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arts / alt.history.what-if / A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

SubjectAuthor
* A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifa425couple
+- Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lostThe Horny Goat
+- Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifGraham Truesdale
+* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifRich Rostrom
|`* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lostThe Horny Goat
| `* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifRich Rostrom
|  +* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lostThe Horny Goat
|  |`* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifRich Rostrom
|  | +- Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifdama...@gmail.com
|  | `* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lostThe Horny Goat
|  |  `* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifRich Rostrom
|  |   `* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lostThe Horny Goat
|  |    `* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifRich Rostrom
|  |     `- Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lostThe Horny Goat
|  `* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifJohn Dallman
|   `- Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifRich Rostrom
`* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifedstas...@gmail.com
 +- Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifDimensional Traveler
 `* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifRich Rostrom
  +- Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lostThe Horny Goat
  `* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lostedstas...@gmail.com
   `* Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA ifRich Rostrom
    `- Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lostThe Horny Goat

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A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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 by: a425couple - Mon, 4 Oct 2021 16:55 UTC

I read:
Geoffrey Thorndyke
Lived in the UK since 1944 September 14

What would have happened to the USA if Britain had been defeated at the
Battle of Britain?
Logic says that the most likely result of the RAF losing the battle
would be a cessation of hostilities. The Germans could not have invaded,
they would never have got past the Navy. The RAF would remain in being
as only 2 Groups were actively opposed to the Luftwaffe during the
battle. So let us say there was a cease fire and Hitler concentrated on
Europe, leaving the UK with it’s Empire.

So that also takes Canada out of the War as well as other Countries in
the Empire. Whether the UK would have stayed in North Africa to protect
our access to the Suez canal, no one knows. What the Italians would do
is also moot. Now as far as I am aware the USA only officially entered
WW2 when Germany declared War on them after the Japanese attack at Pearl
Harbour. If the UK stopped fighting towards the end of 1940 why would
Germany have declared War on the USA over a year after hostilities
ceased with the UK ?

This scenario leaves Germany with Just Russia to defeat, with a much
larger Luftwaffe, hundreds more experienced aircrew, and many more
soldiers, guns and materials as it does not have to defend against RAF
Bomber command.

Arguably you have a German Empire in Europe, a British Empire in many
parts of the World and USA fighting Japan. Only without inputs from
British and European scientists the “Bomb” might have taken longer to
complete and the defeat of Japan delayed.

Logically in this scenario there is no reason why the USA would get
involved in the conflict in Europe. A very different World in fact.

(I disagree with Thorndyke. I can not see WSC doing
a "cessation of hostilities". Then, the much more
important Battle of the Atlantic, would continue.
And in late 1941 the USA would continue to get drawn in.
But then, here are other's opinions:)

Peter Valentine

It seems likely that a cessation of hstilities, which is what Hitler
dreamed of as he never wanted a conflict with Britain, its Commonweath
and Empire, would have led to trade deals with Germany. They would have
loved to buy some of our military equipment (tihnk 4-engined heavy
bombers). A cessation of hostilities would have encouraged such
arrangements.

This, in turn, would have led to the demise of Russia and thus of communism.

How that would have shaped the future is anyone’s guess.

Brythonic Man
September 15

Agreed Geoffrey, coupled with the fact that Germany and Britain would
have the jet engine, which was in operation at the very end of WWII, the
USA was nowhere near. Germany had rocket technology, the V2 was used
against Britain but was developing very quickly to become even more
threatening.

Some of the Royal Navy (the largest in the world at the time) might have
made it to Canada, but most of it would have been taken over by the
Nazis. There would have been no Mers el Kabir incident, so the all the
French Navy would have been intact for the Nazis to use as well. Iceland
would have been occupied by the Germans instead of the British, giving
them control of a substantial part of the North Atlantic.

A Pan European Nazi superpower would have emerged and not having to
worry about Britain and Commonwealth allies, the Soviets would have been
been defeated by the Germans from the west and to a lesser extent the
Japanese from the east, particularly bearing in mind that The Arctic
Convoys delivering much needed armaments to the Soviet Union by the
Royal Navy would never have taken place.

British owned countries in Africa, the Far East and also India may
possibly have continued in some kind of peace deal, but personally I
believe that would have been highly unlikely as Japan had it's eye on
India as well as China.

As you mentioned, the Amerkia Bomber was only on the planning board, but
with the availability of jet powered fighters by 1944 development of jet
powered bombers would not have been far away. Those bombers would have
most certainly been used from Hitler's plan to use the Azores as a base
for attack on the American east coast. The oilfields in the Middle East
would have been under Nazis control, because the German defeat by the
British and ANZAC forces at El Alamein in 1942 would never have taken place.

You mentioned that it would probably have taken longer for the Americans
to develop the Atom bomb without the help of the British, but given that
the British on thier own would have eventually developed the bomb
themselves it would have created a further issue for the USA. In all
probability the Americans would have been ahead of the British in
developing the A-bomb, but of course the British scientists would now be
working for the Nazis. With the USA still well behind in developing the
jet engine, there is no way they could have retaliated with nuclear
bombs as it was more than a 6,000 mile non stop round journey for props,
so potentially by the late 1940’s the east coast of America could have
been hit by the A-bomb with the Amerkia Bomber having been upgraded from
a prop to a jet, plus the threat from the west by the Japanese.

Thankfully, the British were victorious in 1940 by defeating the
Luftwaffe and even if they had lost, the Royal Navy would have been a
major obstacle for the German armed forces to run rampant though the
British Isles.

Stephen Phillips
September 18
Much depends in this scenario on what happens to British oil. If
cessation of hostilities led to trading oil with Germany and perhaps
Japan, then we have a different world indeed, probably no Pearl Harbour
for instance. No trade in oil would likely have led to further conflict
down the line. The USSR without logistical support from the UK and US
would have made the eastern front more uncertain.

Eloise Hellyer
September 22
I agree with everything except the bit about input from European
scientists. They were Jewish and this is why they fled their homes which
were occupied by Germany and went to the States. Of course, after the
war we got Werner con Braun which we wouldn’t have in your scenario, but
that’s a different story.

Martin Hogbin
23h ago
Actually, nuclear weapons could have been developed first by Britain or
Germany or even both working together.

That axis could have had nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.

That would have really changed the world.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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From: lcra...@home.ca (The Horny Goat)
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Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?
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 by: The Horny Goat - Mon, 4 Oct 2021 18:37 UTC

There are a lot of WW2 related tropes in there but to believe ALL of
them puts one in cloud-cuckoo land.

