Napoleon III decided that at the start of the Austro-Prussian War to
support the Austrians. Accordingly, a large French army, together with the
support of the Southern German states, attacks Prussia.

Prussia is now fighting a war on three fronts. Italy on two fronts.

On 5/15/21 4:16 AM, SolomonW wrote:
> Napoleon III decided that at the start of the Austro-Prussian War to
> support the Austrians. Accordingly, a large French army, together with the
> support of the Southern German states, attacks Prussia.
>
> Prussia is now fighting a war on three fronts. Italy on two fronts.

Two or more questions.

Could you be more specific on what is happening in Italy?

This looks like Napoleon III is not following through with
his promises to the King of Savoy. He may not be able to
absorb Nice so easily.

Would it be relatively easy for France to send troops to
Austria through Bavaria? Is the Austrian rail network
going to be useless to the French?

Most critically, what is Hanover and the U.K. going to
be doing in this scenario? Is it likely that France is
going to avoid sending troops through the Rhineland in
order to avoid offending the U.K.? Is the U.K. not going
to care very much what happens in Hanover by this period
of time?

On Tue, 25 May 2021 02:33:20 -0700, Trolidous <x@troll.org> wrote:

>Most critically, what is Hanover and the U.K. going to
>be doing in this scenario? Is it likely that France is
>going to avoid sending troops through the Rhineland in
>order to avoid offending the U.K.? Is the U.K. not going
>to care very much what happens in Hanover by this period
>of time?

I would be highly surprised if the UK cares that much about Hanover 30
years after losing it at Victoria's ascension.

I suppose if hypothetically France storms through Hanover looting
raping and pillaging Britain would mind but I don't see French troops
behaving (in 1860-70) the way French troops typically behaved in the
Napoleonic era (which was still much better than Nazi and Soviet
troops 3 generations later but...)

On the other hand France had a relatively republican vision of itself
by 1860 (Napoleon III notwithstanding) and wasn't big on bad behaviour
by its troops in the field.

On 5/25/2021 3:33 AM, Trolidous wrote:
> On 5/15/21 4:16 AM, SolomonW wrote:
>> Napoleon III decided that at the start of the Austro-Prussian War to
>> support the Austrians. Accordingly, a large French army, together with
>> the
>> support of the Southern German states, attacks Prussia.
>>
>> Prussia is now fighting a war on three fronts. Italy on two fronts.
>
> Two or more questions.
>
> Could you be more specific on what is happening in Italy?
>
> This looks like Napoleon III is not following through with
> his promises to the King of Savoy.  He may not be able to
> absorb Nice so easily.
>
> Would it be relatively easy for France to send troops to
> Austria through Bavaria?  Is the Austrian rail network
> going to be useless to the French?
>
> Most critically, what is Hanover and the U.K. going to
> be doing in this scenario?  Is it likely that France is
> going to avoid sending troops through the Rhineland in
> order to avoid offending the U.K.?  Is the U.K. not going
> to care very much what happens in Hanover by this period
> of time?
>
>

I'm not Wolfbear (thank HEAVEN!), but I think you may have this one
backwards.

Hanover, remember, was the rare North German state that was a strong
supporter of the Empire that was already there far to its southeast.
It's why there was no Kingdom of Hanover after confederation of the
*German* Empire; Prussia punished a losing state by conquering it.

The only way that I can see your scenario being an issue of "avoid
offending the UK" is if for some reason there were to be rioting in the
streets of London at the idea of actually *helping out* another Napoleon
(or, alternatively, giving the Catholics a much stronger hand in the
Germanies), and I'm not sure if that's a possibility or not. If it's
NOT, then NIII has the freest hand on the Continent that any non-British
person has ever had.

Certainly a few years later IOTL, the Emperor's son was treated as high
nobility or even displaced royalty when his mother fled to the
UK...though of course that SHOULD never have to happen in TTL, because
in THEORY the Franco-Austrian alliance shouldn't be able to lose that war.

If it DOES, then NIII is going to be deposed prematurely. Not sure how
much else changes except dates in that case; the Prince Imperial has
already been around for ten years and I honestly don't even think
anything is in place to keep him from identifying so strongly as an
at-least-temporary subject of Victoria's that he can avoid catching an
assegai in '79.

