Although perhaps not quite as near to my heart as the 1970s (when
I explored science fiction as an enthusiastic if not very discerning
teen) or the 1980s (when I first encountered science fiction as an
adult), the 1990s were nevertheless an interesting period in science
fiction, one whose examples deserve better than to be consigned to
miscellaneous.

Welcome to The End of History, which takes its title from Francis
Fukuyama's visionary 1992 text, The End of History and the Last Man.
Just as Fukuyama's book celebrated the complete, eternal triumph of
liberal democracy over other forms of government, so too will The
End of History celebrate the science fiction of the 1990s.

https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/post/the-end-of-history
--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

On Thursday, October 27, 2022 at 7:17:57 AM UTC-6, James Nicoll wrote:

> Just as Fukuyama's book celebrated the complete, eternal triumph of
> liberal democracy over other forms of government, so too will The
> End of History celebrate the science fiction of the 1990s.

Even at the time, I felt he was over-optimistic. After all, Red China was
still under Communism.

But this shining moment _could_ have been consolidated. It's really
quite simple. According to a TIME magazine article, at one point during
the Clinton Administration, China had only one nuclear submarine, and it
was in dock for repairs.

If that had been true, it was time for a pre-emptive strike. Then strike a
deal with Russia - massive economic assistance, in return for unilateral
nuclear disarmament by Russia.

No threat from China, no need for India to acquire nukes, and thus no need
for Pakistan to acquire nukes. That would have meant a permanently
peaceful world, just as was hoped for.

Instead...

We've all heard that Russia's war on Ukraine has threatened food supplies
for some poor countries.

Well, I've just read an article that says that... the Mississippi has dried up.

And several *other* major U.S. rivers are also quite low, because of the hottest
year on record... of course, thanks to global warming.

It claims that food security *in the United States* is likely to soon be at issue.

Think of the Texas drought of 1950, but over a much larger area.

Now, I would think that Americans _would_ still have enough to eat,
regardless. Because there _are_ options.

Massive desalination projects.

Bringing back NAWAPA. The long term environmental impacts of such a
project are, of course, inconsequential when people are going hungry!

And just importing food from areas with a cooler climate. So both
Canadians and Americans will have to switch to a vegetarian diet for
a year or two until the drought ends. We'll survive.

Famine in the United States is simply something that *will not happen*
because the United States happens to be rich and powerful enough to
have options.

John Savard

On Thursday, October 27, 2022 at 11:12:26 AM UTC-6, Quadibloc wrote:

> Bringing back NAWAPA. The long term environmental impacts of such a
> project are, of course, inconsequential when people are going hungry!

Of course, Canada currently has a law against the large-scale export of
water. However, I'm sure that it would be repealed quickly if our American
friends were faced with the threat of starvation.

I don't think that any Canadian government would be stupid enough to
instead plunge Canada into the alternative. Obviously, while the U.S. is
respectful of the sovereignty of other democratic nations, and so despite
Pierre Trudeau restricting oil exports to the U.S. when Americans were in
gas line-ups, we didn't get invaded to take our oil... if a lot of Americans
start going hungry (that is, enough to even include _white_ ones) this would
be a point at which the American people would impel their government to
do what was necessary for their very survival.

So I expect Canada would cooperate with a revived NAWAPA in the face
of major droughts in the U.S. in order that Canada would continue to exist.
What I hope is that the flow of water could eventually be turned off when
it is no longer required, and steps would be taken to shift energy production
to nuclear power and so on, so that - better late than never - carbon targets
would be met, and the world would start to heal itself, without major loss of
life, at least in the Western industrialized world.

Of course, survivors in the Third World would likely be embittered - and a
Western industrialized world which had already suffered problems would
likely have very little patience with any further losses due to terrorist attacks.

Usually, the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer. When things get tough,
it becomes: the rich survive, the poor die like flies. Of course, nuclear
weapons in the hands of Russia and China do complicate things.

