I wish it weren't so, but it's been about a month since cases in Indiana
hit a local minima, and they've been going up steadily from that low of
about 196 cases per day to their present number of 764 cases per day (7
day moving average). Yes: cases nearly quadrupled in just less than 30 days.

<https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm>

And suddenly, the Government of Indiana has added deaths from as far
back as July 21 (I've noticed that the speed with which the website gets
updated seems to depend a lot on whether the news is good or bad).

And to be clear, Indiana is hardly the worst jurisdiction. In Florida,
the case rate has no risen to a new all-time high of 18,292 cases per day.

<https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/florida>

I feel sorry for the people of the US in all jurisdictions that haven't
given this pandemic the serious response it requires.

On Jul 27, 2021 at 11:29:52 AM MST, "Alan Baker" wrote
<sdpjb0$51d$1@gioia.aioe.org>:

> I wish it weren't so, but it's been about a month since cases in Indiana
> hit a local minima, and they've been going up steadily from that low of
> about 196 cases per day to their present number of 764 cases per day (7
> day moving average). Yes: cases nearly quadrupled in just less than 30 days.
>
> <https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm>
>
> And suddenly, the Government of Indiana has added deaths from as far
> back as July 21 (I've noticed that the speed with which the website gets
> updated seems to depend a lot on whether the news is good or bad).
>
>
> And to be clear, Indiana is hardly the worst jurisdiction. In Florida,
> the case rate has no risen to a new all-time high of 18,292 cases per day.
>
> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/florida>
>
> I feel sorry for the people of the US in all jurisdictions that haven't
> given this pandemic the serious response it requires.

In the US we have a myth that we do not need a government to get us to do the
right thing... but then people refuse to do things as simple as wear a mask
and get vaccinated.

We are a crumbling society.

--
Personal attacks from those who troll show their own insecurity. They cannot use reason to show the message to be wrong so they try to feel somehow superior by attacking the messenger.

They cling to their attacks and ignore the message time and time again.

On 7/27/2021 11:29 AM, Alan Baker wrote:
> I wish it weren't so, but it's been about a month since cases in Indiana
> hit a local minima, and they've been going up steadily from that low of
> about 196 cases per day to their present number of 764 cases per day (7
> day moving average). Yes: cases nearly quadrupled in just less than 30
> days.
>
> <https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm>
>
> And suddenly, the Government of Indiana has added deaths from as far
> back as July 21 (I've noticed that the speed with which the website gets
> updated seems to depend a lot on whether the news is good or bad).
>
>
> And to be clear, Indiana is hardly the worst jurisdiction. In Florida,
> the case rate has no risen to a new all-time high of 18,292 cases per day.
>
> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/florida>
>
> I feel sorry for the people of the US in all jurisdictions that haven't
> given this pandemic the serious response it requires.

Florida is worst because it has an exceptionally low IQ governor.

On Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 2:29:55 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> I wish it weren't so, but it's been about a month since cases in Indiana
> hit a local minima, and they've been going up steadily from that low of
> about 196 cases per day to their present number of 764 cases per day (7
> day moving average). Yes: cases nearly quadrupled in just less than 30 days.
>
> <https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm>
>
> And suddenly, the Government of Indiana has added deaths from as far
> back as July 21 (I've noticed that the speed with which the website gets
> updated seems to depend a lot on whether the news is good or bad).
>
>
> And to be clear, Indiana is hardly the worst jurisdiction. In Florida,
> the case rate has no risen to a new all-time high of 18,292 cases per day..
>
> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/florida>
>
> I feel sorry for the people of the US in all jurisdictions that haven't
> given this pandemic the serious response it requires.

People have a choice. We have more vaccine than we need. You can walk into any chain drug store in the state and get vaccinated on the spot. You get almost certain immunity from a vaccine and take a vanishingly small risk of serious side effects. Or, you can take a chance on getting immunity from a case of COVID along with a significantly higher chance of serious long term side effects and death. Almost half the Indiana and U.S. population has chosen the latter. You can't cure stupid because stupid does not listen to facts. I have no sympathy for stupid.

BC has a less-stupid population, but still far from 100% high-IQ. Metro Vancouver has about 80% vaccinated, but the rest of the province is lower. Like the U.S., vaccination rates in rural areas are much lower. That's why BC cases have tripled over the last 3 weeks. Your deaths are coming too.

If you look at the patterns for Indiana cases and deaths they are very different from last year, at least for the present. Cases are on the increase, but deaths are not, and are much lower than 2020 at this time. I attribute this to the high 70-80% vaccination rate among the 60+ population most at risk from dying from COVID versus the 20-60% typical of younger age groups.

I wish we had some reliable stats on non-fatal long term COVID effects. Alas, those I have not found.

