Get ready to see something major that should have been included in last week's episode.

--
Brian

On Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 5:53:59 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
> Get ready to see something major that should have been included in last week's episode.
>
> --
> Brian

The episode started off with Owen confronting James about the Jeanine vote. Owen was pissed that James kept him in the dark and said that he no longer trusted him. James tried to play it off as if it was a test to see if he/they could trust Owen. It got pretty heated and they were still going at each other when they got back to camp. Noelle had enough of it pretty quickly and put an end to it. Noelle was on fire last night!

We also discovered that Gabler told Owen right before the last TC that it was going to be Jeanine getting voted out not Ryan. So now we know why Owen voted the way he did but it's another example of the weird editing this season. If it's a new style of editing I hate it.

For the IC they were randomly divided into two teams but everyone competed individually. The person who lasted longest in the challenge from each tribe would win immunity and the person who lasted longest overall would also win reward (PB&J) and get to go to TC second which would allow them to see who the first team voted out.

The teams were as follows:

Blue: James, Sami, Owen, Karla, Noelle
Red: Ryan, Gabler, Cody, Jesse, Cassidy

Despite having a stitched up and screwed up finger, Karla lasted the longest for Blue and Cody lasted longest for Red and overall. I don't think anyone was expecting Karla to win immunity.

At first it looked like Owen was going from the Blue team. Noelle pitched a plan to use her Steal a Vote on Owen but then use her to votes on James. Sami was on board but Karla wasn't as she sees James as being on her side. On the Red team the talk was deciding between Ryan and Cassidy. It should be noted that Cassidy got a background segment earlier in the episode which gave the impression that this was the end for her.

TC 1 (Blue)

Noelle executed her plan perfectly. When Jeff asked if anyone had an idol or advantage they wanted to play she quickly said yes and then read out her note. She stole Owen's vote. James bought the plan because he did not use his KIP to steal Noelle's Steal a Vote. The reason she didn't steal James's vote is so he wouldn't get suspicious and use his SITD. Karla joined the others in voting out James 4–1. James voted for Owen. James was not happy that he was voted out and I can see him being a bitter juror. It should also be noted that Noelle was a boss at TC taking control when needed.

TC 2 (Red)

When Red came to TC they were clearly shocked that James had been booted. It'll be interesting to find out if this had any impact on their final decision. Cassidy was great at TC. Her story about the "Monster" probably earned her an invite back and no doubt made the promo people at CBS happy. Ryan ended up getting voted out 4–1.

Next episode looks like a lot of people are going to get targeted.

I thought this episode was pretty good overall. The girls had a great episode, especially Noelle. Noelle added some key points to her resume last night. We also got a better indication that Cassidy's playing a strong social game. If she can some challenges going forward she might have a shot at winning.

--
Brian

Brian Smith wrote:

> Get ready to see something major that should have been
> included in last week's episode.

Okay, what was that?

> The episode [...]

Best episode by far this season?

Creative play by Noelle with her advantage!

Go Cas & Owen!

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 11:56:35 AM UTC-7, Emanuel Berg wrote:
> Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > Get ready to see something major that should have been
> > included in last week's episode.
> Okay, what was that?

The flashback stuff we saw at the start of the episode. They should have shown James lying to Owen and Gabler telling him the truth.

> > The episode [...]
>
> Best episode by far this season?

It probably was.

> Creative play by Noelle with her advantage!

Yes!

> Go Cas & Owen!

You're rooting for Owen? You might be his only fan. ;--)

--
Brian

On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 9:28:33 AM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:

It should also be noted that Noelle was a boss at TC taking control when needed.

Well, all I can say is it is a good thing that Jesse and Cody weren't on the same mini-tribe as Noelle because, if they had been, they would have
almost certainly tried to convince Karla and James to vote her out due to their perception that she was "running the show".

> When Red came to TC they were clearly shocked that James had been booted. It'll be interesting to find out if this had any impact on their final decision.