John Savard

Quadibloc <jsavard@ecn.ab.ca> writes:
>On Thursday, October 27, 2022 at 11:12:26 AM UTC-6, Quadibloc wrote:
>
>> Bringing back NAWAPA. The long term environmental impacts of such a
>> project are, of course, inconsequential when people are going hungry!
>
>Of course, Canada currently has a law against the large-scale export of
>water. However, I'm sure that it would be repealed quickly if our American
>friends were faced with the threat of starvation.

Hmm, perhaps North Dakota should redirect the Red River then; Ontario
has enough water to supply Manitoba :-J

On Thursday, October 27, 2022 at 2:17:57 PM UTC+1, James Nicoll wrote:
> Although perhaps not quite as near to my heart as the 1970s (when
> I explored science fiction as an enthusiastic if not very discerning
> teen) or the 1980s (when I first encountered science fiction as an
> adult), the 1990s were nevertheless an interesting period in science
> fiction, one whose examples deserve better than to be consigned to
> miscellaneous.
>
> Welcome to The End of History, which takes its title from Francis
> Fukuyama's visionary 1992 text, The End of History and the Last Man.
> Just as Fukuyama's book celebrated the complete, eternal triumph of
> liberal democracy over other forms of government, so too will The
> End of History celebrate the science fiction of the 1990s.
>
> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/post/the-end-of-history
> --
> My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
> My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
> My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
> My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll
OT, but I can recommend two books that Fukuyama wrote after "The End of History" - "The Origins of Political Order..." and "Political Order and Political Decay..." I got to these via a recommendation from somebody doing a PPE Degree in a very good University (Politics, Philosophy, and Economics - typically what you study if you want to be Prime Minister) - and I liked them.. The Political Decay book has an interesting story of the rise and fall of professionalism and prestige within the US Forest Service (from memory).

That reminds me - we may not have Steady Freddy, but we have PM Dishi Rishi now, and what most people said about Steady Freddy was "I didn't vote for him". Well, Rishi Sunak is PM after a vote held within Conservative Party MPs, so most people can indeed say "I didn't vote for him" (I actually think he is a perfectly valid PM, because I am a great fan of being able to change leaders at the drop of a hat, if necessary, and this pretty much implies something like a ballot of MPs, but it makes the resemblance to Beta Colony stronger, so I point it out here).

In article <23c50602-a630-47c5-9e0a-34b45092809an@googlegroups.com>,
Andrew McDowell <mcdowell_ag@sky.com> wrote:
>On Thursday, October 27, 2022 at 2:17:57 PM UTC+1, James Nicoll wrote:
>> Although perhaps not quite as near to my heart as the 1970s (when
>> I explored science fiction as an enthusiastic if not very discerning
>> teen) or the 1980s (when I first encountered science fiction as an
>> adult), the 1990s were nevertheless an interesting period in science
>> fiction, one whose examples deserve better than to be consigned to
>> miscellaneous.
>>
>> Welcome to The End of History, which takes its title from Francis
>> Fukuyama's visionary 1992 text, The End of History and the Last Man.
>> Just as Fukuyama's book celebrated the complete, eternal triumph of
>> liberal democracy over other forms of government, so too will The
>> End of History celebrate the science fiction of the 1990s.
>>
>> https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/post/the-end-of-history
>> --
>> My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
>> My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
>> My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
>> My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll
>OT, but I can recommend two books that Fukuyama wrote after "The
>End of History" - "The Origins of Political Order..." and
>"Political Order and Political Decay..." I got to these via a
>recommendation from somebody doing a PPE Degree in a very good
>University (Politics, Philosophy, and Economics - typically what
>you study if you want to be Prime Minister) - and I liked them.
>The Political Decay book has an interesting story of the rise and
>fall of professionalism and prestige within the US Forest Service
>(from memory).
>
>That reminds me - we may not have Steady Freddy, but we have PM
>Dishi Rishi now, and what most people said about Steady Freddy
>was "I didn't vote for him". Well, Rishi Sunak is PM after a vote
>held within Conservative Party MPs, so most people can indeed say
>"I didn't vote for him" (I actually think he is a perfectly valid
>PM, because I am a great fan of being able to change leaders at
>the drop of a hat, if necessary, and this pretty much implies
>something like a ballot of MPs, but it makes the resemblance to
>Beta Colony stronger, so I point it out here).

