes, but Spaniards still had memories of the defeat of 1898 back then.

1898 was not a big deal by 1923.

The on-going Rif War in Morocco was. Spain suffered almost
as many dead in the 1921 battle of Annual and subsequent
massacres as in the entire 1898 war.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I

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Subject: Re: Italy remains neutral in World War I
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 by: WolfBear - Sat, 19 Jun 2021 06:18 UTC

On Saturday, June 5, 2021 at 10:53:08 AM UTC-7, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> On 6/4/21 9:29 PM, WolfBear wrote:
> > Yes, but Spaniards still had memories of the defeat of 1898 back then.
> 1898 was not a big deal by 1923.
>
> The on-going Rif War in Morocco was. Spain suffered almost
> as many dead in the 1921 battle of Annual and subsequent
> massacres as in the entire 1898 war.
>
> --
> Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
> --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Yep, I've heard about the Battle of Annual before.

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