Before TC, we heard Jesse say to Cody that if James was voted out, they should "cut Cass so that Karla would be on her own". So, it's entirely
possible that the sight of James on the jury bench had no impact on their final decision whatsoever.
> I thought this episode was pretty good overall. The girls had a great episode, especially Noelle.
>We also got a better indication that Cassidy's playing a strong social game. If she can some challenges going forward she might have a shot at winning.

I thought it was a good episode too. But IMO Karla remains my favourite to win based on the superior edit she has received practically since E01. We have
seen her do it all:
-collect the beads needed to construct an immunity bracelet (which she still has)
-win an immunity challenge despite having stitches in one of her fingers
-develop multiple strategic relationships with players outside of her original tribe (Jesse, Sammy, Babler)
-appear to be sincerely well-liked by all the other players
She also has a great story to tell the jury if she should happen to make it to FTC. Of course a lot can happen over the last three episodes of the season,
but, IMO, if she makes it to F3 she is a lock to win no matter who else is sitting beside her.

On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 2:28:12 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:

> You're rooting for Owen? You might be his only fan. ;--)

Heh! From my perspective, he and Sammy continue to be engaged in a competition to win the "best pouter" award this season. Owen
pulled slightly ahead in E09. :-)

On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 8:11:10 PM UTC-7, zeppo wrote:
> On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 9:28:33 AM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> It should also be noted that Noelle was a boss at TC taking control when needed.
> Well, all I can say is it is a good thing that Jesse and Cody weren't on the same mini-tribe as Noelle because, if they had been, they would have
> almost certainly tried to convince Karla and James to vote her out due to their perception that she was "running the show".

James and Karla probably thought Jesse and Cody were running the show so it might not have been that hard for Noelle to get them to try and take one of them out. IIRC, Jesse still has two HIIs so that might not have worked out too well!

> > When Red came to TC they were clearly shocked that James had been booted. It'll be interesting to find out if this had any impact on their final decision.
> Before TC, we heard Jesse say to Cody that if James was voted out, they should "cut Cass so that Karla would be on her own". So, it's entirely
> possible that the sight of James on the jury bench had no impact on their final decision whatsoever.

I totally missed that. I know they initially wanted Cassidy out to weaken James and Karla.

> > I thought this episode was pretty good overall. The girls had a great episode, especially Noelle.
> >We also got a better indication that Cassidy's playing a strong social game. If she can some challenges going forward she might have a shot at winning.
> I thought it was a good episode too. But IMO Karla remains my favourite to win based on the superior edit she has received practically since E01. We have
> seen her do it all:
> -collect the beads needed to construct an immunity bracelet (which she still has)
> -win an immunity challenge despite having stitches in one of her fingers
> -develop multiple strategic relationships with players outside of her original tribe (Jesse, Sammy, Babler)
> -appear to be sincerely well-liked by all the other players
> She also has a great story to tell the jury if she should happen to make it to FTC. Of course a lot can happen over the last three episodes of the season,
> but, IMO, if she makes it to F3 she is a lock to win no matter who else is sitting beside her.

I think Noelle's story is equally as strong and it's more out in the open. Karla will need to do a good job of telling her story. I hate to say this but if Gabler makes it to the end he might be able to convince enough of the jury to vote for him. He's pretty good at telling stories and might be able to fool these guys into believing he was in control of his destiny.

--
Brian

On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 8:24:04 PM UTC-7, zeppo wrote:
> On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 2:28:12 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > You're rooting for Owen? You might be his only fan. ;--)
> Heh! From my perspective, he and Sammy continue to be engaged in a competition to win the "best pouter" award this season. Owen
> pulled slightly ahead in E09. :-)

What is Sami trying to do by always telling everyone what's going to happen? How is that building his resume? Or does he think making it to the end and then revealing that he's only 19 will be enough for him to win the game?

--
Brian

Brian Smith wrote:

>> Go Cas & Owen!
>
> You're rooting for Owen? You might be his only fan. ;--)

No, Cody, of the men. He has won one challenge and finished
2nd place twice, gotta respect that.

So Cas & Owen

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

> > On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 9:28:33 AM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:

> IIRC, Jesse still has two HIIs so that might not have worked out too well!

