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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 4-away/4-away cube action

SubjectAuthor
* 4-away/4-away cube actionTimothy Chow
+- Re: 4-away/4-away cube actionah...Clem
`- Rollout: 4-away/4-away cube actionTimothy Chow

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4-away/4-away cube action

<tgn5fn$30a2s$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 4-away/4-away cube action
Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2022 10:50:33 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 24 Sep 2022 14:50 UTC

XGID=a-BA-aD-B--BcB---d-b--bBb-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 136 X-O: 3-3/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: 4-away/4-away cube action

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 4-away/4-away cube action
Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2022 16:21:34 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Sun, 25 Sep 2022 20:21 UTC

On 9/24/2022 10:50 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=a-BA-aD-B--BcB---d-b--bBb-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10
>
> Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O    |   | O        O  X  O |
>  | X           O    |   | O        O  X  O |
>  |             O    |   |                  |
>  |             O    |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O  X        X    |   | X           X    |
>  | O  X        X    |   | X  O     X  X    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 141  O: 136 X-O: 3-3/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>

I might miss this on OTB, but X has a lot of numbers that either point
on her head or hit and make the three point. On the other side, X has
buried two checkers on the deuce point and has two stuck on the other
deuce point. All X's outfield points are stripped.

Not sure if the score matters, but 11 in the zone with one on the bar
says action double, and X owning both deuce points and only 2 homeboard
points says take.

Rollout: 4-away/4-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 4-away/4-away cube action
Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2022 08:28:26 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 26 Sep 2022 12:28 UTC

XGID=a-BA-aD-B--BcB---d-b--bBb-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10

Score is X:3 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 136 X-O: 3-3/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

4-away/4-away can be a tricky score when it comes to gammonish
positions. Generally speaking, in a blitzish position, you should
be quicker (than money) to double and quicker to pass. The gammon
value on a 2-cube is close to 1. There is a caveat, which is that
the player who takes a 2-cube has the option of recubing to 4. This
will obviously kill gammons, and the recube to 4 has a high takepoint
(around 33%). Nevertheless, it's usually the case that you have to
be wary of taking blitz cubes.

Based on the above principles, I passed this cube and was surprised
that XGR+ dinged me for a whopper. However, the rollout below
exonerates my decision, calling it a borderline take/pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 60.61% (G:31.19% B:0.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.39% (G:11.90% B:1.07%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.06% (G:32.38% B:1.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.94% (G:13.42% B:2.31%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.620 (-0.380)
Double/Take: +1.002 (+0.002)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.614..+0.625)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.991..+1.013)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

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