https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

<quotes>

US secretary of state Antony Blinken says the mutiny was a direct challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin

</quotes>

Of course it was a direct challenge, but a challenge which has come to nothing.

Anti-Putin propagandists were hoping Pastrychef's uprising would rip Putin a new one, bring about regime change, but it has quickly ended with Putin still in power, Pastrychef winning a cash prize and a lifetime holiday in Belarus.

It's now pure wishful thinking for the propagandist to imagine this failed coup signals the beginning of the end for Putin.

This insurrection has been no more successful than the January 6th attack on Capitol Hill. That was also meant to preface the beginning of the end. As were all those ANTIFA and BLM riots. It wasn't. It's rare that failed coups and uprisings ever are.

Anyone gullible enough to believe propagandist claims that failure is success is simply drinking Kool Aid.

The Happy Hippy wrote:
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142
>
> <quotes>
>
> US secretary of state Antony Blinken says the mutiny was a direct challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin
>
> </quotes>
>
> Of course it was a direct challenge, but a challenge which has come to nothing.
>
> Anti-Putin propagandists were hoping Pastrychef's uprising would rip Putin a new one, bring about regime change, but it has quickly ended with Putin still in power, Pastrychef winning a cash prize and a lifetime holiday in Belarus.
>
> It's now pure wishful thinking for the propagandist to imagine this failed coup signals the beginning of the end for Putin.
>
> This insurrection has been no more successful than the January 6th attack on Capitol Hill. That was also meant to preface the beginning of the end. As were all those ANTIFA and BLM riots. It wasn't. It's rare that failed coups and uprisings ever are.
>
> Anyone gullible enough to believe propagandist claims that failure is success is simply drinking Kool Aid.
>
The incident makes him look weak, after all he had to call in his
hobbled buddy from Belarus to bargain for him.

Not sure who you are claiming said this failure was a success, your joy
at Putrid surviving is pretty obvious, as expected from a self
proclaimed "proud communist".

Here is something a bit more up your alley, it was all one big false flag !

'No, this is all staged': Ex-CIA analyst claims Putin 'orchestrated' the
Wagner coup with Prigozhin as a 'classic false flag' to boost
recruitment for the army and make West think he is weakened

Ex-CIA analyst Rebekah Koffler claimed Vladimir Putin
'orchestrated' the coup
She suggested Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhi worked together to stage
the uprising
Kremlin faces a 'deeply unstable' situation after the Wagner truce,
experts warn

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12231599/Ex-CIA-analyst-claims-Putin-orchestrated-Wagner-coup-Prigozhin-classic-false-flag.html

Something does seem off indeed, just days ago Putrid had declared him a
traitor and vowed to take harsh measures against them, now all
apparently is forgiven ,, Which also makes him look like a barking dog
with no bite.

--
Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for
light and light for darkness, who put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter.

On Sun, 25 Jun 2023 14:11:35 -0400
JeSSe <zo@so.org> wrote:

> Here is something a bit more up your alley, it was all one big false
> flag !
>
> 'No, this is all staged': Ex-CIA analyst claims Putin 'orchestrated'
> the Wagner coup with Prigozhin as a 'classic false flag' to boost
> recruitment for the army and make West think he is weakened

I'd heard it was all about tricking NATO and Ukraine into believing Wagner had been exiled to Belarus when Putin is simply positioning them for an attack on Kiev.

But the real trick may be having NATO and Ukraine believe he has done that.

Ukraine will have to move forces just in case, weakening the counter-offensive, and NATO will have to put up with more bleating from Zelensky that he needs help, needs more billions of American taxpayer money.

An alternative theory is Putin has just stitched-up Wagner. He's moved tactical nukes into Belarus and when they get thrown into Ukraine he now gets plausible deniability that it's anything to do with him.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

On Sun, 25 Jun 2023 16:27:58 +0100, The Happy Hippy wrote:

> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142
>
> <quotes>
>
> US secretary of state Antony Blinken says the mutiny was a direct
> challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin
>
> </quotes>
>
> Of course it was a direct challenge, but a challenge which has come to
> nothing.
>
> Anti-Putin propagandists were hoping Pastrychef's uprising would rip
> Putin a new one, bring about regime change, but it has quickly ended
> with Putin still in power, Pastrychef winning a cash prize and a
> lifetime holiday in Belarus.

Saddam was left in power. It didn't ultimately do him much good.

