I see on the media that the number of Covid cases is plummeting. Is
this because the number of Covid cases is really plummeting, or that
since lateral flow tests kits are no longer free, far fewer people are
testing and reporting?

--
Chris

On 03/05/2022 16:54, Chris Hogg wrote:
> I see on the media that the number of Covid cases is plummeting. Is
> this because the number of Covid cases is really plummeting, or that
> since lateral flow tests kits are no longer free, far fewer people are
> testing and reporting?
>

According to WHO, the same thing is happening globally.

--
Colin Bignell

On 03/05/2022 16:54, Chris Hogg wrote:
> I see on the media that the number of Covid cases is plummeting. Is
> this because the number of Covid cases is really plummeting, or that
> since lateral flow tests kits are no longer free, far fewer people are
> testing and reporting?

IIUC they base the number on a sample cross section of people who are
still testing. The sample sizes were quite large, so the figures ought
to be fairly representative. However I don't know how granular they are
on a regional basis.

--
Cheers,

John.

/=================================================================\
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|-----------------------------------------------------------------|
| John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk |
\=================================================================/

On 03/05/2022 16:54, Chris Hogg wrote:
> I see on the media that the number of Covid cases is plummeting. Is
> this because the number of Covid cases is really plummeting, or that
> since lateral flow tests kits are no longer free, far fewer people are
> testing and reporting?
>

Depends on which figures you have in mind. The ONS weekly figures show
the same decline. That's based on their survey which involves a sample
of people taking PCR tests at home.

<https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/29april2022>

--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid

On Wed, 04 May 2022 01:54:48 +1000, Chris Hogg <me@privacy.net> wrote:

> I see on the media that the number of Covid cases is plummeting. Is
> this because the number of Covid cases is really plummeting, or that
> since lateral flow tests kits are no longer free, far fewer people are
> testing and reporting?

No one knows the answer to that question and the only
way to answer it is to do random sampling and no one
who matters is doing that.

On 03/05/2022 16:54, Chris Hogg wrote:
> I see on the media that the number of Covid cases is plummeting. Is
> this because the number of Covid cases is really plummeting, or that
> since lateral flow tests kits are no longer free, far fewer people are
> testing and reporting?

Although the government are using the Trumpian bias of making the Covid
numbers look more favourable by not testing as much the real population
numbers are finally moving in the right direction *AT LAST*.

Independent REACT survey shows a 1M decline in the number of people
infected last week.

Details are still available (eventually) on weekdays on the usual site:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

For the last 7 days the numbers are in summary:

Tests 1.89M (-18%)
Positives 79.5k (-39.5%)
Hospitalised 8840 (-21.1%)
Deaths 1175 (-48%)

SO yes ~20% less testing but 40% less positives found and nearly 50%
fewer deaths. The warmer weather is finally starting to help.

I'm surprised that tests are only down by ~20% since all the testing
sites I know have shut down completely and are now dismantled and gone.

It could all go pear shaped again if people overdo the Platinum Jubilee.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On 03/05/2022 19:03, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 03/05/2022 16:54, Chris Hogg wrote:
>> I see on the media that the number of Covid cases is plummeting. Is
>> this because the number of Covid cases is really plummeting, or that
>> since lateral flow tests kits are no longer free, far fewer people are
>> testing and reporting?
>
> Although the government are using the Trumpian bias of making the Covid
> numbers look more favourable by not testing as much the real population
> numbers are finally moving in the right direction *AT LAST*.
>
> Independent REACT survey shows a 1M decline in the number of people
> infected last week.
>
> Details are still available (eventually) on weekdays on the usual site:
>
> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
>
> For the last 7 days the numbers are in summary:
>
> Tests         1.89M (-18%)
> Positives    79.5k (-39.5%)
> Hospitalised    8840  (-21.1%)
> Deaths        1175  (-48%)
>
> SO yes ~20% less testing but 40% less positives found and nearly 50%
> fewer deaths. The warmer weather is finally starting to help.
>
> I'm surprised that tests are only down by ~20% since all the testing
> sites I know have shut down completely and are now dismantled and gone.
>
> It could all go pear shaped again if people overdo the Platinum Jubilee.
>
It will only go pear shaped if there is a new variant.

Or Her Majesty gets them out for the lads.

On 03/05/2022 17:11, Colin Bignell wrote:
> On 03/05/2022 16:54, Chris Hogg wrote:
>> I see on the media that the number of Covid cases is plummeting. Is
>> this because the number of Covid cases is really plummeting, or that
>> since lateral flow tests kits are no longer free, far fewer people are
>> testing and reporting?
>>
>
> According to WHO, the same thing is happening globally.
>
Except apparently in China...

