If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?

On Sat, 29 May 2021 14:42:20 -0700 (PDT), WolfBear <m4josh@gmail.com>
wrote:

>If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?

As it was in 1914 France lost over 1/2 million attacking east and only
stopped when the situation in Belgium and northern France started
looking dangerous (e.g. just before the Marne battles)

On Sat, 29 May 2021 14:42:20 -0700 (PDT), WolfBear wrote:

> If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?

Why would a delay stop the Schlieffen Plan?

On 5/29/21 4:42 PM, WolfBear wrote:
> If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan
> stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and
> the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if
> Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in
> Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?

1) Germany had already fortified its border with France.
2) The French Army was convinced it could break through German defenses.
3) There isn't much scope for a French flanking move through Belgium,
which would almost immediately come up against the Meuse River.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 8:36:32 AM UTC-7, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> On 5/29/21 4:42 PM, WolfBear wrote:
> > If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan
> > stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and
> > the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if
> > Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in
> > Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?
> 1) Germany had already fortified its border with France.
> 2) The French Army was convinced it could break through German defenses.
> 3) There isn't much scope for a French flanking move through Belgium,
> which would almost immediately come up against the Meuse River.
>
>
>
> --
> Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
> --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

What about a French flanking move through Switzerland?

On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 3:54:34 PM UTC-4, WolfBear wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 8:36:32 AM UTC-7, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> > On 5/29/21 4:42 PM, WolfBear wrote:
> > > If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan
> > > stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and
> > > the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if
> > > Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in
> > > Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?
> > 1) Germany had already fortified its border with France.
> > 2) The French Army was convinced it could break through German defenses..
> > 3) There isn't much scope for a French flanking move through Belgium,
> > which would almost immediately come up against the Meuse River.
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
> > --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.
> What about a French flanking move through Switzerland?
That would be foolish for two reasons: 1. The Swiss would fight and fight hard. 2. Switzerland's geography is distinctly unfriendly to maneuvering large forces.

On 6/2/21 2:54 PM, WolfBear wrote:

> What about a French flanking move through Switzerland?

Even less plausible,

1) Switzerland would fight, hard.
2) The French-Swiss border runs along the Jura Mountains
north of Lac Geneva; south of the lake, in the Alps.
4) The Swiss-German border is the upper Rhine.
--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

WolfBear <m4josh@gmail.com> on Wed, 2 Jun 2021 12:54:33 -0700 (PDT)
typed in alt.history.what-if the following:
>On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 8:36:32 AM UTC-7, Rich Rostrom wrote:
>> On 5/29/21 4:42 PM, WolfBear wrote:
>> > If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan
>> > stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and
>> > the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if
>> > Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in
>> > Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?
>> 1) Germany had already fortified its border with France.
>> 2) The French Army was convinced it could break through German defenses.
>> 3) There isn't much scope for a French flanking move through Belgium,
>> which would almost immediately come up against the Meuse River.
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
>> --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.
>
>What about a French flanking move through Switzerland?

Excellent idea.

It is a wonder the Germans didn't flank the French that way.
--
pyotr filipivich
"History rarely repeats herself" is the cliche. In reality she just
lets fly with a frying pan yelling "Why weren't you listening the first time!?"

On Monday, June 7, 2021 at 10:37:48 AM UTC-4, pyotr filipivich wrote:
> WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> on Wed, 2 Jun 2021 12:54:33 -0700 (PDT)
> typed in alt.history.what-if the following:
> >On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 8:36:32 AM UTC-7, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> >> On 5/29/21 4:42 PM, WolfBear wrote:
> >> > If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan
> >> > stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and
> >> > the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if
> >> > Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in
> >> > Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?
> >> 1) Germany had already fortified its border with France.
> >> 2) The French Army was convinced it could break through German defenses.
> >> 3) There isn't much scope for a French flanking move through Belgium,
> >> which would almost immediately come up against the Meuse River.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> --
> >> Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
> >> --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.
> >
> >What about a French flanking move through Switzerland?
> Excellent idea.
>
> It is a wonder the Germans didn't flank the French that way.
> --
> pyotr filipivich
> "History rarely repeats herself" is the cliche. In reality she just
> lets fly with a frying pan yelling "Why weren't you listening the first time!?"
Not too much of a wonder. The Germans would have suffered heavily from the Swiss.

