When King Victor Emanuel of Italy fired and imprisoned Mussolini in 1943,
the Nazis mounted the Gran Sasso Raid that freed him,the hundreds of
Italian guards obliging a pro-Nazi Italian general brought along by
the 16 SS commandos who told them to stand down.

If,instead,the Italian guards slaughter the commandos (led by
Otto Skorzeny,who went on to other feats of Nazi derring-do IOTL)
and Mussolini either stays imprisoned or dies in the crossfire,
how would things have unfolded differently?

-=-=-
The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

In article <sed6jc$prq$1@reader1.panix.com>, le@top.put.com (Louis
Epstein) wrote:

> If,instead,the Italian guards slaughter the commandos (led by
> Otto Skorzeny,who went on to other feats of Nazi derring-do IOTL)
> and Mussolini either stays imprisoned or dies in the crossfire,
> how would things have unfolded differently?

Obviously, the Italian Social Republic has less political weight. The
Germans might well set it up anyway, but without Mussolini, fewer
Italians side with it and the Germans.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Social_Republic

This makes lots of tiny differences all over Italy, impossible to
estimate, but generally reducing German strength in Italy. The place
where it might make a significant difference to the course of the larger
war is in the first attacks on the Gothic Line in August and September
1944. Those were only just defeated in OTL. If they succeed, then all of
northern Italy is likely to be taken in autumn 1944.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gothic_Line

That changes several things:

* There is no need to provide troops to hold the French side of the
French-Italian border, which frees them for fighting further north
against Germany. The troops who did the job in OTL were a couple of
divisions formed from the French Resistance, who would have needed
more training before they could fight large bodies of troops.

* Austria and south-east Germany can be bombed from airfields in
northern Italy. That reduces German arms output from those areas
a bit.

* Attacking Austria with troops, through the Alpine passes, with winter
on the way is a very unattractive prospect. It probably makes more
sense for the Allied armies in Italy to move east into northern
Yugoslavia and cut off the German troops trying to retreat from
the Balkans into Austria.

Overall, the war in Europe probably ends a few weeks sooner, and some of
the social after-effects are a bit different.

John

John Dallman <jgd@cix.co.uk> wrote:
> In article <sed6jc$prq$1@reader1.panix.com>, le@top.put.com (Louis
> Epstein) wrote:
>
>> If,instead,the Italian guards slaughter the commandos (led by
>> Otto Skorzeny,who went on to other feats of Nazi derring-do IOTL)
>> and Mussolini either stays imprisoned or dies in the crossfire,
>> how would things have unfolded differently?
>
> Obviously, the Italian Social Republic has less political weight. The
> Germans might well set it up anyway, but without Mussolini, fewer
> Italians side with it and the Germans.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Social_Republic
>
> This makes lots of tiny differences all over Italy, impossible to
> estimate, but generally reducing German strength in Italy. The place
> where it might make a significant difference to the course of the larger
> war is in the first attacks on the Gothic Line in August and September
> 1944. Those were only just defeated in OTL. If they succeed, then all of
> northern Italy is likely to be taken in autumn 1944.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gothic_Line
>
> That changes several things:
>
> * There is no need to provide troops to hold the French side of the
> French-Italian border, which frees them for fighting further north
> against Germany. The troops who did the job in OTL were a couple of
> divisions formed from the French Resistance, who would have needed
> more training before they could fight large bodies of troops.
>
> * Austria and south-east Germany can be bombed from airfields in
> northern Italy. That reduces German arms output from those areas
> a bit.
>
> * Attacking Austria with troops, through the Alpine passes, with winter
> on the way is a very unattractive prospect. It probably makes more
> sense for the Allied armies in Italy to move east into northern
> Yugoslavia and cut off the German troops trying to retreat from
> the Balkans into Austria.
>
> Overall, the war in Europe probably ends a few weeks sooner, and some of
> the social after-effects are a bit different.
>
> John

If Skorzeny is not around to abort Horthy's surrender of Hungary
to the communists,would the Nazis still be able to do it?...or his
disinformation/infiltration campaign in the Battle of the Bulge?

