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arts / alt.history.what-if / Re: Italy in 1943

SubjectAuthor
* Italy in 1943Trolidan7
`* Re: Italy in 1943Dimensional Traveler
 `* Re: Italy in 1943Louis Epstein
  `* Re: Italy in 1943Dimensional Traveler
   +* Re: Italy in 1943The Horny Goat
   |+- Re: Italy in 1943Dimensional Traveler
   |`* Re: Italy in 1943Trolidan7
   | +* Re: Italy in 1943Dimensional Traveler
   | |+- Re: Italy in 1943pyotr filipivich
   | |`* Re: Italy in 1943Rich Rostrom
   | | `- Re: Italy in 1943The Horny Goat
   | +* Re: Italy in 1943The Horny Goat
   | |+* Re: Italy in 1943Graham Truesdale
   | ||+- Re: Italy in 1943Graham Truesdale
   | ||`- Re: Italy in 1943Dimensional Traveler
   | |`* Re: Italy in 1943Louis Epstein
   | | +* Re: Italy in 1943The Horny Goat
   | | |`* Re: Italy in 1943Rich Rostrom
   | | | `- Re: Italy in 1943The Horny Goat
   | | `* Re: Italy in 1943Trolidan7
   | |  `- Re: Italy in 1943Rich Rostrom
   | +- Re: Italy in 1943Rich Rostrom
   | `* Re: Italy in 1943Rich Rostrom
   |  `* Re: Italy in 1943The Horny Goat
   |   `- Re: Italy in 1943Rich Rostrom
   `- Re: Italy in 1943Louis Epstein

Pages:12
Italy in 1943

<t41d7i$eh$2@dont-email.me>

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From: Trolid...@eternal-september.org (Trolidan7)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Italy in 1943
Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2022 10:32:34 -0700
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 by: Trolidan7 - Sat, 23 Apr 2022 17:32 UTC

Italy in 1943

The what-if is simply this.

In the afternoon of September 8th and the morning
of September 9th of 1943, instead of fleeing south
to allied controlled areas at Brindisi in southern
Italy, King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy makes
speeches on the radio throughout Italy calling on
the Italian armed forces to disarm all German military
forces in Italy, and to use deadly force against the
German army in Italy if it does not comply.

Could this have drastically changed the history of
WWII in Italy over the next few years or would it
only have resulted in him being imprisoned and/or
killed?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Fascist_regime_in_Italy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistice_of_Cassibile

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Mussolini

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Achse

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Sasso_raid

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Social_Republic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Civil_War

Re: Italy in 1943

<t41ofk$qs4$1@dont-email.me>

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From: dtra...@sonic.net (Dimensional Traveler)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2022 13:44:38 -0700
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 by: Dimensional Traveler - Sat, 23 Apr 2022 20:44 UTC

On 4/23/2022 10:32 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
> Italy in 1943
>
> The what-if is simply this.
>
> In the afternoon of September 8th and the morning
> of September 9th of 1943, instead of fleeing south
> to allied controlled areas at Brindisi in southern
> Italy, King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy makes
> speeches on the radio throughout Italy calling on
> the Italian armed forces to disarm all German military
> forces in Italy, and to use deadly force against the
> German army in Italy if it does not comply.
>
> Could this have drastically changed the history of
> WWII in Italy over the next few years or would it
> only have resulted in him being imprisoned and/or
> killed?
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Fascist_regime_in_Italy
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistice_of_Cassibile
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Mussolini
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Achse
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Sasso_raid
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Social_Republic
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Civil_War
>
My immediate thought is that it would have led to the slaughter of any
Italian forces that actually tried to disarm German forces.

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

Re: Italy in 1943

<t454u5$fho$1@reader1.panix.com>

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From: le...@top.put.com (Louis Epstein)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2022 03:35:33 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: PANIX Public Access Internet and UNIX, NYC
Message-ID: <t454u5$fho$1@reader1.panix.com>
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 by: Louis Epstein - Mon, 25 Apr 2022 03:35 UTC

Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
> On 4/23/2022 10:32 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
>> Italy in 1943
>>
>> The what-if is simply this.
>>
>> In the afternoon of September 8th and the morning
>> of September 9th of 1943, instead of fleeing south
>> to allied controlled areas at Brindisi in southern
>> Italy, King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy makes
>> speeches on the radio throughout Italy calling on
>> the Italian armed forces to disarm all German military
>> forces in Italy, and to use deadly force against the
>> German army in Italy if it does not comply.
>>
>> Could this have drastically changed the history of
>> WWII in Italy over the next few years or would it
>> only have resulted in him being imprisoned and/or
>> killed?
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Fascist_regime_in_Italy
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistice_of_Cassibile
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Mussolini
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Achse
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Sasso_raid
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Social_Republic
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Civil_War
>>
> My immediate thought is that it would have led to the slaughter of any
> Italian forces that actually tried to disarm German forces.
>

What if the Skorzeny raid to free Mussolini led to
Mussolini suffering the fate of Ivan VI of Russia
(being killed because there was an attempt to free him)?

-=-=-
The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

Re: Italy in 1943

<t457l9$j6o$1@dont-email.me>

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From: dtra...@sonic.net (Dimensional Traveler)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2022 21:22:04 -0700
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 by: Dimensional Traveler - Mon, 25 Apr 2022 04:22 UTC

On 4/24/2022 8:35 PM, Louis Epstein wrote:
> Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
>> On 4/23/2022 10:32 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
>>> Italy in 1943
>>>
>>> The what-if is simply this.
>>>
>>> In the afternoon of September 8th and the morning
>>> of September 9th of 1943, instead of fleeing south
>>> to allied controlled areas at Brindisi in southern
>>> Italy, King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy makes
>>> speeches on the radio throughout Italy calling on
>>> the Italian armed forces to disarm all German military
>>> forces in Italy, and to use deadly force against the
>>> German army in Italy if it does not comply.
>>>
>>> Could this have drastically changed the history of
>>> WWII in Italy over the next few years or would it
>>> only have resulted in him being imprisoned and/or
>>> killed?
>>>
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Fascist_regime_in_Italy
>>>
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy
>>>
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistice_of_Cassibile
>>>
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Mussolini
>>>
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Achse
>>>
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Sasso_raid
>>>
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Social_Republic
>>>
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Civil_War
>>>
>> My immediate thought is that it would have led to the slaughter of any
>> Italian forces that actually tried to disarm German forces.
>>
>
> What if the Skorzeny raid to free Mussolini led to
> Mussolini suffering the fate of Ivan VI of Russia
> (being killed because there was an attempt to free him)?
>
I don't think Mussolini did anything notable between when Skorzeny freed
him and a mob lynched him (and his mistress).

