Tonight's episode is titled "Don't Get Cocky, Kid." Carson dies tonight and based on a preview clip at the press site, it looks like it have been the result of a recent award. I'm pretty sure the episode is going to start with a crying Frannie who was left widowed after the last TC..

--
Brian

On Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at 4:35:15 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
> Tonight's episode is titled "Don't Get Cocky, Kid." Carson dies tonight and based on a preview clip at the press site, it looks like it have been the result of a recent award. I'm pretty sure the >episode is going to start with a crying Frannie who was left widowed after the last TC..

Given that this episode was supposed to have included "Carson's death", I made a point to watch it on Wednesday night for a change. However,
I have to say that only seeing him vomit once in the bushes left me feeling more than a little cheated. :-)
Otherwise, I thought that E08 was a pretty good episode despite the overly long immunity challenge that was accompanied by Jeff Probst's
microphone volume being set to "stun", and Danny's bodily function being included in the edit (Yuck!).
There were two important takeaways from E08 IMO:
-Heidi revealed that her goal when playing the "Control a Vote" advantage in E07 was to avoid making any members of the former Orange
Tribe mad at her. She said that since there was no way that she could have changed the outcome of the vote (not true), she chose to
try to make as few waves as possible. As Brian said in another thread, the implementation of the CAV advantage did not have anywhere
near the effect on the TC that Probst et al had hoped.
-Danny, Carson, and Yum Yum made some pretty ballsy strategic moves at TC. Danny's decision to stick to the plan took a lot of courage
given that, for all he knew, Yum may have told the members of the former Orange Tribe about his idol secret. A lot of other players would
have taken the safe route in that situation, and just played the advantage on themselves. Regarding Carson and Yummy, they both had
talked about the importance of keeping the three members of the former Purple Tribe "in the middle", and not being seen as aligned with
the remaining members of either the Yellow or Orange Tribes. By splitting their votes (Yum and Carson voted for Frannie and Carolyn voted
for Brandon), they gave the impression that each of their individual votes were available, and that they would not necessarily be voting as
a block. Neither of them are challenge threats (except perhaps Carson with puzzles) and so their value as "votes-for-hire" is what will likely
keep them in the game. At F9 (with the players split 3-3-3 along original tribal lines) I would look for Carson, Yam, and Carolyn to split their
votes again.

One other comment:
-In confessional, Yum Yum referred to the three members of the former Purple Tribe as being The Three Stooges. It seems likely that, as a
boy growing up in Puerto Rico, he never had the opportunity to see the classic comedy trio in action. If he had, I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't
have used them as a complementary nickname for his alliance.

On Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 6:26:28 PM UTC-6, zeppo wrote:
> On Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at 4:35:15 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
> > Tonight's episode is titled "Don't Get Cocky, Kid." Carson dies tonight and based on a preview clip at the press site, it looks like it have been the result of a recent award. I'm pretty sure the >episode is going to start with a crying Frannie who was left widowed after the last TC..
> Given that this episode was supposed to have included "Carson's death", I made a point to watch it on Wednesday night for a change. However,
> I have to say that only seeing him vomit once in the bushes left me feeling more than a little cheated. :-)

Jeff didn't want to traumatize the kids. After all, that is who the show is directed at.

> Otherwise, I thought that E08 was a pretty good episode despite the overly long immunity challenge that was accompanied by Jeff Probst's
> microphone volume being set to "stun", and Danny's bodily function being included in the edit (Yuck!).

It was a good episode but left us with a number of unanswered questions.

Danny's fart wasn't the only WTF moment. Carolyn's "itchy" moment on the bench during the last part of the IC was another. Her not being able to get out of the net while Carson tried to yell encouragement to her with no voice was pretty funny as well.

> There were two important takeaways from E08 IMO:
> -Heidi revealed that her goal when playing the "Control a Vote" advantage in E07 was to avoid making any members of the former Orange
> Tribe mad at her. She said that since there was no way that she could have changed the outcome of the vote (not true), she chose to
> try to make as few waves as possible. As Brian said in another thread, the implementation of the CAV advantage did not have anywhere
> near the effect on the TC that Probst et al had hoped.
> -Danny, Carson, and Yum Yum made some pretty ballsy strategic moves at TC.. Danny's decision to stick to the plan took a lot of courage
> given that, for all he knew, Yum may have told the members of the former Orange Tribe about his idol secret. A lot of other players would
> have taken the safe route in that situation, and just played the advantage on themselves. Regarding Carson and Yummy, they both had
> talked about the importance of keeping the three members of the former Purple Tribe "in the middle", and not being seen as aligned with
> the remaining members of either the Yellow or Orange Tribes. By splitting their votes (Yum and Carson voted for Frannie and Carolyn voted
> for Brandon), they gave the impression that each of their individual votes were available, and that they would not necessarily be voting as
> a block. Neither of them are challenge threats (except perhaps Carson with puzzles) and so their value as "votes-for-hire" is what will likely
> keep them in the game. At F9 (with the players split 3-3-3 along original tribal lines) I would look for Carson, Yam, and Carolyn to split their
> votes again.