Canada having a similar system, it's not unheard of to wake up
with a different premier than the day before without an intervening
election. However, it seems to me the old fellows generally are
fleeing having pissed off their base, so the new guy often gets
hammered at the next general election. Obs not an issue for Sunak,
who will be gone soon, but I pity whichever nonentity is PM
when the next election comes round. I guess they can hope WWIII
comes first.
--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

On Thursday, October 27, 2022 at 9:17:57 AM UTC-4, James Nicoll wrote:
[snip]
> Welcome to The End of History, which takes its title from Francis
> Fukuyama's visionary 1992 text, The End of History and the Last Man.
> Just as Fukuyama's book celebrated the complete, eternal triumph of
> liberal democracy over other forms of government, so too will The
> End of History celebrate the science fiction of the 1990s. [snip]

Fukuyama's 1989 essay "The End of History?" qualified the limits
of his claims about the disappearance of Fascism [1] and
Communism as credible ideological alternatives to economic and
political liberalism in the developed world. For example:

"Russia and China are not likely to join the developed nations of
the West as liberal societies any time in the foreseeable future"
[p.14]

"Unlike the propagators of traditional Marxism-Leninism, however,
ultranationalists in the USSR believe in their Slavophile cause
passionately, and one gets the sense that the fascist alternative
is not one that has played itself out entirely there." [p.17]

"This does not by any means imply the end of international conflict
per se. For the world at that point would be divided between a
part that was historical and a part that was post-historical.
Conflict between states still in history, and between those states
and those at the end of history, would still be possible. There
would still be a high and perhaps rising level of ethnic and
nationalist violence, since those are impulses incompletely played
out, even in parts of the post-historical world." [p.17]

[1] "Fascism" here denotes any organized ultra nationalist movement
with universalistic pretensions - not universalistic with regard to its
nationalism, of course, since the latter is exclusive by definition, but
with regard to the movement's belief in its right to rule other people.
Hence Imperial Japan would qualify as fascist while former
strongman Stoessner's Paraguay or Pinochet's Chile would not.
Obviously fascist ideologies cannot be universalistic in the sense of
Marxism or liberalism, but the structure of the doctrine can be
transferred from country to country." [p.7]

ObSF: Fukuyama made at least one SF-relevant prediction in his article:
"In the post-historical period there will be neither art nor philosophy,
just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history. I can
feel in myself, and see in others around me, a powerful nostalgia for
the time when history existed."

One wonders if the recent popularity of fantasy, especially portal
fantasy ("isekai"), urban fantasy and perhaps some other subgenres,
may be due to the loss of agency in the modern world with its high
population density, proliferation of complex social structures and a
distinct lack of unexplored/"wild" lands.

On Thursday, October 27, 2022 at 3:48:12 PM UTC-4, mcdow...@sky.com wrote:
> On Thursday, October 27, 2022 at 2:17:57 PM UTC+1, James Nicoll wrote:
> > Although perhaps not quite as near to my heart as the 1970s (when
> > I explored science fiction as an enthusiastic if not very discerning
> > teen) or the 1980s (when I first encountered science fiction as an
> > adult), the 1990s were nevertheless an interesting period in science
> > fiction, one whose examples deserve better than to be consigned to
> > miscellaneous.
> >
> > Welcome to The End of History, which takes its title from Francis
> > Fukuyama's visionary 1992 text, The End of History and the Last Man.
> > Just as Fukuyama's book celebrated the complete, eternal triumph of
> > liberal democracy over other forms of government, so too will The
> > End of History celebrate the science fiction of the 1990s.
> >
> > https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/post/the-end-of-history
> > --
> > My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
> > My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
> > My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
> > My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll
> OT, but I can recommend two books that Fukuyama wrote after "The End of History" - "The Origins of Political Order..." and "Political Order and Political Decay..." I got to these via a recommendation from somebody doing a PPE Degree in a very good University (Politics, Philosophy, and Economics - typically what you study if you want to be Prime Minister) - and I liked them. The Political Decay book has an interesting story of the rise and fall of professionalism and prestige within the US Forest Service (from memory).
>
> That reminds me - we may not have Steady Freddy, but we have PM Dishi Rishi now, and what most people said about Steady Freddy was "I didn't vote for him".