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

Re: Italy in 1943

<mnid6h5iiudg3lutsfiolm9qps8tk7ifkg@4ax.com>

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From: lcra...@home.ca (The Horny Goat)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Message-ID: <mnid6h5iiudg3lutsfiolm9qps8tk7ifkg@4ax.com>
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 by: The Horny Goat - Mon, 25 Apr 2022 16:24 UTC

On Sun, 24 Apr 2022 21:22:04 -0700, Dimensional Traveler
<dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:

>On 4/24/2022 8:35 PM, Louis Epstein wrote:
>> Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
>>> On 4/23/2022 10:32 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
>>>> Italy in 1943
>>>>
>>>> The what-if is simply this.
>>>>
>>>> In the afternoon of September 8th and the morning
>>>> of September 9th of 1943, instead of fleeing south
>>>> to allied controlled areas at Brindisi in southern
>>>> Italy, King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy makes
>>>> speeches on the radio throughout Italy calling on
>>>> the Italian armed forces to disarm all German military
>>>> forces in Italy, and to use deadly force against the
>>>> German army in Italy if it does not comply.
>>>>
>>>> Could this have drastically changed the history of
>>>> WWII in Italy over the next few years or would it
>>>> only have resulted in him being imprisoned and/or
>>>> killed?
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Fascist_regime_in_Italy
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistice_of_Cassibile
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Mussolini
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Achse
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Sasso_raid
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Social_Republic
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Civil_War
>>>>
>>> My immediate thought is that it would have led to the slaughter of any
>>> Italian forces that actually tried to disarm German forces.
>>>
>>
>> What if the Skorzeny raid to free Mussolini led to
>> Mussolini suffering the fate of Ivan VI of Russia
>> (being killed because there was an attempt to free him)?
>>
>I don't think Mussolini did anything notable between when Skorzeny freed
>him and a mob lynched him (and his mistress).

I agree - my impression however was that the point of the question was
whether Victor Emmanuel would have either (a) gotten himself killed or
(b) permanently secured the survival of the Italian monarchy - or more
likely BOTH

Re: Italy in 1943

<t46vru$a4l$1@dont-email.me>

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From: dtra...@sonic.net (Dimensional Traveler)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2022 13:21:18 -0700
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 by: Dimensional Traveler - Mon, 25 Apr 2022 20:21 UTC

On 4/25/2022 9:24 AM, The Horny Goat wrote:
> On Sun, 24 Apr 2022 21:22:04 -0700, Dimensional Traveler
> <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
>
>> On 4/24/2022 8:35 PM, Louis Epstein wrote:
>>> Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
>>>> On 4/23/2022 10:32 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
>>>>> Italy in 1943
>>>>>
>>>>> The what-if is simply this.
>>>>>
>>>>> In the afternoon of September 8th and the morning
>>>>> of September 9th of 1943, instead of fleeing south
>>>>> to allied controlled areas at Brindisi in southern
>>>>> Italy, King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy makes
>>>>> speeches on the radio throughout Italy calling on
>>>>> the Italian armed forces to disarm all German military
>>>>> forces in Italy, and to use deadly force against the
>>>>> German army in Italy if it does not comply.
>>>>>
>>>>> Could this have drastically changed the history of
>>>>> WWII in Italy over the next few years or would it
>>>>> only have resulted in him being imprisoned and/or
>>>>> killed?
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Fascist_regime_in_Italy
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistice_of_Cassibile
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Mussolini
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Achse
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Sasso_raid
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Social_Republic
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Civil_War
>>>>>
>>>> My immediate thought is that it would have led to the slaughter of any
>>>> Italian forces that actually tried to disarm German forces.
>>>>
>>>
>>> What if the Skorzeny raid to free Mussolini led to
>>> Mussolini suffering the fate of Ivan VI of Russia
>>> (being killed because there was an attempt to free him)?
>>>
>> I don't think Mussolini did anything notable between when Skorzeny freed
>> him and a mob lynched him (and his mistress).
>
> I agree - my impression however was that the point of the question was
> whether Victor Emmanuel would have either (a) gotten himself killed or
> (b) permanently secured the survival of the Italian monarchy - or more
> likely BOTH

That I don't know enough to make a guess. I think a lot would depend on
whether he made this suicidal call for the Italian Army to fight the
Germans before or after he reached Allied control territory.

And now that I say that I suspect it would not have had any noticeable
affect on the course of the rest of WW2. After the war was over...? Dunno.

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

Re: Italy in 1943

<t497cg$5iv$1@dont-email.me>

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From: Trolid...@eternal-september.org (Trolidan7)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2022 09:41:51 -0700
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 by: Trolidan7 - Tue, 26 Apr 2022 16:41 UTC

On 4/25/22 9:24 AM, The Horny Goat wrote:
> On Sun, 24 Apr 2022 21:22:04 -0700, Dimensional Traveler
> <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
>
>> On 4/24/2022 8:35 PM, Louis Epstein wrote:
>>> Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
>>>> On 4/23/2022 10:32 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
>>>>> Italy in 1943
>>>>>
>>>>> The what-if is simply this.
>>>>>
>>>>> In the afternoon of September 8th and the morning
>>>>> of September 9th of 1943, instead of fleeing south
>>>>> to allied controlled areas at Brindisi in southern
>>>>> Italy, King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy makes
>>>>> speeches on the radio throughout Italy calling on
>>>>> the Italian armed forces to disarm all German military
>>>>> forces in Italy, and to use deadly force against the
>>>>> German army in Italy if it does not comply.
>>>>>
>>>>> Could this have drastically changed the history of
>>>>> WWII in Italy over the next few years or would it
>>>>> only have resulted in him being imprisoned and/or
>>>>> killed?
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Fascist_regime_in_Italy
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistice_of_Cassibile
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Mussolini
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Achse
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Sasso_raid
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Social_Republic
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Civil_War
>>>>>
>>>> My immediate thought is that it would have led to the slaughter of any
>>>> Italian forces that actually tried to disarm German forces.
>>>>
>>>
>>> What if the Skorzeny raid to free Mussolini led to
>>> Mussolini suffering the fate of Ivan VI of Russia
>>> (being killed because there was an attempt to free him)?
>>>
>> I don't think Mussolini did anything notable between when Skorzeny freed
>> him and a mob lynched him (and his mistress).
>
> I agree - my impression however was that the point of the question was
> whether Victor Emmanuel would have either (a) gotten himself killed or
> (b) permanently secured the survival of the Italian monarchy - or more
> likely BOTH

It is not obvious whether that was a separate question concerning the
long term nature of the monarchy in Italy.