On Wednesday, 2 June 2021 at 16:36:32 UTC+1, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> On 5/29/21 4:42 PM, WolfBear wrote:
> > If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan
> > stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and
> > the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if
> > Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in
> > Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?
> 1) Germany had already fortified its border with France.
> 2) The French Army was convinced it could break through German defenses.
> 3) There isn't much scope for a French flanking move through Belgium,
> which would almost immediately come up against the Meuse River.
>
The Meuse doesn't seem to have caused too many problems for the Germans coming the other way? See e.g. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/Bataille_des_Fronti%C3%A8res.svg

"dama...@gmail.com" <damarkley@gmail.com> on Mon, 7 Jun 2021 10:14:34
-0700 (PDT) typed in alt.history.what-if the following:
>On Monday, June 7, 2021 at 10:37:48 AM UTC-4, pyotr filipivich wrote:
>> WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> on Wed, 2 Jun 2021 12:54:33 -0700 (PDT)
>> typed in alt.history.what-if the following:
>> >On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 8:36:32 AM UTC-7, Rich Rostrom wrote:
>> >> On 5/29/21 4:42 PM, WolfBear wrote:
>> >> > If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan
>> >> > stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and
>> >> > the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if
>> >> > Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in
>> >> > Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?
>> >> 1) Germany had already fortified its border with France.
>> >> 2) The French Army was convinced it could break through German defenses.
>> >> 3) There isn't much scope for a French flanking move through Belgium,
>> >> which would almost immediately come up against the Meuse River.
>> >
>> >What about a French flanking move through Switzerland?
>> Excellent idea.
>>
>> It is a wonder the Germans didn't flank the French that way.

>Not too much of a wonder. The Germans would have suffered heavily from the Swiss.

My point exactly.
--
pyotr filipivich
"History rarely repeats herself" is the cliche. In reality she just
lets fly with a frying pan yelling "Why weren't you listening the first time!?"

On 6/7/2021 12:10 PM, Graham Truesdale wrote:
> On Wednesday, 2 June 2021 at 16:36:32 UTC+1, Rich Rostrom wrote:
>> On 5/29/21 4:42 PM, WolfBear wrote:
>>> If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan
>>> stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and
>>> the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if
>>> Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in
>>> Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?
>> 1) Germany had already fortified its border with France.
>> 2) The French Army was convinced it could break through German defenses.
>> 3) There isn't much scope for a French flanking move through Belgium,
>> which would almost immediately come up against the Meuse River.
>>
> The Meuse doesn't seem to have caused too many problems for the Germans coming the other way? See e.g. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/Bataille_des_Fronti%C3%A8res.svg
>

Do you KNOW what "almost immediately" means?

In this case, it means that there's occupyable territory between the
German--Belgian frontier and the Meuse/Maas, but not between the
FRENCH--Belgian frontier and same.

The Germans can maneouvre in a way that the French would only be capable
of doing on their own territory.

The issue here isn't getting up pontoon bridges, it's being able to mass
personnel without their still being able to run home for dinner.

--
Chrysi Cat
1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
Transgoddess, quick to anger. [she/her. Misgender and die].
Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!

On Mon, 07 Jun 2021 07:37:39 -0700, pyotr filipivich
<phamp@mindspring.com> wrote:

>>What about a French flanking move through Switzerland?
>
> Excellent idea.
>
> It is a wonder the Germans didn't flank the French that way.

Do you have any idea of the Swiss fortifications? (Coupled with the
narrow passes immediately east of where CERN now is?)

Think Verdun but more so. If you would expect mobile warfare anything
remotely like the German advance in northern Belgium in 1914 you're
delusional.

The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> on Mon, 07 Jun 2021 19:44:53 -0700
typed in alt.history.what-if the following:
>On Mon, 07 Jun 2021 07:37:39 -0700, pyotr filipivich
><phamp@mindspring.com> wrote:
>
>>>What about a French flanking move through Switzerland?
>>
>> Excellent idea.
>>
>> It is a wonder the Germans didn't flank the French that way.
>
>Do you have any idea of the Swiss fortifications? (Coupled with the
>narrow passes immediately east of where CERN now is?)
>
>Think Verdun but more so. If you would expect mobile warfare anything
>remotely like the German advance in northern Belgium in 1914 you're
>delusional.

I should have used the sarcasm font.

I've traveled in that region, it is a series of valleys connected
by chokepoints. Good defensive ground.
--
pyotr filipivich
"History rarely repeats herself" is the cliche. In reality she just
lets fly with a frying pan yelling "Why weren't you listening the first time!?"