If Heidi convinced Danny to play his HII she's playing a very underrated game. Not only did it result in Brandon's ouster, it also flushed Danny's HII.. I think her strategic game might be one of the best this season.

> One other comment:
> -In confessional, Yum Yum referred to the three members of the former Purple Tribe as being The Three Stooges. It seems likely that, as a
> boy growing up in Puerto Rico, he never had the opportunity to see the classic comedy trio in action. If he had, I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't
> have used them as a complementary nickname for his alliance.

A few comments from me:

--I thought Lauren lucked out with the IC twist. When was the last time players got to decide for themselves who they would pair up with in an IC post merge? Without Danny as her partner I doubt Lauren would have won immunity.. She also lucked out being up against three guys at the end as that challenge favored smaller players.

--In terms of powers, are we down to Lauren with an extra vote and Carolyn with an idol? There's a bonus clip where Kane finds Brandon's fake, confirms it with him, and then rehides it in the same place. IIRC, Jaime still has a fake idol but thinks its real.

--I thought Kane got a good edit. Near the start of the episode when he uttered the episode title I thought he might be doomed but he had a strong showing. Going into the episode, I was convinced "Don't Get Cocky, Kid" applied to Carson.

--Did you notice how at one point Matt reentered the game in Kane's body?!

https://twitter.com/RobsFactChecker/status/1648846992335081472

--According to Mike Bloom, this was the first time Brandon was vulnerable.

https://twitter.com/AMikeBloomType/status/1649025223537090561

--Fun fact from Mike Bloomberg:

Danny is the first person to successfully play an idol on someone else at Tribal Council since Davie played his on Christian back during the minority vote split in David vs. Goliath

https://twitter.com/AMikeBloomType/status/1648853109773332481

Given how recent seasons have had so many idols floating around that is actually an amazing fact.

--Is Danny next to go? I love that he saved Frannie but what does he get out of it? He's the biggest physical threat now which is probably reason enough to target him.

--
Brian

On Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 6:26:28 PM UTC-6, zeppo wrote:
> On Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at 4:35:15 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
> > Tonight's episode is titled "Don't Get Cocky, Kid." Carson dies tonight and based on a preview clip at the press site, it looks like it have been the result of a recent award. I'm pretty sure the >episode is going to start with a crying Frannie who was left widowed after the last TC..

> Otherwise, I thought that E08 was a pretty good episode despite the overly long immunity challenge that was accompanied by Jeff Probst's
> microphone volume being set to "stun", and Danny's bodily function being included in the edit (Yuck!).

Some interesting stats from Rob's Fact Checker concerning amount of time spent on one challenge in a single episode:

The most time spent at one challenge in a single episode of #Survivor:

#1 S32 Caleb Medevac: 22:09
#2 S43 Gabler Wins Immunity: 18:57
#3 S11 11-Mile Hike: 18:55
#4 S44 Lauren Wins Immunity: 17:37

Source: https://twitter.com/RobsFactChecker/status/1649451510382882817

--
Brian

On Friday, April 21, 2023 at 11:13:30 AM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
> The most time spent at one challenge in a single episode of #Survivor:
>
> #1 S32 Caleb Medevac: 22:09
> #2 S43 Gabler Wins Immunity: 18:57
> #3 S11 11-Mile Hike: 18:55
> #4 S44 Lauren Wins Immunity: 17:37

Interesting. But I would not consider the S11 example to be a challenge. The two tribes were
each given a map which they used to find their way to their camps. It was just a variation of the
usual boat journey that had been used prior to that season.

On Friday, April 21, 2023 at 3:54:37 PM UTC-6, zeppo wrote:
> On Friday, April 21, 2023 at 11:13:30 AM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > The most time spent at one challenge in a single episode of #Survivor:
> >
> > #1 S32 Caleb Medevac: 22:09
> > #2 S43 Gabler Wins Immunity: 18:57
> > #3 S11 11-Mile Hike: 18:55
> > #4 S44 Lauren Wins Immunity: 17:37
> Interesting. But I would not consider the S11 example to be a challenge. The two tribes were
> each given a map which they used to find their way to their camps. It was just a variation of the
> usual boat journey that had been used prior to that season.

The show considered it to be a challenge.

--
Brian

On Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 9:50:26 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:

> Jeff didn't want to traumatize the kids. After all, that is who the show is directed at.