The nature of the question seems to me as to whether you could have
had all of Italy be able to enter something like neutrality like
Spain.

Mussolini was no longer the Prime Minister.

The king accepts his resignation and Italy is close to being no
longer at war with the Allies but is neutral like Spain.

Since the military of Italy is no longer at war against the
Allies, they can shift the war to southern France.

In our time line there was a slow war up the Italian peninsula
in 1944.

I get the idea from the Wikipedia articles on the subject that
during this time the Italian army received no orders. In a few
places the Italian army did fight against the German army and
were severely defeated or killed.

Now Germany had been fighting a war with Italy on the same side
only a short while earlier in North Africa and so if there were many
German forces in Italy as their guests it seems unlikely that
the king could abruptly command the Italian forces to immediately
attack, but disarm? It is not obvious exactly what commands had
been given to all of the different parts of the German forces either.
Then this might be happening throughout all of Italy and not just
isolate pockets.

But Victor Immanuel III did flee south in our time line, along with
some of his family and so he was at least partially aware somewhat
of what was going on, Speeches on the radio however might possibly
coordinate actions by the Italian army in many different places at once.

To me, at least on paper or reading Wikipedia on the subject many
years afterward, it tends to give me the impression is that you
strangely have something like the Netherlands in reverse.

Rather than the Queen of the Netherlands fleeing, and having
Hitler puzzled and confused because the former German Kaiser
is still sitting there in the Netherlands likely dying of natural
causes about a year or so later, and the U.K. and other countries
like the U.S. still recognizing different governments for both
the Netherlands and France you potentially also have two viewpoints
now for Italy:

1. The king has accepted the prime minister's resignation or
dismissal. There is now a new prime minister and Italy is now
at peace or close to peace and armistice with the Allies.

or

2. The king has been deposed with the help of Germany.

In our time line there was also a slow war northward throughout
the Italian peninsula all throughout 1944 and even a little
into 1945.

In the alternate time line you could have possibly had all
of Italy dropping out of the war and becoming like Spain,
with the U.S. and U.K. being able to concentrate on southern
France potentially a year earlier in 1943 rather than 1944?

I am not sure if the long term nature of the Italian monarchy
could be a separate issue or not. In our time line Victor
Emmanuel III abdicated in favor of his son, and then there was
an election in 1946. It looks like the monarchy generally
got a greater percentage of votes in the south of Italy in
comparison with the north.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Italian_institutional_referendum

Overall, reading about it some length in time from the events,
it seems to appear at least to me that either.

1. It was a missed opportunity.

or

2. He just barely got out with his life and it is
unlikely that much could really have been that different
from our time line.

Re: Italy in 1943

<t49ji1$ejq$1@dont-email.me>

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From: dtra...@sonic.net (Dimensional Traveler)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2022 13:09:37 -0700
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 by: Dimensional Traveler - Tue, 26 Apr 2022 20:09 UTC

On 4/26/2022 9:41 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
> On 4/25/22 9:24 AM, The Horny Goat wrote:
> > On Sun, 24 Apr 2022 21:22:04 -0700, Dimensional Traveler
> > <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
> >
> >> On 4/24/2022 8:35 PM, Louis Epstein wrote:
> >>> Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
> >>>> On 4/23/2022 10:32 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
> >>>>> Italy in 1943
> >>>>>
> >>>>> The what-if is simply this.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> In the afternoon of September 8th and the morning
> >>>>> of September 9th of 1943, instead of fleeing south
> >>>>> to allied controlled areas at Brindisi in southern
> >>>>> Italy, King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy makes
> >>>>> speeches on the radio throughout Italy calling on
> >>>>> the Italian armed forces to disarm all German military
> >>>>> forces in Italy, and to use deadly force against the
> >>>>> German army in Italy if it does not comply.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Could this have drastically changed the history of
> >>>>> WWII in Italy over the next few years or would it
> >>>>> only have resulted in him being imprisoned and/or
> >>>>> killed?
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Fascist_regime_in_Italy
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistice_of_Cassibile
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Mussolini
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Achse
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Sasso_raid
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Social_Republic
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Civil_War
> >>>>>
> >>>> My immediate thought is that it would have led to the slaughter of
> any
> >>>> Italian forces that actually tried to disarm German forces.
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>> What if the Skorzeny raid to free Mussolini led to
> >>> Mussolini suffering the fate of Ivan VI of Russia
> >>> (being killed because there was an attempt to free him)?
> >>>
> >> I don't think Mussolini did anything notable between when Skorzeny
> freed
> >> him and a mob lynched him (and his mistress).
> >
> > I agree - my impression however was that the point of the question was
> > whether Victor Emmanuel would have either (a) gotten himself killed or
> > (b) permanently secured the survival of the Italian monarchy - or more
> > likely BOTH
>
> It is not obvious whether that was a separate question concerning the
> long term nature of the monarchy in Italy.
>
> The nature of the question seems to me as to whether you could have
> had all of Italy be able to enter something like neutrality like
> Spain.
>
No, Italy could not have suddenly "gone neutral". They were at war and
had to surrender. The "long slow war" up the Italian peninsula was
against German forces, not Italian forces. By the time the Allies had
landed at the toe of the boot the Germans had already determined that
Italy could not be trusted and had effectively occupied the country.
Italy had no say in the matter. Italy in real life switched sides
officially, "joining" the Allies (for some definitions of "join"). It
made no difference on the battlefield.

