Tonight's episode is titled "I'm the Bandit." Based on the sneak peeks it looks like Carolyn will be targeted. But will Carson side with Yam Yam to take Carolyn out or will he backstab him. Taking Yam Yam out would be a big move. Definitely a lot better than taking out Jaime.

--
Brian

On Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 5:50:03 PM UTC-6, Brian Smith wrote:
> Tonight's episode is titled "I'm the Bandit." Based on the sneak peeks it looks like Carolyn will be targeted. But will Carson side with Yam Yam to take Carolyn out or will he backstab him. Taking Yam Yam out would be a big move. Definitely a lot better than taking out Jaime.
>
> --
> Brian

Tonight's episode was pretty good. I thought there were at least two major game mistakes made tonight. Here's what stood out for me in the episode:

--I thought Carolyn was very sloppy tonight. Telling everyone about the birdcage "X" was a huge mistake. That's something you save for your F3 speech to the jury. That made the target on her back way bigger. If she makes it to the end she needs to remind the jury she managed to overcome a huge strategic error.

--Was Jaime horrible in guiding Carolyn and Heidi during the RC or did they just suck at understanding her directions?

--What was Jaime thinking pushing the breakup of Tika to Carolyn? Taking out Carson makes sense but don't the others see how tight Tika are? She should have pushed Heidi harder to take out Carson.

--Lauren winning immunity was very unexpected for me. Heidi was so close to being guaranteed F4 but now I question if she'll get past F5.

--Yam Yam really hurt his game tonight when he didn't have the balls to take out Carolyn. It would have been a huge move for his resume. If he and Carolyn make F3 he's bound to be asked why he didn't take her out and he won't have a good answer.

--What was Heidi thinking playing her HII? She clearly was with Tika on the vote and there was no indication for her to think Jaime had found Carolyn's old idol. This will come back to haunt her.

--Other than sucking in the IC, I thought Carson looked great tonight. He was in control the entire time and seemed to know what was going on. If he makes it to the end I can't see him losing. He'll be able to present a strong case to the jury plus his jury management has been quite good.

--Jaime: "I love you Jeff." Loved her exit. Very likable person. I'm glad she enjoyed her experience.

Next week is the finale. Who's going to get screwed over by fire? I have a bad feeling that Lauren will make F3. If she does, she'll be the zero vote player.

--
Brian

On Wed, 17 May 2023 19:45:45 -0700 (PDT), Brian Smith
<dcg_brian@hotmail.com> wrote:

>On Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 5:50:03?PM UTC-6, Brian Smith wrote:
>> Tonight's episode is titled "I'm the Bandit." Based on the sneak peeks it looks like Carolyn will be targeted. But will Carson side with Yam Yam to take Carolyn out or will he backstab him. Taking Yam Yam out would be a big move. Definitely a lot better than taking out Jaime.
>>
>> --
>> Brian
>
>Tonight's episode was pretty good. I thought there were at least two major game mistakes made tonight. Here's what stood out for me in the episode:
>
>--I thought Carolyn was very sloppy tonight. Telling everyone about the birdcage "X" was a huge mistake. That's something you save for your F3 speech to the jury. That made the target on her back way bigger. If she makes it to the end she needs to remind the jury she managed to overcome a huge strategic error.
>
>--Was Jaime horrible in guiding Carolyn and Heidi during the RC or did they just suck at understanding her directions?
>
>--What was Jaime thinking pushing the breakup of Tika to Carolyn? Taking out Carson makes sense but don't the others see how tight Tika are? She should have pushed Heidi harder to take out Carson.
>
>--Lauren winning immunity was very unexpected for me. Heidi was so close to being guaranteed F4 but now I question if she'll get past F5.
>
>--Yam Yam really hurt his game tonight when he didn't have the balls to take out Carolyn. It would have been a huge move for his resume. If he and Carolyn make F3 he's bound to be asked why he didn't take her out and he won't have a good answer.
>
>--What was Heidi thinking playing her HII? She clearly was with Tika on the vote and there was no indication for her to think Jaime had found Carolyn's old idol. This will come back to haunt her.

My guess is she knows the Tika are playing together so she has to
worry about them playing her and voting her out. Certainly from a game
play standard she's more of a risk to keep around than Jaime so she
was just trying to make sure she didn't go home. Better to play the
idol and waste it than to not play it and go home.
>--Other than sucking in the IC, I thought Carson looked great tonight. He was in control the entire time and seemed to know what was going on. If he makes it to the end I can't see him losing. He'll be able to present a strong case to the jury plus his jury management has been quite good.