I don't know how much this has weakened Putin - the forces opposing him
seem to be struggling as much as he is - but I don't think the overall
weakness is fake. Russia has always done their best to appear
intimidating militarily. They might get a negotiated peace if they could
convince Ukraine and NATO that it was all over, that Russian victory was
inevitable. If Ukraine were to be tricked and they looked like losing
NATO would just send them a load more weapons.

We can't afford Russia to win. It's not about deposing Putin or
collapsing Russia it's about not giving the Russians the same impression
that the Nazis had, that they were undefeatable and could take anywhere
their tanks and troops could occupy. They make their neighbours nervous
and that fear isn't historically without cause. If the annexation of
Crimea had been opposed maybe we wouldn't even be in this situation now.

On Sun, 25 Jun 2023 14:11:35 -0400
JeSSe <zo@so.org> wrote:

> > Anti-Putin propagandists were hoping Pastrychef's uprising would
> > rip Putin a new one, bring about regime change, but it has quickly
> > ended with Putin still in power, Pastrychef winning a cash prize
> > and a lifetime holiday in Belarus.
> >
> > It's now pure wishful thinking for the propagandist to imagine this
> > failed coup signals the beginning of the end for Putin.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

<quote>

Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has made it clear that he didn't target Putin when he declared his troops would march on Moscow, saying: "We didn't march to overthrow Russia's leadership."

</quote>

Even if there was "say that or you're dead" persuasion, the anti-Putin propagandist claim that "it has shown Putin to be weak" is diminished even further.

They can say it proves Putin is weak, can keep saying it, but just saying it doesn't make it so.

There is no evidence anyone in Russia believes that bullshit except those who were against Putin to start with. How the west would like it to be hasn't translated into how Russians are seeing it. It's being dismissed as simply more anti-Russian propaganda from the west and support for Putin remains strong.

In fact there are some reports that Putin showing compassion to those who misguidedly looked to be attacking Russia has increased support.

Most credible analysts appear to be accepting Putin's power base remains intact, the mutiny wasn't what some were hoping it would be, are slowly backing away from their claims it was the beginning of the end for Putin, are leaving the hardcore propagandists to stick with their wishful thinking that it is.

<quote>

The UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has played down the significance of the failed mutiny by the head of Wagner on Russia and the wider war in Ukraine.

</quote>

On Mon, 26 Jun 2023 18:59:24 GMT
TWP <ngspammersad@yahoo.com> wrote:

> On Sun, 25 Jun 2023 16:27:58 +0100, The Happy Hippy wrote:
>
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142
> >
> > <quotes>
> >
> > US secretary of state Antony Blinken says the mutiny was a direct
> > challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin
> >
> > </quotes>
> >
> > Of course it was a direct challenge, but a challenge which has come
> > to nothing.
> >
> > Anti-Putin propagandists were hoping Pastrychef's uprising would rip
> > Putin a new one, bring about regime change, but it has quickly ended
> > with Putin still in power, Pastrychef winning a cash prize and a
> > lifetime holiday in Belarus.
>
> Saddam was left in power. It didn't ultimately do him much good.
>
> I don't know how much this has weakened Putin - the forces opposing
> him seem to be struggling as much as he is - but I don't think the
> overall weakness is fake. Russia has always done their best to
> appear intimidating militarily. They might get a negotiated peace if
> they could convince Ukraine and NATO that it was all over, that
> Russian victory was inevitable. If Ukraine were to be tricked and
> they looked like losing NATO would just send them a load more
> weapons.
>
> We can't afford Russia to win. It's not about deposing Putin or
> collapsing Russia it's about not giving the Russians the same
> impression that the Nazis had, that they were undefeatable and could
> take anywhere their tanks and troops could occupy. They make their
> neighbours nervous and that fear isn't historically without cause.

If we can't afford to let Russia win; how far are you prepared to go to stop them winning ?

Putin cannot afford to let NATO win; how far do you think he will go to stop NATO winning ?

> If the annexation of Crimea had been opposed maybe we wouldn't even
> be in this situation now.

Likewise if Obama and Biden hadn't instigated and funded the uprising in Ukraine, if NATO hadn't broken their promise not to expand eastwards, if we and NATO hadn't made ourselves existential threats to Russia.