- Canada already had troops in the UK in division strength at the time
of the Battle of Britain but no doubt would have signed on to any
truce with Germany that might have been made

- given Britain would ONLY given up the Suez canal had Germany/Italy
taken it BEFORE a ceasefire, that doesn't give Italy much time to
defeat Britain since Italy declared war after the fall of Paris. There
were no Germany troops in North Africa in division strength until
Jan-Feb 1941. Your scenario posits a ceasefire in Nov/Dec 1940 - so no
German troops in Egypt.
- Certainly no Battle of Britain leaves the Luftwaffe in better shape
for a 1941 invasion of Russia but given in OTL Germany destroys 80% of
the Red Air Force during the first week of the war their air losses in
1941 were minimal (as opposed to later on) and it's difficult to
imagine the Luftwaffe giving much more support in the 1941 campaign
that it did
- there have been a number of works suggesting a Japanese invasion of
the USSR in the event Germany takes AND HOLDS Moscow. It is unclear
whether this means in 1941 or as the major objective of the 1942
campaign. (Which was the main alternative actually discussed in Berlin
to the offensive that got the Germans to the Volga in July 1942 but
was unable to take Stalingrad though it's arguable whether that was
necessary. Certainly what was NOT necessary was any attempt to seize
the Caucasian oilfields - given that the infrastructure simply didn't
exist to move the oil to German refineries in usable quantities. What
WAS achievable was simply denying these oil wells to the Soviets)

Fundamentally however the Russian rail net was concentrated on Moscow
even more than the French rail net was concentrated on Paris and if
Moscow had stayed in German hands Stalin would have had the problem of
having to build additional rail lines under wartime conditions. In the
East, Vladivostok might well have fallen but logistically even with no
Red army opposition at all Japan would have had an extremely difficult
time extracting Russian resources from anywhere east of Baikal (which
most acknowledge as the practical limit of any Japanese advnce) and
getting them to factories in Manchuria or Korea much less Japan.

Even had the Japanese taken all of China they would have faced extreme
problems feeding the population so unless you're talking a genocidal
policy of starving 100+ million Chinese I'm skeptical. One thing to be
sure: had Japan actually done that it is highly likely that if the US
had defeated and occupied Japan by July 1945 once the US found out
about mass starvation in China there would DEFINITELY not be food aid
to Japan in the fall of 1945 which is estimated to have saved 5-10
million Japanese from starvation that winter. Of course if Japan was
still fighting in the fall of 1945 there would have been no US food
aid at all.

- in our world Britain was essentially bankrupt by the end of 1940
(and DEFINITELY by the end of 1941) and FDR extracted a very high
price in terms of control of UK and empire companies passing into US
control. So I'm wondering how you think Britain would have maintained
her business sector following a German ceasefire. (FDR >ALSO< tried
the same tactics vs Canadian companies with less success) This is one
of the key reasons British, Australian and Canadian troops fought so
poorly in the Far East in the first 6 months after Pearl Harbor - poor
leadership and lack of troops.. US efforts in 1941-42 were primarily
to maintain continental Australia and destroy as much Japanese
shipping as possible and they did a very good job on both objectives.

So your Quora people had some good ideas but not nearly coherent
enough to survive analysis by the SHWI/AHWI regulars I'm afraid.

On Mon, 4 Oct 2021 09:55:45 -0700, a425couple <a425couple@hotmail.com>
wrote:

>I read:
>Geoffrey Thorndyke
>Lived in the UK since 1944 September 14
>
>What would have happened to the USA if Britain had been defeated at the
>Battle of Britain?
>Logic says that the most likely result of the RAF losing the battle
>would be a cessation of hostilities. The Germans could not have invaded,
>they would never have got past the Navy. The RAF would remain in being
>as only 2 Groups were actively opposed to the Luftwaffe during the
>battle. So let us say there was a cease fire and Hitler concentrated on
>Europe, leaving the UK with it’s Empire.
>
>So that also takes Canada out of the War as well as other Countries in
>the Empire. Whether the UK would have stayed in North Africa to protect
>our access to the Suez canal, no one knows. What the Italians would do
>is also moot. Now as far as I am aware the USA only officially entered
>WW2 when Germany declared War on them after the Japanese attack at Pearl
>Harbour. If the UK stopped fighting towards the end of 1940 why would
>Germany have declared War on the USA over a year after hostilities
>ceased with the UK ?
>
>This scenario leaves Germany with Just Russia to defeat, with a much
>larger Luftwaffe, hundreds more experienced aircrew, and many more
>soldiers, guns and materials as it does not have to defend against RAF
>Bomber command.
>
>Arguably you have a German Empire in Europe, a British Empire in many
>parts of the World and USA fighting Japan. Only without inputs from
>British and European scientists the “Bomb” might have taken longer to
>complete and the defeat of Japan delayed.
>
>Logically in this scenario there is no reason why the USA would get
>involved in the conflict in Europe. A very different World in fact.
>
>(I disagree with Thorndyke. I can not see WSC doing
>a "cessation of hostilities". Then, the much more
>important Battle of the Atlantic, would continue.
>And in late 1941 the USA would continue to get drawn in.
>But then, here are other's opinions:)
>
>
>Peter Valentine
>
>It seems likely that a cessation of hstilities, which is what Hitler
>dreamed of as he never wanted a conflict with Britain, its Commonweath
>and Empire, would have led to trade deals with Germany. They would have
>loved to buy some of our military equipment (tihnk 4-engined heavy
>bombers). A cessation of hostilities would have encouraged such
>arrangements.
>
>This, in turn, would have led to the demise of Russia and thus of communism.
>
>How that would have shaped the future is anyone’s guess.
>
>Brythonic Man
>September 15
>
>Agreed Geoffrey, coupled with the fact that Germany and Britain would
>have the jet engine, which was in operation at the very end of WWII, the
>USA was nowhere near. Germany had rocket technology, the V2 was used
>against Britain but was developing very quickly to become even more
>threatening.
>
>Some of the Royal Navy (the largest in the world at the time) might have
>made it to Canada, but most of it would have been taken over by the
>Nazis. There would have been no Mers el Kabir incident, so the all the
>French Navy would have been intact for the Nazis to use as well. Iceland
>would have been occupied by the Germans instead of the British, giving
>them control of a substantial part of the North Atlantic.
>
>A Pan European Nazi superpower would have emerged and not having to
>worry about Britain and Commonwealth allies, the Soviets would have been
>been defeated by the Germans from the west and to a lesser extent the
>Japanese from the east, particularly bearing in mind that The Arctic
>Convoys delivering much needed armaments to the Soviet Union by the
>Royal Navy would never have taken place.
>
>British owned countries in Africa, the Far East and also India may
>possibly have continued in some kind of peace deal, but personally I
>believe that would have been highly unlikely as Japan had it's eye on
>India as well as China.
>
>As you mentioned, the Amerkia Bomber was only on the planning board, but
>with the availability of jet powered fighters by 1944 development of jet
>powered bombers would not have been far away. Those bombers would have
>most certainly been used from Hitler's plan to use the Azores as a base
>for attack on the American east coast. The oilfields in the Middle East
>would have been under Nazis control, because the German defeat by the
>British and ANZAC forces at El Alamein in 1942 would never have taken place.
>
>You mentioned that it would probably have taken longer for the Americans
>to develop the Atom bomb without the help of the British, but given that
>the British on thier own would have eventually developed the bomb
>themselves it would have created a further issue for the USA. In all
>probability the Americans would have been ahead of the British in
>developing the A-bomb, but of course the British scientists would now be
>working for the Nazis. With the USA still well behind in developing the
>jet engine, there is no way they could have retaliated with nuclear
>bombs as it was more than a 6,000 mile non stop round journey for props,
>so potentially by the late 1940’s the east coast of America could have
>been hit by the A-bomb with the Amerkia Bomber having been upgraded from
>a prop to a jet, plus the threat from the west by the Japanese.
>
>Thankfully, the British were victorious in 1940 by defeating the
>Luftwaffe and even if they had lost, the Royal Navy would have been a
>major obstacle for the German armed forces to run rampant though the
>British Isles.
>
>Stephen Phillips
>September 18
>Much depends in this scenario on what happens to British oil. If
>cessation of hostilities led to trading oil with Germany and perhaps
>Japan, then we have a different world indeed, probably no Pearl Harbour
>for instance. No trade in oil would likely have led to further conflict
>down the line. The USSR without logistical support from the UK and US
>would have made the eastern front more uncertain.
>
>
>Eloise Hellyer
>September 22
>I agree with everything except the bit about input from European
>scientists. They were Jewish and this is why they fled their homes which
>were occupied by Germany and went to the States. Of course, after the
>war we got Werner con Braun which we wouldn’t have in your scenario, but
>that’s a different story.
>
>
>Martin Hogbin
>23h ago
>Actually, nuclear weapons could have been developed first by Britain or
>Germany or even both working together.
>
>That axis could have had nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.
>
>That would have really changed the world.