We add retrospective deaths, but they are almost always few relative to the original report. There are the occasional batches that come it as outliers.. Cases are not backdated. The daily number is the total for that day regardless of the actual date discovered. Not the best way to do it, but likely has little effect on the longer term trend.

On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 11:26:13 AM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> On Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 2:29:55 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> > I wish it weren't so, but it's been about a month since cases in Indiana
> > hit a local minima, and they've been going up steadily from that low of
> > about 196 cases per day to their present number of 764 cases per day (7
> > day moving average). Yes: cases nearly quadrupled in just less than 30 days.
> >
> > <https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm>
> >
> > And suddenly, the Government of Indiana has added deaths from as far
> > back as July 21 (I've noticed that the speed with which the website gets
> > updated seems to depend a lot on whether the news is good or bad).
> >
> >
> > And to be clear, Indiana is hardly the worst jurisdiction. In Florida,
> > the case rate has no risen to a new all-time high of 18,292 cases per day.
> >
> > <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/florida>
> >
> > I feel sorry for the people of the US in all jurisdictions that haven't
> > given this pandemic the serious response it requires.
> People have a choice. We have more vaccine than we need. You can walk into any chain drug store in the state and get vaccinated on the spot. You get almost certain immunity from a vaccine and take a vanishingly small risk of serious side effects. Or, you can take a chance on getting immunity from a case of COVID along with a significantly higher chance of serious long term side effects and death. Almost half the Indiana and U.S. population has chosen the latter. You can't cure stupid because stupid does not listen to facts. I have no sympathy for stupid.
>
> BC has a less-stupid population, but still far from 100% high-IQ. Metro Vancouver has about 80% vaccinated, but the rest of the province is lower. Like the U.S., vaccination rates in rural areas are much lower. That's why BC cases have tripled over the last 3 weeks. Your deaths are coming too.
>
> If you look at the patterns for Indiana cases and deaths they are very different from last year, at least for the present. Cases are on the increase, but deaths are not, and are much lower than 2020 at this time. I attribute this to the high 70-80% vaccination rate among the 60+ population most at risk from dying from COVID versus the 20-60% typical of younger age groups..
>
> I wish we had some reliable stats on non-fatal long term COVID effects. Alas, those I have not found.
>
> We add retrospective deaths, but they are almost always few relative to the original report. There are the occasional batches that come it as outliers. Cases are not backdated. The daily number is the total for that day regardless of the actual date discovered. Not the best way to do it, but likely has little effect on the longer term trend.

I forgot to add the link for the Canadian case increase: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-vaccines-fourth-wave-2021-1.6120284

On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:08:33 PM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 11:26:13 AM UTC-4, Thomas E. wrote:
> > On Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 2:29:55 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
> > > I wish it weren't so, but it's been about a month since cases in Indiana
> > > hit a local minima, and they've been going up steadily from that low of
> > > about 196 cases per day to their present number of 764 cases per day (7
> > > day moving average). Yes: cases nearly quadrupled in just less than 30 days.
> > >
> > > <https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm>
> > >
> > > And suddenly, the Government of Indiana has added deaths from as far
> > > back as July 21 (I've noticed that the speed with which the website gets
> > > updated seems to depend a lot on whether the news is good or bad).
> > >
> > >
> > > And to be clear, Indiana is hardly the worst jurisdiction. In Florida,
> > > the case rate has no risen to a new all-time high of 18,292 cases per day.
> > >
> > > <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/florida>
> > >
> > > I feel sorry for the people of the US in all jurisdictions that haven't
> > > given this pandemic the serious response it requires.
> >
> > People have a choice. We have more vaccine than we need.

That success was because of "big government" buying down risks and
leading the management of the ramp-up of the logistics supply chain.

> > You get almost certain immunity from a vaccine and take a vanishingly
> > small risk of serious side effects. Or, you can take a chance on getting
> > immunity from a case of COVID along with a significantly higher chance
> > of serious long term side effects and death.

Yup; pretty much the risk of death drops from 1.8% to 0.0001% ITs a fairly
similar ratio for hospitalizations (and costs thereof).

> > Almost half the Indiana and U.S. population has chosen the latter. You
> > can't cure stupid because stupid does not listen to facts. I have no
> > sympathy for stupid.

Fully vaxxed is at 49.8% as of 7/26/21; first shot is just under 58%; the public
is becoming more outwardly fed up with those who have spurned self-protection.

Drilling down, Vermont is leading at 67.4% (fully) and there's 24 entities (eg, 50
States +DC, PR, Guam, etc) who are at 50%+ (including NJ at #10, at 57.8%);
Indiana is at 39th, at 44%. Last place is Louisiana, at 36.6% ... but I believe that
I heard a report that the Delta flare-up there has lit a fire under vaccinations;
something like up +300%?

