Return to positive going prediction trend.
Latest output 03 Feb 2024 data to 2023.987722 (26 Dec 2023).

Indicial curve fit still the best fit and the century projection curve
y = 2.565632 + 0.093369*x^1.426399

y is global SLR in Aviso terms and x is year minus 2000, 6dp figures
retained for anyone else wishing to repeat/confirm these results.
To 2100 processing all the data each time ,from 2003.0 to avoid
post-Pinatubo global geodata hiatus ,772 datapoints, SLR of 69.093 cm.

Recent history of these processed Aviso 10 day outputs , after a very
long run of -going values , the 24 Dec 2022 one, the first regular 10
day whole-earth-orbits scan cycle Aviso output, started going positive
but then continued negative until July 2023 with El Nino kicking in.

Latest data-point date, 2100 projected value
24 Dec 2022, 70.011cm
03 Jan 2023, 70.008
13 Jan 2023, 70.07
23 Jan 2023, 70.08
02 Feb 2023, 69.94 (- 0.14)
22 Feb 2023, 69.45 (-0.49)
03 Mar 2023, 69.33 (-0.12)
14 Mar 2023, 69.31 (-0.02)
24 Mar 2023, 69.17 (-0.14)
03 Apr 2023, 68.84cm (-0.33)
22 Apr 2023, 68.05 (-0.79)
02 May 2023, 67.82 (-0.23)
12 May 2023, 67.82 ( zero )
22 May 2023, 67.800 ( -0.02 cm)
01 June 2023, 67.729 (-0.07cm
01 July 2023 , 67.479 (- 0.25cm)
11 July 2023, 67.694 (+0.21cm)
21 July 2023, 67.807 (+0.11cm)
30 July 2023, 67.862 (+0.06cm)
19 Aug 2023, 67.894 (+0.03cm)
29 Aug 2023, 67.9962 (+0.10cm)
08 Sep 2023, 68.044 (+0.05cm)
18 Sep 2023, 68.178 (+0.13cm)
18 Oct 2023, 68.904 (+0.72cm)
28 Oct 2023, 69.068 (+0.16cm)
06 Nov 2023, 69.201 (+0.13cm)
23 Dec 2023, 69.097 (-0.10cm)
06 Dec 2023, 68.969 (-0.13cm)
16 Dec 2023, 68.969 (zero to 3dp)
16 Dec 2023, 69.093 (+12cm)

From that curve for the last year 2023.0 to 2024.0,
annual global SLR of
5.12 mm and locally for South Hampshire UK , sinking
from post-glacial isostatic counter rebound by about 1.7mm/year, (minus
the 0.3mm/yr 'Peltier' global GIA included in the Aviso
reference figures) gives 6.52mm/year or more than 1/4 inch per year for
the Solent SLR, or more than half a millimetre a month local SLR.
Earlier results on the URL below. Being over-run by an increase in local
UK mean sea level of about 5mm/yr in recent years. No academic reporting
of that I'm aware of and no reply from any of the UK and world experts
on mean sea level and any explanation. I suspect with slowing of AMOC
and Greenland meltwater and Baltic freshwater and so salinity change ,
less dense and consequential increasing the sea height. The deep cold
return path is not up to the job and water is building up in the NE
Atlantic.
A slowing of AMOC from the principle that reductions in the amount of
Atlantic bottom water reaching the ocean floor increases sea levels
because the warmer water that replaces it takes up more space.
Analysing the red/blue difference of the Newlyn residuals over time
https://ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Newlyn&chrt=3
they should track together on average.
Similar separation for all other UK ports and in their recent archives.
It would be convenient to say there is a problem with the Exeter Met
Office/NTSLF big-data surge predictor of the blue or NTSLF tidecurves
underlying the red. But this UK MSL <>0.15m anomaly over recent years
is showing up with similar values in two other independent monitoring
processes, independent of NTSLF and independent of each other. Unknown
to me whether the same anomaly is showing up in Scandinavia or Iceland,
or France say. A possible alternative explanation could be
hydro-isostasy from the extra weight of sea water in the last few
decades , depressing the NE Atlantic basin. But how that would affect
the margin, ie like the UK, up or down is unknown to me , additional to
post-glacial GIA, but difficult to see it amounting to about 0.15m.
Or of course simple warming of N. Atlantic water to depth, increasing
sea level . Until the mechanism of this mean sea level rise is known,
its impossible to say whether the anomalous rise is limited, cyclic or
ongoing, currently my analysis of it shows it to be ongoing rising in
2023. Newlyn MSL anomaly latest determination since 2020.0 rising 5.5mm
per year, with a yearly superimposed sinusoid of 2.8cm amplitude in
2020, amplitude increasing by 8 percent per year. Peak anomaly in April
each year , current prediction of 0.19m anomaly peak in April 2024 above
global SLR and local GIA.

This global SLR curve fit using
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_GIA_Adjust_Filter2m.txt
data from
http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html

and off-line curve-fitter from
<statpages.info/nonlin.html>
--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>