Click here to read the complete article
Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
Britain lost BOB?
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 by: Graham Truesdale - Mon, 4 Oct 2021 20:57 UTC

On Monday, October 4, 2021 at 5:55:46 PM UTC+1, a425couple wrote:
> I read:
> Geoffrey Thorndyke
> Lived in the UK since 1944 September 14
>
> What would have happened to the USA if Britain had been defeated at the
> Battle of Britain?
> Logic says that the most likely result of the RAF losing the battle
> would be a cessation of hostilities. The Germans could not have invaded,
> they would never have got past the Navy. The RAF would remain in being
> as only 2 Groups were actively opposed to the Luftwaffe during the
> battle. So let us say there was a cease fire and Hitler concentrated on
> Europe, leaving the UK with it’s Empire.
>
> So that also takes Canada out of the War as well as other Countries in
> the Empire. Whether the UK would have stayed in North Africa to protect
> our access to the Suez canal, no one knows. What the Italians would do
> is also moot. Now as far as I am aware the USA only officially entered
> WW2 when Germany declared War on them after the Japanese attack at Pearl
> Harbour. If the UK stopped fighting towards the end of 1940 why would
> Germany have declared War on the USA over a year after hostilities
> ceased with the UK ?
>
> This scenario leaves Germany with Just Russia to defeat, with a much
> larger Luftwaffe, hundreds more experienced aircrew, and many more
> soldiers, guns and materials as it does not have to defend against RAF
> Bomber command.
>
> Arguably you have a German Empire in Europe, a British Empire in many
> parts of the World and USA fighting Japan. Only without inputs from
> British and European scientists the “Bomb” might have taken longer to
> complete and the defeat of Japan delayed.
>
> Logically in this scenario there is no reason why the USA would get
> involved in the conflict in Europe. A very different World in fact.
>
> (I disagree with Thorndyke. I can not see WSC doing
> a "cessation of hostilities". Then, the much more
> important Battle of the Atlantic, would continue.
> And in late 1941 the USA would continue to get drawn in.
> But then, here are other's opinions:)
>
>
> Peter Valentine
>
> It seems likely that a cessation of hstilities, which is what Hitler
> dreamed of as he never wanted a conflict with Britain, its Commonweath
> and Empire, would have led to trade deals with Germany. They would have
> loved to buy some of our military equipment (tihnk 4-engined heavy
> bombers). A cessation of hostilities would have encouraged such
> arrangements.
>
> This, in turn, would have led to the demise of Russia and thus of communism.
>
> How that would have shaped the future is anyone’s guess.
>
> Brythonic Man
> September 15
>
> Agreed Geoffrey, coupled with the fact that Germany and Britain would
> have the jet engine, which was in operation at the very end of WWII, the
> USA was nowhere near. Germany had rocket technology, the V2 was used
> against Britain but was developing very quickly to become even more
> threatening.
>
> Some of the Royal Navy (the largest in the world at the time) might have
> made it to Canada, but most of it would have been taken over by the
> Nazis. There would have been no Mers el Kabir incident, so the all the
> French Navy would have been intact for the Nazis to use as well. Iceland
> would have been occupied by the Germans instead of the British, giving
> them control of a substantial part of the North Atlantic.
>
> A Pan European Nazi superpower would have emerged and not having to
> worry about Britain and Commonwealth allies, the Soviets would have been
> been defeated by the Germans from the west and to a lesser extent the
> Japanese from the east, particularly bearing in mind that The Arctic
> Convoys delivering much needed armaments to the Soviet Union by the
> Royal Navy would never have taken place.
>
> British owned countries in Africa, the Far East and also India may
> possibly have continued in some kind of peace deal, but personally I
> believe that would have been highly unlikely as Japan had it's eye on
> India as well as China.
>
> As you mentioned, the Amerkia Bomber was only on the planning board, but
> with the availability of jet powered fighters by 1944 development of jet
> powered bombers would not have been far away. Those bombers would have
> most certainly been used from Hitler's plan to use the Azores as a base
> for attack on the American east coast. The oilfields in the Middle East
> would have been under Nazis control, because the German defeat by the
> British and ANZAC forces at El Alamein in 1942 would never have taken place.
>
> You mentioned that it would probably have taken longer for the Americans
> to develop the Atom bomb without the help of the British, but given that
> the British on thier own would have eventually developed the bomb
> themselves it would have created a further issue for the USA. In all
> probability the Americans would have been ahead of the British in
> developing the A-bomb, but of course the British scientists would now be
> working for the Nazis. With the USA still well behind in developing the
> jet engine, there is no way they could have retaliated with nuclear
> bombs as it was more than a 6,000 mile non stop round journey for props,
> so potentially by the late 1940’s the east coast of America could have
> been hit by the A-bomb with the Amerkia Bomber having been upgraded from
> a prop to a jet, plus the threat from the west by the Japanese.
>
> Thankfully, the British were victorious in 1940 by defeating the
> Luftwaffe and even if they had lost, the Royal Navy would have been a
> major obstacle for the German armed forces to run rampant though the
> British Isles.
>
> Stephen Phillips
> September 18
> Much depends in this scenario on what happens to British oil. If
> cessation of hostilities led to trading oil with Germany and perhaps
> Japan, then we have a different world indeed, probably no Pearl Harbour
> for instance. No trade in oil would likely have led to further conflict
> down the line. The USSR without logistical support from the UK and US
> would have made the eastern front more uncertain.
>
>
> Eloise Hellyer
> September 22
> I agree with everything except the bit about input from European
> scientists. They were Jewish and this is why they fled their homes which
> were occupied by Germany and went to the States. Of course, after the
> war we got Werner con Braun which we wouldn’t have in your scenario, but
> that’s a different story.
>
>
> Martin Hogbin
> 23h ago
> Actually, nuclear weapons could have been developed first by Britain or
> Germany or even both working together.
>
> That axis could have had nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.
>
> That would have really changed the world.
>
There is a big difference between

1. A ceasefire, possibly leading to Britain and Germany working together.

2. A return to the 'Phony War' of 1939/40, but with France occupied by Germany.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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From: rrost...@comcast.net (Rich Rostrom)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if,soc.history.war.misc
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
Britain lost BOB?
Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2021 18:31:07 -0500
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Mon, 4 Oct 2021 23:31 UTC

On 10/4/21 11:55 AM, a425couple wrote:
> I read:
> Geoffrey Thorndyke
> Lived in the UK since 1944 September 14
>
> What would have happened to the USA if Britain had been defeated at the
> Battle of Britain?
> Logic says that the most likely result of the RAF losing the battle
> would be a cessation of hostilities.

Neither HItler nor Churchill were being "logical" at this time.