Will he? I don't disagree that Carson played a good game but it was so
under the table that the jury may not see it as a good game. While I
know you don't think Carolyn played a good game I think she did a much
better job and if she makes it to the final three she's the likely
winner. She had a much better relationship with everyone because she
wasn't seen as a threat and yet she was involved in those same moves
as Carson. Also she played an idol which shows that she had more game
play than the jury may have thought.
>--Jaime: "I love you Jeff." Loved her exit. Very likable person. I'm glad she enjoyed her experience.
>
>Next week is the finale. Who's going to get screwed over by fire? I have a bad feeling that Lauren will make F3. If she does, she'll be the zero vote player.

Not sure why they had the tribe move locations at this point in the
game. Are they hoping that by making them uncomfortable they will get
more drama? It never seems to work that way and yet they keep trying.

On Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 5:18:39 AM UTC-6, shawn wrote:
> On Wed, 17 May 2023 19:45:45 -0700 (PDT), Brian Smith
> <dcg_...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> >On Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 5:50:03?PM UTC-6, Brian Smith wrote:
> >> Tonight's episode is titled "I'm the Bandit." Based on the sneak peeks it looks like Carolyn will be targeted. But will Carson side with Yam Yam to take Carolyn out or will he backstab him. Taking Yam Yam out would be a big move. Definitely a lot better than taking out Jaime.
> >>
> >> --
> >> Brian
> >
> >--What was Heidi thinking playing her HII? She clearly was with Tika on the vote and there was no indication for her to think Jaime had found Carolyn's old idol. This will come back to haunt her.
> My guess is she knows the Tika are playing together so she has to
> worry about them playing her and voting her out. Certainly from a game
> play standard she's more of a risk to keep around than Jaime so she
> was just trying to make sure she didn't go home. Better to play the
> idol and waste it than to not play it and go home.

Taking out Heidi would have made way more sense than taking out Jaime but they seemed concerned about Lauren and Jaime being old tribemates. It's kind of strange how initial tribal bonds have lasted this deep into the game. Usually players can't wait to form new alliances once the merge happens.

Maybe Heidi did believe taking out Jaime made no sense. I still think she wasted her HII. My gut feeling is that Tika kept Heidi to help take out Lauren at F5. Heidi has no loyalty to her and Jaime does. It's also possible that Heidi is not very good at making fire and they want her around at F4 thinking one of them can win immunity and another can beat her in fire.

> >--Other than sucking in the IC, I thought Carson looked great tonight. He was in control the entire time and seemed to know what was going on. If he makes it to the end I can't see him losing. He'll be able to present a strong case to the jury plus his jury management has been quite good.
> Will he? I don't disagree that Carson played a good game but it was so
> under the table that the jury may not see it as a good game. While I
> know you don't think Carolyn played a good game I think she did a much
> better job and if she makes it to the final three she's the likely
> winner. She had a much better relationship with everyone because she
> wasn't seen as a threat and yet she was involved in those same moves
> as Carson. Also she played an idol which shows that she had more game
> play than the jury may have thought.

My biggest problem with Carolyn is that I don't think she'll be able to sell her game to the jury. Same goes for Yam Yam. His big pitch is likely to be that he took out everyone who wrote his name down which I don't think is even true. Carson seems capable of selling his game and he appears to be the most likable of those left which could factor into some votes.

> >Next week is the finale. Who's going to get screwed over by fire? I have a bad feeling that Lauren will make F3. If she does, she'll be the zero vote player.
> Not sure why they had the tribe move locations at this point in the
> game. Are they hoping that by making them uncomfortable they will get
> more drama? It never seems to work that way and yet they keep trying.

Jeff talked about this in an interview a year or so ago. He thinks it makes the game harder but I think it takes away from strategic gameplay at the most important point of the game. It's stupid and I'm glad that the players ruined this twist. Hopefully we never see it again.

--
Brian

On Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 7:45:46 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:

> --Tonight's episode was pretty good.

From my perspective, the editors went too far in trying to convince the seven year olds in the audience that Yammy was going to betray
Carolyn and help send her to Ponderosa, and, as a result, ruined the episode. It was dead obvious that the votes were going to Jaime, and
the fact that the editors tried to keep their misdirection alive all the way to the vote irritated me.

> --I thought Carolyn was very sloppy tonight. Telling everyone about the birdcage "X" was a huge mistake. That's something you save for your F3 speech to the jury. That made the target on > --her back way bigger. If she makes it to the end she needs to remind the jury she managed to overcome a huge strategic error.