On Mon, 26 Jun 2023 20:24:18 +0100
The Happy Hippy <the.happy.hippy.nntp@ntlworld.invalid> wrote:

> They can say it proves Putin is weak, can keep saying it, but just
> saying it doesn't make it so.
>
> There is no evidence anyone in Russia believes that bullshit except
> those who were against Putin to start with. How the west would like
> it to be hasn't translated into how Russians are seeing it. It's
> being dismissed as simply more anti-Russian propaganda from the west
> and support for Putin remains strong.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66026851

<quote>

Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists he doesn't agree that Putin is in a weakened position, and mocked the "ultra-emotional tantrums among political scientists and pseudo-political scientists" speculating on the stability of the Russian president's authority following the mutiny.

</quote>

Of course, "he would say that", but it does seem to reflect widespread Russian sentiment.

There is all kinds of nonsense in the western press still pushing claims that Putin's done for, that he's so weakened by this non-coup that he won't even stand for re-election in 2024. It's all wishful thinking.

What is interesting is hearing what Wagner supporters have had to say. There appears to have been only muted support for the mutiny and many now believe it was a false-flag scam by Pastrychef, who was paid to expose the anti-Putin rebels within Wagner's ranks. Putin handing him a cash prize and an unpunished escape only makes that sound more credible. Most consider Pastrychef has betrayed them, has destroyed Wagner, by mounting the attempted coup then backing down, or being a part of a plot against them.

It all reminds me of Farage during the 2019 general election, when he was going to rip the Conservatives a new one with his Brexit Party, before betraying his supporters by standing down his candidates and telling them to vote Conservative.

Brextremists imagined it was the beginning of the end of the Conservatives, that it showed just how weak the party was, but it wasn't and didn't. Johnson won with a landslide, wasn't weakened at all.

On Mon, 26 Jun 2023 20:24:18 +0100
The Happy Hippy <the.happy.hippy.nntp@ntlworld.invalid> pointed to:

> <quote>
>
> The UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has played down the significance
> of the failed mutiny by the head of Wagner on Russia and the wider
> war in Ukraine.
>
> </quote>

Ukraine seems determined to stick with wishful thinking -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66037913

<quotes>

The drama over the border in Russia has hardened the view in Kyiv that Mr Putin's time as Russia's president is coming to an end.

"I think the countdown has started," said Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's closest adviser.

Senior Ukrainian officials who spoke to the BBC here in Kyiv all argued that President Putin could not ride out a catastrophic loss of authority.

The Wagner mutiny, and Mr Prigozhin's denunciation of the Kremlin's justifications for the war have, they said, removed what remained of Mr Putin's chances of hanging on.

"The Putin regime" one of them insisted, "cannot be saved."

Wishful thinking must play a part in the assessments they share with journalists.

</quotes>

Wishful thinking has its own dangers when what's wished for doesn't materialise, as we know from endless claims of victory being just around the corner in Afghanistan.

All it does is damage the credibility of those indulging in wishful thinking.

With little progress in the counter-offensive so far, it may be Zelensky who is put out of office before Putin is.

On Wed, 28 Jun 2023 11:22:10 +0100
The Happy Hippy <the.happy.hippy.nntp@ntlworld.invalid> pointed to:

> The Wagner mutiny, and Mr Prigozhin's denunciation of the Kremlin's
> justifications for the war have, they said, removed what remained of
> Mr Putin's chances of hanging on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion

<quote>

n a video released on 23 June 2023, Prigozhin claimed that the government's justifications for invading Ukraine were based on falsehoods, and that the invasion was designed to further the interests of Russian elites. He accused the MoD of attempting to deceive the public and the president by portraying Ukraine as an aggressive and hostile adversary which, in collaboration with NATO, was plotting an attack on Russian interests.

</quote>

I'm not convinced parroting and embellishing what Ukrainian, western and anti-Putin propagandists have been saying since the invasion began is going to convince Russians the propagandists were right all along.

It could work if Russia had a majority opposed to Putin, but not when the overwhelming majority supports him, believe the Putin narrative. Most Russians do see NATO's expansion eastwards as an existential threat, confirmed by Biden saying he sought regime change.

Rather than have loyal Russians turn on Putin I would expect them to turn on Wagner, assume they'd become traitors, had started batting for the wrong side, had fallen for propaganda and lies.

And that appears to be what has happened. It has not dented the accepted narrative in Russia at all. The so-called mutiny is being seen as Pastrychef having simply been suckered and deluded by anti-Putin propaganda, a temporary insanity which has been addressed by Putin, and it's back to business as usual.

The idea that Putin has been weakened is purely an anti-Putin invention. I am sure propagandists would like to believe it, but it's just fantasy.