It's just a question of how strong it will be and how long will it last, for me:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The question the world will face, of course, is whether it will bring record monthly temperatures and a plethora of max. temperature records, towards the end of this year and a record annual global temperature in 2024-25. Then what effect that will have on 8 billion people.

It's a difficult and a scary prospect. We have to act and act quickly and yes; it will cost money. A lot of money. But if we manage to head off disaster, it will be the best money the world has ever spent.

On 15/05/2023 19:09, Paul wrote:
> It's just a question of how strong it will be and how long will it last, for me:
>
> https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
>
> The question the world will face, of course, is whether it will bring record monthly temperatures and a plethora of max. temperature records, towards the end of this year and a record annual global temperature in 2024-25. Then what effect that will have on 8 billion people.
>
> It's a difficult and a scary prospect. We have to act and act quickly and yes; it will cost money. A lot of money. But if we manage to head off disaster, it will be the best money the world has ever spent.
>

Oz Bureaux of Meteorology has backtracked to 2.7 deg C from their
previous prediction of 2.8 deg C. But 2.8 deg C looks credible from the
rather too perfect mathematical progression taken from the
NOAA ONI listing of the highest El Ninos since 1950s
1957, +1.8 deg C maximum
1965, +2.0 max
1972, +2.1 max
1982, +2.2 max
1997, +2.4 max
2015, +2.6 max
2023, +2.8?? max
any suspicion the Earth has cooled in the last 8 years ?

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

> Oz Bureaux of Meteorology has backtracked to 2.7 deg C from their
> previous prediction of 2.8 deg C. But 2.8 deg C looks credible from the
> rather too perfect mathematical progression taken from the
> NOAA ONI listing of the highest El Ninos since 1950s
> 1957, +1.8 deg C maximum
> 1965, +2.0 max
> 1972, +2.1 max
> 1982, +2.2 max
> 1997, +2.4 max
> 2015, +2.6 max
> 2023, +2.8?? max
> any suspicion the Earth has cooled in the last 8 years ?
>

2 degree C SST anomaly moving into ENSO sea area 3.4

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

Thank god for that. There hasn’t been an ‘End Of The World multivariate
linear chi-squared extrapolation to 2100’ post for a little while now. Doom
and gloom are firmly back on the Indicial curve fit t-test 3-sigma
regression curve.

Paul <paulgarvey@talktalk.net> wrote:

> It's just a question of how strong it will be and how long will it last, for me:

> https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

> The question the world will face, of course, is whether it will bring
> record monthly temperatures and a plethora of max. temperature records,
> towards the end of this year and a record annual global temperature in
> 2024-25. Then what effect that will have on 8 billion people.

> It's a difficult and a scary prospect. We have to act and act quickly and
> yes; it will cost money. A lot of money. But if we manage to head off
> disaster, it will be the best money the world has ever spent.

--
Spike