I wouldn't call it a "huge" mistake, but talking about the "bird cage X" was definitely information that she should not have shared with the others.

> --Was Jaime horrible in guiding Carolyn and Heidi during the RC?

Yes!
> --What was Jaime thinking pushing the breakup of Tika to Carolyn? Taking out Carson makes sense but don't the others see how tight Tika are? She should have pushed Heidi harder to take out Carson.

At the point, Jaime, Lauren, and Heidi didn't have the votes to take out Carson. I can't believe that I'm actually saying this, but Jaime was correct in concluding that one of the
Tika players would need to flip in order to make it happen. She found out later that Yammy was more than happy to backstab one of the people who had helped get him to
the end game, but it wasn't the person who Jaime thought was the most significant threat.
The other possible reason why Jaime did not appear to try to pull Heidi in with her and Lauren was that, shockingly at such a late stage of the game, the remaining members
of Ratu and Soka still appeared to distrust each other and were working at cross purposes.
> --Yam Yam really hurt his game tonight when he didn't have the balls to take out Carolyn. It would have been a huge move for his resume.

Taking out Carolyn at F6 was a terrible idea, as it would have given the remaining Soka and Ratu players a numerical advantage, and the opportunity
for all three of them to get to FTC. With Carolyn in the game, Tika is still in control. Fortunately, Carson was able to talk Yammy out of his misguided
(and selfish) belief that reducing Tika to just two players was going to be good for his game.

> --If he and Carolyn make F3 he's bound to be asked why he didn't take her out and he won't have a good answer.

You're probably right about that. But if he was a bit more intelligent, and a lot more articulate, he could respond to such a question by bringing up
the importance of loyalty, and the love that he had in his heart for his long time ally. He could say that the two of them making it all the way to the
end together was more than he had ever hoped for, and that he was content to leave the final decision in the hands of the jury. Such an approach
would go over very well with many members of the jury IMO.
> --What was Heidi thinking playing her HII? She clearly was with Tika on the vote and there was no indication for her to think Jaime had found Carolyn's old idol. This will come back to haunt > --her.

I agree with what Shawn said down thread: She knew that Tika could conceivably blindside her with all three of their votes, and had to protect herself. However, the problem
for her now is that exactly the same thing could happen at F5 unless she wins immunity.
> --Other than sucking in the IC, I thought Carson looked great tonight. He was in control the entire time and seemed to know what was going on. If he makes it to the end I can't see him losing. He'll be able to present a strong case to the jury plus his jury management has been quite good.

I totally agree. Carson has played the best game since the merge. In E11, Danny even said that, if he could clone a version of himself to sit on the jury, the clone would
probably vote for Carson instead of him. :-)

> --Loved her exit. Very likable person. I'm glad she enjoyed her experience.

I, OTOH, couldn't stand her. Her never-ending stream of new age platitudes delivered with a psychotic looking smile never failed to irritate me. Some of the
guys on "Sucks" were saying that the Tika 3 made a mistake by taking out the most obvious "goat" left in the game. However, her departure couldn't come too
soon for me.
> -- Next week is the finale. Who's going to get screwed over by fire? I have a bad feeling that Lauren will make F3. If she does, she'll be the zero vote player.

I actually kind of like Lauren. She is a determined challenge player, and, just as long as there are no puzzles at F5 or F4, she has the potential to win her
way into F3, and send Carson to the jury. I also think that she would get more votes than Heidi if they both end up at FTC. But, bottom line...there seems
little doubt that a Tika member will win S44.

Full disclosure prior to the finale:
I have been rooting for Carson since before the merge, and want to see him win. However, I am mindful of the numerous examples of previous seasons'
best players not making it to the F3, so I am prepared for that possibility. However, much to my surprise, I have warmed greatly to Carolyn since the merge.
At the beginning of the season, I was irritated by all the speculation that the Survivor editors were deliberately revealing to the viewing audience that she was
going to end up as the winner. For that reason, I was hoping that she would be voted out early so that this distraction would no longer be something that
was on my mind. However, after the merge, the amount of face time, and the number of confessionals, that she received declined noticeably. In fact, there
were some episodes in which she was practically invisible. During this time, I came to appreciate her quirky likability, and now view her as perhaps having the
most nuanced character of any of this season's players. My expectations of her based on the early season edit have turned out to be totally wrong.. It will be
hard for her to get to the F3 as she is not going to win any challenges, and the other players (with the exception of Carson) are on the record as wanting to get
her out ASAP. However, I will also be rooting for her, and I hope she does well.

On Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 2:16:19 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:

>Same goes for Yam Yam. His big pitch is likely to be that he took out everyone who wrote his name down which I don't think is even true.

Ha! It's not true, it's just Yamian blather. He probably feels that if he says it often enough in his babyish voice, people will eventually start to
believe his twisted memory of past events. For the record, the following players cast votes for Yam:
-Kane
-Brandon
-Josh
-Matt
-Lauren
Yammy cast votes for Kane, Josh, and Matt at the tribal councils that resulted in their dismissal. He did not vote for Brandon, and Lauren is still in the f---ing game.

>Carson seems capable of selling his game.

Oh yeah! You can bet that Carson rehearsed his jury speech for hours and hours in between sessions at the gym and the construction of 3D models of famous
Survivor puzzles.

> Jeff talked about this in an interview a year or so ago. He thinks it makes the game harder but I think it takes away from strategic gameplay at the most important point of the game. It's
> stupid and I'm glad that the players ruined this twist.

I have to give this season's players a lot of credit for remembering that Probst likes to do this at F5, and coming to the TC prepared.

On Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 5:40:07 PM UTC-6, zeppo wrote:
> On Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 2:16:19 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> >Same goes for Yam Yam. His big pitch is likely to be that he took out everyone who wrote his name down which I don't think is even true.
> Ha! It's not true, it's just Yamian blather. He probably feels that if he says it often enough in his babyish voice, people will eventually start to
> believe his twisted memory of past events. For the record, the following players cast votes for Yam:
> -Kane
> -Brandon
> -Josh
> -Matt
> -Lauren
> Yammy cast votes for Kane, Josh, and Matt at the tribal councils that resulted in their dismissal. He did not vote for Brandon, and Lauren is still in the f---ing game.

Other than an IC win there's not much Yam Yam has to offer the jury. It might be his ticket to F3 over Carolyn.

> >Carson seems capable of selling his game.
>
> Oh yeah! You can bet that Carson rehearsed his jury speech for hours and hours in between sessions at the gym and the construction of 3D models of famous
> Survivor puzzles.

There's no question Carson came prepared. If I was a jury member I would give him huge points for that.

> > Jeff talked about this in an interview a year or so ago. He thinks it makes the game harder but I think it takes away from strategic gameplay at the most important point of the game. It's
> > stupid and I'm glad that the players ruined this twist.
> I have to give this season's players a lot of credit for remembering that Probst likes to do this at F5, and coming to the TC prepared.

Someone needs to tell Jeff that having them build another shelter at F5 is frickin' crazy. The last three days are jam packed as it is. The focus should be solely on the game.

--
Brian

On Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 4:56:54 PM UTC-6, zeppo wrote:
> On Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 7:45:46 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > --Tonight's episode was pretty good.
>
> From my perspective, the editors went too far in trying to convince the seven year olds in the audience that Yammy was going to betray
> Carolyn and help send her to Ponderosa, and, as a result, ruined the episode. It was dead obvious that the votes were going to Jaime, and
> the fact that the editors tried to keep their misdirection alive all the way to the vote irritated me.
>
> > --I thought Carolyn was very sloppy tonight. Telling everyone about the birdcage "X" was a huge mistake. That's something you save for your F3 speech to the jury. That made the target on > --her back way bigger. If she makes it to the end she needs to remind the jury she managed to overcome a huge strategic error.
>
> I wouldn't call it a "huge" mistake, but talking about the "bird cage X" was definitely information that she should not have shared with the others.

It definitely drew more attention to her and might have helped Carson out.

> > --What was Jaime thinking pushing the breakup of Tika to Carolyn? Taking out Carson makes sense but don't the others see how tight Tika are? She should have pushed Heidi harder to take out Carson.
> At the point, Jaime, Lauren, and Heidi didn't have the votes to take out Carson. I can't believe that I'm actually saying this, but Jaime was correct in concluding that one of the
> Tika players would need to flip in order to make it happen. She found out later that Yammy was more than happy to backstab one of the people who had helped get him to
> the end game, but it wasn't the person who Jaime thought was the most significant threat.
> The other possible reason why Jaime did not appear to try to pull Heidi in with her and Lauren was that, shockingly at such a late stage of the game, the remaining members
> of Ratu and Soka still appeared to distrust each other and were working at cross purposes.