Germany definitely intended to attempt the invasion of Britain if
the Luftwaffe gained air supremacy over the Channel. THe attack
wold almost certainly fail, with significant losses to both the
German army and the Royal Navy.

I doubt very much whether either side would want a truce after that.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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From: lcra...@home.ca (The Horny Goat)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?
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 by: The Horny Goat - Tue, 5 Oct 2021 01:05 UTC

On Mon, 4 Oct 2021 18:31:07 -0500, Rich Rostrom <rrostrom@comcast.net>
wrote:

>Neither HItler nor Churchill were being "logical" at this time.
>
>Germany definitely intended to attempt the invasion of Britain if
>the Luftwaffe gained air supremacy over the Channel. THe attack
>wold almost certainly fail, with significant losses to both the
>German army and the Royal Navy.
>
>I doubt very much whether either side would want a truce after that.

I've wargamed this specific scenario and 3 things are clear:

(1) there is no question the Germans could have got across the Channel
in sufficient force to conquer the UK if left alone - Britain simply
has too long a southern and eastern coastline to cover it all. But
then just because German troops land on the southern coast it doesn't
mean swastika flags flying over Westminster and Buckingham palace!

(Quite apart from anything else Churchill wrote that if there were
established German beach heads on UK soil - particularly if
reconaissance showed they were being successfully resupplied - he
would have authorized use of poison gas on British soil to defeat
landings. There is no reason to believe this was postwar 20-20
hindsight)

(2) obviously no one expects them to have been left alone BUT the
Royal Navy doesn't HAVE to cover their entire coast line once there is
a German landing anywhere in the UK. At that point they ONLY have to
cover the section of coast around the German beach head and it won't
take more than 24-36 hours for Royal Navy to essentially shut down any
resupply by sea. Germany simply didn't have the sealift to make
multiple combat sealifts - even resupply would have been challenging.

(3) Nor are the German forces able to carry more than a week's worth
of ammunition and POL (petroleum, oil and lubricants). Nor is the
Luftwaffe capable of delivering sufficient supplies even with zero RAF
interference as was amply demonstrated at Stalingrad (though to be
sure SE England wouldn't have provided the weather challenges on the
Lower Volga in Oct-Dec 1942 - which was NOT a particularly severe
Russian winter unlike December 1941)

Bonaparte could have managed it but a WW2 army can't forage for hay
the way a Napoleonic army could.Though obviously neither an 1812 or
1940 army function without ammunition resupply.

When I started in SHWI/AHWI in the early 1990s I was one of those who
believed Hitler missed a golden opportunity to win in 1940 by seaborne
invasion. I lost that illusion long ago.

The ONLY British defeat scenario is a failure of will resulting in an
early armistice. Which is possible since it was by no means inevitable
Britain would have an implacable foe in London.

On the other hand, given the German 1940 plan 50-100 anti-tank guns of
the type France had in 1940 could have prevented a German crossing at
Sedan and their subsequent charge to the mouth of the Somme at
Abbeville with the most likely scenario degenerating into a war of
attrition similar to 1915-16. THAT is a very different WW2 and one the
Germans are likely to lose by 1942 (have gamed that scenario too - the
size of the respective armies make a breakthrough quite unlikely)

In that scenario France suffers enormous damage but is mostly not
occupied while Belgium and the Netherlands suffer even more
particularly when the German economy gets into trouble. Think the
Dutch winter of 1944-45 lasting 2-3 years. In this case Japan probably
continues fighting in China but makes no move against the US or UK.

I know some of this is pure speculation but again I've gamed about a
dozen Sealion scenarios and a "Guderian stopped in 1940" scenario
(twice) and a Sealion assault and a 1940 French attack scenario are
quite different scenarios neither of which Hitler was prepared for
economically.

What Russia does in 1943-44 if the Germans haven't made peace with
Britain and France is anybody's guess. But the Red Air Force wouldn't
have lost 80% of it's strength on day 1 against Germany - that's
clear.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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From: rrost...@comcast.net (Rich Rostrom)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
Britain lost BOB?
Date: Tue, 5 Oct 2021 13:44:16 -0500
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Tue, 5 Oct 2021 18:44 UTC

On 10/4/21 8:05 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:

> I've wargamed this specific scenario and 3 things are clear:
>
> (1) there is no question the Germans could have got across the Channel
> in sufficient force to conquer the UK if left alone ...

But IMO there is no question that if the Germans attempted to
move troops across the with the methods available to them in 1940,
they would not have been left alone, and most of those troops
would have been lost to British naval attack.

> The ONLY British defeat scenario is a failure of will resulting in an
> early armistice. Which is possible since it was by no means inevitable
> Britain would have an implacable foe in London.

The only scenario possible in 1940-1941, perhaps.

_If_ Germany did not invade the USSR, but instead concentrated all its
resources on establishing air _supremacy_ over the Channel, building
up "light" naval forces to secure the the waters of the Channel, and
building a fleet of proper amphibious craft - then by 1942, Germsny
would have a very good chance of invading Britain successfully.

This also assumes the US and USSR remain neutral.

And throw in one _soupçon_: Pétain dies in April 1941, Darlan becomes
head of Vichy,
and sells the Enigma secret to the Germans. France in fact was party
to the Enigma secret in 1940 - the Polish exile codebreakers worked
for them, and French intelligence kept them employed after the
surrender. Darlan was in charge of reorganizing the intelligence
agencies, and may have known. Or if he became head of Vichy, might
have learned then. And he was a complete opportunist.

The loss of Enigma SIGINT also deprives Britain of valuable
intelligence about the prep for Operation SEEPFERD.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?
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 by: The Horny Goat - Tue, 5 Oct 2021 19:31 UTC

On Tue, 5 Oct 2021 13:44:16 -0500, Rich Rostrom <rrostrom@comcast.net>
wrote:

>On 10/4/21 8:05 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
>
>> I've wargamed this specific scenario and 3 things are clear:
>>
>> (1) there is no question the Germans could have got across the Channel
>> in sufficient force to conquer the UK if left alone ...
>
>But IMO there is no question that if the Germans attempted to
>move troops across the with the methods available to them in 1940,
>they would not have been left alone, and most of those troops
>would have been lost to British naval attack.

My "left alone" was a sarcastic comment which they obviously would not
have been either by the Royal Army, RN or RAF.

>> The ONLY British defeat scenario is a failure of will resulting in an
>> early armistice. Which is possible since it was by no means inevitable
>> Britain would have an implacable foe in London.
>
>The only scenario possible in 1940-1941, perhaps.

I'm confused - are you saying someone as implacable as Churchill was
inevitable? The main thing convincing Chamberlain that he had to leave
office was his cancer diagnosis - and I'm not aware of any info
suggesting when he got the diagnosis. Based on his behaviour I'd guess
sometime during the winter of 1939/40 since he seemed plucky enough
until the German attack. But without definite data we simply don't
know for sure. Obviously for a wartime prime minister receiving such
news would make a huge difference though even had he been healthy it
is difficult to imagine him running a war of 5+ years.

Important note: Chamberlain left office well before Dunkirk. Had he
stayed in office Dunkirk would probably have ended his career.

I simply cannot imagine Chamberlain making a speech anything like the
"Finest Hour" speech. And no question Churchill's speechifying
especially in 1940-41 made a huge difference in British morale. The
idea of Neville Chamberlain saying "we shall fight them on the
beaches, we shall fight them in the air, we shall NEVER surrender" is
laughable.

