The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson

https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden
--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

James Nicoll wrote:
> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson
>
> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden

Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest cities, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have missed the cut, but by less than a hundred places. At least, here in the future, I'm not sure where we stood in the '70 or '80 census; we had a few rounds of population loss, followed by the city council finding ways to annex nearby townships and villages, followed by a round of people fleeing even further. Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence of pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazine supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probably centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.

--
-Jack

Jack Bohn <jack.bohn64@gmail.com> writes:
>James Nicoll wrote:
>> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson=20
>>=20
>> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden=20
>
>Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest ci=
>ties, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have misse=
>d the cut, but by less than a hundred places. At least, here in the future=
>, I'm not sure where we stood in the '70 or '80 census; we had a few rounds=
> of population loss, followed by the city council finding ways to annex nea=
>rby townships and villages, followed by a round of people fleeing even furt=
>her. Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence o=
>f pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I =
>remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazin=
>e supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probab=
>ly centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction=
> did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.

You shouldn't have felt insulted. Soviet CEP in those days was large enough that
at least one of the warheads aimed at WPAFB would have missed.

From an 1980 RAND analysis, there are several kinds of variability
involved:

RV to RV (height of burst errors, CEP errors)
missile-to-missile (reliability, impact points)
target-to-target (target hardness, altitude misestimation).

RV: Reentry vehicle containing warhead

"It is important to note that the effect of missile-to-missile
random variations ... can be largely offset by cross-targeting.
... Unfortunately, cross-targeting makes timing of warhead impact more
difficult, potentially increasing fratricide."

Scott Lurndal wrote:
> Jack Bohn <jack....@gmail.com> writes:
> >James Nicoll wrote:
> >> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson=20
> >>=20
> >> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden=20
> >
> >Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest ci=
> >ties, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have misse=
> >d the cut, but by less than a hundred places.
....
> >Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence o=
> >f pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I =
> >remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazin=
> >e supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probab=
> >ly centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction=
> > did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.
> You shouldn't have felt insulted. Soviet CEP in those days was large enough that
> at least one of the warheads aimed at WPAFB would have missed.

So, I'm in danger just because I'm standing near someone who is actually worth shooting at?
That's the worst of both words!

--
-Jack

In article <t33q76$eeb$1@reader1.panix.com>,
James Nicoll <jdnicoll@panix.com> wrote:
>The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson
>
>https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden

Augh mornings are not my friend: A post-atomic doom coming of age
story starring a lucky idiot and his less lucky friends.
--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

On 4/12/2022 7:10 AM, James Nicoll wrote:
> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson
>
> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden

Kinda sounds a little like it was inspired by _The Long Tomorrow_ by
Leigh Brackett.

Lynn

On Tue, 12 Apr 2022 11:54:27 -0700 (PDT), Jack Bohn
<jack.bohn64@gmail.com> wrote:

>Scott Lurndal wrote:
>> Jack Bohn <jack....@gmail.com> writes:
>> >James Nicoll wrote:
>> >> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson=20
>> >>=20
>> >> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden=20
>> >
>> >Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest ci=
>> >ties, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have misse=
>> >d the cut, but by less than a hundred places.
>...
>> >Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence o=
>> >f pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I =
>> >remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazin=
>> >e supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probab=
>> >ly centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction=
>> > did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.
>> You shouldn't have felt insulted. Soviet CEP in those days was large enough that
>> at least one of the warheads aimed at WPAFB would have missed.
>
>So, I'm in danger just because I'm standing near someone who is actually worth shooting at?
>That's the worst of both words!

Sadly, that seems to be all-to-common nowadays.
--
"I begin to envy Petronius."
"I have envied him long since."

