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aus+uk / aus.aviation / Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

SubjectAuthor
* Russian airlines now pariahs ?Phil Allison
`* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
 `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Phil Allison
  +* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |`* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Daryl
  | `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |  `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Magani
  |   `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |    `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0
  |     +* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Magani
  |     |`* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0
  |     | `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |  +* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0
  |     |  |`- Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |  `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?David Lesher
  |     |   `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |    `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Magani
  |     |     +* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Phil Allison
  |     |     |`- Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |     `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |      `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0
  |     |       +- Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |       +* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Daryl
  |     |       |+- Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Phil Allison
  |     |       |`* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |       | `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0
  |     |       |  `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |       |   `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0
  |     |       |    `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |       |     `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0
  |     |       |      `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |       |       `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0
  |     |       |        `- Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |       `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Phil Allison
  |     |        `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |         `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Phil Allison
  |     |          `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |           `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Phil Allison
  |     |            `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |             `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Phil Allison
  |     |              `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |               `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Phil Allison
  |     |                `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |                 `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     |                  `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Magani
  |     |                   `- Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |     `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |      `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Daryl
  |       `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |        `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0
  |         `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  |          `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0
  |           `- Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?Rod Speed
  `* Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0
   `- Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?keithr0

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Russian airlines now pariahs ?

<32f7f899-0c61-41ea-b8f5-3cf87f82e3b7n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
From: palliso...@gmail.com (Phil Allison)
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 by: Phil Allison - Thu, 3 Mar 2022 12:02 UTC

Hi,

this 11 minute "Mentour Pilot " vid is worth watching:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o

Seems international sanctions are about to hit the Russian airline business VERY hard. Could end up grounding almost the whole fleet.

...... Phil

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

<op.1igti0hibyq249@pvr2.lan>

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From: rod.spee...@gmail.com (Rod Speed)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2022 04:29:14 +1100
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 by: Rod Speed - Thu, 3 Mar 2022 17:29 UTC

Phil Allison <pallison49@gmail.com> wrote

> this 11 minute "Mentour Pilot " vid is worth watching:

> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o

> Seems international sanctions are about tohit the Russian airline
> business VERY hard.

Yes.

> Could end up grounding almost the whole fleet.

Nope, they will continue to fly within russia and
its closely associated countrys who refused to
vote against russia in the UN. It is less clear what
those who chose to abstain in that vote will do
but not too many of those are adjacent so there
would obviously be a problem with getting to
many of them.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

<32e3967c-123e-4139-9144-ac27adca19ecn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
From: palliso...@gmail.com (Phil Allison)
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 by: Phil Allison - Thu, 3 Mar 2022 20:46 UTC

Rod Speed wrote:
==============
>
> > this 11 minute "Mentour Pilot " vid is worth watching:
>
> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o
> > Seems international sanctions are about tohit the Russian airline
> > business VERY hard.
>
> Yes.
>
> > Could end up grounding almost the whole fleet.
>
> Nope, they will continue to fly within russia and
> its closely associated countrys

** Not according what was in the vid.

Leased ( ie most) planes will have to be surrendered.
Spare parts are to be denied for fully owned ones.
Even the method of making payments outside Russia is closed.

FR24 shows plenty of flights over Russia - but damn few Russian registered planes.

....... Phil

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

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From: rod.spee...@gmail.com (Rod Speed)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2022 09:00:20 +1100
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 by: Rod Speed - Thu, 3 Mar 2022 22:00 UTC

Phil Allison <pallison49@gmail.com> wrote
> Rod Speed wrote

>>> this 11 minute "Mentour Pilot " vid is worth watching:

>> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o

>>> Seems international sanctions are about to
>>> hit the Russian airline business VERY hard.

>> Yes.

>>> Could end up grounding almost the whole fleet.

>> Nope, they will continue to fly within russiaand its closely
>> associated countrys

> Not according what was in the vid.

Just because someone claims something...

> Leased ( ie most) planes will have to be surrendered.

You don't know that most of theirs are leased.

Or that they will choose to surrender the leased ones either.

> Spare parts are to be denied for fully owned ones.

Pity about the russian built aircraft.

> Even the method of making payments outside Russia is closed.

But that isn't needed with the russian built aircraft.

> FR24 shows plenty of flights over Russia -but damn few Russian
> registered planes.