>_If_ Germany did not invade the USSR, but instead concentrated all its
>resources on establishing air _supremacy_ over the Channel, building
>up "light" naval forces to secure the the waters of the Channel, and
>building a fleet of proper amphibious craft - then by 1942, Germsny
>would have a very good chance of invading Britain successfully.

Given the major foe preventing a German invasion was the Royal Navy
and given the Luftwaffe had NO air launched torpedo capability at all
how do you think the Germans could have made the Channel much more
dangerous for the Royal Navy? Even after Taranto (Nov 1940) there's no
evidence that the Luftwaffe ever decided developing a capability to
attack major ships by air was important.

If there's another way of creating a 'safe' German sea lane to England
in 1939-42 I would like to hear it.

On SHWI one time I made the comment that given that the "Charleton
Heston option" was one of the more effective ways of getting the
Wehrmacht across the Channel Sealion was DEFINITELY in trouble.
(referring to Heston in The Ten Commandments playing Moses touching
his staff to the water and parting the waves). Yes I'm aware sarcasm
often doesn't play well on Usenet!

>This also assumes the US and USSR remain neutral.

How do you get that when both were attacked without declaration of
war? Obviously the attacks were not foreordained by Japan or Germany
but were the result of perceived economic pressure by those countries.

>And throw in one _soupçon_: Pétain dies in April 1941, Darlan becomes
>head of Vichy,
>and sells the Enigma secret to the Germans. France in fact was party
>to the Enigma secret in 1940 - the Polish exile codebreakers worked
>for them, and French intelligence kept them employed after the
>surrender. Darlan was in charge of reorganizing the intelligence
>agencies, and may have known. Or if he became head of Vichy, might
>have learned then. And he was a complete opportunist.

Not to mention far far more pro-German than Petain.

>The loss of Enigma SIGINT also deprives Britain of valuable
>intelligence about the prep for Operation SEEPFERD.

It would definitely increase U-boat sinkings - Churchill (in his 6
volume history) says that losses of 800k tons a month for 6+ months
could have caused UK capitulation but that this level was only reached
for 2-3 months in 1943 when both US and Canadian naval forces took on
most of the anti-U-boat effort in the western Atlantic.

Not sure how you get that happening earlier - in spring of 1942 the
U-boats were having a 'Happy Time' in the Gulf of St Lawrence (not to
mention on the entire US east coast) between Gaspe and the north side
of the Gulf.

Politically Mackenzie King had to focus on building corvettes to stop
that immediate threat and once he did the corvettes went further and
further out to sea and Churchill said they were invaluable escorts in
1943-44.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if

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From: jgd...@cix.co.uk (John Dallman)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
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 by: John Dallman - Tue, 5 Oct 2021 20:55 UTC

In article <sji6e2$9av$1@dont-email.me>, rrostrom@comcast.net (Rich
Rostrom) wrote:

> The loss of Enigma SIGINT also deprives Britain of valuable
> intelligence about the prep for Operation SEEPFERD.

What was that operation?

John

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
Britain lost BOB?
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Wed, 6 Oct 2021 19:06 UTC

On 10/5/21 2:31 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
> On Tue, 5 Oct 2021 13:44:16 -0500, Rich Rostrom <rrostrom@comcast.net>
> wrote:
>
>>> The ONLY British defeat scenario is a failure of will resulting in an
>>> early armistice. Which is possible since it was by no means inevitable
>>> Britain would have an implacable foe in London.
>>
>> The only scenario possible in 1940-1941, perhaps.
>
> I'm confused - are you saying someone as implacable as Churchill was
> inevitable?

No. I agree with you that "the only possible British defeat scenario"
in 1940 "is a failure of will".

> Given the major foe preventing a German invasion was the Royal Navy
> and given the Luftwaffe had NO air launched torpedo capability at all

The He 111 was used extensively as a torpedo bomber.

> how do you think the Germans could have made the Channel much more
> dangerous for the Royal Navy? Even after Taranto (Nov 1940) there's no
> evidence that the Luftwaffe ever decided developing a capability to
> attack major ships by air was important.

Aside from the use of the He 111 as a torpedo bomber?

The Fritz X guided glider bomb.
The Hs 293 rocket-asssisted guided glider bomb.

The Germans could also call on the Regia Aeronautica for torpedo
bombers.

> If there's another way of creating a 'safe' German sea lane to England
> in 1939-42 I would like to hear it.

Deploy 250 R-boote (MTBs), 50 DEs, 10 CLs.

>> This also assumes the US and USSR remain neutral.
>
> How do you get that when both were attacked without declaration of war?

Japan doesn't attack the US. The US being strictly neutral offers no
support to Britain and the Netherlands, which don't embargo oil.

And I included Germany not invading the USSR as a precondition.

>> The loss of Enigma SIGINT also deprives Britain of valuable
>> intelligence about the prep for Operation SEEPFERD.
>
> It would definitely increase U-boat sinkings - Churchill (in his 6
> volume history) says that losses of 800k tons a month for 6+ months
> could have caused UK capitulation but that this level was only reached
> for 2-3 months in 1943...

????

The peak loss in 1943 was about 360K, in IIRC March, when the Germans
tweaked TRITON (the U-boat Enigma key) and Station X lost it for three
weeks.

Losses approached 800K a few times in 1942 and I believe once in early
1941.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

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From: rrost...@comcast.net (Rich Rostrom)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2021 14:08:14 -0500
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Wed, 6 Oct 2021 19:08 UTC

On 10/5/21 3:54 PM, John Dallman wrote:
> In article <sji6e2$9av$1@dont-email.me>, rrostrom@comcast.net (Rich
> Rostrom) wrote:
>
>> The loss of Enigma SIGINT also deprives Britain of valuable
>> intelligence about the prep for Operation SEEPFERD.
>
> What was that operation?
>
> John
>
The hypothetical German invasion of Britain in an alternate 1942.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
Britain lost BOB?
From: damark...@gmail.com (dama...@gmail.com)
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 by: dama...@gmail.com - Wed, 6 Oct 2021 19:34 UTC

On Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 3:06:22 PM UTC-4, Rich Rostrom wrote:
> On 10/5/21 2:31 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
> > On Tue, 5 Oct 2021 13:44:16 -0500, Rich Rostrom <rros...@comcast.net>
> > wrote:
> >
> >>> The ONLY British defeat scenario is a failure of will resulting in an
> >>> early armistice. Which is possible since it was by no means inevitable
> >>> Britain would have an implacable foe in London.
> >>
> >> The only scenario possible in 1940-1941, perhaps.
> >
> > I'm confused - are you saying someone as implacable as Churchill was
> > inevitable?
> No. I agree with you that "the only possible British defeat scenario"
> in 1940 "is a failure of will".
> > Given the major foe preventing a German invasion was the Royal Navy
> > and given the Luftwaffe had NO air launched torpedo capability at all
> The He 111 was used extensively as a torpedo bomber.
> > how do you think the Germans could have made the Channel much more
> > dangerous for the Royal Navy? Even after Taranto (Nov 1940) there's no
> > evidence that the Luftwaffe ever decided developing a capability to
> > attack major ships by air was important.
> Aside from the use of the He 111 as a torpedo bomber?
>
> The Fritz X guided glider bomb.
> The Hs 293 rocket-asssisted guided glider bomb.
>
> The Germans could also call on the Regia Aeronautica for torpedo
> bombers.
> > If there's another way of creating a 'safe' German sea lane to England
> > in 1939-42 I would like to hear it.
> Deploy 250 R-boote (MTBs), 50 DEs, 10 CLs.
> >> This also assumes the US and USSR remain neutral.
> >
> > How do you get that when both were attacked without declaration of war?
> Japan doesn't attack the US. The US being strictly neutral offers no
> support to Britain and the Netherlands, which don't embargo oil.
>
> And I included Germany not invading the USSR as a precondition.
> >> The loss of Enigma SIGINT also deprives Britain of valuable
> >> intelligence about the prep for Operation SEEPFERD.
> >
> > It would definitely increase U-boat sinkings - Churchill (in his 6
> > volume history) says that losses of 800k tons a month for 6+ months
> > could have caused UK capitulation but that this level was only reached
> > for 2-3 months in 1943...
>
> ????
>
> The peak loss in 1943 was about 360K, in IIRC March, when the Germans
> tweaked TRITON (the U-boat Enigma key) and Station X lost it for three
> weeks.
>
> Losses approached 800K a few times in 1942 and I believe once in early
> 1941.
> --
> Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
> --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