On Tue, 12 Apr 2022 16:03:52 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)
wrote:

>Jack Bohn <jack.bohn64@gmail.com> writes:
>>James Nicoll wrote:
>>> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson=20
>>>=20
>>> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden=20
>>
>>Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest ci=
>>ties, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have misse=
>>d the cut, but by less than a hundred places. At least, here in the future=
>>, I'm not sure where we stood in the '70 or '80 census; we had a few rounds=
>> of population loss, followed by the city council finding ways to annex nea=
>>rby townships and villages, followed by a round of people fleeing even furt=
>>her. Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence o=
>>f pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I =
>>remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazin=
>>e supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probab=
>>ly centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction=
>> did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.
>
>You shouldn't have felt insulted. Soviet CEP in those days was large enough that
>at least one of the warheads aimed at WPAFB would have missed.
>
>From an 1980 RAND analysis, there are several kinds of variability
>involved:
>
> RV to RV (height of burst errors, CEP errors)
> missile-to-missile (reliability, impact points)
> target-to-target (target hardness, altitude misestimation).
>
>RV: Reentry vehicle containing warhead
>
> "It is important to note that the effect of missile-to-missile
> random variations ... can be largely offset by cross-targeting.
> ... Unfortunately, cross-targeting makes timing of warhead impact more
> difficult, potentially increasing fratricide."

Fratricide doesn't appear to be a problem for Russian leaders, given
their having the troops camp out in Chernobyl's Red Forest.

The Russian /soldiers/ who did the camping, it was a problem for.
They're the ones said to have radiation sickness.
--
"I begin to envy Petronius."
"I have envied him long since."

Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> writes:
>On Tue, 12 Apr 2022 16:03:52 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)
>wrote:
>
>>Jack Bohn <jack.bohn64@gmail.com> writes:
>>>James Nicoll wrote:
>>>> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson=20
>>>>=20
>>>> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden=20
>>>
>>>Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest ci=
>>>ties, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have misse=
>>>d the cut, but by less than a hundred places. At least, here in the future=
>>>, I'm not sure where we stood in the '70 or '80 census; we had a few rounds=
>>> of population loss, followed by the city council finding ways to annex nea=
>>>rby townships and villages, followed by a round of people fleeing even furt=
>>>her. Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence o=
>>>f pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I =
>>>remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazin=
>>>e supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probab=
>>>ly centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction=
>>> did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.
>>
>>You shouldn't have felt insulted. Soviet CEP in those days was large enough that
>>at least one of the warheads aimed at WPAFB would have missed.
>>
>>From an 1980 RAND analysis, there are several kinds of variability
>>involved:
>>
>> RV to RV (height of burst errors, CEP errors)
>> missile-to-missile (reliability, impact points)
>> target-to-target (target hardness, altitude misestimation).
>>
>>RV: Reentry vehicle containing warhead
>>
>> "It is important to note that the effect of missile-to-missile
>> random variations ... can be largely offset by cross-targeting.
>> ... Unfortunately, cross-targeting makes timing of warhead impact more
>> difficult, potentially increasing fratricide."
>
>Fratricide doesn't appear to be a problem for Russian leaders, given
>their having the troops camp out in Chernobyl's Red Forest.

Fratricide in this instance is where one warhead kills other
warheads aimed at the same target area before they go critical (vis-a-vis cross targeting).

On 4/13/2022 9:12 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
> On Tue, 12 Apr 2022 11:54:27 -0700 (PDT), Jack Bohn
> <jack.bohn64@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>> Jack Bohn <jack....@gmail.com> writes:
>>>> James Nicoll wrote:
>>>>> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson=20
>>>>> =20
>>>>> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden=20
>>>>
>>>> Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest ci=
>>>> ties, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have misse=
>>>> d the cut, but by less than a hundred places.
>> ...
>>>> Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence o=
>>>> f pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I =
>>>> remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazin=
>>>> e supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probab=
>>>> ly centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction=
>>>> did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.
>>> You shouldn't have felt insulted. Soviet CEP in those days was large enough that
>>> at least one of the warheads aimed at WPAFB would have missed.
>>
>> So, I'm in danger just because I'm standing near someone who is actually worth shooting at?
>> That's the worst of both words!
>
> Sadly, that seems to be all-to-common nowadays.

Everyone who is somewhere vaguely downrange (something like a 45 degree
arc that may or may not include the intended target) is in danger from
most shooters you hear about in the news.