Now that James' Knowledge is Power advantage is out of the game, I am sure that Cody will ask for
his bracelet back.

> I totally missed that. I know they initially wanted Cassidy out to weaken James and Karla.

From what we were shown of Jesse and Cody's conversation, they were reluctant to vote for Cass because they
were concerned that such a move would result in "James and Karla not being happy". What we were left with was
Jesse's suggestion that, if they saw Owen sitting on the jury bench, they should vote for Ryan, and if it was James
they should vote for Cass. Clearly this was one of several scenarios that Jesse and Cody discussed as, in the end,
they did something totally different.

> > >We also got a better indication that Cassidy's playing a strong social game. If she can some challenges going forward she might have a shot at winning.

I have no doubt that she has been more involved in the game than what we have been shown. However, unless something remarkable happens in
the final three episodes, she has not received the type of edit that would lead me to believe that she is the winner of S43.

> I think Noelle's story is equally as strong and it's more out in the open.

Noelle has a very compelling life story, but, as of E09, not a particularly strong game story. For example, of the six tribal councils that she attended prior to
E10, she was on the wrong side of the vote three times, and was the only person to vote for Nneka (E02) and Cass (E06). IMO, this is the voting record of
someone who was chronically out of the strategic loop. In comparison, Cass, Jesse, Cody and Sami have all been on the right side of the numbers at every
single TC that they have attended so far.

>Karla will need to do a good job of telling her story.

Absolutely! It's not going to matter how strong her game was if she can't explain it to the jury.

> I hate to say this but if Gabler makes it to the end he might be able to convince enough of the jury to vote for him. He's pretty good at telling stories and might be able to fool >these guys into believing he was in control of his destiny.

Babler's edit might lead some of the viewing audience to believe that he was an important player in S43, but the jury members who lived with him would not likely
be as easily fooled.

On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 12:28:33 PM UTC-5, Brian Smith wrote:
> TC 1 (Blue)
>
> Noelle executed her plan perfectly. When Jeff asked if anyone had an idol or advantage they wanted to play she quickly said yes and then read out her note. She stole Owen's vote. James bought the plan because he did not use his KIP to steal Noelle's Steal a Vote. The reason she didn't steal James's vote is so he wouldn't get suspicious and use his SITD. Karla joined the others in voting out James 4–1. James voted for Owen. James was not happy that he was voted out and I can see him being a bitter juror. It should also be noted that Noelle was a boss at TC taking control when needed.
>
> Brian

Fairer to say Noelle didn't use the steal-a-vote on James so he wouldn't use the knowledge-is-power to gain a different advantage/idol from someone. He couldn't use his shot-in-the-dark if he never made it to the voting shed..

-Bob

On Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 9:10:44 AM UTC-7, Robert wrote:
> On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 12:28:33 PM UTC-5, Brian Smith wrote:
> > TC 1 (Blue)
> >
> > Noelle executed her plan perfectly. When Jeff asked if anyone had an idol or advantage they wanted to play she quickly said yes and then read out her note. She stole Owen's vote. James bought the plan because he did not use his KIP to steal Noelle's Steal a Vote. The reason she didn't steal James's vote is so he wouldn't get suspicious and use his SITD. Karla joined the others in voting out James 4–1. James voted for Owen. James was not happy that he was voted out and I can see him being a bitter juror. It should also be noted that Noelle was a boss at TC taking control when needed..
> >
> > Brian
>
> Fairer to say Noelle didn't use the steal-a-vote on James so he wouldn't use the knowledge-is-power to gain a different advantage/idol from someone. He couldn't use his shot-in-the-dark if he never made it to the voting shed.
>
> -Bob

I don't think SITD works that way.

