Had Russia avoided decades of Communist rule and become a fully developed country by now, and also kept Central Asia, just how many Afghans and other groups such as Pakistanis, Indians, Persians, and Uyghurs do you think would have immigrated to Russia over the last 100 years, including illegally?

On Wed, 14 Jul 2021 14:28:49 -0700 (PDT), WolfBear wrote:

> Had Russia avoided decades of Communist rule and become a fully developed country by now, and also kept Central Asia, just how many Afghans and other groups such as Pakistanis, Indians, Persians, and Uyghurs do you think would have immigrated to Russia over the last 100 years, including illegally?

The big one today is Chinese. In this POD there would be more Chinese.

On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 16:10:31 +1000, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
wrote:

>On Wed, 14 Jul 2021 14:28:49 -0700 (PDT), WolfBear wrote:
>
>> Had Russia avoided decades of Communist rule and become a fully developed country by now, and also kept Central Asia, just how many Afghans and other groups such as Pakistanis, Indians, Persians, and Uyghurs do you think would have immigrated to Russia over the last 100 years, including illegally?
>
>The big one today is Chinese. In this POD there would be more Chinese.

Would there be? In OTL China was facing starvation in the early 1960s
- of course with a non-Communist Russia you probably DON'T get a Nazi
type WW2 or a Chinese Civil War which may mean either an extended
Warlord era or a Sun-Yat Sen fantasy of a gradually modernizing China
without the loving attention of OTL's Japan.

In this timeline I do NOT see Britain and France further intervening
in China since they already have what they most want - though it is
possible if there are further battles Hong Kong could be further
extended. While I know a certain amount about Hong Kong first hand
from the 1980s forward I don't know nearly enough about it in the
1945-1985 time frame to intelligently comment.

Whether Hong Kong or Singapore is the strongest colonial city in the
Far East in this scenario is anybody's guess - I do NOT see a
Sino-Russian war with the intent of Russia gaining Manchuria though
they may take Mongolia (your call whether both Inner and Outer or just
Outer)

Frankly in the scenario you describe I would think Russia would be
primarily about modernizing Siberia rather than making further
conquests in Central Asia and China. And to Europe that is a MUCH
scarier prospect than one bent on additional acquisitions. Remember
what the German general staff thought about Russia in the 1920s if
they didn't fight her in 1914.....

On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 19:31:13 -0700, The Horny Goat wrote:

> On Thu, 15 Jul 2021 16:10:31 +1000, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
> wrote:
>
>>On Wed, 14 Jul 2021 14:28:49 -0700 (PDT), WolfBear wrote:
>>
>>> Had Russia avoided decades of Communist rule and become a fully developed country by now, and also kept Central Asia, just how many Afghans and other groups such as Pakistanis, Indians, Persians, and Uyghurs do you think would have immigrated to Russia over the last 100 years, including illegally?
>>
>>The big one today is Chinese. In this POD there would be more Chinese.
>
> Would there be? In OTL China was facing starvation in the early 1960s
> - of course with a non-Communist Russia you probably DON'T get a Nazi
> type WW2 or a Chinese Civil War which may mean either an extended
> Warlord era or a Sun-Yat Sen fantasy of a gradually modernizing China
> without the loving attention of OTL's Japan.

Nationalists in Taiwan proved to be efficient modernizers!

We have here is Japan, with a 1/4 of China facing 3/4 of China under the
Nationist. This could get very messy.

>
> In this timeline I do NOT see Britain and France further intervening
> in China since they already have what they most want - though it is
> possible if there are further battles Hong Kong could be further
> extended. While I know a certain amount about Hong Kong first hand
> from the 1980s forward I don't know nearly enough about it in the
> 1945-1985 time frame to intelligently comment.

Both Britain and France would be struggling to hold what they have.

>
> Whether Hong Kong or Singapore is the strongest colonial city in the
> Far East in this scenario is anybody's guess - I do NOT see a
> Sino-Russian war with the intent of Russia gaining Manchuria though
> they may take Mongolia (your call whether both Inner and Outer or just
> Outer)

Yep.

>
> Frankly in the scenario you describe I would think Russia would be
> primarily about modernizing Siberia rather than making further
> conquests in Central Asia and China. And to Europe that is a MUCH
> scarier prospect than one bent on additional acquisitions. Remember
> what the German general staff thought about Russia in the 1920s if
> they didn't fight her in 1914.....

Russia is modernizing Siberia under private enterprise. China is a much
cheaper source of labour than Western Russia.

On 7/14/21 4:28 PM, WolfBear wrote:
> Had Russia avoided decades of Communist rule and
> become a fully developed country by now,
> and also kept Central Asia, just how many

> Afghans

A few.

> and other groups such as...
> Pakistanis,

A few.

> Indians,

A few more

> Persians,

Very few

> and Uyghurs

Very few

> do you think would have immigrated to Russia over the last 100 years

Does this include movements to Central Asia? There
would be a certain amount of cross-border flow both
ways, given that ethnic and familial ties pass over.

I would guess 2.5-5M overall.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

On Friday, July 16, 2021 at 5:33:30 PM UTC-7, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> On 7/14/21 4:28 PM, WolfBear wrote:
> > Had Russia avoided decades of Communist rule and
> > become a fully developed country by now,
> > and also kept Central Asia, just how many
>
> > Afghans
> A few.
>
> > and other groups such as...
> > Pakistanis,
>
> A few.
>
> > Indians,
>
> A few more
>

Would there be more Indians due to their sheer number?

> > Persians,
>
> Very few
>
> > and Uyghurs
>
> Very few
> > do you think would have immigrated to Russia over the last 100 years
> Does this include movements to Central Asia?

If Russia permanently keeps Central Asia and if the migration to Central Asia is actually permanent, then Yes.

> There
> would be a certain amount of cross-border flow both
> ways, given that ethnic and familial ties pass over.
>
> I would guess 2.5-5M overall.
>

Well, what exactly would it have taken for Russia's South Asian population to become anywhere near as large as the US's Hispanic population became or will become? The US's Hispanic population might peak at over 100 million in the late 21st century. There are almost two billion South Asians in total--or at least will be by the late 21st century, so having 5-8% of them end up in a Greater Russia should not be too difficult if this Russia would have actually become fully developed by the end of the 20th century--should it?

> --
> Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
> --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.