On 5/26/21 8:42 PM, edstas...@gmail.com wrote:
> What if during the Doolittle Raid on April 18th 1942, Japanese Emperor
> Hirohito and his family are killed by a couple of stray bombs?

This incompetence by the
raiders, who were ordered to attack other targets far from
the Imperial Palace.

It also requires a Magic Bullet - the raid killed 50 people out
the 8 million or so in the Tokyo area. So the odds on killing
Hirohito would be about 1 in 160,000.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

> Rich Rostrom
> > Ed Stasiak
> >
> > What if during the Doolittle Raid on April 18th 1942, Japanese Emperor
> > Hirohito and his family are killed by a couple of stray bombs?
>
> This incompetence by the raiders, who were ordered to attack other targets
> far from the Imperial Palace.
>
> It also requires a Magic Bullet - the raid killed 50 people out the 8 million
> or so in the Tokyo area. So the odds on killing Hirohito would be about
> 1 in 160,000.

Perfectly possible, nothing requiring ASBs. Say one of the B-25s goes
a bit off course, gets hit with AA fire and it and its bombs goes down
and hits the Imperial Palace.

"Although some B-25s encountered light antiaircraft fire and a few enemy
fighters (made up of Ki-45s and prototype Ki-61s, the latter being mistaken
for Bf 109s) over Japan, no bomber was shot down. Only the B-25 of 1st
Lt. Richard O. Joyce received any battle damage, minor hits from anti-
aircraft fire.[34] B-25 No. 4, piloted by 1st Lt. Everett W. Holstrom, jettisoned
its bombs before reaching its target when it came under attack by fighters
after its gun turret malfunctioned.[36]"

On 5/27/21 8:20 AM, edstas...@gmail.com wrote:
> Perfectly possible, nothing requiring ASBs. Say one of the B-25s goes
> a bit off course, gets hit with AA fire and it and its bombs goes down
> and hits the Imperial Palace.

Metro Tokyo is about 500 sq km; that is 50,000 hectares.
The Emperor's residence in the Imperial Palace occupied one
hectare. Some B-26 is damaged and crashes somewhere at random.
50,000 to 1 against it being that particular location. And its
bombload is only 2,000 lb - not enough to obliterate a large
structure and kill everyone inside.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

> Rich Rostrom
> > Ed Stasiak
> >
> > Perfectly possible, nothing requiring ASBs. Say one of the B-25s goes
> > a bit off course, gets hit with AA fire and it and its bombs goes down
> > and hits the Imperial Palace.
>
> Metro Tokyo is about 500 sq km; that is 50,000 hectares.
> The Emperor's residence in the Imperial Palace occupied one
> hectare. Some B-26 is damaged and crashes somewhere at random.
> 50,000 to 1 against it being that particular location. And its
> bombload is only 2,000 lb - not enough to obliterate a large
> structure and kill everyone inside.

And yet still perfectly possible.

"edstas...@gmail.com" <edstasiak1067@gmail.com> on Thu, 27 May 2021
14:21:26 -0700 (PDT) typed in alt.history.what-if the following:
>> Rich Rostrom
>> > Ed Stasiak
>> >
>> > Perfectly possible, nothing requiring ASBs. Say one of the B-25s goes
>> > a bit off course, gets hit with AA fire and it and its bombs goes down
>> > and hits the Imperial Palace.
>>
>> Metro Tokyo is about 500 sq km; that is 50,000 hectares.
>> The Emperor's residence in the Imperial Palace occupied one
>> hectare. Some B-26 is damaged and crashes somewhere at random.
>> 50,000 to 1 against it being that particular location. And its
>> bombload is only 2,000 lb - not enough to obliterate a large
>> structure and kill everyone inside.
>
>And yet still perfectly possible.

As the old saw has it: "the odds are a million to one, which
occurs about 9 times out of 10."
--
pyotr filipivich
"History rarely repeats herself" is the cliche. In reality she just
lets fly with a frying pan yelling "Why weren't you listening the first time!?"

On Thu, 27 May 2021 06:20:57 -0700 (PDT), "edstas...@gmail.com"
<edstasiak1067@gmail.com> wrote:

>> It also requires a Magic Bullet - the raid killed 50 people out the 8 million
>> or so in the Tokyo area. So the odds on killing Hirohito would be about
>> 1 in 160,000.
>
>Perfectly possible, nothing requiring ASBs. Say one of the B-25s goes
>a bit off course, gets hit with AA fire and it and its bombs goes down
>and hits the Imperial Palace.

That's about what it WOULD require as when the USAAF started hitting
Tokyo they were given firm orders to avoid the Imperial Palace.