There are in fact heaps of those. Presumably they
don't have what FR24 uses to track them fitted.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

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From: dwalf...@westpine.com.au (Daryl)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 09:33:14 +1100
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 by: Daryl - Thu, 3 Mar 2022 22:33 UTC

On 4/3/2022 9:00 am, Rod Speed wrote:
> Phil Allison <pallison49@gmail.com> wrote
>>  Rod Speed wrote
>
>>>> this 11 minute "Mentour Pilot " vid is worth watching:
>
>>> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o
>
>>>> Seems international sanctions are about to
>>>> hit the Russian airline  business VERY hard.
>
>>> Yes.
>
>>>> Could end up grounding almost the whole fleet.
>
>>> Nope, they will continue to fly within russiaand  its closely
>>> associated countrys
>
>> Not according what was in the vid.
>
> Just because someone claims something...

Backed up with data from the leasing companies so every reason to
believe that the info is reasonably accurate.
>
>> Leased ( ie most) planes will have to be surrendered.
>
> You don't know that most of theirs are leased.

Approx 50%.
>
> Or that they will choose to surrender the leased ones either.

Main reason they are likely to comply is that after the conflict is over
they will want to continue operating leased aircraft, if they fail to
comply no one is likely to do business with them in the future.
>
>> Spare parts are to be denied for fully owned ones.
>
> Pity about the russian built aircraft.

100% built in Russia is few and far between.
Even some of those source parts internationally such as "hot" sections
of engines or even full engines.
Since large aircraft engines are pretty reliable it will be quite a
while before they run out of parts.

--
Daryl

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

<op.1ig870hzbyq249@pvr2.lan>

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From: rod.spee...@gmail.com (Rod Speed)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2022 10:08:14 +1100
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 by: Rod Speed - Thu, 3 Mar 2022 23:08 UTC

Daryl <dwalford@westpine.com.au> wrote
> Rod Speed wrote
>> Phil Allison <pallison49@gmail.com> wrote
>>> Rod Speed wrote

>>>>> this 11 minute "Mentour Pilot " vid is worth watching:

>>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o

>>>>> Seems international sanctions are about to
>>>>> hit the Russian airline business VERY hard.

>>>> Yes.

>>>>> Could end up grounding almost the whole fleet.

>>>> Nope, they will continue to fly within russia and its closely
>>>> associated countrys

>>> Not according what was in the vid.

>> Just because someone claims something...

> Backed up with data from the leasing companies

But they have no idea if Putin will allowed leased
aircraft to be returned to the leasing companys
or whether leasing companys in India and China
and others who don't agree with the sanctions
will choose to replace the currently leased aircraft.

And given that russian aircraft can no longer fly to
so many places, it may even be that say the half of
the aeroflot fleet that isn't leased will be all they
need to continue to fly to non sanctioning countrys
like India and China and in russia itself.

> so every reason to believe that the info is reasonably accurate.

But not his prediction, see above.

>>> Leased ( ie most) planes will have to be surrendered.

>> You don't know that most of theirs are leased.

> Approx 50%.

Which may well be all they need given that they
can no longer fly to so many high volume places.

>> Or that they will choose to surrender the leased ones either.

> Main reason they are likely to comply is that after the conflict is over
> they will want to continue operating leased aircraft, if they fail to
> comply no one is likely to do business with them in the future.

That's not relevant if Putin doesn't allow them to be returned.

And leasing companys won't refuse to ever again lease
to russian airlines if Putin does do that, you watch.

>>> Spare parts are to be denied for fully owned ones.

>> Pity about the russian built aircraft.

> 100% built in Russia is few and far between.

Thats bullshit.

> Even some of those source parts internationallysuch as "hot" sections of
> engines

But given that their military aircraft won't be done like
that, they can obviously change the way they do that.

> or even full engines.

That one that he claims is 2 years away from certification
may well be certified immediately if the lack of engines
and spares turns out to be a problem for russia.

> Since large aircraft engines are pretty reliable it willbe quite a while
> before they run out of parts.

Particularly as they won't be flying to so many countrys any time soon.

It will be interesting to see what happens, bet they just fly via
china and india instead and it is no big deal at all for russia.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

<203a217b-1ce9-40d0-844b-51822d40571an@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
From: cdsr...@gmail.com (Magani)
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 by: Magani - Thu, 3 Mar 2022 23:39 UTC

On Friday, 4 March 2022 at 9:08:19 am UTC+10, Rod Speed wrote:
> Daryl <dwal...@westpine.com.au> wrote
> > Rod Speed wrote
> >> Phil Allison <palli...@gmail.com> wrote
> >>> Rod Speed wrote
>
> >>>>> this 11 minute "Mentour Pilot " vid is worth watching:
>
> >>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o
>
> >>>>> Seems international sanctions are about to
> >>>>> hit the Russian airline business VERY hard.
>
> >>>> Yes.
>
> >>>>> Could end up grounding almost the whole fleet.
> >>>> Nope, they will continue to fly within russia and its closely
> >>>> associated countrys
>
> >>> Not according what was in the vid.
>
> >> Just because someone claims something...
>
> > Backed up with data from the leasing companies
> But they have no idea if Putin will allowed leased
> aircraft to be returned to the leasing companys
> or whether leasing companys in India and China
> and others who don't agree with the sanctions
> will choose to replace the currently leased aircraft.
>
> And given that russian aircraft can no longer fly to
> so many places, it may even be that say the half of
> the aeroflot fleet that isn't leased will be all they
> need to continue to fly to non sanctioning countrys
> like India and China and in russia itself.
> > so every reason to believe that the info is reasonably accurate.
> But not his prediction, see above.
> >>> Leased ( ie most) planes will have to be surrendered.
>
> >> You don't know that most of theirs are leased.
>
> > Approx 50%.
> Which may well be all they need given that they
> can no longer fly to so many high volume places.
> >> Or that they will choose to surrender the leased ones either.
>
> > Main reason they are likely to comply is that after the conflict is over
> > they will want to continue operating leased aircraft, if they fail to
> > comply no one is likely to do business with them in the future.
> That's not relevant if Putin doesn't allow them to be returned.
>
> And leasing companys won't refuse to ever again lease
> to russian airlines if Putin does do that, you watch.
> >>> Spare parts are to be denied for fully owned ones.
>
> >> Pity about the russian built aircraft.
>
> > 100% built in Russia is few and far between.
> Thats bullshit.
>
> > Even some of those source parts internationallysuch as "hot" sections of
> > engines
>
> But given that their military aircraft won't be done like
> that, they can obviously change the way they do that.
>
> > or even full engines.
>
> That one that he claims is 2 years away from certification
> may well be certified immediately if the lack of engines
> and spares turns out to be a problem for russia.
>
> > Since large aircraft engines are pretty reliable it willbe quite a while
> > before they run out of parts.
> Particularly as they won't be flying to so many countrys any time soon.
>
> It will be interesting to see what happens, bet they just fly via
> china and india instead and it is no big deal at all for russia.

Leased or not, Aeroflot's fleet (and, yes, I know there are other internal carriers) is comprised mainly of Airbus and Boeing units.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroflot_fleet

I wouldn't hold out much hope of them getting spares, even if they hold onto them. Compare with IranAir's situation last century.

Cheers,
Magani

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

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From: rod.spee...@gmail.com (Rod Speed)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2022 10:56:34 +1100
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 by: Rod Speed - Thu, 3 Mar 2022 23:56 UTC