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

On 4/13/2022 9:15 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
> On Tue, 12 Apr 2022 16:03:52 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)
> wrote:
>
>> Jack Bohn <jack.bohn64@gmail.com> writes:
>>> James Nicoll wrote:
>>>> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson=20
>>>> =20
>>>> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden=20
>>>
>>> Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest ci=
>>> ties, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have misse=
>>> d the cut, but by less than a hundred places. At least, here in the future=
>>> , I'm not sure where we stood in the '70 or '80 census; we had a few rounds=
>>> of population loss, followed by the city council finding ways to annex nea=
>>> rby townships and villages, followed by a round of people fleeing even furt=
>>> her. Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence o=
>>> f pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I =
>>> remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazin=
>>> e supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probab=
>>> ly centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction=
>>> did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.
>>
>> You shouldn't have felt insulted. Soviet CEP in those days was large enough that
>> at least one of the warheads aimed at WPAFB would have missed.
>>
>>From an 1980 RAND analysis, there are several kinds of variability
>> involved:
>>
>> RV to RV (height of burst errors, CEP errors)
>> missile-to-missile (reliability, impact points)
>> target-to-target (target hardness, altitude misestimation).
>>
>> RV: Reentry vehicle containing warhead
>>
>> "It is important to note that the effect of missile-to-missile
>> random variations ... can be largely offset by cross-targeting.
>> ... Unfortunately, cross-targeting makes timing of warhead impact more
>> difficult, potentially increasing fratricide."
>
> Fratricide doesn't appear to be a problem for Russian leaders, given
> their having the troops camp out in Chernobyl's Red Forest.
>
> The Russian /soldiers/ who did the camping, it was a problem for.
> They're the ones said to have radiation sickness.

Apparently in large part because they dug up souvenirs to take home.

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

On Wed, 13 Apr 2022 09:12:07 -0700, Paul S Person
<psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:

>On Tue, 12 Apr 2022 11:54:27 -0700 (PDT), Jack Bohn
><jack.bohn64@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>> Jack Bohn <jack....@gmail.com> writes:
>>> >James Nicoll wrote:
>>> >> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson=20
>>> >>=20
>>> >> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden=20
>>> >
>>> >Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest ci=
>>> >ties, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have misse=
>>> >d the cut, but by less than a hundred places.
>>...
>>> >Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence o=
>>> >f pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I =
>>> >remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazin=
>>> >e supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probab=
>>> >ly centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction=
>>> > did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.
>>> You shouldn't have felt insulted. Soviet CEP in those days was large enough that
>>> at least one of the warheads aimed at WPAFB would have missed.
>>
>>So, I'm in danger just because I'm standing near someone who is actually worth shooting at?
>>That's the worst of both words!
>
>Sadly, that seems to be all-to-common nowadays.

To the north of me are an air force base and Smith & Wesson.

To the west is another air force base and Hamilton Sundstrand.

To the South is Pratt & Whitney and Colt

If the balloon ever goes up I doubt I'll know.

On Wed, 13 Apr 2022 09:15:10 -0700, Paul S Person
<psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:

>On Tue, 12 Apr 2022 16:03:52 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)
>wrote:
>
>>Jack Bohn <jack.bohn64@gmail.com> writes:
>>>James Nicoll wrote:
>>>> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson=20
>>>>=20
>>>> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden=20
>>>
>>>Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest ci=
>>>ties, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have misse=
>>>d the cut, but by less than a hundred places. At least, here in the future=
>>>, I'm not sure where we stood in the '70 or '80 census; we had a few rounds=
>>> of population loss, followed by the city council finding ways to annex nea=
>>>rby townships and villages, followed by a round of people fleeing even furt=
>>>her. Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence o=
>>>f pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I =
>>>remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazin=
>>>e supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probab=
>>>ly centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction=
>>> did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.
>>
>>You shouldn't have felt insulted. Soviet CEP in those days was large enough that
>>at least one of the warheads aimed at WPAFB would have missed.
>>
>>From an 1980 RAND analysis, there are several kinds of variability
>>involved:
>>
>> RV to RV (height of burst errors, CEP errors)
>> missile-to-missile (reliability, impact points)
>> target-to-target (target hardness, altitude misestimation).
>>
>>RV: Reentry vehicle containing warhead
>>
>> "It is important to note that the effect of missile-to-missile
>> random variations ... can be largely offset by cross-targeting.
>> ... Unfortunately, cross-targeting makes timing of warhead impact more
>> difficult, potentially increasing fratricide."
>
>Fratricide doesn't appear to be a problem for Russian leaders, given
>their having the troops camp out in Chernobyl's Red Forest.
>
>The Russian /soldiers/ who did the camping, it was a problem for.
>They're the ones said to have radiation sickness.