This irritates me considerably, and more when someone who should have known better, like Starmer, exploits it.

Was he equally critical when Gordon Brown became PM? Or James Callaghan? Two labour PMs who took power in similar but less hilarious and
disturbing situations.

The liberals, in their brief ascendancy, seemed to specialize in it. (Rosebery, Asquith and Lloyd George), but the conservatives do seem to hold the record with
Law (Canadian!) , Baldwin, Chamberlain, Churchill, Eden, Macmillan, Douglas-Home (not even an MP at the time). Seven consecutive PMs chosen
in this way, though most later won election in their own right.

> Well, Rishi Sunak is PM after a vote held within Conservative Party MPs, so most people can indeed say "I didn't vote for him" (I actually think he is a perfectly valid PM, because I am a great fan of being able to change leaders at the drop of a hat,

It's one of the best features of the system, allowing the UK to get rid of Neville Chamberlain without holding an election in an emergency. And Truss, of course.

William Hyde

On Thursday, October 27, 2022 at 4:06:18 PM UTC-6, William Hyde wrote:

> It's one of the best features of the system, allowing the UK to get
> rid of Neville Chamberlain without holding an election in an
> emergency. And Truss, of course.

But Rishi Sunak may not be the new leader that the people of Britain
want at this time. Some people are saying that he is going to tear
down the NHS. And the Tories are quite low in the opinion polls.

Naturally, the Tories aren't going to call an election under those
circumstances.

But there is someone else who could dissolve Parliament and make
an election necessary. His name is Charles. Ah, but that would be
too partisan...

John Savard

On Thu, 27 Oct 2022 13:52:14 -0700, Ahasuerus wrote:

>
> ObSF: Fukuyama made at least one SF-relevant prediction in his article:
> "In the post-historical period there will be neither art nor philosophy,
> just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history. I can feel
> in myself, and see in others around me, a powerful nostalgia for the
> time when history existed."
>
> One wonders if the recent popularity of fantasy, especially portal
> fantasy ("isekai"), urban fantasy and perhaps some other subgenres,
> may be due to the loss of agency in the modern world with its high
> population density, proliferation of complex social structures and a
> distinct lack of unexplored/"wild" lands.

I don't buy the "nothing left to do" argument at all. Nor do I
buy the SF notion that our destiny is to become some kind of
group mind, as per Arthur C. Clarke. There's no upper limit to
the level of general knowledge that a population can have.
A little thought will convince that this is a worthy "wild land"
to explore and doing it can occupy a civilization for a long time,
maybe forever.

On Thu, 27 Oct 2022 10:12:23 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc
<jsavard@ecn.ab.ca> wrote:

>On Thursday, October 27, 2022 at 7:17:57 AM UTC-6, James Nicoll wrote:
>
>> Just as Fukuyama's book celebrated the complete, eternal triumph of
>> liberal democracy over other forms of government, so too will The
>> End of History celebrate the science fiction of the 1990s.
>
>Even at the time, I felt he was over-optimistic. After all, Red China was
>still under Communism.
>
>But this shining moment _could_ have been consolidated. It's really
>quite simple. According to a TIME magazine article, at one point during
>the Clinton Administration, China had only one nuclear submarine, and it
>was in dock for repairs.
>
>If that had been true, it was time for a pre-emptive strike. Then strike a
>deal with Russia - massive economic assistance, in return for unilateral
>nuclear disarmament by Russia.
>
>No threat from China, no need for India to acquire nukes, and thus no need
>for Pakistan to acquire nukes. That would have meant a permanently
>peaceful world, just as was hoped for.
>
>Instead...
>
>We've all heard that Russia's war on Ukraine has threatened food supplies
>for some poor countries.
>
>Well, I've just read an article that says that... the Mississippi has dried up.
>
>And several *other* major U.S. rivers are also quite low, because of the hottest
>year on record... of course, thanks to global warming.
>
>It claims that food security *in the United States* is likely to soon be at issue.

