So, let's assume that someone who is located right next to Charles Guiteau sees Guiteau aiming for Garfield and thus managing to successfully tackle Guiteau and stop Guiteau's second bullet from actually hitting Garfield. Thus, Garfield lives. Anyway, how does US politics subsequently develop over the next 25 years?

Personally, I would presume that Garfield wins reelection in 1884 since he was more honest and less corrupt (or at least perceived that was) than Blaine was. Garfield likely dumps Arthur in 1884 simply because the Stalwarts aren't as formidable as they were back in 1880 and also because Arthur was in declining health by 1884. I do wonder if Grover Cleveland would actually run against Garfield in 1884, but either way, I think that Cleveland's odds for the 1888 Democratic nomination would have been excellent had he remained New York Governor until then. So, we will see a Blaine vs. Cleveland race in 1888 rather than in 1884 (Blaine, as Garfield's Secretary of State, should be Garfield's logical successor after the defeat of the Stalwarts in 1881). This would be a true tossup, but I think that the odds might have been slightly more in Blaine's favor in 1888 versus 1884 due to Roscoe Conkling's death and also because the US economy was in better shape in 1888 than it was in 1884. So, let's have Blaine extremely narrowly win in 1888. Blaine likely does not run for reelection in 1892 due to his poor health, which raises the question of who exactly the Democrats and Republicans would actually nominate that year. If Cleveland only ran and lost in 1888, then having him run again in 1892 is very possible, but if he ran and lost in both 1884 and 1888, then an 1892 run for him is probably unlikely, thus likely paving the way for someone else, such as David B. Hill, if he still becomes New York Governor by then, to win the Democratic presidential nomination that year. I'm really not sure who exactly the Republicans nominate that year, but it shouldn't really matter since if the Republicans win in 1888, they are likely go down in 1892 for the same reasons as in real life. Of course, Blaine is likely to die in office in January 1893, thus briefly making his Vice President--whomever they are--US President. Then we will see a David B.. Hill Presidency from 1893 to 1897, before possibly still having William McKinley win in 1896, get reelected in 1900, and perhaps still get assassinated in 1901 depending on just how exactly Leon Czolgosz's life develops in this TL. He was already born by 1881, after all. Then it's possible that Teddy Roosevelt still becomes US President after McKinley's assassination, depending on whether or not McKinley actually chose him as his VP in 1900.

So, essentially, we could see this US President list in this TL:

Rutherford Hayes (1822-1893), Republican, served 1877-1881

James Garfield (1831-1915), Republican, served 1881-1889

James Blaine (1830-1893), Republican, served 1889-January 1893

Blaine's VP, whomever they are (lifespan unknown), Republican, served January 1893-March 1893

David Hill (1843-1910), Democrat, served 1893-1897

William McKinley (1843-1901), Republican, served 1897-1901

Theodore Roosevelt (1858-?), Republican, served 1901-?

Does all of this actually look and sound sufficiently realistic?

WolfBear <m4josh@gmail.com> wrote:
> So, let's assume that someone who is located right next to Charles Guiteau sees Guiteau aiming for Garfield and thus managing to successfully tackle Guiteau and stop Guiteau's second bullet from actually hitting Garfield. Thus, Garfield lives. Anyway, how does US politics subsequently develop over the next 25 years?
>
> Personally, I would presume that Garfield wins reelection in 1884 since he was more honest and less corrupt (or at least perceived that was) than Blaine was. Garfield likely dumps Arthur in 1884 simply because the Stalwarts aren't as formidable as they were back in 1880 and also because Arthur was in declining health by 1884. I do wonder if Grover Cleveland would actually run against Garfield in 1884, but either way, I think that Cleveland's odds for the 1888 Democratic nomination would have been excellent had he remained New York Governor until then. So, we will see a Blaine vs. Cleveland race in 1888 rather than in 1884 (Blaine, as Garfield's Secretary of State, should be Garfield's logical successor after the defeat of the Stalwarts in 1881). This would be a true tossup, but I think that the odds might have been slightly more in Blaine's favor in 1888 versus 1884 due to Roscoe Conkling's death and also because the US economy was in better shape in 1888 than it was in 1884. So, let's have Blaine extremely narrowly win in 1888. Blaine likely does not run for reelection in 1892 due to his poor health, which raises the question of who exactly the Democrats and Republicans would a
ctually nominate that year. If Cleveland only ran and lost in 1888, then having him run again in 1892 is very possible, but if he ran and lost in both 1884 and 1888, then an 1892 run for him is probably unlikely, thus likely paving the way for someone else, such as David B. Hill, if he still becomes New York Governor by then, to win the Democratic presidential nomination that year. I'm really not sure who exactly the Republicans nominate that year, but it shouldn't really matter since if the Republicans win in 1888, they are likely go down in 1892 for the same reasons as in real life. Of course, Blaine is likely to die in office in January 1893, thus briefly making his Vice President--whomever they are--US President. Then we will see a David B. Hill Presidency from 1893 to 1897, before possibly still having William McKinley win in 1896, get reelected in 1900, and perhaps still get assassinated in 1901 depending on just how exactly Leon Czolgosz's life develops in this TL. He was already born by 1881, after all. Then it's possible that Teddy Roosevelt still becomes US President after McKinley's assassination, depending on whether or not McKinley actually chose him as his VP in 1900

On Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 3:51:50 PM UTC-7, Louis Epstein wrote:
> WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > So, let's assume that someone who is located right next to Charles Guiteau sees Guiteau aiming for Garfield and thus managing to successfully tackle Guiteau and stop Guiteau's second bullet from actually hitting Garfield. Thus, Garfield lives. Anyway, how does US politics subsequently develop over the next 25 years?
> >
> > Personally, I would presume that Garfield wins reelection in 1884 since he was more honest and less corrupt (or at least perceived that was) than Blaine was. Garfield likely dumps Arthur in 1884 simply because the Stalwarts aren't as formidable as they were back in 1880 and also because Arthur was in declining health by 1884. I do wonder if Grover Cleveland would actually run against Garfield in 1884, but either way, I think that Cleveland's odds for the 1888 Democratic nomination would have been excellent had he remained New York Governor until then. So, we will see a Blaine vs. Cleveland race in 1888 rather than in 1884 (Blaine, as Garfield's Secretary of State, should be Garfield's logical successor after the defeat of the Stalwarts in 1881). This would be a true tossup, but I think that the odds might have been slightly more in Blaine's favor in 1888 versus 1884 due to Roscoe Conkling's death and also because the US economy was in better shape in 1888 than it was in 1884. So, let's have Blaine extremely narrowly win in 1888. Blaine likely does not run for reelection in 1892 due to his poor health, which raises the question of who exactly the Democrats and Republicans would actually nominate that year. If Cleveland only ran and lost in 1888, then having him run again in 1892 is very possible, but if he ran and lost in both 1884 and 1888, then an 1892 run for him is probably unlikely, thus likely paving the way for someone else, such as David B. Hill, if he still becomes New York Governor by then, to win the Democratic presidential nomination that year. I'm really not sure who exactly the Republicans nominate that year, but it shouldn't really matter since if the Republicans win in 1888, they are likely go down in 1892 for the same reasons as in real life. Of course, Blaine is likely to die in office in January 1893, thus briefly making his Vice President--whomever they are--US President. Then we will see a David B. Hill Presidency from 1893 to 1897, before possibly still having William McKinley win in 1896, get reelected in 1900, and perhaps still get assassinated in 1901 depending on just how exactly Leon Czolgosz's life develops in this TL. He was already born by 1881, after all. Then it's possible that Teddy Roosevelt still becomes US President after McKinley's assassination, depending on whether or not McKinley actually chose him as his VP in 1900..
> >
> > So, essentially, we could see this US President list in this TL:
> >
> > Rutherford Hayes (1822-1893), Republican, served 1877-1881
> >
> > James Garfield (1831-1915), Republican, served 1881-1889
> >
> > James Blaine (1830-1893), Republican, served 1889-January 1893
> >
> > Blaine's VP, whomever they are (lifespan unknown), Republican, served January 1893-March 1893
> >
> > David Hill (1843-1910), Democrat, served 1893-1897
> >
> > William McKinley (1843-1901), Republican, served 1897-1901
> >
> > Theodore Roosevelt (1858-?), Republican, served 1901-?
> >
> > Does all of this actually look and sound sufficiently realistic?
> Would the Spanish American War still happen,in order to get
> TR the notoriety leading to his selection as McKinley's second VP?
>
> I think lots of butterflies would have affected many careers.
>
> -=-=-
> The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
> at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

The USS Maine sinking might very well be butterflied away in this TL, BUT the Spanish-American War might still occur since the crisis in Cuba predated the USS Maine sinking and there really doesn't appear to have been any other plausible way out of this crisis--was there? Spain was unwilling to give Cuba independence and the Cuban rebels would have settled for nothing less than full independence, no?