Good for him. It is important to keep the viewing audience (and their parents) happy. :-)

> Her not being able to get out of the net while Carson tried to yell encouragement to her with no voice was pretty funny as well.

That was amusing. But, to her credit, she didn't give up.

> If Heidi convinced Danny to play his HII she's playing a very underrated game. Not only did it result in Brandon's ouster, it also flushed Danny's HII. I think her strategic game might be one >of the best this season.

Except that there was no indication that it was anything other than Danny's idea. IMO, Heidi is playing her own game now as was shown in
her decision to tell Carson and Yum about Danny's immunity bracelet. The only reason that she did that was to build trust with two players who
she thought she might need in order to move forward after the F10 TC. The possibility that Danny might have ended up being blindsided as a
result didn't seem to matter to her. I also thought her rationale for using the CAV advantage in the way that she did was lame.

>Without Danny as her partner I doubt Lauren would have won immunity.

I'm not so sure about that. She appeared to make her way through the "twisting muddy net of doom" just as quickly as Danny did. It was not
like he was carrying her (figuratively speaking).
>She also lucked out being up against three guys at the end as that challenge favored smaller players.

I agree. As soon as I saw her little compact body beside two hulking guys and a third medium sized hulk, I was able to accurately predict the "drop order".
IMO, this challenge should have consisted of only the final portion which would have resulted in a more competitive contest. I understand that installing ten
of those stilt-like contraptions would have taken more work, but giving Heidi and Frannie a legitimate chance of winning immunity would have made the extra
labour worthwhile.

>In terms of powers, are we down to Lauren with an extra vote and Carolyn with an idol? IIRC, Jaime still has a fake idol but thinks it's real.

That's exactly right.

> I thought Kane got a good edit. Near the start of the episode when he uttered the episode title I thought he might be doomed but he had a strong showing.

Yes, its odd that the two most invisible players during the tribal portion of the game were so prominent in E08.

>Did you notice how at one point Matt reentered the game in Kane's body?!

No, I didn't notice the error when I was watching the episode. By this point in any season I have stopped reading the players'
names and occupations.

>Is Danny next to go? I love that he saved Frannie but what does he get out of it?

That's a really good question, and one that I was asking myself when Danny first mentioned the possibility of playing his idol for Frannie.
I wonder if he would have made the same play if he had known that his most trusted ally, Heidi, was going behind his back to make deals
with Carson and Yammy.

On Friday, April 21, 2023 at 5:17:35 PM UTC-6, zeppo wrote:
> On Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 9:50:26 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > Jeff didn't want to traumatize the kids. After all, that is who the show is directed at.
> Good for him. It is important to keep the viewing audience (and their parents) happy. :-)

Jeff could also be thinking long term. Today's young viewers could be tomorrow's future players just like Victoria and Cassidy were about 15 years ago..

> > If Heidi convinced Danny to play his HII she's playing a very underrated game. Not only did it result in Brandon's ouster, it also flushed Danny's HII. I think her strategic game might be one >of the best this season.
> Except that there was no indication that it was anything other than Danny's idea. IMO, Heidi is playing her own game now as was shown in
> her decision to tell Carson and Yum about Danny's immunity bracelet. The only reason that she did that was to build trust with two players who
> she thought she might need in order to move forward after the F10 TC. The possibility that Danny might have ended up being blindsided as a
> result didn't seem to matter to her. I also thought her rationale for using the CAV advantage in the way that she did was lame.

I thought Heidi suggested taking out Brandon? I agree that how she used the CAV advantage was lame.

> >Without Danny as her partner I doubt Lauren would have won immunity.
> I'm not so sure about that. She appeared to make her way through the "twisting muddy net of doom" just as quickly as Danny did. It was not
> like he was carrying her (figuratively speaking).

I'm not saying Lauren did bad in the challenge. To win that challenge you needed to have a good partner because you were only as good as them. There was no way to carry a weak partner. I think that's why Carolyn volunteered to team up with Carson. She knew she would suck but it wouldn't matter given that Carson was essentially dead.

> >She also lucked out being up against three guys at the end as that challenge favored smaller players.
> I agree. As soon as I saw her little compact body beside two hulking guys and a third medium sized hulk, I was able to accurately predict the "drop order".
> IMO, this challenge should have consisted of only the final portion which would have resulted in a more competitive contest. I understand that installing ten
> of those stilt-like contraptions would have taken more work, but giving Heidi and Frannie a legitimate chance of winning immunity would have made the extra
> labour worthwhile.

I wonder if they were expecting all guys at the end? I don't think anyone expected Lauren and Danny to team up.

> >In terms of powers, are we down to Lauren with an extra vote and Carolyn with an idol? IIRC, Jaime still has a fake idol but thinks it's real.
>
> That's exactly right.