Food security in the USA has been an issue for a lot of people for a
long time. This is nothing new for them.

>Think of the Texas drought of 1950, but over a much larger area.
>
>Now, I would think that Americans _would_ still have enough to eat,
>regardless. Because there _are_ options.
>
>Massive desalination projects.
>
>Bringing back NAWAPA. The long term environmental impacts of such a
>project are, of course, inconsequential when people are going hungry!
>
>And just importing food from areas with a cooler climate. So both
>Canadians and Americans will have to switch to a vegetarian diet for
>a year or two until the drought ends. We'll survive.
>
>Famine in the United States is simply something that *will not happen*
>because the United States happens to be rich and powerful enough to
>have options.
>
>John Savard
--
"In this connexion, unquestionably the most significant
development was the disintegration, under Christian
influence, of classical conceptions of the family and
of family right."

On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 4:04:57 AM UTC-4, Charles Packer wrote:
> On Thu, 27 Oct 2022 13:52:14 -0700, Ahasuerus wrote:
>
> >
> > ObSF: Fukuyama made at least one SF-relevant prediction in his article:
> > "In the post-historical period there will be neither art nor philosophy,
> > just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history. I can feel
> > in myself, and see in others around me, a powerful nostalgia for the
> > time when history existed."
> >
> > One wonders if the recent popularity of fantasy, especially portal
> > fantasy ("isekai"), urban fantasy and perhaps some other subgenres,
> > may be due to the loss of agency in the modern world with its high
> > population density, proliferation of complex social structures and a
> > distinct lack of unexplored/"wild" lands.
> I don't buy the "nothing left to do" argument at all. Nor do I
> buy the SF notion that our destiny is to become some kind of
> group mind, as per Arthur C. Clarke. There's no upper limit to
> the level of general knowledge that a population can have.
> A little thought will convince that this is a worthy "wild land"
> to explore and doing it can occupy a civilization for a long time,
> maybe forever.

Fukuyama's claim was not that there would be "nothing left to do"
in his hypothesized "post-historical" future. He wrote:

"The struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a
purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that called forth
daring, courage, imagination, and idealism, will be replaced by economic
calculation, the endless solving of technical problems, environmental
concerns, and the satisfaction of sophisticated consumer demands."

The growth of "the level of general knowledge" would presumably fall
under "the endless solving of technical problems". Fukuyama thought
that it would be a "sad" change -- to each his own.

On 10/28/2022 10:36 AM, Ahasuerus wrote:
> On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 4:04:57 AM UTC-4, Charles Packer wrote:
>> On Thu, 27 Oct 2022 13:52:14 -0700, Ahasuerus wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> ObSF: Fukuyama made at least one SF-relevant prediction in his article:
>>> "In the post-historical period there will be neither art nor philosophy,
>>> just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history. I can feel
>>> in myself, and see in others around me, a powerful nostalgia for the
>>> time when history existed."
>>>
>>> One wonders if the recent popularity of fantasy, especially portal
>>> fantasy ("isekai"), urban fantasy and perhaps some other subgenres,
>>> may be due to the loss of agency in the modern world with its high
>>> population density, proliferation of complex social structures and a
>>> distinct lack of unexplored/"wild" lands.
>> I don't buy the "nothing left to do" argument at all. Nor do I
>> buy the SF notion that our destiny is to become some kind of
>> group mind, as per Arthur C. Clarke. There's no upper limit to
>> the level of general knowledge that a population can have.
>> A little thought will convince that this is a worthy "wild land"
>> to explore and doing it can occupy a civilization for a long time,
>> maybe forever.
>
> Fukuyama's claim was not that there would be "nothing left to do"
> in his hypothesized "post-historical" future. He wrote:
>
> "The struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a
> purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that called forth
> daring, courage, imagination, and idealism, will be replaced by economic
> calculation, the endless solving of technical problems, environmental
> concerns, and the satisfaction of sophisticated consumer demands."
>
> The growth of "the level of general knowledge" would presumably fall
> under "the endless solving of technical problems". Fukuyama thought
> that it would be a "sad" change -- to each his own.