If it doesn't, then there's no German Empire--EVER--that has a capital
other than Vienna. Hungary likely remains restless, but I'm not sure it
can even force the Ausgleich--if it can't, then it likely never regains
independence to this day. There's no Great War--EITHER half of it--in
any form we'd be familiar with. PRUSSIA HERSELF may be dissolved; at the
very least, the right to call themselves "Kings in Prussia" is likely
stripped from the Brandenburgers, though I strongly doubt that you see
East Prussia granted to the Russians instead and granting it to the
Habsburgs would, I THINK, mean that they'd have an exclave that could
only be reached by land through Russia (well, until such time as the
entire area of the Germanies is officially under Habsburg control rather
than just effectively). That's likely unsatisfactory to *both* these
surviving Eastern Powers

As for "not following through on promises to Savoy", at this point you
might even be looking at trying to strengthen the Papal States, perhaps
even to the point that if Italy is to ever be unified, it would have to
be under THEIR control (or POSSIBLY to trying to help the Habsburgs
conquer the entire country, but that means the lasting enmity of the
Pope, because I doubt Franz Josef wants two discontiguous regions, and
the Pope will despise any nation that removes the Papal States from the
map). But there's no question, since the treaties that NIII had with
Vittorio Emmanuel included helping him to wrest the Veneto from
Austria-Hungary, that an alliance with Italy is now an impossibility,
and it's not out of the question that NIII will attack Nice as soon as
it's clear Prussia's no threat, in order to just *seize* it without any
treaty obligations left on either side.

If he DOESN'T think he can get Nice by force of arms, then Wolf has
probably created yet another timeline that would require ASB involvement
to get started. NIII DOES inisist on that area being French by
possession as well as by dialect. I suppose that if you dropped a late-
C.XX history book in front of his face and got him to read about the
Great War, he _MIGHT_ become willing to leave Nice in Savoyard hands,
but I can't be sure that even knowing how much he's setting up the Great
War would be enough to keep NIII from wanting Nice and still thinking
the least-damaging-to-his-army wayu of doing so was the trade from OTL.

--
Chrysi Cat
1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
Transgoddess, quick to anger. [she/her. Misgender and die].
Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!

On Wednesday, 26 May 2021 at 11:32:14 UTC+1, Chrysi Cat wrote:
> On 5/25/2021 3:33 AM, Trolidous wrote:
> > On 5/15/21 4:16 AM, SolomonW wrote:
> >> Napoleon III decided that at the start of the Austro-Prussian War to
> >> support the Austrians. Accordingly, a large French army, together with
> >> the
> >> support of the Southern German states, attacks Prussia.
> >>
> >> Prussia is now fighting a war on three fronts. Italy on two fronts.
> >
> > Two or more questions.
> >
> > Could you be more specific on what is happening in Italy?
> >
> > This looks like Napoleon III is not following through with
> > his promises to the King of Savoy. He may not be able to
> > absorb Nice so easily.
> >
> > Would it be relatively easy for France to send troops to
> > Austria through Bavaria? Is the Austrian rail network
> > going to be useless to the French?
> >
> > Most critically, what is Hanover and the U.K. going to
> > be doing in this scenario? Is it likely that France is
> > going to avoid sending troops through the Rhineland in
> > order to avoid offending the U.K.? Is the U.K. not going
> > to care very much what happens in Hanover by this period
> > of time?
> >
> >
> I'm not Wolfbear (thank HEAVEN!), but I think you may have this one
> backwards.
>
> Hanover, remember, was the rare North German state that was a strong
> supporter of the Empire that was already there far to its southeast.
> It's why there was no Kingdom of Hanover after confederation of the
> *German* Empire; Prussia punished a losing state by conquering it.
>
> The only way that I can see your scenario being an issue of "avoid
> offending the UK" is if for some reason there were to be rioting in the
> streets of London at the idea of actually *helping out* another Napoleon
> (or, alternatively, giving the Catholics a much stronger hand in the
> Germanies), and I'm not sure if that's a possibility or not. If it's
> NOT, then NIII has the freest hand on the Continent that any non-British
> person has ever had.
>
> Certainly a few years later IOTL, the Emperor's son was treated as high
> nobility or even displaced royalty when his mother fled to the
> UK...though of course that SHOULD never have to happen in TTL, because
> in THEORY the Franco-Austrian alliance shouldn't be able to lose that war..
>
> If it DOES, then NIII is going to be deposed prematurely. Not sure how
> much else changes except dates in that case; the Prince Imperial has
> already been around for ten years and I honestly don't even think
> anything is in place to keep him from identifying so strongly as an
> at-least-temporary subject of Victoria's that he can avoid catching an
> assegai in '79.
>
> If it doesn't, then there's no German Empire--EVER--that has a capital
> other than Vienna. Hungary likely remains restless, but I'm not sure it
> can even force the Ausgleich--if it can't, then it likely never regains
> independence to this day. There's no Great War--EITHER half of it--in
> any form we'd be familiar with. PRUSSIA HERSELF may be dissolved; at the
> very least, the right to call themselves "Kings in Prussia" is likely
> stripped from the Brandenburgers, though I strongly doubt that you see
> East Prussia granted to the Russians instead and granting it to the
> Habsburgs would, I THINK, mean that they'd have an exclave that could
> only be reached by land through Russia (well, until such time as the
> entire area of the Germanies is officially under Habsburg control rather
> than just effectively). That's likely unsatisfactory to *both* these
> surviving Eastern Powers
>
> As for "not following through on promises to Savoy", at this point you
> might even be looking at trying to strengthen the Papal States, perhaps
> even to the point that if Italy is to ever be unified, it would have to
> be under THEIR control (or POSSIBLY to trying to help the Habsburgs
> conquer the entire country, but that means the lasting enmity of the
> Pope, because I doubt Franz Josef wants two discontiguous regions, and
> the Pope will despise any nation that removes the Papal States from the
> map).
>
As far as I can see from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_unification#/media/File:Italian-unification.gif , by the eve of the Austro-Prussian war Italy was already a contiguous state and the Papal States were still on the map. I doubt if Pius IX would have been too upset about [the Kingdom of Italy as of 1866] passing from the Savoyards to the Habsburgs.