On Friday, July 23, 2021 at 12:26:31 PM UTC-7, WolfBear wrote:
> On Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 3:51:50 PM UTC-7, Louis Epstein wrote:
> > WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > So, let's assume that someone who is located right next to Charles Guiteau sees Guiteau aiming for Garfield and thus managing to successfully tackle Guiteau and stop Guiteau's second bullet from actually hitting Garfield. Thus, Garfield lives. Anyway, how does US politics subsequently develop over the next 25 years?
> > >
> > > Personally, I would presume that Garfield wins reelection in 1884 since he was more honest and less corrupt (or at least perceived that was) than Blaine was. Garfield likely dumps Arthur in 1884 simply because the Stalwarts aren't as formidable as they were back in 1880 and also because Arthur was in declining health by 1884. I do wonder if Grover Cleveland would actually run against Garfield in 1884, but either way, I think that Cleveland's odds for the 1888 Democratic nomination would have been excellent had he remained New York Governor until then. So, we will see a Blaine vs. Cleveland race in 1888 rather than in 1884 (Blaine, as Garfield's Secretary of State, should be Garfield's logical successor after the defeat of the Stalwarts in 1881). This would be a true tossup, but I think that the odds might have been slightly more in Blaine's favor in 1888 versus 1884 due to Roscoe Conkling's death and also because the US economy was in better shape in 1888 than it was in 1884. So, let's have Blaine extremely narrowly win in 1888. Blaine likely does not run for reelection in 1892 due to his poor health, which raises the question of who exactly the Democrats and Republicans would actually nominate that year. If Cleveland only ran and lost in 1888, then having him run again in 1892 is very possible, but if he ran and lost in both 1884 and 1888, then an 1892 run for him is probably unlikely, thus likely paving the way for someone else, such as David B. Hill, if he still becomes New York Governor by then, to win the Democratic presidential nomination that year. I'm really not sure who exactly the Republicans nominate that year, but it shouldn't really matter since if the Republicans win in 1888, they are likely go down in 1892 for the same reasons as in real life. Of course, Blaine is likely to die in office in January 1893, thus briefly making his Vice President--whomever they are--US President. Then we will see a David B. Hill Presidency from 1893 to 1897, before possibly still having William McKinley win in 1896, get reelected in 1900, and perhaps still get assassinated in 1901 depending on just how exactly Leon Czolgosz's life develops in this TL. He was already born by 1881, after all. Then it's possible that Teddy Roosevelt still becomes US President after McKinley's assassination, depending on whether or not McKinley actually chose him as his VP in 1900.
> > >
> > > So, essentially, we could see this US President list in this TL:
> > >
> > > Rutherford Hayes (1822-1893), Republican, served 1877-1881
> > >
> > > James Garfield (1831-1915), Republican, served 1881-1889
> > >
> > > James Blaine (1830-1893), Republican, served 1889-January 1893
> > >
> > > Blaine's VP, whomever they are (lifespan unknown), Republican, served January 1893-March 1893
> > >
> > > David Hill (1843-1910), Democrat, served 1893-1897
> > >
> > > William McKinley (1843-1901), Republican, served 1897-1901
> > >
> > > Theodore Roosevelt (1858-?), Republican, served 1901-?
> > >
> > > Does all of this actually look and sound sufficiently realistic?
> > Would the Spanish American War still happen,in order to get
> > TR the notoriety leading to his selection as McKinley's second VP?
> >
> > I think lots of butterflies would have affected many careers.
> >
> > -=-=-
> > The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
> > at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.
> The USS Maine sinking might very well be butterflied away in this TL, BUT the Spanish-American War might still occur since the crisis in Cuba predated the USS Maine sinking and there really doesn't appear to have been any other plausible way out of this crisis--was there? Spain was unwilling to give Cuba independence and the Cuban rebels would have settled for nothing less than full independence, no?

