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aus+uk / uk.sci.weather / [ CC ] Monitoring 'progress' to 2050/2100 : Global Temperature

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o [ CC ] Monitoring 'progress' to 2050/2100 : Global TemperatureN_Cook

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[ CC ] Monitoring 'progress' to 2050/2100 : Global Temperature

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From: dive...@tcp.co.uk (N_Cook)
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Subject: [ CC ] Monitoring 'progress' to 2050/2100 : Global Temperature
Date: Fri, 09 Feb 2024 18:37:56 +0000
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 by: N_Cook - Fri, 9 Feb 2024 18:37 UTC

The projection was increasing month on month since June 2023, now a fall.
First projected monthly occurance of 2 degC above pre-industrial temps
comes out as in 2034. As the Copernicus lot decided 2023 was the year of
a full year 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial. From this latest curve the
NOAA value for date 2023.5 was 1.063 deg C , so that plus 0.5 from the
curve would be in 2034.

updated data output on 09 Feb 2024
GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index
GHCN-v4 data
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Using offline javascript curvefitter at statpages.info
and curve types linear (no acceleration), exponential (increasing
acceleration), quadratic (constant acceleration), indicial (falling
acceleration)

best fit,by R^2, being indicial again, processing
the whole 253 point dataset from 2003.0
y= 0.560019 + 0.001886*x^1.769730

where x is year minus 2000, for post-Pinatubo 2003.0 start, avoiding
the 10 years of recovery of geodata after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, 6
figures retained for comparison by anyone else repeating this exercise.

for data to Jan 2024 with public output about 08 Feb 2024
For 2050 , 2.475421 deg C minus 1.082587 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so +1.393 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 7.091350 deg C minus 1.082587 , so +6.009 deg C

for data to Dec 2023 with public output 12 Jan 2024
For 2050 , 2.481986 deg C minus 1.082664 for year start 2024.0
of that curve , so +1.399 deg C above present.
For 2100 , 7.146254 deg C minus 1.082664 , so +6.064 deg C

for data to Nov 2023 with public output 14 Dec 2023
For 2050 , 2.326863 deg C minus 1.0536 for year start 2023.5
of that curve , so +1.273 deg C above present
For 2100 , 6.235169 deg C minus 1.0536 , so +5.182 deg C

for data to Oct 2023 with public output 16 Nov 2023
For 2050 , 2.184512 deg C minus 1.0394074 for year start 2023.5
of that curve , so +1.145 deg C above present
For 2100 , 5.487198 deg C minus 1.0394 , so +4.448 deg C

for data to Sep 2023 with public output 13 Oct 2023
For 2050 , 2.081545 deg C minus 1.030 for year start 2023.5
of that curve , so + 1.051 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.960298 deg C minus 1.030 , so + 3.930 deg C

for data to Aug 2023 with public output 14 Sep 2023
For 2050 , 1.980 deg C minus 1.023 for year start 2023.5
of that curve , so + 0.957 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.466 deg C minus 1.023 , so + 3.443 deg C

for data to July 2023 with public output 14 Aug 2023
For 2050 , 1.89858 deg C minus 1.014 for year
23.5 of that curve , so +0.885 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.086168 deg C minus 1.014 , so +3.072 deg C

for data to June 2023 with public output 14 July 2023
For 2050 , 1.857 deg C minus 1.007 for year
23.5 of that curve , so +0.850 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.928 deg C minus 1.007 , so +2.921 deg C

for data to May 2023 with public output June 2023
For 2050 , 1.857 deg C minus 0.9979 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.859 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.902 deg C minus 0.9979 , so +2.904 deg C

for data to Apr 2023 with public output 12 May 2023
For 2050 , 1.854 deg C minus 0.9949 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.859 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.908 deg C minus 0.9949 , so +2.913 deg C

for data to Mar 2023 with public output 13 Apr 2023
For 2050 , 1.878 deg C minus 0.9989 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.879 deg C above present
For 2100 ,3.999 deg C minus 0.9989 , so +3.000 deg C

for data to Feb 2023 with public output 14 Mar 2023
For 2050 , 1.821 deg C minus 0.989 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.831 deg C above present
For 2100 ,3.774 deg C minus 0.989 , so +2.784 deg C

for data to January 2023 with public output 14 Feb 2023
For 2050 , 1.846 deg C minus 0.9966 for year
23.0 (= decimal_year 2023 start)
of that curve , so 0.8494 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.8444 deg C minus 0.9966 , so +2.8478 deg C
suggesting continued La Nina

for data to December with public output 12 Jan 2023
For 2050 , 1.8813 deg C minus 0.9677 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start)
of that curve , so 0.9136 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.0319 deg C minus 0.9677 , so +3.0642 deg C
suggesting continued La Nina

for data to November with public output 14 Dec 2022
For 2050 , 1.927 deg C minus 0.9724 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 0.955 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.228 deg C minus 0.9724 , so +3.256 deg C
more than compensating negatively for last months determination,
returning to extended La Nina territory

for data to October with public output 15 Nov 2022
For 2050 , 1.998 deg C minus 0.9788 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 1.018 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.550 deg C minus 0.9788 , so +3.571 deg C

for data to September with public output about 15 Oct 2022
For 2050 , 1.996 deg C minus 0.97800 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 1.018 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.554 deg C minus 0.97800 , so +3.576 deg C
so going with continued La Nina

for data to August with public output about 14 Sep 2022
For 2050 , 2.036 deg C minus 0.98107 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 1.055 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.741 deg C minus 0.98107 , so + 3.760

for data to July with public output about 12 Aug 2022
For 2050 , 2.032 deg C minus 0.982 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 1.050 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.710 deg C minus 0.982 , so + 3.728

for data to June with public output about 15 July 2022
For 2050 , 2.084 deg C minus 0.985 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.099 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.957 deg C minus 0.985 , so + 3.972

for data to May with public output about 15 June 2022
For 2050 , 2.133 deg C minus 0.987 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.146 deg C above present
For 2100 , 5.217 deg C minus 0.987 , so + 4.23

for data to April 2022 public output about 13 May 2022
For 2050 , 2.205 deg C minus 0.992 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.213 deg C above present
For 2100 , 5.569 deg C minus 0.992 , so + 4.577

for data to March 2022
For 2050 , 2.291 deg C minus 1.003 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.288 deg C above present
For 2100 , 5.984 deg C minus 1.003 , so + 4.981

For data to Feb 2022
For 2050 , 2.301 deg C minus 1.004 for 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.297 deg C above present
For 2100 , 6.029 deg C minus 1.004 , so + 5.024

processing Jan 2022 output
For 2050 , 2.427 deg C minus 1.014 = 1.413
For 2100 , 6.70 deg C minus 1.014 = 5.686

For Nov 2021 output
2050 2.56 deg C minus 1.00 for 21.5 midyear as "present" ,=1.56
2100 6.90 deg C minus 1.00 = 5.90

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

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