They had enough votes to force a tie. In a revote with Jaime and Carson being safe I wonder if Yam Yam would have taken the opportunity to take out Carolyn? I think he would have to avoid rocks. But would Lauren and Heidi have been able to get on the same page and convince him that's what they should do?

You're probably right that the non-Tika people don't trust each other. Tribe bonds were very strong this season for some reason.

> > --Yam Yam really hurt his game tonight when he didn't have the balls to take out Carolyn. It would have been a huge move for his resume.
> Taking out Carolyn at F6 was a terrible idea, as it would have given the remaining Soka and Ratu players a numerical advantage, and the opportunity
> for all three of them to get to FTC. With Carolyn in the game, Tika is still in control. Fortunately, Carson was able to talk Yammy out of his misguided
> (and selfish) belief that reducing Tika to just two players was going to be good for his game.

I doubt Carson wants an all Tika F3. He seems more loyal to Carolyn which is bad news for Yam Yam. Yam Yam needs to make a big move and he had a great chance to do so at F6.

> > --If he and Carolyn make F3 he's bound to be asked why he didn't take her out and he won't have a good answer.
>
> You're probably right about that. But if he was a bit more intelligent, and a lot more articulate, he could respond to such a question by bringing up
> the importance of loyalty, and the love that he had in his heart for his long time ally. He could say that the two of them making it all the way to the
> end together was more than he had ever hoped for, and that he was content to leave the final decision in the hands of the jury. Such an approach
> would go over very well with many members of the jury IMO.

Or the jury could say why not make the decision for us based on bold moves you've made in the game.

> > --Loved her exit. Very likable person. I'm glad she enjoyed her experience.
>
> I, OTOH, couldn't stand her. Her never-ending stream of new age platitudes delivered with a psychotic looking smile never failed to irritate me. Some of the
> guys on "Sucks" were saying that the Tika 3 made a mistake by taking out the most obvious "goat" left in the game. However, her departure couldn't come too
> soon for me.

A number of them were into that crap this season. Jaime's biggest strength was her likeability as far as I'm concerned. I also don't think she was as clueless as the edit suggested. Editors had fun at her expense mostly b/c of the fake idol she "found."

> > -- Next week is the finale. Who's going to get screwed over by fire? I have a bad feeling that Lauren will make F3. If she does, she'll be the zero vote player.
>
> I actually kind of like Lauren. She is a determined challenge player, and, just as long as there are no puzzles at F5 or F4, she has the potential to win her
> way into F3, and send Carson to the jury. I also think that she would get more votes than Heidi if they both end up at FTC. But, bottom line...there seems
> little doubt that a Tika member will win S44.

The odds of no puzzles in the last two ICs is probably zero. For her sake, I hope her fire making skills are good.

> Full disclosure prior to the finale:
> I have been rooting for Carson since before the merge, and want to see him win. However, I am mindful of the numerous examples of previous seasons'
> best players not making it to the F3, so I am prepared for that possibility. However, much to my surprise, I have warmed greatly to Carolyn since the merge.
> At the beginning of the season, I was irritated by all the speculation that the Survivor editors were deliberately revealing to the viewing audience that she was
> going to end up as the winner. For that reason, I was hoping that she would be voted out early so that this distraction would no longer be something that
> was on my mind. However, after the merge, the amount of face time, and the number of confessionals, that she received declined noticeably. In fact, there
> were some episodes in which she was practically invisible. During this time, I came to appreciate her quirky likability, and now view her as perhaps having the
> most nuanced character of any of this season's players. My expectations of her based on the early season edit have turned out to be totally wrong. It will be
> hard for her to get to the F3 as she is not going to win any challenges, and the other players (with the exception of Carson) are on the record as wanting to get
> her out ASAP. However, I will also be rooting for her, and I hope she does well.

Carolyn's pretty polarizing. People either love her or they hate her. I didn't know what to make of her at first. At times she was too weird for me. I really didn't like how she hated Sarah so much. I'll give her credit for being an above average player but I won't be rooting for her. My faves didn't even make the merge. :--( If I have to root for someone it'll be Carson. The Survivor community loves him which will be good for the show.

__
Brian

On Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 7:14:38 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:

> They had enough votes to force a tie. In a revote with Jaime and Carson being safe I wonder if Yam Yam would have taken the opportunity to take out Carolyn?

If I am remembering the most recent version of the Survivor tiebreaker rules correctly, Carolyn could not be voted for in the scenario that we are discussing.
In the event of a 3-3 tie with the votes going to Carson and Jaime, the revote would allow only Lauren, Heidi, Yam, and Carolyn to vote, and require them to
vote for either Carson or Jaime. If this procedure were to result in a second tie, things would become very complicated and dangerous for the four players who
had cast votes.
> I doubt Carson wants an all Tika F3.