> Mussolini was no longer the Prime Minister.
>
> The king accepts his resignation and Italy is close to being no
> longer at war with the Allies but is neutral like Spain.
>
> Since the military of Italy is no longer at war against the
> Allies, they can shift the war to southern France.
>
> In our time line there was a slow war up the Italian peninsula
> in 1944.
>
> I get the idea from the Wikipedia articles on the subject that
> during this time the Italian army received no orders.  In a few
> places the Italian army did fight against the German army and
> were severely defeated or killed.
>
> Now Germany had been fighting a war with Italy on the same side
> only a short while earlier in North Africa and so if there were many
> German forces in Italy as their guests it seems unlikely that
> the king could abruptly command the Italian forces to immediately
> attack, but disarm?  It is not obvious exactly what commands had
> been given to all of the different parts of the German forces either.
> Then this might be happening throughout all of Italy and not just
> isolate pockets.
>
> But Victor Immanuel III did flee south in our time line, along with
> some of his family and so he was at least partially aware somewhat
> of what was going on,  Speeches on the radio however might possibly
> coordinate actions by the Italian army in many different places at once.
>
> To me, at least on paper or reading Wikipedia on the subject many
> years afterward, it tends to give me the impression is that you
> strangely have something like the Netherlands in reverse.
>
> Rather than the Queen of the Netherlands fleeing, and having
> Hitler puzzled and confused because the former German Kaiser
> is still sitting there in the Netherlands likely dying of natural
> causes about a year or so later, and the U.K. and other countries
> like the U.S. still recognizing different governments for both
> the Netherlands and France you potentially also have two viewpoints
> now for Italy:
>
> 1. The king has accepted the prime minister's resignation or
> dismissal.  There is now a new prime minister and Italy is now
> at peace or close to peace and armistice with the Allies.
>
> or
>
> 2. The king has been deposed with the help of Germany.
>
> In our time line there was also a slow war northward throughout
> the Italian peninsula all throughout 1944 and even a little
> into 1945.
>
> In the alternate time line you could have possibly had all
> of Italy dropping out of the war and becoming like Spain,
> with the U.S. and U.K. being able to concentrate on southern
> France potentially a year earlier in 1943 rather than 1944?
>
> I am not sure if the long term nature of the Italian monarchy
> could be a separate issue or not.  In our time line Victor
> Emmanuel III abdicated in favor of his son, and then there was
> an election in 1946.  It looks like the monarchy generally
> got a greater percentage of votes in the south of Italy in
> comparison with the north.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Italian_institutional_referendum
>
> Overall, reading about it some length in time from the events,
> it seems to appear at least to me that either.
>
> 1. It was a missed opportunity.
>
> or
>
> 2. He just barely got out with his life and it is
> unlikely that much could really have been that different
> from our time line.
>
>

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

Re: Italy in 1943

<rcug6h9ar8l7uc83gevu8aveclreprh95b@4ax.com>

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From: lcra...@home.ca (The Horny Goat)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
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 by: The Horny Goat - Tue, 26 Apr 2022 23:12 UTC

On Tue, 26 Apr 2022 09:41:51 -0700, Trolidan7
<Trolidan7@eternal-september.org> wrote:

>In the alternate time line you could have possibly had all
>of Italy dropping out of the war and becoming like Spain,
>with the U.S. and U.K. being able to concentrate on southern
>France potentially a year earlier in 1943 rather than 1944?
>
>I am not sure if the long term nature of the Italian monarchy
>could be a separate issue or not. In our time line Victor
>Emmanuel III abdicated in favor of his son, and then there was
>an election in 1946. It looks like the monarchy generally
>got a greater percentage of votes in the south of Italy in
>comparison with the north.
>
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Italian_institutional_referendum
>
>Overall, reading about it some length in time from the events,
>it seems to appear at least to me that either.
>
>1. It was a missed opportunity.
>
>or
>
>2. He just barely got out with his life and it is
>unlikely that much could really have been that different
>from our time line.

While it's possible an initial Allied landing further north than
Naples could have had the effect you describe a landing at somewhere
around Anzio / Rome would have been outside effective air cover after
the Sicilian campaign which as I understand it the main mainland
landing was at Naples with the results we know. Certainly there was no
hellbent for leather attempt to move north after the downfall of
Mussolini.

As for the Italian monarchy there was a referendum in 1946 where
Italians opted for a republic by a 54% vote. Had Victor Emmanuel
attempted something heroic whether he succeeded or not those numbers
might well have changed just enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy#1946_referendum

While most NATO countries are republics, the UK and Norway are
monarchies so I don't think that would have been an issue. On the
other hand most of the political wrangling of the Italian postwar
governments was about keeping the Communist party out of any postwar
coalation. France had the same issues but then France didn't have a
postwar boundary with any communist state and up to 1948-49 Tito was
very much in Stalin's good graces.

The immediate postwar world was a very different place in 1945-6 to
1948-9 - things were in disarray, Nuremberg and other trials had not
yet taken place, there was no widespread understanding that an Iron
Curtain had in fact descended on Europe and of course economic
devastation was the name of the day. By 1948-9 NATO had formed,
Marshall plan aid was starting to have an effect and reconstruction
was well under way. So notwithstanding one million Italian Communist
party members I do think the monarchy could have continued past 1946
had it survived the initial postwar period.

Re: Italy in 1943

<d510a24d-2ca0-4c35-8b48-367f0827a5d9n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
From: graham.t...@gmail.com (Graham Truesdale)
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 by: Graham Truesdale - Wed, 27 Apr 2022 17:21 UTC

On Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 12:12:16 AM UTC+1, The Horny Goat wrote:
> On Tue, 26 Apr 2022 09:41:51 -0700, Trolidan7
> <Trol...@eternal-september.org> wrote:
>
> >In the alternate time line you could have possibly had all
> >of Italy dropping out of the war and becoming like Spain,
> >with the U.S. and U.K. being able to concentrate on southern
> >France potentially a year earlier in 1943 rather than 1944?
> >
> >I am not sure if the long term nature of the Italian monarchy
> >could be a separate issue or not. In our time line Victor
> >Emmanuel III abdicated in favor of his son, and then there was
> >an election in 1946. It looks like the monarchy generally
> >got a greater percentage of votes in the south of Italy in
> >comparison with the north.
> >
> >https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Italian_institutional_referendum
> >
> >Overall, reading about it some length in time from the events,
> >it seems to appear at least to me that either.
> >
> >1. It was a missed opportunity.
> >
> >or
> >
> >2. He just barely got out with his life and it is
> >unlikely that much could really have been that different
> >from our time line.
> While it's possible an initial Allied landing further north than
> Naples could have had the effect you describe a landing at somewhere
> around Anzio / Rome would have been outside effective air cover after
> the Sicilian campaign which as I understand it the main mainland
> landing was at Naples with the results we know. Certainly there was no
> hellbent for leather attempt to move north after the downfall of
> Mussolini.
>
> As for the Italian monarchy there was a referendum in 1946 where
> Italians opted for a republic by a 54% vote. Had Victor Emmanuel
> attempted something heroic whether he succeeded or not those numbers
> might well have changed just enough.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy#1946_referendum
>
> While most NATO countries are republics, the UK and Norway are
> monarchies so I don't think that would have been an issue.
>
And so are the three Benelux countries, Denmark and Spain. And https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-business-lloyd-austin-2a7cd301a33083e46490fe954039b550 says that Sweden may apply for NATO membership by the end of next month.

Re: Italy in 1943

<800a972c-4b36-45e5-928f-cd791d985da4n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
From: graham.t...@gmail.com (Graham Truesdale)
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 by: Graham Truesdale - Wed, 27 Apr 2022 18:20 UTC

On Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 6:21:57 PM UTC+1, Graham Truesdale wrote:
> On Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 12:12:16 AM UTC+1, The Horny Goat wrote:
> > On Tue, 26 Apr 2022 09:41:51 -0700, Trolidan7
> > <Trol...@eternal-september.org> wrote:
> >
> > >In the alternate time line you could have possibly had all
> > >of Italy dropping out of the war and becoming like Spain,
> > >with the U.S. and U.K. being able to concentrate on southern
> > >France potentially a year earlier in 1943 rather than 1944?
> > >
> > >I am not sure if the long term nature of the Italian monarchy
> > >could be a separate issue or not. In our time line Victor
> > >Emmanuel III abdicated in favor of his son, and then there was
> > >an election in 1946. It looks like the monarchy generally
> > >got a greater percentage of votes in the south of Italy in
> > >comparison with the north.
> > >
> > >https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Italian_institutional_referendum
> > >
> > >Overall, reading about it some length in time from the events,
> > >it seems to appear at least to me that either.
> > >
> > >1. It was a missed opportunity.
> > >
> > >or
> > >
> > >2. He just barely got out with his life and it is
> > >unlikely that much could really have been that different
> > >from our time line.
> > While it's possible an initial Allied landing further north than
> > Naples could have had the effect you describe a landing at somewhere
> > around Anzio / Rome would have been outside effective air cover after
> > the Sicilian campaign which as I understand it the main mainland
> > landing was at Naples with the results we know. Certainly there was no
> > hellbent for leather attempt to move north after the downfall of
> > Mussolini.
> >
> > As for the Italian monarchy there was a referendum in 1946 where
> > Italians opted for a republic by a 54% vote. Had Victor Emmanuel
> > attempted something heroic whether he succeeded or not those numbers
> > might well have changed just enough.
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy#1946_referendum
> >
> > While most NATO countries are republics, the UK and Norway are
> > monarchies so I don't think that would have been an issue.
> >
> And so are the three Benelux countries, Denmark and Spain. And https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-business-lloyd-austin-2a7cd301a33083e46490fe954039b550 says that Sweden may apply for NATO membership by the end of next month.
>
Looking at NATO's historic composition, it was founded with 12 members of which 7 (UK, Canada, Norway, Denmark and the three Benelux) were monarchies and 5 (USA, France, Portugal, Italy and Iceland) were republics. When the Kingdom of Greece and the Republic of Turkey joined in 1952, that left 8 monarchies and 6 republics. When West Germany joined in 1955, that left 8 monarchies and 7 republics. When Greece became a republic in 1973, that left 8 republics and 7 monarchies. When the Kingdom of Spain joined in 1982, that left 8 monarchies and 8 republics. So apart from the period 1973-82, it was not until 1999 that a majority of NATO members were republics.

Re: Italy in 1943

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Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
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 by: pyotr filipivich - Wed, 27 Apr 2022 19:10 UTC

Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> on Tue, 26 Apr 2022 13:09:37
-0700 typed in alt.history.what-if the following:
>
>> The nature of the question seems to me as to whether you could have
>> had all of Italy be able to enter something like neutrality like
>> Spain.
>>
>No, Italy could not have suddenly "gone neutral". They were at war and
>had to surrender. The "long slow war" up the Italian peninsula was
>against German forces, not Italian forces. By the time the Allies had
>landed at the toe of the boot the Germans had already determined that
>Italy could not be trusted

The joke was that prior to the war the German High command was
asked "What happens if Italy come into the war?" The Answer was "If
they come against us, it will take 2 divisions, 3 tops, to hold the
passes. If they come in on our side, it will take 25 divisions to
'strengthen them'."

> and had effectively occupied the country.
>Italy had no say in the matter. Italy in real life switched sides
>officially, "joining" the Allies (for some definitions of "join"). It
>made no difference on the battlefield.
--
pyotr filipivich
"History rarely repeats herself" is the cliche. In reality she just
lets fly with a frying pan yelling "Why weren't you listening the first time!?"

Re: Italy in 1943

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From: dtra...@sonic.net (Dimensional Traveler)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Date: Wed, 27 Apr 2022 12:57:51 -0700
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 by: Dimensional Traveler - Wed, 27 Apr 2022 19:57 UTC

On 4/27/2022 10:21 AM, Graham Truesdale wrote:
> On Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 12:12:16 AM UTC+1, The Horny Goat wrote:
>> On Tue, 26 Apr 2022 09:41:51 -0700, Trolidan7
>> <Trol...@eternal-september.org> wrote:
>>
>>> In the alternate time line you could have possibly had all
>>> of Italy dropping out of the war and becoming like Spain,
>>> with the U.S. and U.K. being able to concentrate on southern
>>> France potentially a year earlier in 1943 rather than 1944?
>>>
>>> I am not sure if the long term nature of the Italian monarchy
>>> could be a separate issue or not. In our time line Victor
>>> Emmanuel III abdicated in favor of his son, and then there was
>>> an election in 1946. It looks like the monarchy generally
>>> got a greater percentage of votes in the south of Italy in
>>> comparison with the north.
>>>
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Italian_institutional_referendum
>>>
>>> Overall, reading about it some length in time from the events,
>>> it seems to appear at least to me that either.
>>>
>>> 1. It was a missed opportunity.
>>>
>>> or
>>>
>>> 2. He just barely got out with his life and it is
>>> unlikely that much could really have been that different
>> >from our time line.
>> While it's possible an initial Allied landing further north than
>> Naples could have had the effect you describe a landing at somewhere
>> around Anzio / Rome would have been outside effective air cover after
>> the Sicilian campaign which as I understand it the main mainland
>> landing was at Naples with the results we know. Certainly there was no
>> hellbent for leather attempt to move north after the downfall of
>> Mussolini.
>>
>> As for the Italian monarchy there was a referendum in 1946 where
>> Italians opted for a republic by a 54% vote. Had Victor Emmanuel
>> attempted something heroic whether he succeeded or not those numbers
>> might well have changed just enough.
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy#1946_referendum
>>
>> While most NATO countries are republics, the UK and Norway are
>> monarchies so I don't think that would have been an issue.
>>
> And so are the three Benelux countries, Denmark and Spain. And https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-business-lloyd-austin-2a7cd301a33083e46490fe954039b550 says that Sweden may apply for NATO membership by the end of next month.

And Finland. Sweden and Finland are apparently working together to
submit simultaneous applications to join NATO by the middle of May now.

Putin is not happy and doesn't understand why "Don't ally with anyone or
I'll invade you!" isn't a persuasive argument.

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

Re: Italy in 1943

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Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Sat, 30 Apr 2022 18:57 UTC

On 4/26/22 11:41 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
> In a few places the Italian army did fight
> against the German army and
> were severely defeated or killed.