-=-=-
The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

In article <seevj1$j4m$1@reader1.panix.com>, le@top.put.com (Louis
Epstein) wrote:

> If Skorzeny is not around to abort Horthy's surrender of Hungary
> to the communists,would the Nazis still be able to do it?

Probably. The kidnapping of Horthy's son was not a difficult problem, and
the Arrow Cross party did much of the work of the coup. Adrian von
F�lkersam would presumably have been in command, and seems to have been
pretty competent.

> ...or his disinformation/infiltration campaign in the Battle
> of the Bulge?

That didn't have a whole lot of effect, did it?

John

On 8/3/21 11:55 PM, Louis Epstein wrote:
> When King Victor Emanuel of Italy fired and imprisoned Mussolini in 1943,
> the Nazis mounted the Gran Sasso Raid that freed him,the hundreds of
> Italian guards obliging a pro-Nazi Italian general brought along by
> the 16 SS commandos who told them to stand down.
>
> If,instead,the Italian guards slaughter the commandos (led by
> Otto Skorzeny,who went on to other feats of Nazi derring-do IOTL)
> and Mussolini either stays imprisoned or dies in the crossfire,
> how would things have unfolded differently?
Or Skorzeny's glider crashes...

Or the Fieseler Storch he and Mussolini flew out in crashes.

Two possible outcomes:
> Mussolini either stays imprisoned...

Gran Sasso is behind the German lines as they developed in the next
month. At some point the Germans will simply march into Gran Sasso.
Moose will live. It will be a few weeks longer before he can be set
up in the Republicca Sociale Italiana. But he'd already been a
prisoner for several weeks.

> or dies in the crossfire...

Then no RSI. That certainly undermines the morale of the RSI forces,
which feebel as they were did relieve some German troops of assignments
such as guarding the French border after the liberation of southern
France. Germany may have to keep northern Italy under full military
occupation.

Skorzeny being killed or the operation failing probably pre-empts some
later German "commando" operations. E.g. Operation GREIF, the use of
English-speaking infiltrators in the Ardennes offensive.

Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Rich Rostrom <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:
> On 8/3/21 11:55 PM, Louis Epstein wrote:
>> When King Victor Emanuel of Italy fired and imprisoned Mussolini in 1943,
>> the Nazis mounted the Gran Sasso Raid that freed him,the hundreds of
>> Italian guards obliging a pro-Nazi Italian general brought along by
>> the 16 SS commandos who told them to stand down.
>>
>> If,instead,the Italian guards slaughter the commandos (led by
>> Otto Skorzeny,who went on to other feats of Nazi derring-do IOTL)
>> and Mussolini either stays imprisoned or dies in the crossfire,
>> how would things have unfolded differently?
> Or Skorzeny's glider crashes...
>
> Or the Fieseler Storch he and Mussolini flew out in crashes.
>
> Two possible outcomes:
>> Mussolini either stays imprisoned...
>
> Gran Sasso is behind the German lines as they developed in the next
> month. At some point the Germans will simply march into Gran Sasso.
> Moose will live. It will be a few weeks longer before he can be set
> up in the Republicca Sociale Italiana. But he'd already been a
> prisoner for several weeks.

The Italians had been moving him around.
I wonder if they might have chosen to turn him over to the
Allies for some consideration.
>> or dies in the crossfire...
>
> Then no RSI. That certainly undermines the morale of the RSI forces,
> which feebel as they were did relieve some German troops of assignments
> such as guarding the French border after the liberation of southern
> France. Germany may have to keep northern Italy under full military
> occupation.
>
> Skorzeny being killed or the operation failing probably pre-empts some
> later German "commando" operations. E.g. Operation GREIF, the use of
> English-speaking infiltrators in the Ardennes offensive.
>

-=-=-
The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.