Of course, this is assuming that a Republican is actually US President in 1898. If a Democrat is in office during this time, then of course things could be different--though it's possible that there would still be a war, it's just that the Philippines might become independent immediately as opposed to them becoming a US colony for half a century.

WolfBear <m4josh@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 3:51:50 PM UTC-7, Louis Epstein wrote:
>> WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> > So, let's assume that someone who is located right next to Charles Guiteau sees Guiteau aiming for Garfield and thus managing to successfully tackle Guiteau and stop Guiteau's second bullet from actually hitting Garfield. Thus, Garfield lives. Anyway, how does US politics subsequently develop over the next 25 years?
>> >
>> > Personally, I would presume that Garfield wins reelection in 1884 since he was more honest and less corrupt (or at least perceived that was) than Blaine was. Garfield likely dumps Arthur in 1884 simply because the Stalwarts aren't as formidable as they were back in 1880 and also because Arthur was in declining health by 1884. I do wonder if Grover Cleveland would actually run against Garfield in 1884, but either way, I think that Cleveland's odds for the 1888 Democratic nomination would have been excellent had he remained New York Governor until then. So, we will see a Blaine vs. Cleveland race in 1888 rather than in 1884 (Blaine, as Garfield's Secretary of State, should be Garfield's logical successor after the defeat of the Stalwarts in 1881). This would be a true tossup, but I think that the odds might have been slightly more in Blaine's favor in 1888 versus 1884 due to Roscoe Conkling's death and also because the US economy was in better shape in 1888 than it was in 1884. So, let's have Blaine extremely narrowly win in 1888. Blaine likely does not run for reelection in 1892 due to his poor health, which raises the question of who exactly the Democrats and Republicans woul
d actually nominate that year. If Cleveland only ran and lost in 1888, then having him run again in 1892 is very possible, but if he ran and lost in both 1884 and 1888, then an 1892 run for him is probably unlikely, thus likely paving the way for someone else, such as David B. Hill, if he still becomes New York Governor by then, to win the Democratic presidential nomination that year. I'm really not sure who exactly the Republicans nominate that year, but it shouldn't really matter since if the Republicans win in 1888, they are likely go down in 1892 for the same reasons as in real life. Of course, Blaine is likely to die in office in January 1893, thus briefly making his Vice President--whomever they are--US President. Then we will see a David B. Hill Presidency from 1893 to 1897, before possibly still having William McKinley win in 1896, get reelected in 1900, and perhaps still get assassinated in 1901 depending on just how exactly Leon Czolgosz's life develops in this TL. He was already born by 1881, after all. Then it's possible that Teddy Roosevelt still becomes US President after McKinley's assassination, depending on whether or not McKinley actually chose him as his VP in 1
900.
>> >
>> > So, essentially, we could see this US President list in this TL:
>> >
>> > Rutherford Hayes (1822-1893), Republican, served 1877-1881
>> >
>> > James Garfield (1831-1915), Republican, served 1881-1889
>> >
>> > James Blaine (1830-1893), Republican, served 1889-January 1893
>> >
>> > Blaine's VP, whomever they are (lifespan unknown), Republican, served January 1893-March 1893
>> >
>> > David Hill (1843-1910), Democrat, served 1893-1897
>> >
>> > William McKinley (1843-1901), Republican, served 1897-1901
>> >
>> > Theodore Roosevelt (1858-?), Republican, served 1901-?
>> >
>> > Does all of this actually look and sound sufficiently realistic?
>> Would the Spanish American War still happen,in order to get
>> TR the notoriety leading to his selection as McKinley's second VP?
>>
>> I think lots of butterflies would have affected many careers.
>>
>
> The USS Maine sinking might very well be butterflied away in this TL, BUT the
> Spanish-American War might still occur since the crisis in Cuba predated the USS
> Maine sinking and there really doesn't appear to have been any other plausible
> way out of this crisis--was there? Spain was unwilling to give Cuba independence
> and the Cuban rebels would have settled for nothing less than full independence,
> no?

I've seen it said that the assassination of the Spanish prime minister
in 1897 affected things,and that a more decisive Spanish government could
have crushed the rebels.