Italian forces in Sardinia and Corsica fought against
the Germans there (which they outnumbered). In both
cases, the Germans succeeded in evacuating their
forces as planned, but took some casualties, and the
Italian forces were not defeated.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: Italy in 1943

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 by: Rich Rostrom - Sat, 30 Apr 2022 19:04 UTC

On 4/26/22 11:41 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
> The king accepts his resignation and Italy is close to being no
> longer at war with the Allies but is neutral like Spain.
>
> Since the military of Italy is no longer at war against the
> Allies, they can shift the war to southern France.

Umm, this is silly.

The Allies are already fighting in Italy against the Germans
In Calabria, and have occupied a lot of Italian territory
(e.g. Sicily).

Italian troops are fighting on the Eastern Front, and are
occupying large areas in France, Yugoslavia, and Greece.

The terms of the 1943 armistice included Italy's surrender to
the Allies.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: Italy in 1943

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 by: Rich Rostrom - Sat, 30 Apr 2022 19:14 UTC

On 4/26/22 3:09 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
> he "long slow war" up the Italian peninsula was against German forces,
> not Italian forces.

Troops of the RSI did fight agaisnt the Allies.

> By the time the Allies had landed at the toe of the
> boot the Germans had already determined that Italy could not be trusted
> and had effectively occupied the country.

No; while the Germans suspected Italy was going
to defect, and had planned for it, the actual
occupation (Operation AXIS) took place after
8 September.

> Italy in real life switched sides officially, "joining" the
> Allies (for some definitions of "join").  It made no difference on the
> battlefield.

Actually, it made a fair amount of difference. Italian
cooperation enabled the Allies to seize a large part
of SE Italy without significant resistance. This included
the major port of Taranto. At another important port, Bari,
the Italians prevented the Germans from carrying out any
demolitions before the Allies could get there.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: Italy in 1943

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From: lcra...@home.ca (The Horny Goat)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
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 by: The Horny Goat - Sat, 30 Apr 2022 21:03 UTC

On Sat, 30 Apr 2022 14:04:35 -0500, Rich Rostrom
<rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

>On 4/26/22 11:41 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
>> The king accepts his resignation and Italy is close to being no
>> longer at war with the Allies but is neutral like Spain.
>>
>> Since the military of Italy is no longer at war against the
>> Allies, they can shift the war to southern France.
>
>Umm, this is silly.
>
>The Allies are already fighting in Italy against the Germans
>In Calabria, and have occupied a lot of Italian territory
>(e.g. Sicily).
>
>Italian troops are fighting on the Eastern Front, and are
>occupying large areas in France, Yugoslavia, and Greece.
>
>The terms of the 1943 armistice included Italy's surrender to
>the Allies.

Roughly how many Italians were still serving in Russia in 1943? My
understanding that the main Italian formations were north of
Stalingrad directly in the path of the main northern Soviet pincer
that met their southern counterpart at Kalach thus encircling
Stalingrad.

What I've read suggests the Italians had an enormous problem with
Soviet armor since their anti-tank weapons were not to the standard of
German anti-tank equipment.

At the start of the 1942 campaign there were something like 100k
Italians in Russia - my questions are (1) how many of those survived
the Stalingrad campaign and (2) of those captured did they have the
same death rate as German forces captured in that campaign? (Something
like 5% of German POWs captured in the Stalingrad campaign ever
returned to Germany post-war)

Re: Italy in 1943

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From: lcra...@home.ca (The Horny Goat)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
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 by: The Horny Goat - Sat, 30 Apr 2022 21:05 UTC

On Sat, 30 Apr 2022 14:14:07 -0500, Rich Rostrom
<rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

>Actually, it made a fair amount of difference. Italian
>cooperation enabled the Allies to seize a large part
>of SE Italy without significant resistance. This included
>the major port of Taranto. At another important port, Bari,
>the Italians prevented the Germans from carrying out any
>demolitions before the Allies could get there.

For sure - and in an amphibious campaign early capture of ports is
essential and the two biggest ports in southern Italy were / are
Taranto and Naples. Bari was important but not as important as the
other two.

Re: Italy in 1943

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 by: Rich Rostrom - Sun, 1 May 2022 21:56 UTC

On 4/30/22 4:03 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
> Roughly how many Italians were still serving in Russia in 1943? My
> understanding that the main Italian formations were north of
> Stalingrad directly in the path of the main northern Soviet pincer
> that met their southern counterpart at Kalach thus encircling
> Stalingrad.

That was III Rumanian Army. Italian VIII Army was further west.
The Soviets attacked straight west against VIII Army in January
1943.

By September 1943 the remnants of VIII Army had been withdrawn.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: Italy in 1943

<t5s8q2$cgp$1@reader1.panix.com>

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From: le...@top.put.com (Louis Epstein)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Date: Mon, 16 May 2022 01:18:58 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: PANIX Public Access Internet and UNIX, NYC
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 by: Louis Epstein - Mon, 16 May 2022 01:18 UTC

The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:
> On Tue, 26 Apr 2022 09:41:51 -0700, Trolidan7
> <Trolidan7@eternal-september.org> wrote:
>
>>In the alternate time line you could have possibly had all
>>of Italy dropping out of the war and becoming like Spain,
>>with the U.S. and U.K. being able to concentrate on southern
>>France potentially a year earlier in 1943 rather than 1944?
>>
>>I am not sure if the long term nature of the Italian monarchy
>>could be a separate issue or not. In our time line Victor
>>Emmanuel III abdicated in favor of his son, and then there was
>>an election in 1946. It looks like the monarchy generally
>>got a greater percentage of votes in the south of Italy in
>>comparison with the north.
>>
>>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Italian_institutional_referendum
>>
>>Overall, reading about it some length in time from the events,
>>it seems to appear at least to me that either.
>>
>>1. It was a missed opportunity.
>>
>>or
>>
>>2. He just barely got out with his life and it is
>>unlikely that much could really have been that different
>>from our time line.
>
> While it's possible an initial Allied landing further north than
> Naples could have had the effect you describe a landing at somewhere
> around Anzio / Rome would have been outside effective air cover after
> the Sicilian campaign which as I understand it the main mainland
> landing was at Naples with the results we know. Certainly there was no
> hellbent for leather attempt to move north after the downfall of
> Mussolini.
>
> As for the Italian monarchy there was a referendum in 1946 where
> Italians opted for a republic by a 54% vote. Had Victor Emmanuel
> attempted something heroic whether he succeeded or not those numbers
> might well have changed just enough.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy#1946_referendum

It's been said that pro-republic forces rigged the results.
Different events could have reduced the chance of this.
> While most NATO countries are republics, the UK and Norway are
> monarchies so I don't think that would have been an issue. On the
> other hand most of the political wrangling of the Italian postwar
> governments was about keeping the Communist party out of any postwar
> coalation. France had the same issues but then France didn't have a
> postwar boundary with any communist state and up to 1948-49 Tito was
> very much in Stalin's good graces.