On 5/25/21 4:33 AM, Trolidous wrote:
> Most critically, what is Hanover and the U.K. going to
> be doing in this scenario?

Hanover is fighting Prussia. The Hanoverian army even
defeated a Prussian corps before the Prussians overwhelmed
them.

If France invades Rhenish Prussia, their probable target
is to link up with Hanover and support them.

Britain will remain neutral. Britain will certainly not
object to France aiding Hanover.
--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

On 5/26/21 5:32 AM, Chrysi Cat wrote:

> it's not out of the question that NIII will attack Nice as soon as it's
> clear Prussia's no threat, in order to just *seize* it without any
> treaty obligations left on either side.
>
> If he DOESN'T think he can get Nice by force of arms,

France annexed Nice in 1860, under the Treaty of Turin.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

On 5/26/21 4:54 PM, Graham Truesdale wrote:
> As far as I can see from
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_unification#/media/File:Italian-unification.gif,
> by the eve of the Austro-Prussian war Italy was already a
> contiguous state and the Papal States were still on the map. I doubt
> if Pius IX would have been too upset about [the Kingdom of Italy as
> of 1866] passing from the Savoyards to the Habsburgs.

Two-thirds of the Papal States were seized by Piedmont in 1860.
Piedmont stayed out of the area of Rome by agreement with France,
which maintained a garrison there.

The Pope was highly annoyed.

The French garrison was withdrawn in 1870, at the start of the
Franco-Prussian War. Piedmont then marched into Rome. There was
an armed clash at the walls of Rome, with about 300 casualties
(68 killed).

The Pope was _extremely_ annoyed, and refused all contact with
the Italian government. He became known as "the prisoner of the
Vatican", which he never left.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

On Thursday, 27 May 2021 at 13:56:58 UTC+1, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> On 5/26/21 4:54 PM, Graham Truesdale wrote:
> > As far as I can see from
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_unification#/media/File:Italian-unification.gif,
> > by the eve of the Austro-Prussian war Italy was already a
> > contiguous state and the Papal States were still on the map. I doubt
> > if Pius IX would have been too upset about [the Kingdom of Italy as
> > of 1866] passing from the Savoyards to the Habsburgs.
> Two-thirds of the Papal States were seized by Piedmont in 1860.
> Piedmont stayed out of the area of Rome by agreement with France,
> which maintained a garrison there.
>
> The Pope was highly annoyed.
>
> The French garrison was withdrawn in 1870, at the start of the
> Franco-Prussian War. Piedmont then marched into Rome. There was
> an armed clash at the walls of Rome, with about 300 casualties
> (68 killed).
>
> The Pope was _extremely_ annoyed, and refused all contact with
> the Italian government. He became known as "the prisoner of the
> Vatican", which he never left.
>
Indeed. But my point was not about the deprivation of papal territory in either 1860 or 1870, but about a scenario in 1866 where the boundary of the Papal States remains unchanged and the Kingdom of Italy changes hands.