--
Climate is what you expect but weather is what you get.
Mark Twain

On 03/05/2022 19:21, ARW wrote:
> On 03/05/2022 19:03, Martin Brown wrote:
>> On 03/05/2022 16:54, Chris Hogg wrote:
>>> I see on the media that the number of Covid cases is plummeting. Is
>>> this because the number of Covid cases is really plummeting, or that
>>> since lateral flow tests kits are no longer free, far fewer people are
>>> testing and reporting?
>>
>> Although the government are using the Trumpian bias of making the
>> Covid numbers look more favourable by not testing as much the real
>> population numbers are finally moving in the right direction *AT LAST*.
>>
>> Independent REACT survey shows a 1M decline in the number of people
>> infected last week.
>>
>> Details are still available (eventually) on weekdays on the usual site:
>>
>> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
>>
>> For the last 7 days the numbers are in summary:
>>
>> Tests         1.89M (-18%)
>> Positives    79.5k (-39.5%)
>> Hospitalised    8840  (-21.1%)
>> Deaths        1175  (-48%)
>>
>> SO yes ~20% less testing but 40% less positives found and nearly 50%
>> fewer deaths. The warmer weather is finally starting to help.
>>
>> I'm surprised that tests are only down by ~20% since all the testing
>> sites I know have shut down completely and are now dismantled and gone.
>>
>> It could all go pear shaped again if people overdo the Platinum Jubilee.
>>
> It will only go pear shaped if there is a new variant.

Be careful what you wish for! Omicron XE a more infectious recombinant
strain derived from BA.1 and BA.2 looks well placed to be it.

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/04/30/xe-variant-what-do-we-know-about-the-new-covid-hybrid-strain-of-omicron-found-in-the-uk-an
>
> Or Her Majesty gets them out for the lads.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Wed, 04 May 2022 04:21:23 +1000, ARW <adamwadsworth@blueyonder.co.uk>
wrote:

> On 03/05/2022 19:03, Martin Brown wrote:
>> On 03/05/2022 16:54, Chris Hogg wrote:
>>> I see on the media that the number of Covid cases is plummeting. Is
>>> this because the number of Covid cases is really plummeting, or that
>>> since lateral flow tests kits are no longer free, far fewer people are
>>> testing and reporting?
>> Although the government are using the Trumpian bias of making the
>> Covid numbers look more favourable by not testing as much the real
>> population numbers are finally moving in the right direction *AT LAST*.
>> Independent REACT survey shows a 1M decline in the number of people
>> infected last week.
>> Details are still available (eventually) on weekdays on the usual site:
>> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
>> For the last 7 days the numbers are in summary:
>> Tests 1.89M (-18%)
>> Positives 79.5k (-39.5%)
>> Hospitalised 8840 (-21.1%)
>> Deaths 1175 (-48%)
>> SO yes ~20% less testing but 40% less positives found and nearly 50%
>> fewer deaths. The warmer weather is finally starting to help.
>> I'm surprised that tests are only down by ~20% since all the testing
>> sites I know have shut down completely and are now dismantled and gone.
>> It could all go pear shaped again if people overdo the Platinum
>> Jubilee.

> It will only go pear shaped if there is a new variant.

That is less clear. Most of the first world are still getting
lots of deaths per day, even the ones like Australia with
very high vaccination rates, well over 95% now and lots
getting infected every day. It is less clear how much worse
that will be with major events with hardly anyone wearing
a mask will produce unless the events are mostly outside.

> Or Her Majesty gets them out for the lads.

Those wouldn't be pear shaped, they would be down below her waist now.

On 03/05/2022 20:26, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
> On 03/05/2022 17:11, Colin Bignell wrote:
>> On 03/05/2022 16:54, Chris Hogg wrote:
>>> I see on the media that the number of Covid cases is plummeting. Is
>>> this because the number of Covid cases is really plummeting, or that
>>> since lateral flow tests kits are no longer free, far fewer people are
>>> testing and reporting?
>>>
>>
>> According to WHO, the same thing is happening globally.
>>
> Except apparently in China...
>

Given that official figures, which cannot be verified, show very low
rates as the norm, any new outbreak will produce a sudden peak. However,
even in China, the current rate is put at 38% of the peak recorded on
13th February and falling.

--
Colin Bignell