Magani <cdsross@gmail.com> wrote
> Rod Speed wrote
>> Daryl <dwal...@westpine.com.au> wrote
>> > Rod Speed wrote
>> >> Phil Allison <palli...@gmail.com> wrote
>> >>> Rod Speed wrote
>>
>> >>>>> this 11 minute "Mentour Pilot " vid is worth watching:
>>
>> >>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o
>>
>> >>>>> Seems international sanctions are about to
>> >>>>> hit the Russian airline business VERY hard.
>>
>> >>>> Yes.
>>
>> >>>>> Could end up grounding almost the whole fleet.
>> >>>> Nope, they will continue to fly within russia and its closely
>> >>>> associated countrys
>>
>> >>> Not according what was in the vid.
>>
>> >> Just because someone claims something...
>>
>> > Backed up with data from the leasing companies
>> But they have no idea if Putin will allowed leased
>> aircraft to be returned to the leasing companys
>> or whether leasing companys in India and China
>> and others who don't agree with the sanctions
>> will choose to replace the currently leased aircraft.
>>
>> And given that russian aircraft can no longer fly to
>> so many places, it may even be that say the half of
>> the aeroflot fleet that isn't leased will be all they
>> need to continue to fly to non sanctioning countrys
>> like India and China and in russia itself.
>> > so every reason to believe that the info is reasonably accurate.
>> But not his prediction, see above.
>> >>> Leased ( ie most) planes will have to be surrendered.
>>
>> >> You don't know that most of theirs are leased.
>>
>> > Approx 50%.
>> Which may well be all they need given that they
>> can no longer fly to so many high volume places.
>> >> Or that they will choose to surrender the leased ones either.
>>
>> > Main reason they are likely to comply is that after the conflict is
>> over
>> > they will want to continue operating leased aircraft, if they fail to
>> > comply no one is likely to do business with them in the future.
>> That's not relevant if Putin doesn't allow them to be returned.
>>
>> And leasing companys won't refuse to ever again lease
>> to russian airlines if Putin does do that, you watch.
>> >>> Spare parts are to be denied for fully owned ones.
>>
>> >> Pity about the russian built aircraft.
>>
>> > 100% built in Russia is few and far between.
>> Thats bullshit.
>>
>> > Even some of those source parts internationallysuch as "hot" sections
>> of
>> > engines
>>
>> But given that their military aircraft won't be done like
>> that, they can obviously change the way they do that.
>>
>> > or even full engines.
>>
>> That one that he claims is 2 years away from certification
>> may well be certified immediately if the lack of engines
>> and spares turns out to be a problem for russia.
>>
>> > Since large aircraft engines are pretty reliable it willbe quite a
>> while
>> > before they run out of parts.
>> Particularly as they won't be flying to so many countrys any time soon.
>>
>> It will be interesting to see what happens, bet they just fly via
>> china and india instead and it is no big deal at all for russia.
>
> Leased or not, Aeroflot's fleet (and, yes, I know there are other
> internal carriers) is comprised mainly of Airbus and Boeing units.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroflot_fleet

But for everything to be grounded as Filthy claimed, the others matter.

> I wouldn't hold out much hope of themgetting spares, even if they hold
> onto them.

Corse they can from India and China.

> Compare with IranAir's situation last century.

Nothing like it. They didn't have India and China.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

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From: use...@account.invalid (keithr0)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 10:15:11 +1000
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 by: keithr0 - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 00:15 UTC

On 4/03/2022 6:46 am, Phil Allison wrote:
> Rod Speed wrote:
> ==============
>>
>>> this 11 minute "Mentour Pilot " vid is worth watching:
>>
>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o
>>> Seems international sanctions are about tohit the Russian airline
>>> business VERY hard.
>>
>> Yes.
>>
>>> Could end up grounding almost the whole fleet.
>>
>> Nope, they will continue to fly within russia and
>> its closely associated countrys
>
> ** Not according what was in the vid.
>
> Leased ( ie most) planes will have to be surrendered.
> Spare parts are to be denied for fully owned ones.
> Even the method of making payments outside Russia is closed.
>
> FR24 shows plenty of flights over Russia - but damn few Russian registered planes.

Russia has reciprocated the bans that other countries have put on its
aircraft entering their airspace. AFAIK Australia has not banned Russian
aircraft so QANTAS can keep flying over Russia, I don't think that the
QANTAS direct to London flights would be possible if they were banned.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

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Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
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 by: keithr0 - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 00:20 UTC

On 4/03/2022 9:56 am, Rod Speed wrote:

>> I wouldn't hold out much hope of themgetting spares, even if they hold
>> onto them.
>
> Corse they can from India and China.

And if those countries do, the US can ban spare going to their aircraft.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

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Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
From: cdsr...@gmail.com (Magani)
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 by: Magani - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 01:34 UTC

On Friday, 4 March 2022 at 10:20:20 am UTC+10, keithr0 wrote:
> Russia has reciprocated the bans that other countries have put on its
> aircraft entering their airspace. AFAIK Australia has not banned Russian
> aircraft so QANTAS can keep flying over Russia, I don't think that the
> QANTAS direct to London flights would be possible if they were banned.