On Wednesday, May 26, 2021 at 3:32:14 AM UTC-7, Chrysi Cat wrote:
> On 5/25/2021 3:33 AM, Trolidous wrote:
> > On 5/15/21 4:16 AM, SolomonW wrote:
> >> Napoleon III decided that at the start of the Austro-Prussian War to
> >> support the Austrians. Accordingly, a large French army, together with
> >> the
> >> support of the Southern German states, attacks Prussia.
> >>
> >> Prussia is now fighting a war on three fronts. Italy on two fronts.
> >
> > Two or more questions.
> >
> > Could you be more specific on what is happening in Italy?
> >
> > This looks like Napoleon III is not following through with
> > his promises to the King of Savoy. He may not be able to
> > absorb Nice so easily.
> >
> > Would it be relatively easy for France to send troops to
> > Austria through Bavaria? Is the Austrian rail network
> > going to be useless to the French?
> >
> > Most critically, what is Hanover and the U.K. going to
> > be doing in this scenario? Is it likely that France is
> > going to avoid sending troops through the Rhineland in
> > order to avoid offending the U.K.? Is the U.K. not going
> > to care very much what happens in Hanover by this period
> > of time?
> >
> >
> I'm not Wolfbear (thank HEAVEN!), but I think you may have this one
> backwards.
>
> Hanover, remember, was the rare North German state that was a strong
> supporter of the Empire that was already there far to its southeast.
> It's why there was no Kingdom of Hanover after confederation of the
> *German* Empire; Prussia punished a losing state by conquering it.
>
> The only way that I can see your scenario being an issue of "avoid
> offending the UK" is if for some reason there were to be rioting in the
> streets of London at the idea of actually *helping out* another Napoleon
> (or, alternatively, giving the Catholics a much stronger hand in the
> Germanies), and I'm not sure if that's a possibility or not. If it's
> NOT, then NIII has the freest hand on the Continent that any non-British
> person has ever had.
>
> Certainly a few years later IOTL, the Emperor's son was treated as high
> nobility or even displaced royalty when his mother fled to the
> UK...though of course that SHOULD never have to happen in TTL, because
> in THEORY the Franco-Austrian alliance shouldn't be able to lose that war.
>
> If it DOES, then NIII is going to be deposed prematurely. Not sure how
> much else changes except dates in that case; the Prince Imperial has
> already been around for ten years and I honestly don't even think
> anything is in place to keep him from identifying so strongly as an
> at-least-temporary subject of Victoria's that he can avoid catching an
> assegai in '79.
>
> If it doesn't, then there's no German Empire--EVER--that has a capital
> other than Vienna. Hungary likely remains restless, but I'm not sure it
> can even force the Ausgleich--if it can't, then it likely never regains
> independence to this day. There's no Great War--EITHER half of it--in
> any form we'd be familiar with. PRUSSIA HERSELF may be dissolved; at the
> very least, the right to call themselves "Kings in Prussia" is likely
> stripped from the Brandenburgers, though I strongly doubt that you see
> East Prussia granted to the Russians instead and granting it to the
> Habsburgs would, I THINK, mean that they'd have an exclave that could
> only be reached by land through Russia (well, until such time as the
> entire area of the Germanies is officially under Habsburg control rather
> than just effectively). That's likely unsatisfactory to *both* these
> surviving Eastern Powers
>
> As for "not following through on promises to Savoy", at this point you
> might even be looking at trying to strengthen the Papal States, perhaps
> even to the point that if Italy is to ever be unified, it would have to
> be under THEIR control (or POSSIBLY to trying to help the Habsburgs
> conquer the entire country, but that means the lasting enmity of the
> Pope, because I doubt Franz Josef wants two discontiguous regions, and
> the Pope will despise any nation that removes the Papal States from the
> map). But there's no question, since the treaties that NIII had with
> Vittorio Emmanuel included helping him to wrest the Veneto from
> Austria-Hungary, that an alliance with Italy is now an impossibility,
> and it's not out of the question that NIII will attack Nice as soon as
> it's clear Prussia's no threat, in order to just *seize* it without any
> treaty obligations left on either side.
>
> If he DOESN'T think he can get Nice by force of arms, then Wolf has
> probably created yet another timeline that would require ASB involvement
> to get started. NIII DOES inisist on that area being French by
> possession as well as by dialect. I suppose that if you dropped a late-
> C.XX history book in front of his face and got him to read about the
> Great War, he _MIGHT_ become willing to leave Nice in Savoyard hands,
> but I can't be sure that even knowing how much he's setting up the Great
> War would be enough to keep NIII from wanting Nice and still thinking
> the least-damaging-to-his-army wayu of doing so was the trade from OTL.
>
> --
> Chrysi Cat
> 1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
> Transgoddess, quick to anger. [she/her. Misgender and die].
> Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!

Why "thank Heaven"?

On 5/27/2021 6:49 AM, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> On 5/26/21 5:32 AM, Chrysi Cat wrote:
>
>> it's not out of the question that NIII will attack Nice as soon as
>> it's clear Prussia's no threat, in order to just *seize* it without
>> any treaty obligations left on either side.
>>
>> If he DOESN'T think he can get Nice by force of arms,
>
> France annexed Nice in 1860, under the Treaty of Turin.
>

Fine. /KEEP/ Nice by force of arms, then.

I'll grant that the explicit terms of Turin/Torino don't involve "help
us seize the Veneto", but I'll also lay money that such assistance was
assumed.

And Piedmont will be lucky to get French *neutrality* and /cannot/ be
France's ally when France is allied with the House of Habsburg.

--
Chrysi Cat
1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
Transgoddess, quick to anger. [she/her. Misgender and die].
Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!