The He-111 was not used as a torpedo bomber until well into 1942. Another oversight by the Germans.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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From: lcra...@home.ca (The Horny Goat)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?
Message-ID: <5njslg5a1ppgsgf9u4v3nhelnbm40dv0f0@4ax.com>
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 by: The Horny Goat - Thu, 7 Oct 2021 01:49 UTC

On Wed, 6 Oct 2021 14:06:19 -0500, Rich Rostrom <rrostrom@comcast.net>
wrote:

>On 10/5/21 2:31 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
>> On Tue, 5 Oct 2021 13:44:16 -0500, Rich Rostrom <rrostrom@comcast.net>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Given the major foe preventing a German invasion was the Royal Navy
>> and given the Luftwaffe had NO air launched torpedo capability at all
>
>The He 111 was used extensively as a torpedo bomber.

Not in 1940-41 it wasn't which is the era we're talking about.

>The Fritz X guided glider bomb.
>The Hs 293 rocket-asssisted guided glider bomb.

Both of these being late war equipment. From a naval point of view the
war was dead lost by August 1943. Look at the ratio of sinkings to
U-boat losses. If you REALLY want proof look at the same numbers by
1944.

>The Germans could also call on the Regia Aeronautica for torpedo
>bombers.

Again by the surrender of Italy, the naval war was completely lost.

>> If there's another way of creating a 'safe' German sea lane to England
>> in 1939-42 I would like to hear it.
>
>Deploy 250 R-boote (MTBs), 50 DEs, 10 CLs.

Yup - but what does Germany NOT build to get these numbers?

If you're talking before 12/31/1941 I'm skeptical Germany has the
naval slips to build that many.

>>> This also assumes the US and USSR remain neutral.
>>
>> How do you get that when both were attacked without declaration of war?
>
>Japan doesn't attack the US. The US being strictly neutral offers no
>support to Britain and the Netherlands, which don't embargo oil.

Being "strictly neutral" on the scale of what the US gave/sold to
Britain in 1941?!?

>And I included Germany not invading the USSR as a precondition.
>
>>> The loss of Enigma SIGINT also deprives Britain of valuable
>>> intelligence about the prep for Operation SEEPFERD.
>>
>> It would definitely increase U-boat sinkings - Churchill (in his 6
>> volume history) says that losses of 800k tons a month for 6+ months
>> could have caused UK capitulation but that this level was only reached
>> for 2-3 months in 1943...
>
>????
>
>The peak loss in 1943 was about 360K, in IIRC March, when the Germans
>tweaked TRITON (the U-boat Enigma key) and Station X lost it for three
>weeks.

Uboat.net is an interesting site which names each Allied ship sunk by
name and tonnage and records 741k tons for March 1943. I'd be
interested in the difference between your tonnage figure and theirs.

https://uboat.net/allies/merchants/losses_year.html?qdate=1943-03

>
>Losses approached 800K a few times in 1942 and I believe once in early
>1941.

Specifically 05/42 and 06/42 were the worst in 1942.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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From: rrost...@comcast.net (Rich Rostrom)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
Britain lost BOB?
Date: Thu, 7 Oct 2021 09:48:25 -0500
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Thu, 7 Oct 2021 14:48 UTC

On 10/6/21 8:49 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
> On Wed, 6 Oct 2021 14:06:19 -0500, Rich Rostrom <rrostrom@comcast.net>
> wrote:
>
>> On 10/5/21 2:31 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
>>> On Tue, 5 Oct 2021 13:44:16 -0500, Rich Rostrom <rrostrom@comcast.net>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Given the major foe preventing a German invasion was the Royal Navy
>>> and given the Luftwaffe had NO air launched torpedo capability at all
>>
>> The He 111 was used extensively as a torpedo bomber.
>
> Not in 1940-41 it wasn't which is the era we're talking about.

I suggested that Germany might be able to invade Britain by _1942_.

>> The Fritz X guided glider bomb.
>> The Hs 293 rocket-asssisted guided glider bomb.
>
> Both of these being late war equipment.

You asserted that the Luftwaffe _never_ thought about the need
to attack large surface warships. Clearly they did. If you want
top argue that it would be a major violation of the laws of nature
for Germany to develop such weapons _one_ _millisecond_ sooner
than they did OTL... well, that's yout braineater.

>> The Germans could also call on the Regia Aeronautica for torpedo
>> bombers.
>
> Again by the surrender of Italy, the naval war was completely lost.

What on earth does the surrender of Italy in OTL have to do with
the availability of Italian aircraft in a radically different ATL?

>>> If there's another way of creating a 'safe' German sea lane to England
>>> in 1939-42 I would like to hear it.
>>
>> Deploy 250 R-boote (MTBs), 50 DEs, 10 CLs.
>
> Yup - but what does Germany NOT build to get these numbers?

Collectively, thgat program would require about 150,000 tonnes
of steel. Germany produced about 16M tonnes of steel per year.
I doubt if the additional naval construction would have a _major_
impact on overall production.

>> Japan doesn't attack the US. The US being strictly neutral offers no
>> support to Britain and the Netherlands, which don't embargo oil.
>
> Being "strictly neutral" on the scale of what the US gave/sold to
> Britain in 1941?!?

Obviously not. You seem to have great difficulty imagining tha
US policy in this period could have been different.

> Uboat.net is an interesting site which names each Allied ship sunk by
> name and tonnage and records 741k tons for March 1943. I'd be
> interested in the difference between your tonnage figure and theirs.

I misremembered. The number I have for March 1943 is 693,389 tons, taken
from the statistical appendix to _U-505_ by RAdm Dan Gallery.

I was thinking of July 1943 (365,398 tons). That was the last peak in
sinkings. The Allies sank 41 U-boats in May, and the Germans backed off
in June, losing on 17 but sinking only 123,825 tons. They pressed again
in July, but lost another 37 boats.

>> Losses approached 800K a few times in 1942 and I believe once in early
>> 1941.
>
> Specifically 05/42 and 06/42 were the worst in 1942.

June and November, per Gallery.
--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

<ukbulg1s3uli133ah50hnnsjijkbhic3c8@4ax.com>

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From: lcra...@home.ca (The Horny Goat)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?
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 by: The Horny Goat - Thu, 7 Oct 2021 17:50 UTC

On Thu, 7 Oct 2021 09:48:25 -0500, Rich Rostrom <rrostrom@comcast.net>
wrote:

>You asserted that the Luftwaffe _never_ thought about the need
>to attack large surface warships. Clearly they did. If you want
>top argue that it would be a major violation of the laws of nature
>for Germany to develop such weapons _one_ _millisecond_ sooner
>than they did OTL... well, that's yout braineater.
>
>>> The Germans could also call on the Regia Aeronautica for torpedo
>>> bombers.