On Monday, 7 June 2021 at 21:09:27 UTC+1, Chrysi Cat wrote:
> On 6/7/2021 12:10 PM, Graham Truesdale wrote:
> > On Wednesday, 2 June 2021 at 16:36:32 UTC+1, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> >> On 5/29/21 4:42 PM, WolfBear wrote:
> >>> If World War I is delayed for long enough and the Schlieffen Plan
> >>> stops being useful, could it be France who will invade Belgium and
> >>> the Netherlands in order to invade Germany that way, especially if
> >>> Germany will aggressively fortify its border with France in
> >>> Alsace-Lorraine by that point in time?
> >> 1) Germany had already fortified its border with France.
> >> 2) The French Army was convinced it could break through German defenses.
> >> 3) There isn't much scope for a French flanking move through Belgium,
> >> which would almost immediately come up against the Meuse River.
> >>
> > The Meuse doesn't seem to have caused too many problems for the Germans coming the other way? See e.g. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/Bataille_des_Fronti%C3%A8res.svg
> >
> Do you KNOW what "almost immediately" means?
>
> In this case, it means that there's occupyable territory between the
> German--Belgian frontier and the Meuse/Maas, but not between the
> FRENCH--Belgian frontier and same.
>
> The Germans can maneouvre in a way that the French would only be capable
> of doing on their own territory.
>
> The issue here isn't getting up pontoon bridges, it's being able to mass
> personnel without their still being able to run home for dinner.
>
Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meuse#/media/File:Stroomgebied_van_de_Maas.svg can you clarify the portion of the Meuse which runs just on the Belgian side of the Belgian-French border? Preferably without using capitals. AFAICS, that river enters Belgium north of Givet (in France) and then runs directly away from the border.

Thanks in advance.

On Tue, 08 Jun 2021 08:33:43 -0700, pyotr filipivich
<phamp@mindspring.com> wrote:

>>Do you have any idea of the Swiss fortifications? (Coupled with the
>>narrow passes immediately east of where CERN now is?)
>>
>>Think Verdun but more so. If you would expect mobile warfare anything
>>remotely like the German advance in northern Belgium in 1914 you're
>>delusional.
>
> I should have used the sarcasm font.
>
> I've traveled in that region, it is a series of valleys connected
>by chokepoints. Good defensive ground.
>--
Being on the west coast of Canada (and thus an unlikely tourist) I've
seen topagraphical maps and am not at all surprised.

I >have< (playing the German player) conquered Switzerland in the old
SPI wargame War in Europe but no question it was a major slog. Some of
the best defensive terrain in the world backed by a small but very
effective army nearly 100% devoted to defence.

On 6/7/21 1:10 PM, Graham Truesdale wrote:
> The Meuse doesn't seem to have caused too many > problems for the Germans coming the other way?

Actually, I was confused. The Meuse becomes the
Belgian border further north, between Belgium and
the Netherlands. It would not be an obstacle to
French troops moving against Germany.

However - part of my point remains. The Belgian-
German border is much shorter that the Belgian-
French border (even including Luxembourg, which
would almost certainly be moved through).

Thus far less scope for maneuver. Also, the
nearly all of eastern Belgium (the Ardennes),
and the German territory just to the east
(Schnee Eifel), is rough country, whereas
France to the south of Belgium is open and
rolling country (except the Argonne Heights
in the extreme east).
--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

On Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 10:05:05 AM UTC-7, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> On 6/7/21 1:10 PM, Graham Truesdale wrote:
> > The Meuse doesn't seem to have caused too many > problems for the Germans coming the other way?
> Actually, I was confused. The Meuse becomes the
> Belgian border further north, between Belgium and
> the Netherlands. It would not be an obstacle to
> French troops moving against Germany.
>
> However - part of my point remains. The Belgian-
> German border is much shorter that the Belgian-
> French border (even including Luxembourg, which
> would almost certainly be moved through).
>
> Thus far less scope for maneuver. Also, the
> nearly all of eastern Belgium (the Ardennes),
> and the German territory just to the east
> (Schnee Eifel), is rough country, whereas
> France to the south of Belgium is open and
> rolling country (except the Argonne Heights
> in the extreme east).
> --
> Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
> --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

FWIW, France can also invade the Netherlands.

On Sat, 12 Jun 2021 12:05:01 -0500, Rich Rostrom
<rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

>On 6/7/21 1:10 PM, Graham Truesdale wrote:
>> The Meuse doesn't seem to have caused too many > problems for the Germans coming the other way?
>
>Actually, I was confused. The Meuse becomes the
>Belgian border further north, between Belgium and
>the Netherlands. It would not be an obstacle to
>French troops moving against Germany.
>
>However - part of my point remains. The Belgian-
>German border is much shorter that the Belgian-
>French border (even including Luxembourg, which
>would almost certainly be moved through).
>
>Thus far less scope for maneuver. Also, the
>nearly all of eastern Belgium (the Ardennes),
>and the German territory just to the east
>(Schnee Eifel), is rough country, whereas
>France to the south of Belgium is open and
>rolling country (except the Argonne Heights
>in the extreme east).

