On Monday, October 4, 2021 at 6:27:49 PM UTC-4, J. Clarke wrote:
> On Mon, 4 Oct 2021 06:58:41 -0700 (PDT), "pete...@gmail.com"
> <pete...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >On Monday, October 4, 2021 at 1:00:57 AM UTC-4, Quadibloc wrote:
> >> I remember The High Frontier by Gerard K. O'Neill. In it, he noted that
> >> solar power from space was perhaps the only possible economic
> >> justification for the early stages of building L5 space colonies of the
> >> type he described.
> >
> >That was 45 years ago. Things have changed.
> >
> >1. SpaceX looks likely to drop the cost of getting stuff to space by
> >an order of magnitude or two.
> O'Neill was assuming that NASA was going to achieve $500/lb.
> Correcting for inflation Falcon 9 is _there_.
> >2. PVE panels have crashed in price. in 1977, you paid about $77/watt.
> >Now its around 0.70/watt, a hundred fold less.
> Price of the panels is only part of the cost.

This article about the costs of solar farms gives some helpful BoE
numbers on large solar installations. It does not cover storage,
which can actually be a profit center since you can arbitrage when
you sell you power.

https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what-is-a-solar-farm-do-i-need-one

Pt

On Mon, 4 Oct 2021 17:33:16 -0700 (PDT), "pete...@gmail.com"
<petertrei@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Monday, October 4, 2021 at 6:27:49 PM UTC-4, J. Clarke wrote:
>> On Mon, 4 Oct 2021 06:58:41 -0700 (PDT), "pete...@gmail.com"
>> <pete...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> >On Monday, October 4, 2021 at 1:00:57 AM UTC-4, Quadibloc wrote:
>> >> I remember The High Frontier by Gerard K. O'Neill. In it, he noted that
>> >> solar power from space was perhaps the only possible economic
>> >> justification for the early stages of building L5 space colonies of the
>> >> type he described.
>> >
>> >That was 45 years ago. Things have changed.
>> >
>> >1. SpaceX looks likely to drop the cost of getting stuff to space by
>> >an order of magnitude or two.
>> O'Neill was assuming that NASA was going to achieve $500/lb.
>> Correcting for inflation Falcon 9 is _there_.
>> >2. PVE panels have crashed in price. in 1977, you paid about $77/watt.
>> >Now its around 0.70/watt, a hundred fold less.
>> Price of the panels is only part of the cost.
>
>This article about the costs of solar farms gives some helpful BoE
>numbers on large solar installations. It does not cover storage,
>which can actually be a profit center since you can arbitrage when
>you sell you power.
>
>https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what-is-a-solar-farm-do-i-need-one

If you're talking a national scale solar powered grid with no fossil
fuel use, the ability to "arbitrage when you sell your power" goes
down the crapper. Peak load in winter will be late at night when it's
cold and lots of heat is needed. We don't have that now because most
heat in the US is oil or gas, not electric.

On Monday, October 4, 2021 at 8:56:27 PM UTC-4, J. Clarke wrote:
> On Mon, 4 Oct 2021 17:33:16 -0700 (PDT), "pete...@gmail.com"
> <pete...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >On Monday, October 4, 2021 at 6:27:49 PM UTC-4, J. Clarke wrote:
> >> On Mon, 4 Oct 2021 06:58:41 -0700 (PDT), "pete...@gmail.com"
> >> <pete...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>
> >> >On Monday, October 4, 2021 at 1:00:57 AM UTC-4, Quadibloc wrote:
> >> >> I remember The High Frontier by Gerard K. O'Neill. In it, he noted that
> >> >> solar power from space was perhaps the only possible economic
> >> >> justification for the early stages of building L5 space colonies of the
> >> >> type he described.
> >> >
> >> >That was 45 years ago. Things have changed.
> >> >
> >> >1. SpaceX looks likely to drop the cost of getting stuff to space by
> >> >an order of magnitude or two.
> >> O'Neill was assuming that NASA was going to achieve $500/lb.
> >> Correcting for inflation Falcon 9 is _there_.
> >> >2. PVE panels have crashed in price. in 1977, you paid about $77/watt.
> >> >Now its around 0.70/watt, a hundred fold less.
> >> Price of the panels is only part of the cost.
> >
> >This article about the costs of solar farms gives some helpful BoE
> >numbers on large solar installations. It does not cover storage,
> >which can actually be a profit center since you can arbitrage when
> >you sell you power.
> >
> >https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what-is-a-solar-farm-do-i-need-one
> If you're talking a national scale solar powered grid with no fossil
> fuel use, the ability to "arbitrage when you sell your power" goes
> down the crapper. Peak load in winter will be late at night when it's
> cold and lots of heat is needed. We don't have that now because most
> heat in the US is oil or gas, not electric.