So his underlying assumption is that humans will at some point stop
being irrational.

ROFLMAO.

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

In article <tjhfmc$362np$1@dont-email.me>,
Dimensional Traveler <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:
>On 10/28/2022 10:36 AM, Ahasuerus wrote:
>> On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 4:04:57 AM UTC-4, Charles Packer wrote:
>>> On Thu, 27 Oct 2022 13:52:14 -0700, Ahasuerus wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>> ObSF: Fukuyama made at least one SF-relevant prediction in
>his article:
>>>> "In the post-historical period there will be neither art nor
>philosophy,
>>>> just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history.
>I can feel
>>>> in myself, and see in others around me, a powerful nostalgia for the
>>>> time when history existed."
>>>>
>>>> One wonders if the recent popularity of fantasy, especially portal
>>>> fantasy ("isekai"), urban fantasy and perhaps some other subgenres,
>>>> may be due to the loss of agency in the modern world with its high
>>>> population density, proliferation of complex social structures and a
>>>> distinct lack of unexplored/"wild" lands.
>>> I don't buy the "nothing left to do" argument at all. Nor do I
>>> buy the SF notion that our destiny is to become some kind of
>>> group mind, as per Arthur C. Clarke. There's no upper limit to
>>> the level of general knowledge that a population can have.
>>> A little thought will convince that this is a worthy "wild land"
>>> to explore and doing it can occupy a civilization for a long time,
>>> maybe forever.
>>
>> Fukuyama's claim was not that there would be "nothing left to do"
>> in his hypothesized "post-historical" future. He wrote:
>>
>> "The struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a
>> purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that
>called forth
>> daring, courage, imagination, and idealism, will be replaced by
>economic
>> calculation, the endless solving of technical problems, environmental
>> concerns, and the satisfaction of sophisticated consumer demands."
>>
>> The growth of "the level of general knowledge" would presumably fall
>> under "the endless solving of technical problems". Fukuyama thought
>> that it would be a "sad" change -- to each his own.
>
>So his underlying assumption is that humans will at some point stop
>being irrational.
>
>ROFLMAO.

Humans will at some point stop, period, and all their aspects
will vanish with them.

--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 4:58:28 PM UTC-4, James Nicoll wrote:
> In article <tjhfmc$362np$1...@dont-email.me>,
> Dimensional Traveler <dtr...@sonic.net> wrote:
> >On 10/28/2022 10:36 AM, Ahasuerus wrote:
> >> On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 4:04:57 AM UTC-4, Charles Packer wrote:
> >>> On Thu, 27 Oct 2022 13:52:14 -0700, Ahasuerus wrote:
> >>>
> >>>>
> >>>> ObSF: Fukuyama made at least one SF-relevant prediction in
> >his article:
> >>>> "In the post-historical period there will be neither art nor
> >philosophy,
> >>>> just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history.
> >I can feel
> >>>> in myself, and see in others around me, a powerful nostalgia for the
> >>>> time when history existed."
> >>>>
> >>>> One wonders if the recent popularity of fantasy, especially portal
> >>>> fantasy ("isekai"), urban fantasy and perhaps some other subgenres,
> >>>> may be due to the loss of agency in the modern world with its high
> >>>> population density, proliferation of complex social structures and a
> >>>> distinct lack of unexplored/"wild" lands.
> >>> I don't buy the "nothing left to do" argument at all. Nor do I
> >>> buy the SF notion that our destiny is to become some kind of
> >>> group mind, as per Arthur C. Clarke. There's no upper limit to
> >>> the level of general knowledge that a population can have.
> >>> A little thought will convince that this is a worthy "wild land"
> >>> to explore and doing it can occupy a civilization for a long time,
> >>> maybe forever.
> >>
> >> Fukuyama's claim was not that there would be "nothing left to do"
> >> in his hypothesized "post-historical" future. He wrote:
> >>
> >> "The struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a
> >> purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that
> >called forth
> >> daring, courage, imagination, and idealism, will be replaced by
> >economic
> >> calculation, the endless solving of technical problems, environmental
> >> concerns, and the satisfaction of sophisticated consumer demands."
> >>
> >> The growth of "the level of general knowledge" would presumably fall
> >> under "the endless solving of technical problems". Fukuyama thought
> >> that it would be a "sad" change -- to each his own.
> >
> >So his underlying assumption is that humans will at some point stop
> >being irrational.
> >
> >ROFLMAO.
> Humans will at some point stop, period, and all their aspects
> will vanish with them.