>> -=-=-
>> The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
>> at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

On Thursday, July 29, 2021 at 11:56:00 PM UTC-7, Louis Epstein wrote:
> WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 3:51:50 PM UTC-7, Louis Epstein wrote:
> >> WolfBear <m4j...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >> > So, let's assume that someone who is located right next to Charles Guiteau sees Guiteau aiming for Garfield and thus managing to successfully tackle Guiteau and stop Guiteau's second bullet from actually hitting Garfield. Thus, Garfield lives. Anyway, how does US politics subsequently develop over the next 25 years?
> >> >
> >> > Personally, I would presume that Garfield wins reelection in 1884 since he was more honest and less corrupt (or at least perceived that was) than Blaine was. Garfield likely dumps Arthur in 1884 simply because the Stalwarts aren't as formidable as they were back in 1880 and also because Arthur was in declining health by 1884. I do wonder if Grover Cleveland would actually run against Garfield in 1884, but either way, I think that Cleveland's odds for the 1888 Democratic nomination would have been excellent had he remained New York Governor until then. So, we will see a Blaine vs. Cleveland race in 1888 rather than in 1884 (Blaine, as Garfield's Secretary of State, should be Garfield's logical successor after the defeat of the Stalwarts in 1881). This would be a true tossup, but I think that the odds might have been slightly more in Blaine's favor in 1888 versus 1884 due to Roscoe Conkling's death and also because the US economy was in better shape in 1888 than it was in 1884. So, let's have Blaine extremely narrowly win in 1888.. Blaine likely does not run for reelection in 1892 due to his poor health, which raises the question of who exactly the Democrats and Republicans would actually nominate that year. If Cleveland only ran and lost in 1888, then having him run again in 1892 is very possible, but if he ran and lost in both 1884 and 1888, then an 1892 run for him is probably unlikely, thus likely paving the way for someone else, such as David B. Hill, if he still becomes New York Governor by then, to win the Democratic presidential nomination that year. I'm really not sure who exactly the Republicans nominate that year, but it shouldn't really matter since if the Republicans win in 1888, they are likely go down in 1892 for the same reasons as in real life. Of course, Blaine is likely to die in office in January 1893, thus briefly making his Vice President--whomever they are--US President. Then we will see a David B. Hill Presidency from 1893 to 1897, before possibly still having William McKinley win in 1896, get reelected in 1900, and perhaps still get assassinated in 1901 depending on just how exactly Leon Czolgosz's life develops in this TL. He was already born by 1881, after all. Then it's possible that Teddy Roosevelt still becomes US President after McKinley's assassination, depending on whether or not McKinley actually chose him as his VP in 1900.
> >> >
> >> > So, essentially, we could see this US President list in this TL:
> >> >
> >> > Rutherford Hayes (1822-1893), Republican, served 1877-1881
> >> >
> >> > James Garfield (1831-1915), Republican, served 1881-1889
> >> >
> >> > James Blaine (1830-1893), Republican, served 1889-January 1893
> >> >
> >> > Blaine's VP, whomever they are (lifespan unknown), Republican, served January 1893-March 1893
> >> >
> >> > David Hill (1843-1910), Democrat, served 1893-1897
> >> >
> >> > William McKinley (1843-1901), Republican, served 1897-1901
> >> >
> >> > Theodore Roosevelt (1858-?), Republican, served 1901-?
> >> >
> >> > Does all of this actually look and sound sufficiently realistic?
> >> Would the Spanish American War still happen,in order to get
> >> TR the notoriety leading to his selection as McKinley's second VP?
> >>
> >> I think lots of butterflies would have affected many careers.
> >>
> >
> > The USS Maine sinking might very well be butterflied away in this TL, BUT the
> > Spanish-American War might still occur since the crisis in Cuba predated the USS
> > Maine sinking and there really doesn't appear to have been any other plausible
> > way out of this crisis--was there? Spain was unwilling to give Cuba independence
> > and the Cuban rebels would have settled for nothing less than full independence,
> > no?
> I've seen it said that the assassination of the Spanish prime minister
> in 1897 affected things,and that a more decisive Spanish government could
> have crushed the rebels.
> >> -=-=-
> >> The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
> >> at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

A merciless crushing of the Cuban rebels might trigger larger calls in the US for US intervention in Cuba, though.