I am trying to imagine what goes through a young Russian soldier's
mind, one who grew up playing Stalker (a Ukrainian game, by the way,
buy it on Steam), finding himself actually in the Zone, where there
now lurk worse things that the ones in the game--the lurkers now are
well-armed and thoroughly pissed-off Ukrainians.

J. Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> writes:
>On Wed, 13 Apr 2022 09:12:07 -0700, Paul S Person
><psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>
>>On Tue, 12 Apr 2022 11:54:27 -0700 (PDT), Jack Bohn
>><jack.bohn64@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>Scott Lurndal wrote:
>>>> Jack Bohn <jack....@gmail.com> writes:
>>>> >James Nicoll wrote:
>>>> >> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson=20
>>>> >>=20
>>>> >> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden=20
>>>> >
>>>> >Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest ci=
>>>> >ties, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have misse=
>>>> >d the cut, but by less than a hundred places.
>>>...
>>>> >Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence o=
>>>> >f pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I =
>>>> >remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazin=
>>>> >e supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probab=
>>>> >ly centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction=
>>>> > did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.
>>>> You shouldn't have felt insulted. Soviet CEP in those days was large enough that
>>>> at least one of the warheads aimed at WPAFB would have missed.
>>>
>>>So, I'm in danger just because I'm standing near someone who is actually worth shooting at?
>>>That's the worst of both words!
>>
>>Sadly, that seems to be all-to-common nowadays.
>
>To the north of me are an air force base and Smith & Wesson.

Why would anyone target Westover with a nuke? It's a training
base with an airlift contingent.

>
>To the west is another air force base and Hamilton Sundstrand.

Youngstown? Isn't that a reserve base?

>
>To the South is Pratt & Whitney and Colt
>
>If the balloon ever goes up I doubt I'll know.

I think you're safe.

On Wed, 13 Apr 2022 09:15:10 -0700, Paul S Person
<psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:

>On Tue, 12 Apr 2022 16:03:52 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)
>wrote:
>
>>Jack Bohn <jack.bohn64@gmail.com> writes:
>>>James Nicoll wrote:
>>>> The Wild Shore (California triptych, volume 1) by Kim Stanley Robinson=20
>>>>=20
>>>> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/plant-a-little-garden=20
>>>
>>>Pursuant to the neutron bombing of the US' two to three thousand largest ci=
>>>ties, if they had limited themselves to one thousand, mine would have misse=
>>>d the cut, but by less than a hundred places. At least, here in the future=
>>>, I'm not sure where we stood in the '70 or '80 census; we had a few rounds=
>>> of population loss, followed by the city council finding ways to annex nea=
>>>rby townships and villages, followed by a round of people fleeing even furt=
>>>her. Nevertheless, in the '70s we assured each other that our confluence o=
>>>f pipelines, oil refinery, and army tank plant put us on Russia's list. I =
>>>remember one day my dad brought home a Dayton newspaper; its Sunday magazin=
>>>e supplement had a story on a theoretical nuclear bombing of Dayton, probab=
>>>ly centered on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The circles of destruction=
>>> did not even reach us. I felt somehow insulted.
>>
>>You shouldn't have felt insulted. Soviet CEP in those days was large enough that
>>at least one of the warheads aimed at WPAFB would have missed.
>>
>>From an 1980 RAND analysis, there are several kinds of variability
>>involved:

If that's what you want you might want to check out
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
which gives you a tool for estimating various kinds of blast radii in
any city your choose.

Since I live in Canada's largest seaport I'm working on the assumption
that there either is or were multiple ICBM's (or MIRVs) aimed at my
home town and thus my chance of survival is minimal at best if the
balloon goes up. Not quite living in Hanford, WA but certainly a prime
economic target.

>> RV to RV (height of burst errors, CEP errors)
>> missile-to-missile (reliability, impact points)
>> target-to-target (target hardness, altitude misestimation).
>>
>>RV: Reentry vehicle containing warhead
>>
>> "It is important to note that the effect of missile-to-missile
>> random variations ... can be largely offset by cross-targeting.
>> ... Unfortunately, cross-targeting makes timing of warhead impact more
>> difficult, potentially increasing fratricide."
>
>Fratricide doesn't appear to be a problem for Russian leaders, given
>their having the troops camp out in Chernobyl's Red Forest.
>
>The Russian /soldiers/ who did the camping, it was a problem for.
>They're the ones said to have radiation sickness.