I believe that he feels that he can beat any combination of players left in the game at FTC, and therefore would have no problem with remaining
loyal to Yammy and Carolyn.

>Yam Yam needs to make a big move and he had a great chance to do so at F6..

He would have been putting both his and Carson's games at serious risk by doing anything that would have given the numerical majority
back to the Soka/Ratu women. By following Carson's advice re. the F6 vote, he now has the opportunity to make his "big move" at F5 with
a reduced likelihood of it "blowing up in his face". He could go to Lauren and Heidi, both of whom should be desperate for a "lifeline", and
make his pitch that the three of them vote together for either Carson or Carolyn. Lauren would be onside for sure, but Heidi may have her
own ideas concerning the best way to get herself to F3.

> The odds of no puzzles in the last two ICs is probably zero.

You're probably right. If the pattern in recent seasons is followed, the F5 challenge will involve some sort of puzzle, and the F4 challenge will require
a combination of balance, coordination, and concentration.
Also, it is more than likely that the members of the F5 will have the opportunity to gain an advantage in the immunity challenge by solving a word
puzzle, and then using the words to locate the hidden advantage somewhere on their beach. Carson should be able to make short work of the
puzzle, but, as we saw in the S43 finale, that does not necessarily mean that he will find the advantage.

> My faves didn't even make the merge. :--(

I thought you were rooting for Frannie!

On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 6:50:01 PM UTC-6, zeppo wrote:
> On Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 7:14:38 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > They had enough votes to force a tie. In a revote with Jaime and Carson being safe I wonder if Yam Yam would have taken the opportunity to take out Carolyn?
> If I am remembering the most recent version of the Survivor tiebreaker rules correctly, Carolyn could not be voted for in the scenario that we are discussing.
> In the event of a 3-3 tie with the votes going to Carson and Jaime, the revote would allow only Lauren, Heidi, Yam, and Carolyn to vote, and require them to
> vote for either Carson or Jaime. If this procedure were to result in a second tie, things would become very complicated and dangerous for the four players who
> had cast votes.

I was talking about after a second tie vote. Why couldn't Yam Yam sell the other two on taking Carolyn out? He needs her and Carson gone in order to win.

> > I doubt Carson wants an all Tika F3.
> I believe that he feels that he can beat any combination of players left in the game at FTC, and therefore would have no problem with remaining
> loyal to Yammy and Carolyn.

An extra vote and someone on the jury to advocate for him wouldn't hurt. If he wins immunity at F4 he needs to put Carolyn up against Lauren/Heidi. He can tell Carolyn she's great at fire and that past juries have looked kindly upon those who win that challenge. If she loses she'll still vote for him and make sure the jury doesn't do something stupid like vote for Lauren to win the game.

> >Yam Yam needs to make a big move and he had a great chance to do so at F6.
> He would have been putting both his and Carson's games at serious risk by doing anything that would have given the numerical majority
> back to the Soka/Ratu women. By following Carson's advice re. the F6 vote, he now has the opportunity to make his "big move" at F5 with
> a reduced likelihood of it "blowing up in his face". He could go to Lauren and Heidi, both of whom should be desperate for a "lifeline", and
> make his pitch that the three of them vote together for either Carson or Carolyn. Lauren would be onside for sure, but Heidi may have her
> own ideas concerning the best way to get herself to F3.

The odds would still be with Yam Yam and Carson. You need to take risks in order to win.

> > The odds of no puzzles in the last two ICs is probably zero.
> You're probably right. If the pattern in recent seasons is followed, the F5 challenge will involve some sort of puzzle, and the F4 challenge will require
> a combination of balance, coordination, and concentration.
> Also, it is more than likely that the members of the F5 will have the opportunity to gain an advantage in the immunity challenge by solving a word
> puzzle, and then using the words to locate the hidden advantage somewhere on their beach. Carson should be able to make short work of the
> puzzle, but, as we saw in the S43 finale, that does not necessarily mean that he will find the advantage.

I forgot about the puzzle. I can see Heidi beating out Carson to get the advantage.

> > My faves didn't even make the merge. :--(
> I thought you were rooting for Frannie!

I was after my true faves Sarah and Maddy were screwed over. If Frannie's head had been fully in the game I think she might still be around. I'd like to see her play again without Matt. I'd love to see Maddy on BB.

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Brian