On Thu, 27 May 2021 21:22:00 -0700, pyotr filipivich wrote:

> "edstas...@gmail.com" <edstasiak1067@gmail.com> on Thu, 27 May 2021
> 14:21:26 -0700 (PDT) typed in alt.history.what-if the following:
>>> Rich Rostrom
>>> > Ed Stasiak
>>> >
>>> > Perfectly possible, nothing requiring ASBs. Say one of the B-25s goes
>>> > a bit off course, gets hit with AA fire and it and its bombs goes down
>>> > and hits the Imperial Palace.
>>>
>>> Metro Tokyo is about 500 sq km; that is 50,000 hectares.
>>> The Emperor's residence in the Imperial Palace occupied one
>>> hectare. Some B-26 is damaged and crashes somewhere at random.
>>> 50,000 to 1 against it being that particular location. And its
>>> bombload is only 2,000 lb - not enough to obliterate a large
>>> structure and kill everyone inside.
>>
>>And yet still perfectly possible.
>
> As the old saw has it: "the odds are a million to one, which
> occurs about 9 times out of 10."

It is called the "Improbability Principle". According to it, rare events
are commonplace as there are heaps of factors we experience almost every
day, and so it is estimated that we all get a miracle roughly once every
month.

On Fri, 28 May 2021 19:47:04 -0700, The Horny Goat wrote:

> On Thu, 27 May 2021 06:20:57 -0700 (PDT), "edstas...@gmail.com"
> <edstasiak1067@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>> It also requires a Magic Bullet - the raid killed 50 people out the 8 million
>>> or so in the Tokyo area. So the odds on killing Hirohito would be about
>>> 1 in 160,000.
>>
>>Perfectly possible, nothing requiring ASBs. Say one of the B-25s goes
>>a bit off course, gets hit with AA fire and it and its bombs goes down
>>and hits the Imperial Palace.
>
> That's about what it WOULD require as when the USAAF started hitting
> Tokyo they were given firm orders to avoid the Imperial Palace.

During the Second World War the Allies repeatedly bombed Switzerland by
mistake.

On 5/27/21 4:21 PM, edstas...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> And yet still perfectly possible.
>

Only in the sense of "not physically impossible".

Just as it was "possible" for Hitler's plane from
Munich to Berlin (on the evening before the anniversary
of the Beer Hall Putsch, when he left early and avoided
Elser's bomb) to get lost in the dark and fog, and end
up landing in France.

Or it was "possible" for a zeppelin bomber in WW I to
destroy Buckingham Place and wipe out the Royal Family.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Rich Rostrom <rrostrom@comcast.net> on Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:13:04 -0500
typed in alt.history.what-if the following:
>On 5/27/21 4:21 PM, edstas...@gmail.com wrote:
>>
>> And yet still perfectly possible.
>>
>
>Only in the sense of "not physically impossible".
>
>Just as it was "possible" for Hitler's plane from
>Munich to Berlin (on the evening before the anniversary
>of the Beer Hall Putsch, when he left early and avoided
>Elser's bomb) to get lost in the dark and fog, and end
>up landing in France.
>
>Or it was "possible" for a zeppelin bomber in WW I to
>destroy Buckingham Place and wipe out the Royal Family.

Yes, and ...?

It is "alt.history.what-if" after all. Some possible things are
more plausible than others, but that does not necessarily rule them
out. History is full of incidents which if t'were played out upon a
stage, one would find it most improbable.

--
pyotr filipivich
"History rarely repeats herself" is the cliche. In reality she just
lets fly with a frying pan yelling "Why weren't you listening the first time!?"

On Mon, 07 Jun 2021 07:37:39 -0700, pyotr filipivich
<phamp@mindspring.com> wrote:

>>Or it was "possible" for a zeppelin bomber in WW I to
>>destroy Buckingham Place and wipe out the Royal Family.
>
> Yes, and ...?
>
> It is "alt.history.what-if" after all. Some possible things are
>more plausible than others, but that does not necessarily rule them
>out. History is full of incidents which if t'were played out upon a
>stage, one would find it most improbable.

Absolutely - and not all of these changed the world.

For instance Bush 41 barfed on the Japanese prime minister (he blamed
the sushi!) in January 1991 and Japan and the US are still on good
terms!

The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> on Mon, 07 Jun 2021 19:42:10 -0700
typed in alt.history.what-if the following:
>On Mon, 07 Jun 2021 07:37:39 -0700, pyotr filipivich
><phamp@mindspring.com> wrote:
>
>>>Or it was "possible" for a zeppelin bomber in WW I to
>>>destroy Buckingham Place and wipe out the Royal Family.
>>
>> Yes, and ...?
>>
>> It is "alt.history.what-if" after all. Some possible things are
>>more plausible than others, but that does not necessarily rule them
>>out. History is full of incidents which if t'were played out upon a
>>stage, one would find it most improbable.
>
>Absolutely - and not all of these changed the world.
>
>For instance Bush 41 barfed on the Japanese prime minister (he blamed
>the sushi!) in January 1991 and Japan and the US are still on good
>terms!

In _this_ Timeline ...

--
pyotr filipivich
"History rarely repeats herself" is the cliche. In reality she just
lets fly with a frying pan yelling "Why weren't you listening the first time!?"