The Allies didn't have much issue with betraying the Yugoslav
monarchists in favor of Tito.
> The immediate postwar world was a very different place in 1945-6 to
> 1948-9 - things were in disarray, Nuremberg and other trials had not
> yet taken place, there was no widespread understanding that an Iron
> Curtain had in fact descended on Europe and of course economic
> devastation was the name of the day. By 1948-9 NATO had formed,
> Marshall plan aid was starting to have an effect and reconstruction
> was well under way. So notwithstanding one million Italian Communist
> party members I do think the monarchy could have continued past 1946
> had it survived the initial postwar period.

-=-=-
The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

Re: Italy in 1943

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From: le...@top.put.com (Louis Epstein)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Date: Mon, 16 May 2022 01:19:47 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: PANIX Public Access Internet and UNIX, NYC
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 by: Louis Epstein - Mon, 16 May 2022 01:19 UTC

Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
> On 4/24/2022 8:35 PM, Louis Epstein wrote:
>> Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
>>> On 4/23/2022 10:32 AM, Trolidan7 wrote:
>>>> Italy in 1943
>>>>
>>>> The what-if is simply this.
>>>>
>>>> In the afternoon of September 8th and the morning
>>>> of September 9th of 1943, instead of fleeing south
>>>> to allied controlled areas at Brindisi in southern
>>>> Italy, King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy makes
>>>> speeches on the radio throughout Italy calling on
>>>> the Italian armed forces to disarm all German military
>>>> forces in Italy, and to use deadly force against the
>>>> German army in Italy if it does not comply.
>>>>
>>>> Could this have drastically changed the history of
>>>> WWII in Italy over the next few years or would it
>>>> only have resulted in him being imprisoned and/or
>>>> killed?
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Fascist_regime_in_Italy
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistice_of_Cassibile
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Mussolini
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Achse
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Sasso_raid
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Social_Republic
>>>>
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Civil_War
>>>>
>>> My immediate thought is that it would have led to the slaughter of any
>>> Italian forces that actually tried to disarm German forces.
>>>
>>
>> What if the Skorzeny raid to free Mussolini led to
>> Mussolini suffering the fate of Ivan VI of Russia
>> (being killed because there was an attempt to free him)?
>>
> I don't think Mussolini did anything notable between when Skorzeny freed
> him and a mob lynched him (and his mistress).
>
>

The Germans wanted him for a figleaf,what would they have
done differently if they couldn't have him?...how would
Italians have reacted differently?

-=-=-
The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

Re: Italy in 1943

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From: lcra...@home.ca (The Horny Goat)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Message-ID: <cba58hpnka3j5hnvleqop16l0e0hhsslog@4ax.com>
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 by: The Horny Goat - Mon, 16 May 2022 19:49 UTC

On Mon, 16 May 2022 01:18:58 -0000 (UTC), Louis Epstein
<le@top.put.com> wrote:

>The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:
>> On Tue, 26 Apr 2022 09:41:51 -0700, Trolidan7
>> <Trolidan7@eternal-september.org> wrote:
>>
>> As for the Italian monarchy there was a referendum in 1946 where
>> Italians opted for a republic by a 54% vote. Had Victor Emmanuel
>> attempted something heroic whether he succeeded or not those numbers
>> might well have changed just enough.
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy#1946_referendum
>
>It's been said that pro-republic forces rigged the results.
>Different events could have reduced the chance of this.

First I've heard of this - what specific form did this rigging take?
>> While most NATO countries are republics, the UK and Norway are
>> monarchies so I don't think that would have been an issue. On the
>> other hand most of the political wrangling of the Italian postwar
>> governments was about keeping the Communist party out of any postwar
>> coalation. France had the same issues but then France didn't have a
>> postwar boundary with any communist state and up to 1948-49 Tito was
>> very much in Stalin's good graces.
>
>The Allies didn't have much issue with betraying the Yugoslav
>monarchists in favor of Tito.

I think it was more a question of FDR being madly in love with Stalin
than any other factor. It's only a slight exaggeration to say he liked
Stalin rather more than Wallace did - but Wallace didn't have FDR's
pre-1940 resume so had to go.

In 1944-45 it was 'whatever Stalin wants Stalin gets' no matter how
long term damaging it was to American interests. It's fair to say that
Russia rebuilt post war with the aid of 1944-45 Lend Lease nearly as
much as western European Marshall Plan aid did. In addition to raw
materials Russia got a LOT of factory equipment and US plans (not to
mention what they reverse engineered) under the guise of Lend Lease -
which continued after VE Day.
>> The immediate postwar world was a very different place in 1945-6 to
>> 1948-9 - things were in disarray, Nuremberg and other trials had not
>> yet taken place, there was no widespread understanding that an Iron
>> Curtain had in fact descended on Europe and of course economic
>> devastation was the name of the day. By 1948-9 NATO had formed,
>> Marshall plan aid was starting to have an effect and reconstruction
>> was well under way. So notwithstanding one million Italian Communist
>> party members I do think the monarchy could have continued past 1946
>> had it survived the initial postwar period.

I agree with that assessment.

Re: Italy in 1943

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From: Trolid...@eternal-september.org (Trolidan7)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Date: Tue, 17 May 2022 12:48:04 -0700
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 by: Trolidan7 - Tue, 17 May 2022 19:48 UTC

On 5/15/22 6:18 PM, Louis Epstein wrote:
> The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:
>> On Tue, 26 Apr 2022 09:41:51 -0700, Trolidan7
>> <Trolidan7@eternal-september.org> wrote:
>>
>>> In the alternate time line you could have possibly had all
>>> of Italy dropping out of the war and becoming like Spain,
>>> with the U.S. and U.K. being able to concentrate on southern
>>> France potentially a year earlier in 1943 rather than 1944?
>>>
>>> I am not sure if the long term nature of the Italian monarchy
>>> could be a separate issue or not. In our time line Victor
>>> Emmanuel III abdicated in favor of his son, and then there was
>>> an election in 1946. It looks like the monarchy generally
>>> got a greater percentage of votes in the south of Italy in
>>> comparison with the north.
>>>
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Italian_institutional_referendum
>>>
>>> Overall, reading about it some length in time from the events,
>>> it seems to appear at least to me that either.
>>>
>>> 1. It was a missed opportunity.
>>>
>>> or
>>>
>>> 2. He just barely got out with his life and it is
>>> unlikely that much could really have been that different
>> >from our time line.
>>
>> While it's possible an initial Allied landing further north than
>> Naples could have had the effect you describe a landing at somewhere
>> around Anzio / Rome would have been outside effective air cover after
>> the Sicilian campaign which as I understand it the main mainland
>> landing was at Naples with the results we know. Certainly there was no
>> hellbent for leather attempt to move north after the downfall of
>> Mussolini.
>>
>> As for the Italian monarchy there was a referendum in 1946 where
>> Italians opted for a republic by a 54% vote. Had Victor Emmanuel
>> attempted something heroic whether he succeeded or not those numbers
>> might well have changed just enough.
>>
>>
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Emmanuel_III_of_Italy#1946_referendum
>
> It's been said that pro-republic forces rigged the results.
> Different events could have reduced the chance of this.