No question the Luftwaffe THOUGHT about it but if they came anywhere
near the level of development the Americans or Japanese or even the
British did this is news to me. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but I
would have thought the Taranto raid would have had a taser-like effect
on most European airforces and the RAF squadron that did it was fairly
primitive by late war standards or even the standards of Midway which
was close to the era we're discussing.
>> Again by the surrender of Italy, the naval war was completely lost.
>
>What on earth does the surrender of Italy in OTL have to do with
>the availability of Italian aircraft in a radically different ATL?

In OTL the Germans did seize some Italian aircraft but by 1943 the
Royal Navy was definitely "ruling the waves" of the Mediterranean. The
Italian navy was confined to port and the Med was not a major location
for sinkings by U-boats.

>>>> If there's another way of creating a 'safe' German sea lane to England
>>>> in 1939-42 I would like to hear it.
>>>
>>> Deploy 250 R-boote (MTBs), 50 DEs, 10 CLs.
>>
>> Yup - but what does Germany NOT build to get these numbers?
>
>Collectively, thgat program would require about 150,000 tonnes
>of steel. Germany produced about 16M tonnes of steel per year.
>I doubt if the additional naval construction would have a _major_
>impact on overall production.

Obviously the Reich was producing large amounts of steel but when I
talked about slips I was talking naval shipyards and Germany simply
didn't have a lot of capacity to build large numbers of surface ships
and building more would require tradeoffs with other port buildings -
presumably by reducing the number of U-boats capable of being built.
>
>>> Japan doesn't attack the US. The US being strictly neutral offers no
>>> support to Britain and the Netherlands, which don't embargo oil.
>>
>> Being "strictly neutral" on the scale of what the US gave/sold to
>> Britain in 1941?!?
>
>Obviously not. You seem to have great difficulty imagining tha
>US policy in this period could have been different.

Obviously it could have been different but the only sure way would be
to have somebody else in the White House 1940-44 so to me your
scenario requires FDR not to seek a third term. In my opinion health
would be the factor most likely to bring this about. Something on the
scale of Chamberlain's cancer diagnosis around the same time.
>
>> Uboat.net is an interesting site which names each Allied ship sunk by
>> name and tonnage and records 741k tons for March 1943. I'd be
>> interested in the difference between your tonnage figure and theirs.
>
>I misremembered. The number I have for March 1943 is 693,389 tons, taken
>from the statistical appendix to _U-505_ by RAdm Dan Gallery.
>
>I was thinking of July 1943 (365,398 tons). That was the last peak in
>sinkings. The Allies sank 41 U-boats in May, and the Germans backed off
>in June, losing on 17 but sinking only 123,825 tons. They pressed again
>in July, but lost another 37 boats.
>
>>> Losses approached 800K a few times in 1942 and I believe once in early
>>> 1941.
>>
>> Specifically 05/42 and 06/42 were the worst in 1942.
>
>June and November, per Gallery.

Agreed on November (which I overlooked) Uboat.net reports 877000 tons
in 11/42 which is certainly one of the worst months for the Allies.

https://uboat.net/allies/merchants/losses_year.html?qdate=1942-11

Note the map of sinkings for that month - I would have not expected
the east coast of South Africa to be a major feasting ground for the
U-boats but... Further losses for 12/42 were about 1/2 of November's
so presumably the RN and USN were busy that month as losses were
roughly half the previous month.

No question 1942 was the worst year for sinkings as the Allies lost
more ships in 1942 than the entire war prior to that combined.

But equally no question your "no US support to Britain" probably means
capitulation in some form since the UK was effectively bankrupted by
"cash and carry" by the end of 1940 and there's no question that
policy decisively altered the economic balance between UK and the
empire and the United States in the latter's favor with results we
know to this day. (The German economy wasn't in all that much better
shape which is why they looted the occupied countries so effectively)
>--
>Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
>--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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From: rrost...@comcast.net (Rich Rostrom)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
Britain lost BOB?
Date: Fri, 8 Oct 2021 14:15:39 -0500
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Fri, 8 Oct 2021 19:15 UTC

On 10/7/21 12:50 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
>> Obviously not. You seem to have great difficulty imagining tha
>> US policy in this period could have been different.
> Obviously it could have been different but the only sure way would be
> to have somebody else in the White House 1940-44 so to me your
> scenario requires FDR not to seek a third term.

Which was a possibility.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?
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 by: The Horny Goat - Sun, 10 Oct 2021 00:57 UTC

On Fri, 8 Oct 2021 14:15:39 -0500, Rich Rostrom <rrostrom@comcast.net>
wrote:

>On 10/7/21 12:50 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
>>> Obviously not. You seem to have great difficulty imagining tha
>>> US policy in this period could have been different.
>> Obviously it could have been different but the only sure way would be
>> to have somebody else in the White House 1940-44 so to me your
>> scenario requires FDR not to seek a third term.
>
>Which was a possibility.

Durned tootin'.

And we've discussed this several times both here ans SHWI over the
years.

All I'm saying is that with a different president 1940-44 you are
pretty much guaranteed to have a diferent take on the challenges of
that particular presidency.

Of course events change things too. If Pearl Harbor happens 14 Dec
1941 (or doesn't happen at all) then FDR's 8 Dec 1941 goes somewhat
differently than in our time line.....

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
Britain lost BOB?
From: edstasia...@gmail.com (edstas...@gmail.com)
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 by: edstas...@gmail.com - Thu, 14 Oct 2021 20:49 UTC

> a425couple
> I read:
> Geoffrey Thorndyke
>
> What would have happened to the USA if Britain had been defeated at the
> Battle of Britain?
> Logic says that the most likely result of the RAF losing the battle would
> be a cessation of hostilities. The Germans could not have invaded, they
> would never have got past the Navy.

If the Germans defeat the RAF, the Royal Navy doesn’t stand a chance
against German airpower if they steam into the narrow confines of the
English Channel to try and prevent an invasion of the UK.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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From: dtra...@sonic.net (Dimensional Traveler)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
Britain lost BOB?
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 by: Dimensional Traveler - Thu, 14 Oct 2021 23:59 UTC

On 10/14/2021 1:49 PM, edstas...@gmail.com wrote:
>> a425couple
>> I read:
>> Geoffrey Thorndyke
>>
>> What would have happened to the USA if Britain had been defeated at the
>> Battle of Britain?
>> Logic says that the most likely result of the RAF losing the battle would
>> be a cessation of hostilities. The Germans could not have invaded, they
>> would never have got past the Navy.
>
> If the Germans defeat the RAF, the Royal Navy doesn’t stand a chance
> against German airpower if they steam into the narrow confines of the
> English Channel to try and prevent an invasion of the UK.
>
Didn't the Royal Navy face a similar situation with Crete? Something
about "a fleet in being is only useful if it is used"?

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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From: rrost...@comcast.net (Rich Rostrom)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
Britain lost BOB?
Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2021 12:40:40 -0500
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Sun, 17 Oct 2021 17:40 UTC

On 10/14/21 3:49 PM, edstas...@gmail.com wrote:
> If the Germans defeat the RAF, the Royal Navy doesn’t stand a chance
> against German airpower if they steam into the narrow confines of the
> English Channel to try and prevent an invasion of the UK.