There weren't modern democracies in the pre literate world. I suspect there will not be any more in the coming post literate world.

John

On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 11:04:21 AM UTC-6, Paul S Person wrote:

> Food security in the USA has been an issue for a lot of people for a
> long time. This is nothing new for them.

Yes. But when it becomes an issue for more people, instead of just
the powerless, things will happen.

John Savard

On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 11:36:32 AM UTC-6, Ahasuerus wrote:

> Fukuyama's claim was not that there would be "nothing left to do"
> in his hypothesized "post-historical" future. He wrote:
>
> "The struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a
> purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that called forth
> daring, courage, imagination, and idealism, will be replaced by economic
> calculation, the endless solving of technical problems, environmental
> concerns, and the satisfaction of sophisticated consumer demands."

While that isn't _absolutely_ nothing left to do, still, that could be a valid
way to summarize it briefly, even if at the cost of some oversimplification.

The defeat of Communist tyranny was a good thing in the same way that
the defeat of Nazi tyranny was a good thing. To think that a world at peace
would be a sad change is just silly; a world in peace gives us a better chance
of staying alive.

For people to be daring and courageous - well, for example, there is the
exploration of space.

John Savard

On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 2:58:28 PM UTC-6, James Nicoll wrote:

> Humans will at some point stop, period, and all their aspects
> will vanish with them.

That's true, but it's not really a counterargument to the claim that
humans will always behave irrationally.

In the past, though, while it's certainly _true_ that there have always
been some humans behaving irrationally, there had been enough
humans behaving in a mostly rational manner in charge of things
in at least some places, so that things could get done.

The dream of a world in which rational people are firmly in charge,
so that things like war just don't happen... might seem difficult of
attainment at present, but I don't see it as *inherently* impossible.

Of course, there's that other little problem of people tending irrationally
to have more kids than we're going to be able to feed. That, not an
innate human propensity for violence, is the _real_ engine that causes
wars to take place even without particularly evil people stirring the pot
up all by themselves. That's what really gives them something to work
with. So missing the real root of the problem, and looking at superficialities
is not a recipe for success.

John Savard

On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 10:36:29 -0700, Ahasuerus wrote:

> On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 4:04:57 AM UTC-4, Charles Packer wrote:
>> On Thu, 27 Oct 2022 13:52:14 -0700, Ahasuerus wrote:
>>
>
> The growth of "the level of general knowledge" would presumably fall
> under "the endless solving of technical problems". Fukuyama thought that
> it would be a "sad" change -- to each his own.

OK, so Fukuyama thinks there'll be nothing /exciting/ left to do.
Does he think that the percentage of people who want to spend
their time scaling thousand-foot cliffs will go to zero just because the
world is at peace? Not to mention the percentage of people who
would want to spend time watching them do it.

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 4:10:59 AM UTC-4, Charles Packer wrote:
> On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 10:36:29 -0700, Ahasuerus wrote:
>
> > On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 4:04:57 AM UTC-4, Charles Packer wrote:
> >> On Thu, 27 Oct 2022 13:52:14 -0700, Ahasuerus wrote:
> > The growth of "the level of general knowledge" would presumably fall
> > under "the endless solving of technical problems". Fukuyama thought that
> > it would be a "sad" change -- to each his own.
> OK, so Fukuyama thinks there'll be nothing /exciting/ left to do.
> Does he think that the percentage of people who want to spend
> their time scaling thousand-foot cliffs will go to zero just because the
> world is at peace? Not to mention the percentage of people who
> would want to spend time watching them do it.

Fukuyama's claim was about the disappearance of:

"The struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a
purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that called forth
daring, courage, imagination, and idealism"

in a "post-historical" society. There are, of course, many other things
that humans can find exciting, including sports.