Keith, according to FR24 (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/qf1#2afe9d0f) they're flying via o/head Kuwait, then abeam Baghdad, Turkey, southern end of the Black Sea, then Rumania via o/head Bucharest, Hungary, etc to LHR. So, safely away from nasty people.

Haven't bothered to seek out NOTAMs, but I'd suggest they're around. Still lots of non-Russian aircraft flying over Russia but none I can see over Ukraine.
Currently: Cathay, Turkish, Korean, Lufhansa, Air India, lots of Chinese (not surprisingly) just in a quick scan.

Cheers,
Magani

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 by: keithr0 - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 01:57 UTC

On 4/03/2022 10:15 am, keithr0 wrote:
> On 4/03/2022 6:46 am, Phil Allison wrote:
>>   Rod Speed wrote:
>> ==============
>>>
>>>> this 11 minute "Mentour Pilot " vid is worth watching:
>>>
>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o
>>>> Seems international sanctions are about tohit the Russian airline
>>>> business VERY hard.
>>>
>>> Yes.
>>>
>>>> Could end up grounding almost the whole fleet.
>>>
>>> Nope, they will continue to fly within russia and
>>> its closely associated countrys
>>
>> ** Not according what was in the vid.
>>
>> Leased ( ie most) planes will have to be surrendered.
>> Spare parts are to be denied for fully owned ones.
>> Even the method of making payments outside Russia is closed.
>>
>> FR24 shows plenty of flights over Russia - but damn few Russian
>> registered planes.
>
> Russia has reciprocated the bans that other countries have put on its
> aircraft entering their airspace. AFAIK Australia has not banned Russian
> aircraft so QANTAS can keep flying over Russia, I don't think that the
> QANTAS direct to London flights would be possible if they were banned.

Correction: I believe that QANTAS have re-routed the Darwin to London
flight to avoid Russia.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

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From: rod.spee...@gmail.com (Rod Speed)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2022 13:05:54 +1100
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 by: Rod Speed - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 02:05 UTC

keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
> Rod Speed wrote

>>> I wouldn't hold out much hope of them getting spares, even if they
>>> hold onto them.

>> Corse they can from India and China.

> And if those countries do, the US can ban spare going to their aircraft.

But no way to police that.

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Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
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 by: Daryl - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 03:05 UTC

On 4/3/2022 1:05 pm, Rod Speed wrote:
> keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
>> Rod Speed wrote
>
>>>> I wouldn't hold out much hope of them getting spares, even if they
>>>> hold onto them.
>
>>>  Corse they can from India and China.
>
>> And if those countries do, the US can ban spare going to their aircraft.
>
> But no way to police that.

Not easy at all but someone would notice if all of a sudden India or
China started ordering larger than normal quantities of spares.
Whether or not anyone would do anything about it remains to be seen.
China's position is clear but India is stuck between a rock and a hard
place with allegiances to both Russia and the West.
With a bit of luck some unhappy Russian will put a bullet in Putin's
head and the whole thing will be over.

--
Daryl

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From: rod.spee...@gmail.com (Rod Speed)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2022 14:25:50 +1100
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 by: Rod Speed - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 03:25 UTC

Daryl <dwalford@westpine.com.au> wrote
> Rod Speed wrote
>> keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
>>> Rod Speed wrote

>>>>> I wouldn't hold out much hope of them getting spares, even if they
>>>>> hold onto them.

>>>> Corse they can from India and China.

>>> And if those countries do, the US can ban spare going to their
>>> aircraft.

>> But no way to police that.

> Not easy at all

Impossible actually if they get the maintenance done
in India or China instead of currently in Germany.

> but someone would notice if all of a sudden India or Chinastarted
> ordering larger than normal quantities of spares.

Bullshit. In spades now that the international airline
system as a whole is picking up dramatically now
that the worst of the covid lockdowns have ended
and with the olympics in China this year.

> Whether or not anyone would do anything about it remains to be seen.

No chance, particular with so many aircraft coming out of mothballs now.

> China's position is clear but India is stuck between a rock and a hard
> place with allegiances to both Russia and the West.

Not as far as sanctions are concerned. They are free to do what
they like about those and have a history of being non aligned.

> With a bit of luck some unhappy Russian will put a bullet in Putin's
> head and the whole thing will be over.