If the electricity price varies over a 24 hour period, and you have storage,
you can arbitrage. The reason it varies is irrelevant.

Lots more home are installing electrically powered heat pumps for
HVAC. Just did so myself. Kept the oil furnace for hot water and
extreme cold.

Pt

On Mon, 4 Oct 2021 18:11:40 -0700 (PDT), "pete...@gmail.com"
<petertrei@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Monday, October 4, 2021 at 8:56:27 PM UTC-4, J. Clarke wrote:
>> On Mon, 4 Oct 2021 17:33:16 -0700 (PDT), "pete...@gmail.com"
>> <pete...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> >On Monday, October 4, 2021 at 6:27:49 PM UTC-4, J. Clarke wrote:
>> >> On Mon, 4 Oct 2021 06:58:41 -0700 (PDT), "pete...@gmail.com"
>> >> <pete...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> >On Monday, October 4, 2021 at 1:00:57 AM UTC-4, Quadibloc wrote:
>> >> >> I remember The High Frontier by Gerard K. O'Neill. In it, he noted that
>> >> >> solar power from space was perhaps the only possible economic
>> >> >> justification for the early stages of building L5 space colonies of the
>> >> >> type he described.
>> >> >
>> >> >That was 45 years ago. Things have changed.
>> >> >
>> >> >1. SpaceX looks likely to drop the cost of getting stuff to space by
>> >> >an order of magnitude or two.
>> >> O'Neill was assuming that NASA was going to achieve $500/lb.
>> >> Correcting for inflation Falcon 9 is _there_.
>> >> >2. PVE panels have crashed in price. in 1977, you paid about $77/watt.
>> >> >Now its around 0.70/watt, a hundred fold less.
>> >> Price of the panels is only part of the cost.
>> >
>> >This article about the costs of solar farms gives some helpful BoE
>> >numbers on large solar installations. It does not cover storage,
>> >which can actually be a profit center since you can arbitrage when
>> >you sell you power.
>> >
>> >https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what-is-a-solar-farm-do-i-need-one
>> If you're talking a national scale solar powered grid with no fossil
>> fuel use, the ability to "arbitrage when you sell your power" goes
>> down the crapper. Peak load in winter will be late at night when it's
>> cold and lots of heat is needed. We don't have that now because most
>> heat in the US is oil or gas, not electric.
>
>If the electricity price varies over a 24 hour period, and you have storage,
>you can arbitrage. The reason it varies is irrelevant.

And if you "arbitrage" in such a manner that people start freezing,
pretty soon the government will take away your power to "arbitrage".

That tactic only works if the stored energy is not actually _needed_.

>Lots more home are installing electrically powered heat pumps for
>HVAC. Just did so myself. Kept the oil furnace for hot water and
>extreme cold.

Using an oil furnace solely to heat water is horribly inefficient.

On Monday, 4 October 2021 at 13:56:24 UTC+1, Bill Gill wrote:
> I recall some science fiction story where there was a tug on the
> transmitter that caused the beam to wander and cause a lot of
> destruction.

In Isaac Asimov's "Reason", which was mentioned,
that was mentioned early as a possibility. They did
it anyway... just how much damage was done in
your story?

In article <e55nlghvss1p9sksgnl1o3qsukbhkhku0e@4ax.com>,
The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:
>On Mon, 04 Oct 2021 21:05:29 +0200, Sjouke Burry
><burrynulnulfour@ppllaanneett.nnll> wrote:
>
>>Getting microwaved from space by high intensity radiowaves
>>is quite unhealthy.
>>Those beams can even set fire to whole citys.
>>Like being inside a huge micowave oven.
>
>Jerry Pournelle wrote extensively in various publications in the 80s
>(Byte magazine among others which is where I found him) on satellite
>based solar power based on assembly in orbit based on materials sent
>from mass drivers on the moon.

He also wrote about how fast and easy it would be to terraform Venus, so
not a particularly reliable source.
--
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