I was wondering, exactly what goes into results likely being
considered to be rigged and what ones have less fraud and
are considered to be real?

The most interesting ones I can think of are:

The election in France on the constitution that went from Napoleon
explicitly being named the first of 3 consuls, when the previous
constitution explicitly said that the 5 directors had to have
voted in favor of the execution of Louis XVI. Well, Napoleon
was not able to vote at the time so he was automatically excluded.

Nonetheless the next constitution looked extremely pseudo-royalist
because it not only explicitly named Napoleon as emperor but also
named the line of succession. Was a lot of vote rigging needed
by Lucien Bonaparte to get this constitution to pass? If so how
much?

Did Francisco Madero actually win the Mexican Presidential election of
1910 rather than Porfirio Diaz?

>
>> While most NATO countries are republics, the UK and Norway are
>> monarchies so I don't think that would have been an issue. On the
>> other hand most of the political wrangling of the Italian postwar
>> governments was about keeping the Communist party out of any postwar
>> coalation. France had the same issues but then France didn't have a
>> postwar boundary with any communist state and up to 1948-49 Tito was
>> very much in Stalin's good graces.
>
> The Allies didn't have much issue with betraying the Yugoslav
> monarchists in favor of Tito.
>
>> The immediate postwar world was a very different place in 1945-6 to
>> 1948-9 - things were in disarray, Nuremberg and other trials had not
>> yet taken place, there was no widespread understanding that an Iron
>> Curtain had in fact descended on Europe and of course economic
>> devastation was the name of the day. By 1948-9 NATO had formed,
>> Marshall plan aid was starting to have an effect and reconstruction
>> was well under way. So notwithstanding one million Italian Communist
>> party members I do think the monarchy could have continued past 1946
>> had it survived the initial postwar period.
>
> -=-=-
> The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
> at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.
>

Re: Italy in 1943

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From: rrost...@comcast.net (Rich Rostrom)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
Date: Sun, 22 May 2022 11:33:39 -0500
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Sun, 22 May 2022 16:33 UTC

On 5/16/22 2:49 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
> On Mon, 16 May 2022 01:18:58 -0000 (UTC), Louis Epstein
> <le@top.put.com> wrote:
>
>> The Allies didn't have much issue with betraying the Yugoslav
>> monarchists in favor of Tito.

The decision on the ground was to support the Partisans
instead of the Chetniks. This was made by Churchill on
the basis of reports by British agents in Yugoslavia, and
ULTRA decrypts. These showed that the Partisans were far
more actively attacking the Germans. Meanwhile, the Chetnik
official policy was to minimize confrontation and German
reprisals, while awaiting Allied invasion. Also some Chetniks
collaborated with Axis forces for various reasons. (E.g. the
Chetniks collaborated with Italians to fight the Croatian
Ustashe, who were the enemies of both.)

> I think it was more a question of FDR being madly in love with Stalin
> than any other factor. It's only a slight exaggeration to say he liked
> Stalin rather more than Wallace did - but Wallace didn't have FDR's
> pre-1940 resume so had to go.

It's been noted elsewhere that Wallace's most foolish
pro-Soviet statements came in 1948, when he was being
managed by the Communists running his campaign; he was
more realistic in 1944. He was dropped in 1944 for
multiple reasons, including his vulnerability over the
"Dear Guru" letters.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Re: Italy in 1943

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From: rrost...@comcast.net (Rich Rostrom)
Newsgroups: alt.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Italy in 1943
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 by: Rich Rostrom - Sun, 22 May 2022 23:23 UTC

On 5/17/22 2:48 PM, Trolidan7 wrote:
> I was wondering, exactly what goes into results likely being
> considered to be rigged and what ones have less fraud and
> are considered to be real?

There are multiple levels of election-rigging.

There is intimidation of opposition voters.
- To deter them from voting.
- To make them accept "assistance".
- To suppress any public displays of opposition support.
- To compel public displays of support.

There is intimidation of opposition organizers.

There is use of state resources for the campaign.
- Government employees...
-- given time off for campaign work
-- required to campaign to keep their jobs
-- required to donate to campaign funds

- Government facilities used for campaigning
-- Offices, phones, vehicles

- State-controlled media...
-- Printing/broadcasting partisan propaganda.

- State funds used to provide favors to voters.

- State authority used to pressure businesses to make
- donations and withhold opposition donations, by
- favorable/hostile treatment in
-- contracting
-- taxation
-- regulation
-- inspections

Properly exploited, these methods can effectively
guarantee victory for the incumbent party, without
resorting to...

Outright fraud.
- Fake ballots.
- Altered vote counts.

In his politics book, Robert Heinlein asserted that
outright fraud was a symptom of breakdown in the
organization. Under a well-run Machine

- every precinct has two or three workers who
know every voter and make sure all "their"
voters get to the polls. These workers also
distribute small favors to voters.

- the regime's policies are reasonably satisfying
to most voters.

- businesses donate heavily to the party's campaign
funds and almost never to the opposition.

- the press is muzzled or state-owned.

- if necessary, potential opposition candidates
are bought off (not necessarily with money) or
intimidated.

When corruption is too blatant, when the regime
fails at basic government services, and when its
precinct workers become lazy and arrogant - then
the Machine resorts to fraud.

In Spain, in the period 1875-1920, politics was
dominated by two parties. A change from one to
the other was a "turno pacifico", resulting from
some major failure by the incumbents. The new
power-holders were expected to "make a majority";
that is, to win an election thanks to support from
local "caciques" who controlled voting in small
towns and could be bought with national patronage.

Thus the election was in a sense rigged - but also
reflected the national consensus.

> The most interesting ones I can think of are...

How about the Venezuelan presidential recall in 2004?
Exit polls indicated a solid majority in favor, and
observers noted that the _chavistas_ seemed very worried
and depressed. But the result as announced was a strong
majority against. No one has ever been able to prove
fraud, but the regime very quickly moved to insure that
there could never be more than a token audit, which is
suspicious.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

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