No chance. He has all his enemys killed and even the protesters are
arrested.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

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From: use...@account.invalid (keithr0)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 13:48:11 +1000
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 by: keithr0 - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 03:48 UTC

On 4/03/2022 1:25 pm, Rod Speed wrote:
> Daryl <dwalford@westpine.com.au> wrote
>> Rod Speed wrote
>>> keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
>>>> Rod Speed wrote
>
>>>>>> I wouldn't hold out much hope of them getting spares, even if they
>>>>>> hold onto them.
>
>>>>>  Corse they can from India and China.
>
>>>> And if those countries do, the US can ban spare going to their
>>>> aircraft.
>
>>>  But no way to police that.
>
>> Not easy at all
>
> Impossible actually if they get the maintenance done
> in India or China instead of currently in Germany.

And how many heavy maintenance facilities exist in those countries?

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

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From: use...@account.invalid (keithr0)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 13:51:49 +1000
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 by: keithr0 - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 03:51 UTC

On 4/03/2022 11:34 am, Magani wrote:
> On Friday, 4 March 2022 at 10:20:20 am UTC+10, keithr0 wrote:
>> Russia has reciprocated the bans that other countries have put on its
>> aircraft entering their airspace. AFAIK Australia has not banned Russian
>> aircraft so QANTAS can keep flying over Russia, I don't think that the
>> QANTAS direct to London flights would be possible if they were banned.
>
> Keith, according to FR24 (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/qf1#2afe9d0f) they're flying via o/head Kuwait, then abeam Baghdad, Turkey, southern end of the Black Sea, then Rumania via o/head Bucharest, Hungary, etc to LHR. So, safely away from nasty people.

The thing that I wondered was that the route is close to maximum range,
and presumably the great circle route goes over Russia. So how much of a
deviation can they make? I suppose that carrying a few less passengers
would help, but that cuts revenue.

> Haven't bothered to seek out NOTAMs, but I'd suggest they're around. Still lots of non-Russian aircraft flying over Russia but none I can see over Ukraine.
> Currently: Cathay, Turkish, Korean, Lufhansa, Air India, lots of Chinese (not surprisingly) just in a quick scan.
>
> Cheers,
> Magani
>

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

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From: rod.spee...@gmail.com (Rod Speed)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2022 15:12:04 +1100
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 by: Rod Speed - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 04:12 UTC

keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
> Rod Speed wrote
>> Daryl <dwalford@westpine.com.au> wrote
>>> Rod Speed wrote
>>>> keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
>>>>> Rod Speed wrote

>>>>>>> I wouldn't hold out much hope of them getting spares, even if they
>>>>>>> hold onto them.

>>>>>> Corse they can from India and China.

>>>>> And if those countries do, the US can ban spare going to their
>>>>> aircraft.

>>>> But no way to police that.

>>> Not easy at all

>> Impossible actually if they get the maintenance done
>> in India or China instead of currently in Germany.

> And how many heavy maintenance facilities exist in those countries?

They don't necessarily need much heavy maintenance
given that they can now fly to far fewer places.

And it is a tad unlikely that russia gets other than russia
to do the heavy maintenance on their military aircraft so
they can do that on their western aircraft too.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

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From: rod.spee...@gmail.com (Rod Speed)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2022 15:19:38 +1100
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 by: Rod Speed - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 04:19 UTC

keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
> Magani wrote
>> keithr0 wrote

>>> Russia has reciprocated the bans that other countries have put on its
>>> aircraft entering their airspace. AFAIK Australia has not banned
>>> Russian
>>> aircraft so QANTAS can keep flying over Russia, I don't think that the
>>> QANTAS direct to London flights would be possible if they were banned.
>> Keith, according to FR24
>> (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/qf1#2afe9d0f) they're
>> flying via o/head Kuwait, then abeam Baghdad, Turkey, southern end of
>> the Black Sea, then Rumania via o/head Bucharest, Hungary, etc to LHR.
>> So, safely away from nasty people.
>
> The thing that I wondered was that the route is close to maximum range,
> and presumably the great circle route goes over Russia. So how much of a
> deviation can they make? I suppose that carrying a few less passengers
> would help, but that cuts revenue.