The best result the Luftwaffe could get in the BoB would have been
withdrawal of Fighter Command from south of London. This would give
the Germans air superiority over the Channel. But it would not
prevent the RAF from "surging" the battle zone with its remaining
fighters and the largely untouched strength of Bomber Command when
the invasion fleet set out.

That fleet, consisting largely of slow-moving, barely seaworthy
barges under tow, would take substantial losses from British air
attacks by day.

By night, the invasion fleet would be exposed to attack by
Royal Navy torpedo boats, deetroyers, and cruisers, with the
Luftwaffe= largely powerless to intervene. The Kriegsmarine
had been gutted in the Norway campaign, and could not protect
the invasion fleet.

Even by day, the RN could throw a lot of ships into action,
and at that time the Luftwaffe did not have much anti-ship
ability. Eight months later, they were much better at it
(_vide_ actions around Crete), but not in fall 1940. The RN
woudl lose many ships, but others would get in among the
barges and shoot them up at close range.

In short, SEELÖWE was a "himmelsfahrkommando", even if the
Luftwaffe won the BoB.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?
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 by: The Horny Goat - Mon, 18 Oct 2021 05:06 UTC

On Sun, 17 Oct 2021 12:40:40 -0500, Rich Rostrom
<rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

>On 10/14/21 3:49 PM, edstas...@gmail.com wrote:
>> If the Germans defeat the RAF, the Royal Navy doesn’t stand a chance
>> against German airpower if they steam into the narrow confines of the
>> English Channel to try and prevent an invasion of the UK.
>
>The best result the Luftwaffe could get in the BoB would have been
>withdrawal of Fighter Command from south of London. This would give
>the Germans air superiority over the Channel. But it would not
>prevent the RAF from "surging" the battle zone with its remaining
>fighters and the largely untouched strength of Bomber Command when
>the invasion fleet set out.

Not to mention that even without air superiority if there was an
actual invasion every destroyer that could get into the Channel would
get there as quickly as possible. And once there were German troops on
British soil the defender's job would get easier as it would then be
obvious where the Royal Navy had to interdict to prevent resupply.

On top of everything else, Churchill wrote in his history that once it
became clear that the Germans had a bridgehead, he would not hesitate
to use poison gas on British soil to defeat it.

I have no doubt German troops could have landed in the UK - what is
highly questionable is how far their logistics would take them. It is
clear that there was no chance of reaching London.

>That fleet, consisting largely of slow-moving, barely seaworthy
>barges under tow, would take substantial losses from British air
>attacks by day.

As I said above not just the RAF - pretty much any destroyer that
could get to the Channel would head there air cover or no air cover.

What percentage of German resupply efforts would be required to
frustrate the invasion? I'd guess at most 1/3 and that in my opinion
is completely achievable. It's not as if the 1940 Luftwaffe had
ME-262's with anti-ship missiles after all.

>By night, the invasion fleet would be exposed to attack by
>Royal Navy torpedo boats, deetroyers, and cruisers, with the
>Luftwaffe= largely powerless to intervene. The Kriegsmarine
>had been gutted in the Norway campaign, and could not protect
>the invasion fleet.

As Jim Dunnigan demonstrated in his SPI Seelowe war game the German
invasion was by no means a sure thing EVEN IF YOU IGNORED BOTH THE RAF
AND ROYAL NAVY. There is no way the first wave of Sealion could land 5
divisions plus 2 airborne divisions (this was the Allied 6 June 1944
Normandy invasion force) on their D-Day or even a fraction of that.

>Even by day, the RN could throw a lot of ships into action,
>and at that time the Luftwaffe did not have much anti-ship
>ability. Eight months later, they were much better at it
>(_vide_ actions around Crete), but not in fall 1940. The RN
>woudl lose many ships, but others would get in among the
>barges and shoot them up at close range.
>
>In short, SEELÖWE was a "himmelsfahrkommando", even if the
>Luftwaffe won the BoB.

When I first joined AHWI/SHWI back in the early 90s I was a real
believer in Sealion. You and the other regulars at that time quickly
disabused me of the notion.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?
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 by: edstas...@gmail.com - Mon, 18 Oct 2021 21:09 UTC

> Rich Rostrom
> > Ed Stasiak
> >
> > If the Germans defeat the RAF, the Royal Navy doesn’t stand a chance
> > against German airpower if they steam into the narrow confines of the
> > English Channel to try and prevent an invasion of the UK.
>
> The best result the Luftwaffe could get in the BoB would have been
> withdrawal of Fighter Command from south of London. This would
> give the Germans air superiority over the Channel. But it would not
> prevent the RAF from "surging" the battle zone with its remaining
> fighters and the largely untouched strength of Bomber Command
> when the invasion fleet set out.

I'm going by the (admittedly broad) POD in the OP:

"What would have happened to the USA if Britain had been defeated
at the Battle of Britain?"

Defeated, not chased off north of London and that implies the RAF
can't muster enough fighters to stop the Germans from controlling
the skies over southern England (though the Brits still have their
bombers) and that means the Royal Navy will have its ass handed
to them if they steam into the Channel to stop the invasion and
they pretty much have no choice but to try and stop it.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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Subject: Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Tue, 19 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

On 10/18/21 4:09 PM, edstas...@gmail.com wrote:
> Defeated, not chased off north of London and that implies the RAF
> can't muster enough fighters to stop the Germans from controlling
> the skies over southern England...
The RAF planned to withdraw Fighter Command north of London if the BoB
went badly enough. Everyone would consider that a German victory.

The British rationale for this decision was to preserve enough of
Fighter Command for a final disrupting attack during SEELÖWE.
There is nothing the Germans could do to prevent the withdrawal
nor to inflict significant additional losses.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: A "What-if" from Quora - What would have happened to the USA if Britain lost BOB?

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Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2021 16:29:28 -0700
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 by: The Horny Goat - Tue, 19 Oct 2021 23:29 UTC

On Tue, 19 Oct 2021 13:00:01 -0500, Rich Rostrom
<rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

>On 10/18/21 4:09 PM, edstas...@gmail.com wrote:
> > Defeated, not chased off north of London and that implies the RAF
> > can't muster enough fighters to stop the Germans from controlling
> > the skies over southern England...
>The RAF planned to withdraw Fighter Command north of London if the BoB
>went badly enough. Everyone would consider that a German victory.
>
>The British rationale for this decision was to preserve enough of
>Fighter Command for a final disrupting attack during SEELÖWE.
>There is nothing the Germans could do to prevent the withdrawal
>nor to inflict significant additional losses.

In September 1940 the largest fully armed unit in the UK was 1st
Canadian division with lots of regiments and brigades in various state
of equipment scattered around southern England. There was no shortage
of troops - but lots of British units who had been evacuated and left
much of their equipment in France. To defeat that you have to have a
German army with enough equipment and supplies to defeat these units.
Stating the obvious I'm sure.

I still question how even with complete control of the Channel with
the amount of shipping available to the Germans how such an invasion
could have proceeded when defended with poison gas. (Which Churchill
DID say he was prepared to use on British soil to defeat Seelowe -
Churchill said his main target would be port facilities occupied by
the Germans - Churchill had all sorts of fanciful ideas to defeat an
invasion but no question Britain went to war with plenty of poison
gas)

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