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aus+uk / uk.sci.weather / [ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetry

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o [ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetryN_Cook

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[ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetry

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From: dive...@tcp.co.uk (N_Cook)
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Subject: [ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetry
Date: Sun, 21 May 2023 12:15:30 +0100
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 by: N_Cook - Sun, 21 May 2023 11:15 UTC

Latest output 20 May 2023 data to 2023.254739 (03 Apr 2023).
Not late enough data to reflect the return to El Nino yet or even
positive trend through neutral (about 5 month lag behind Oct 2022 that
ONI started going positive, so maybe the next Aviso output ) .
Indicial curve fit still the best fit and the century projection curve
y = 2.559919 + 0.094215*x^1.423626

y is global SLR in Aviso terms and x is year minus 2000, 6dp figures
retained for anyone else wishing to repeat/confirm these results.
To 2100 processing all the data each time ,from 2003.0 to avoid
post-Pinatubo global geodata stabilisation ,745 datapoints, SLR of
68.838 cm

Recent history of these processed Aviso 10 day outputs , after a very
long run of -going values , the 24 Dec 2022 one, the first regular 10
day whole-earth-orbits scan cycle Aviso output, started going positive
but then continued negative

Latest data-point date, 2100 projected value
24 Dec 2022, 70.011cm
03 Jan 2023, 70.008
13 Jan 2023, 70.07
23 Jan 2023, 70.08
02 Feb 2023, 69.94
22 Feb 2023, 69.45
03 Mar 2023, 69.33
14 Mar 2023, 69.31
24 Mar 2023, 69.17
03 Apr 2023, 68.84cm

From that curve for the last year 2022.0 to 2023.0,
annual global SLR of 5.016 mm and locally for South Hampshire UK , sinking
from post-glacial isostatic rebound counter-balance by about 1.7mm/year,
(minus the 0.3mm/yr GIA included in the Aviso
reference figures) gives 6.42mm/year or 1/4 inch per year for the Solent
SLR, so
about half a millimetre a month local SLR. Earlier results on the URL below

Using
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_GIA_Adjust_Filter2m.txt
data from
http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html

and off-line curve-fitter from
<statpages.info/nonlin.html>

For NOAA ENSO ONI and BoM ENSO predictions/evaluations, about 5 month
lag between ONI mid neutral and most representative SLR corresponding to
mid ENSO cycle , the best SLR
projection should be for an Aviso data output in about October 2023,
until the next ENSO mid neutral plus lag period in 2026 or whenever .

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

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