They can obviously get real radical and scrap the non stop to London
while they can't overfly russia or the Ukraine. Or even continue to fly
it and have an unplanned stop for fuel if the winds etc are unsuitable.

>> Haven't bothered to seek out NOTAMs, but I'd suggest they're around.
>> Still lots of non-Russian aircraft flying over Russia but none I can
>> see over Ukraine.
>> Currently: Cathay, Turkish, Korean, Lufhansa, Air India, lots of
>> Chinese (not surprisingly) just in a quick scan.

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Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
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 by: keithr0 - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 05:18 UTC

On 4/03/2022 2:19 pm, Rod Speed wrote:
> keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
>> Magani wrote
>>> keithr0 wrote
>
>>>> Russia has reciprocated the bans that other countries have put on its
>>>> aircraft entering their airspace. AFAIK Australia has not banned
>>>> Russian
>>>> aircraft so QANTAS can keep flying over Russia, I don't think that the
>>>> QANTAS direct to London flights would be possible if they were banned.
>>>  Keith, according to FR24
>>> (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/qf1#2afe9d0f) they're
>>> flying via o/head Kuwait, then abeam Baghdad, Turkey, southern end of
>>> the Black Sea, then Rumania via o/head Bucharest, Hungary, etc to
>>> LHR.  So, safely away from nasty people.
>>
>> The thing that I wondered was that the route is close to maximum
>> range, and presumably the great circle route goes over Russia. So how
>> much of a deviation can they make? I suppose that carrying  a few less
>> passengers would help, but that cuts revenue.
>
> They can obviously get real radical and scrap the non stop to London
> while they can't overfly russia or the Ukraine. Or even continue to fly
> it and have an unplanned stop for fuel if the winds etc are unsuitable.

Been there done that, Dallas to Brisbane in a 747 at maximum range, we
had to stop in Noumea for a splash and dash when the winds weren't right.

>>> Haven't bothered to seek out NOTAMs, but I'd suggest they're around.
>>> Still lots of non-Russian aircraft flying over Russia but none I can
>>> see over Ukraine.
>>> Currently: Cathay, Turkish, Korean, Lufhansa, Air India, lots of
>>> Chinese (not surprisingly) just in a quick scan.

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 by: keithr0 - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 05:20 UTC

On 4/03/2022 2:12 pm, Rod Speed wrote:
> keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
>> Rod Speed wrote
>>> Daryl <dwalford@westpine.com.au> wrote
>>>> Rod Speed wrote
>>>>> keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
>>>>>> Rod Speed wrote
>
>>>>>>>> I wouldn't hold out much hope of them getting spares, even if
>>>>>>>> they hold onto them.
>
>>>>>>>  Corse they can from India and China.
>
>>>>>> And if those countries do, the US can ban spare going to their
>>>>>> aircraft.
>
>>>>>  But no way to police that.
>
>>>> Not easy at all
>
>>>  Impossible actually if they get the maintenance done
>>> in India or China instead of currently in Germany.
>
>> And how many heavy maintenance facilities exist in those countries?
>
> They don't necessarily need much heavy maintenance
> given that they can now fly to far fewer places.
>
> And it is a tad unlikely that russia gets other than russia
> to do the heavy maintenance on their military aircraft so
> they can do that on their western aircraft too.

depends on whether they have Boeing and AirBus qualified facilities. I
do rather doubt it.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

<op.1ihy14ipbyq249@pvr2.lan>

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From: rod.spee...@gmail.com (Rod Speed)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2022 19:26:18 +1100
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 by: Rod Speed - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 08:26 UTC

keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
> Rod Speed wrote
>> keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
>>> Magani wrote
>>>> keithr0 wrote

>>>>> Russia has reciprocated the bans that other countries have put on its
>>>>> aircraft entering their airspace. AFAIK Australia has not banned
>>>>> Russian
>>>>> aircraft so QANTAS can keep flying over Russia, I don't think that
>>>>> the
>>>>> QANTAS direct to London flights would be possible if they were
>>>>> banned.

>>>> Keith, according to FR24
>>>> (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/qf1#2afe9d0f) they're
>>>> flying via o/head Kuwait, then abeam Baghdad, Turkey, southern end of
>>>> the Black Sea, then Rumania via o/head Bucharest, Hungary, etc to
>>>> LHR. So, safely away from nasty people.