We probably should factor Danny's idol back into the equation as someone is bound to find it.

> > I thought Kane got a good edit. Near the start of the episode when he uttered the episode title I thought he might be doomed but he had a strong showing.
> Yes, its odd that the two most invisible players during the tribal portion of the game were so prominent in E08.

And Jaime was invisible the entire time.

> >Is Danny next to go? I love that he saved Frannie but what does he get out of it?
> That's a really good question, and one that I was asking myself when Danny first mentioned the possibility of playing his idol for Frannie.
> I wonder if he would have made the same play if he had known that his most trusted ally, Heidi, was going behind his back to make deals
> with Carson and Yammy.

That's why I think Heidi is playing an underrated game. If she uses Yam Yam and Carson to takeout Danny that will be a huge move on her resume.

--
Brian

On Friday, April 21, 2023 at 5:58:48 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:

> I thought Heidi suggested taking out Brandon?

She did. But when she was pitching the idea to Danny, Yammy, and Carson, she was proposing that the members of the former Green and Purple
Tribes combine their votes to take out Brandon 6-4. From what we were shown, it was Danny who suggested that he use his bracelet on Frannie
as well.

> I'm not saying Lauren did bad in the challenge. To win that challenge you needed to have a good partner because you were only as good as them.

Okay. Gotcha. Certainly if Lauren had been stuck with Yammy, Carolyn, or Jaime, she would not have made it to the final stage.

>I think that's why Carolyn volunteered to team up with Carson. She knew she would suck but it wouldn't matter given that Carson was essentially dead.

She is also a kind-hearted and empathetic person who wanted to be supportive of Carson in that awkward situation.

> We probably should factor Danny's idol back into the equation as someone is bound to find it.

That is certainly possible since it is hidden at the location where the merged tribe is living. However, if this happens at some point during the
end-game, I think they would have shown the Kane "secret scene" in the show. After all, many of the casual viewers will have long forgotten
that Brandon ever had a fake immunity pendant.

> That's why I think Heidi is playing an underrated game. If she uses Yam Yam and Carson to takeout Danny that will be a huge move on her resume.

IMO, nobody is going to be using Carson, Yammy, and Carolyn for anything. Those three are playing their own game, and will do what is in their
collective best interest only. Furthermore, from this point forward, I predict that Kane will be more closely aligned with the former members of
Purple Tribe than with Lauren and Jaime.

On Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 6:00:13 PM UTC-6, zeppo wrote:
> On Friday, April 21, 2023 at 5:58:48 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > We probably should factor Danny's idol back into the equation as someone is bound to find it.
> That is certainly possible since it is hidden at the location where the merged tribe is living. However, if this happens at some point during the
> end-game, I think they would have shown the Kane "secret scene" in the show. After all, many of the casual viewers will have long forgotten
> that Brandon ever had a fake immunity pendant.

They could do a quick flashback scene to remind viewers. Given it's only F9 the odds of Danny's idol not being found would have to be essentially zero..

By the way, do you know who still has their SITD? Is it all of them except for Jaime?

> > That's why I think Heidi is playing an underrated game. If she uses Yam Yam and Carson to takeout Danny that will be a huge move on her resume.
> IMO, nobody is going to be using Carson, Yammy, and Carolyn for anything. Those three are playing their own game, and will do what is in their
> collective best interest only. Furthermore, from this point forward, I predict that Kane will be more closely aligned with the former members of
> Purple Tribe than with Lauren and Jaime.

We've seen Kane bond with Carson but I can't recall game interactions between him and Yam Yam or with Carolyn. Jaime's a nonfactor and I think he's expressed wanting to get rid of Lauren. The longer they wait to take her out the more powerful that extra vote becomes.

--
Brian

On Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 5:36:33 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:

> By the way, do you know who still has their SITD? Is it all of them except for Jaime?

Yes. Jaime foolishly used her SITD at the first TC.

> We've seen Kane bond with Carson but I can't recall game interactions between him and Yam Yam or with Carolyn.

Nor can I. But Kane had been pretty much invisible until E08, during which he had some confessionals and we saw him
plotting with, of all people, Brandon. So it is really difficult to get any read on Kane's place in the game. In fact, the
bond that appeared to exist between him and Carson may not actually be "a thing" anymore.

>Jaime's a nonfactor and I think he's expressed wanting to get rid of Lauren. The longer they wait to take her out the more powerful that extra vote becomes.
Lauren may be in trouble. We now know that she was Brandon's girl, and with Kane being the only other "true" Orange Tribe member left in the
game, she looks pretty isolated to me. At the beginning of E08, we saw her trying to reach out to Carolyn, but that didn't look to be going very well.