That of course is the whole point. Pretty much the entire
Belgian-German and French-German south of Liege and the Meuse is rough
terrain and you don't really get relatively easy terrain until south
and west of there as was demonstrated in 1940.

I read an account of Verdun and was astonished how hilly the terrain
was and once I understood understood quite well why the main WW1
French defences were sited where they were.

On Sat, 12 Jun 2021 11:31:12 -0700 (PDT), WolfBear <m4josh@gmail.com>
wrote:

>FWIW, France can also invade the Netherlands.

I'm pretty sure the French knew that - after all Bonaparte did.

Stupid question - is there any possibility with a POD after 1815 that
Belgium and the Netherlands could have remained united? It certainly
would have made 1914 very different.

On Sunday, 13 June 2021 at 17:34:58 UTC+1, The Horny Goat wrote:
> On Sat, 12 Jun 2021 11:31:12 -0700 (PDT), WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >FWIW, France can also invade the Netherlands.
> I'm pretty sure the French knew that - after all Bonaparte did.
>
> Stupid question - is there any possibility with a POD after 1815 that
> Belgium and the Netherlands could have remained united? It certainly
> would have made 1914 very different.
>
See e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_Revolution#Causes_of_the_Revolution - e.g. if https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_I_of_the_Netherlands dies earlier and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_II_of_the_Netherlands is on the throne of the United Netherlands by 1830?

I am not certain that Wilhelm II of Germany would have had any more qualms about invading a United Netherlands than he had in OTL about invading Belgium.

On Sun, 13 Jun 2021 10:11:24 -0700 (PDT), Graham Truesdale
<graham.truesdale@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Sunday, 13 June 2021 at 17:34:58 UTC+1, The Horny Goat wrote:
>> On Sat, 12 Jun 2021 11:31:12 -0700 (PDT), WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>> >FWIW, France can also invade the Netherlands.
>> I'm pretty sure the French knew that - after all Bonaparte did.
>>
>> Stupid question - is there any possibility with a POD after 1815 that
>> Belgium and the Netherlands could have remained united? It certainly
>> would have made 1914 very different.
>>
>See e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_Revolution#Causes_of_the_Revolution - e.g. if https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_I_of_the_Netherlands dies earlier and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_II_of_the_Netherlands is on the throne of the United Netherlands by 1830?
>
>I am not certain that Wilhelm II of Germany would have had any more qualms about invading a United Netherlands than he had in OTL about invading Belgium.

Indeed - there is at least one version of the Schlieffen plan that
involves the Netherlands mostly as a way of cutting through Maastricht
to widen the front around Liege which was the first German objective.
(Indeed - if Liege DOESN'T fall quickly the whole plan fails which was
why those 305mm and larger guns were so critical)

On Sunday, June 13, 2021 at 11:11:27 AM UTC-7, The Horny Goat wrote:
> On Sun, 13 Jun 2021 10:11:24 -0700 (PDT), Graham Truesdale
> <graham.t...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >On Sunday, 13 June 2021 at 17:34:58 UTC+1, The Horny Goat wrote:
> >> On Sat, 12 Jun 2021 11:31:12 -0700 (PDT), WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com>
> >> wrote:
> >> >FWIW, France can also invade the Netherlands.
> >> I'm pretty sure the French knew that - after all Bonaparte did.
> >>
> >> Stupid question - is there any possibility with a POD after 1815 that
> >> Belgium and the Netherlands could have remained united? It certainly
> >> would have made 1914 very different.
> >>
> >See e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_Revolution#Causes_of_the_Revolution - e.g. if https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_I_of_the_Netherlands dies earlier and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_II_of_the_Netherlands is on the throne of the United Netherlands by 1830?
> >
> >I am not certain that Wilhelm II of Germany would have had any more qualms about invading a United Netherlands than he had in OTL about invading Belgium.
> Indeed - there is at least one version of the Schlieffen plan that
> involves the Netherlands mostly as a way of cutting through Maastricht
> to widen the front around Liege which was the first German objective.
> (Indeed - if Liege DOESN'T fall quickly the whole plan fails which was
> why those 305mm and larger guns were so critical)

Any idea as to which German territories the Dutch would get after WWI had the Netherlands indeed been invaded by the Germans in 1914. Also, where would Kaiser Bill seek exile after WWI in this TL?