>>> The thing that I wondered was that the route is close to maximum
>>> range, and presumably the great circle route goes over Russia. So how
>>> much of a deviation can they make? I suppose that carrying a few less
>>> passengers would help, but that cuts revenue.

>> They can obviously get real radical and scrap the non stop to London
>> while they can't overfly russia or the Ukraine. Or even continue to fly
>> it and have an unplanned stop for fuel if the winds etc are unsuitable.

> Been there done that, Dallas to Brisbane in a 747 at maximum range, we
> had to stop in Noumea for a splash and dash when the winds weren't right.

So no problem doing that now.

>>>> Haven't bothered to seek out NOTAMs, but I'd suggest they're around.
>>>> Still lots of non-Russian aircraft flying over Russia but none I can
>>>> see over Ukraine.

>>>> Currently: Cathay, Turkish, Korean, Lufhansa, Air India, lots of
>>>> Chinese (not surprisingly) just in a quick scan.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

<op.1ihy5kirbyq249@pvr2.lan>

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From: rod.spee...@gmail.com (Rod Speed)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2022 19:28:22 +1100
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 by: Rod Speed - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 08:28 UTC

keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
> Rod Speed wrote
>> keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
>>> Rod Speed wrote
>>>> Daryl <dwalford@westpine.com.au> wrote
>>>>> Rod Speed wrote
>>>>>> keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote
>>>>>>> Rod Speed wrote

>>>>>>>>> I wouldn't hold out much hope of them getting spares, even if
>>>>>>>>> they hold onto them.

>>>>>>>> Corse they can from India and China.

>>>>>>> And if those countries do, the US can ban spare going to their
>>>>>>> aircraft.

>>>>>> But no way to police that.

>>>>> Not easy at all

>>>> Impossible actually if they get the maintenance done
>>>> in India or China instead of currently in Germany.

>>> And how many heavy maintenance facilities exist in those countries?

>> They don't necessarily need much heavy maintenance
>> given that they can now fly to far fewer places.

No point in ignoring that.

>> And it is a tad unlikely that russia gets other than russia
>> to do the heavy maintenance on their military aircraft so
>> they can do that on their western aircraft too.

> depends on whether they have Boeing and AirBus qualified facilities. I
> do rather doubt it.

Unlikely they get all theirs done outside those two countrys.

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

<svtbd3$mic$1@reader1.panix.com>

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From: wb8...@panix.com (David Lesher)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 15:31:47 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: NRK Clinic for habitual NetNews Abusers - Beltway Annex
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 by: David Lesher - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 15:31 UTC

"Rod Speed" <rod.speed.aaa@gmail.com> writes:

>keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote

>They can obviously get real radical and scrap the non stop to London
>while they can't overfly russia or the Ukraine. Or even continue to fly
>it and have an unplanned stop for fuel if the winds etc are unsuitable.

>>> Haven't bothered to seek out NOTAMs, but I'd suggest they're around.

More important than NOTAM's is what their insurance carrier tells them.
I'll bet that is "Stay WELL clear of the area..."

--
A host is a host from coast to coast...............wb8foz@panix.com
& no one will talk to a host that's close..........................
Unless the host (that isn't close).........................pob 1433
is busy, hung or dead....................................20915-1433

Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?

<op.1iinkyhfbyq249@pvr2.lan>

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From: rod.spee...@gmail.com (Rod Speed)
Newsgroups: aus.aviation
Subject: Re: Russian airlines now pariahs ?
Date: Sat, 05 Mar 2022 04:16:00 +1100
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 by: Rod Speed - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 17:16 UTC

David Lesher <wb8foz@panix.com> wrote
> Rod Speed <rod.speed.aaa@gmail.com> wrote
>> keithr0 <user@account.invalid> wrote

>> They can obviously get real radical and scrap the non stop to London
>> while they can't overfly russia or the Ukraine. Or even continue to fly
>> it and have an unplanned stop for fuel if the winds etc are unsuitable.

>>>> Haven't bothered to seek out NOTAMs, but I'd suggest they're around.

> More important than NOTAM's is what their insurance carrier tells them.
> I'll bet that is "Stay WELL clear of the area..."

Qantas did that on their own initiative very early on.

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