Also, Fukuyama did not predict a "world at peace". He wrote:

"This does not by any means imply the end of international conflict
per se."

On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 17:41:32 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc
<jsavard@ecn.ab.ca> wrote:

>On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 2:58:28 PM UTC-6, James Nicoll wrote:
>
>> Humans will at some point stop, period, and all their aspects
>> will vanish with them.
>
>That's true, but it's not really a counterargument to the claim that
>humans will always behave irrationally.
>
>In the past, though, while it's certainly _true_ that there have always
>been some humans behaving irrationally, there had been enough
>humans behaving in a mostly rational manner in charge of things
>in at least some places, so that things could get done.
>
>The dream of a world in which rational people are firmly in charge,
>so that things like war just don't happen... might seem difficult of
>attainment at present, but I don't see it as *inherently* impossible.

There are no "rational" people.

Just those who appear rational at the moment because of the lack of
stress.

>Of course, there's that other little problem of people tending irrationally
>to have more kids than we're going to be able to feed. That, not an
>innate human propensity for violence, is the _real_ engine that causes
>wars to take place even without particularly evil people stirring the pot
>up all by themselves. That's what really gives them something to work
>with. So missing the real root of the problem, and looking at superficialities
>is not a recipe for success.

IIRC, Swift had a simple solution for that (or a similar) problem.
--
"In this connexion, unquestionably the most significant
development was the disintegration, under Christian
influence, of classical conceptions of the family and
of family right."

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 10:20:19 AM UTC-6, Paul S Person wrote:

> There are no "rational" people.
>
> Just those who appear rational at the moment because of the lack of
> stress.

Like the lion, when it has just eaten. Well, some people manage to be
dangerously irrational even in the absence of stressors; the poor and
desperate are already away from the levers of power. It's locking up
people like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping that's needed for a safer
world, but doing so, at the moment, is an impossibility similar to bellling
the cat.

> IIRC, Swift had a simple solution for that (or a similar) problem.

And it even involved a recipe. However, it is not practical or acceptable,
and therefore is not useful for the purpose of actually addressing the
problem.

I think one will have to go with another culinary analogy, this one
courtesy of Marie Antoinette, for achieving eternal social stability.

Let vat-girls have cats!

....but as pets, of course.

John Savard

On Sat, 29 Oct 2022 07:11:05 -0700, Ahasuerus wrote:
>
> Fukuyama's claim was about the disappearance of:
>
> "The struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a
> purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that called
> forth daring, courage, imagination, and idealism"
>
> in a "post-historical" society. There are, of course, many other things
> that humans can find exciting, including sports.
>
> Also, Fukuyama did not predict a "world at peace". He wrote:
>
> "This does not by any means imply the end of international conflict per
> se."

Going back to your original quote though, Fukuyama said
"In the post-historical period there will be neither art nor philosophy,
just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history."
That's a rather sweeping statement. He's not competent in going
from abstractions to particulars. As it happens, I have
recently read excerpts of several of his books to see if he had
anything to say about the social contract. I was surprised to
find his thinking not all that rigorous, leaning toward
journalistic in some places.

On Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 3:17:39 AM UTC-4, Charles Packer wrote:
> On Sat, 29 Oct 2022 07:11:05 -0700, Ahasuerus wrote:
> >
> > Fukuyama's claim was about the disappearance of:
> >
> > "The struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a
> > purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that called
> > forth daring, courage, imagination, and idealism"
> >
> > in a "post-historical" society. There are, of course, many other things
> > that humans can find exciting, including sports.
> >
> > Also, Fukuyama did not predict a "world at peace". He wrote:
> >
> > "This does not by any means imply the end of international conflict per
> > se."
> Going back to your original quote though, Fukuyama said
> "In the post-historical period there will be neither art nor philosophy,
> just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history."
> That's a rather sweeping statement. [snip]

It did seem like an unexpectedly strong statement. I can see why he
would have thought that the disappearance of a "worldwide ideological
struggle that called forth daring, courage, imagination, and idealism"
would "significantly affect art" (or words to that effect), but his claim
was much stronger than that.