--
Brian

On Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 3:26:30 PM UTC-5, Brian Smith wrote:
> On Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 9:10:44 AM UTC-7, Robert wrote:
> > On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 12:28:33 PM UTC-5, Brian Smith wrote:
> > > TC 1 (Blue)
> > >
> > > Noelle executed her plan perfectly. When Jeff asked if anyone had an idol or advantage they wanted to play she quickly said yes and then read out her note. She stole Owen's vote. James bought the plan because he did not use his KIP to steal Noelle's Steal a Vote. The reason she didn't steal James's vote is so he wouldn't get suspicious and use his SITD. Karla joined the others in voting out James 4–1. James voted for Owen. James was not happy that he was voted out and I can see him being a bitter juror. It should also be noted that Noelle was a boss at TC taking control when needed.
> > >
> > > Brian
> >
> > Fairer to say Noelle didn't use the steal-a-vote on James so he wouldn't use the knowledge-is-power to gain a different advantage/idol from someone. He couldn't use his shot-in-the-dark if he never made it to the voting shed.
> >
> > -Bob
> I don't think SITD works that way.
>
> --
> Brian

Don't know if this is gospel, but it says you need to be able to vote: https://survivor.fandom.com/wiki/Shot_in_the_Dark

The inability to use SITD stuck with me because James stated it when Noelle told him she was going to steal Owen's vote. This was around the 24 minute mark (commercial free).

-Bob

On Monday, November 21, 2022 at 7:55:43 AM UTC-7, Robert wrote:
> On Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 3:26:30 PM UTC-5, Brian Smith wrote:
> > On Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 9:10:44 AM UTC-7, Robert wrote:
> > > On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 12:28:33 PM UTC-5, Brian Smith wrote:
> > > > TC 1 (Blue)
> > > >
> > > > Noelle executed her plan perfectly. When Jeff asked if anyone had an idol or advantage they wanted to play she quickly said yes and then read out her note. She stole Owen's vote. James bought the plan because he did not use his KIP to steal Noelle's Steal a Vote. The reason she didn't steal James's vote is so he wouldn't get suspicious and use his SITD. Karla joined the others in voting out James 4–1. James voted for Owen. James was not happy that he was voted out and I can see him being a bitter juror. It should also be noted that Noelle was a boss at TC taking control when needed.
> > > >
> > > > Brian
> > >
> > > Fairer to say Noelle didn't use the steal-a-vote on James so he wouldn't use the knowledge-is-power to gain a different advantage/idol from someone. He couldn't use his shot-in-the-dark if he never made it to the voting shed.
> > >
> > > -Bob
> > I don't think SITD works that way.
> >
> > --
> > Brian
> Don't know if this is gospel, but it says you need to be able to vote: https://survivor.fandom.com/wiki/Shot_in_the_Dark
>
> The inability to use SITD stuck with me because James stated it when Noelle told him she was going to steal Owen's vote. This was around the 24 minute mark (commercial free).
>
> -Bob

I see the point you're making. There was a thread on Twitter about this where I believe one of the players chimed in. It sounded like SITD was a factor in Noelle's decision making. Is there an extra vote advantage floating around? With so many idols and advantages in the game it's hard to keep track of what's out there and who has what.

--
Brian

On Monday, November 21, 2022 at 12:09:37 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:
Is there an extra vote advantage floating around? With so many idols and advantages in the game it's hard to keep track of what's out there and who has what.

You'll be very relieved to know that S43 may end up being the most "advantage lite" seasons in quite a while. IIRC, there are currently only three
immunity bracelets in play (Cody, Karla, Jesse). All the other advantages have either been played, or left the game with booted players.

On Monday, November 21, 2022 at 7:27:10 PM UTC-7, zeppo wrote:
> On Monday, November 21, 2022 at 12:09:37 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:
> Is there an extra vote advantage floating around? With so many idols and advantages in the game it's hard to keep track of what's out there and who has what.
> You'll be very relieved to know that S43 may end up being the most "advantage lite" seasons in quite a while. IIRC, there are currently only three
> immunity bracelets in play (Cody, Karla, Jesse). All the other advantages have either been played, or left the game with booted players.

I thought Jesse has two idols and Cody none? I'm pretty sure we were shown a confessional where Jesse talked about having two. In a preview clip for this week's episode they show Jesse in a confessional describing how he sees the current situation and he says "I feel great where I'm at." The clip gives the impression Sami could be in trouble but I could see Jesse getting blindsided and going home with two idols in his pocket. IIRC, Elie was as equally overconfident in her boot episode.

--
Brian