> > If you look at the patterns for Indiana cases and deaths they are very different
> > from last year, at least for the present. Cases are on the increase, but deaths
> > are not, and are much lower than 2020 at this time. I attribute this to the high
> > 70-80% vaccination rate among the 60+ population most at risk from dying
> > from COVID versus the 20-60% typical of younger age groups.

Makes sense, which is why higher age groups were prioritized back in the spring.

> > I wish we had some reliable stats on non-fatal long term COVID effects. Alas,
> > those I have not found.

I've been looking; the general trend for the "cost of survival" appears to be a
combination of the medical bills to be paid (average hospitalization ~$40K)
and then the question of what percentage of cases are "long" or chronic; the
numbers seem to be suggesting 20% and 10% of hospitalizations?

> > We add retrospective deaths, but they are almost always few relative to the
> > original report. There are the occasional batches that come it as outliers.
> > Cases are not backdated. The daily number is the total for that day regardless
> > of the actual date discovered. Not the best way to do it, but likely has little
> > effect on the longer term trend.

It is the better way to support long term trend analysis, although it requires doing
a "reset" to reload all data for each time one wants to run an analysis...that
hassle is what prompted me to effectively drop the weekly trend analysis that
I did for twelve months.

> I forgot to add the link for the Canadian case increase:
<https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-vaccines-fourth-wave-2021-1.6120284>

The reality is that its always been a "race" between vaccination uptake vs ongoing
infections, and we've known that there's always been a risk that a worse variant
could come along at any point, which is what has now happened with Delta, as the
current data is suggesting that it is ~1.8x more transmissible.

-hh

On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 2:29:19 PM UTC-4, -hh wrote:
> ..

Here's an interesting bar chart on vaccine uptake by demographic:

<https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1420461019827105792>

-hh

On 2021-07-28 8:26 a.m., Thomas E. wrote:
> On Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 2:29:55 PM UTC-4, Alan Baker wrote:
>> I wish it weren't so, but it's been about a month since cases in
>> Indiana hit a local minima, and they've been going up steadily from
>> that low of about 196 cases per day to their present number of 764
>> cases per day (7 day moving average). Yes: cases nearly quadrupled
>> in just less than 30 days.
>>
>> <https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm>
>>
>> And suddenly, the Government of Indiana has added deaths from as
>> far back as July 21 (I've noticed that the speed with which the
>> website gets updated seems to depend a lot on whether the news is
>> good or bad).
>>
>>
>> And to be clear, Indiana is hardly the worst jurisdiction. In
>> Florida, the case rate has no risen to a new all-time high of
>> 18,292 cases per day.
>>
>> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/florida>
>>
>> I feel sorry for the people of the US in all jurisdictions that
>> haven't given this pandemic the serious response it requires.
>
> People have a choice. We have more vaccine than we need. You can walk
> into any chain drug store in the state and get vaccinated on the
> spot. You get almost certain immunity from a vaccine and take a
> vanishingly small risk of serious side effects. Or, you can take a
> chance on getting immunity from a case of COVID along with a
> significantly higher chance of serious long term side effects and
> death. Almost half the Indiana and U.S. population has chosen the
> latter. You can't cure stupid because stupid does not listen to
> facts. I have no sympathy for stupid.

But you bragged:

"BTW, the Symphony on the Prairie concert last night was amazing. Pretty
much a full crowd. The city fireworks tonight are about a mile away, one
of three sites. Huge crowds will be there too. Have fun doing whatever
you do to entertain yourself. I can post videos I took of last night's
Stars Spangled Banner and fireworks if it will help you pass the time
until BC fully opens up."

You were PART of the stupid.

>
> BC has a less-stupid population, but still far from 100% high-IQ.
> Metro Vancouver has about 80% vaccinated, but the rest of the
> province is lower. Like the U.S., vaccination rates in rural areas
> are much lower. That's why BC cases have tripled over the last 3
> weeks. Your deaths are coming too.

But YOU were the one who was bragging about how well you'd done and how
wonderful it was that they ran the Indy 500 and you got to go to
concerts again, Liarboy.

>
> If you look at the patterns for Indiana cases and deaths they are
> very different from last year, at least for the present. Cases are on
> the increase, but deaths are not, and are much lower than 2020 at
> this time. I attribute this to the high 70-80% vaccination rate among
> the 60+ population most at risk from dying from COVID versus the
> 20-60% typical of younger age groups.
>
> I wish we had some reliable stats on non-fatal long term COVID
> effects. Alas, those I have not found.
>
> We add retrospective deaths, but they are almost always few relative
> to the original report. There are the occasional batches that come it
> as outliers. Cases are not backdated. The daily number is the total
> for that day regardless of the actual date discovered. Not the best
> way to do it, but likely has little effect on the longer term trend.

Deaths lag cases, Liarboy.

It was only 30 days ago that Indiana's case rate hit a local minimum...

....and it looks deaths may have just hit their local minimum.

<https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm>