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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 6-away/3-away recube action

SubjectAuthor
* 6-away/3-away recube actionTimothy Chow
+- Re: 6-away/3-away recube actionah...Clem
`- Rollout: 6-away/3-away recube actionTimothy Chow

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6-away/3-away recube action

<tguqd8$264p$3@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 6-away/3-away recube action
Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2022 08:30:32 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 27 Sep 2022 12:30 UTC

XGID=-BBBCBB--A---------dabdbbA:1:1:1:00:1:4:0:7:10

Score is X:1 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 80 O: 55 X-O: 1-4/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: 6-away/3-away recube action

<tgv608$3f1i$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 6-away/3-away recube action
Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2022 11:48:23 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Tue, 27 Sep 2022 15:48 UTC

On 9/27/2022 8:30 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BBBCBB--A---------dabdbbA:1:1:1:00:1:4:0:7:10
>
> Score is X:1 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |                  |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
>  |                  |   | O     O  O  O  O |
>  |                  |   | O        O       |
>  |                  |   | O        O       |
>  |                  | X |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |       X          | +---+
>  |                  |   | X  X  X  X  X  X | | 2 |
>  |          X       |   | X  X  X  X  X  X | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 80  O: 55 X-O: 1-4/7
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

I'm not seeing many gammon losses for O, so her recube takepoint is
about 29%. Clearly she has that.

X wins outright if he hits, which is about 30%. So there's some logic
in cubing now due to the 11 market losers. The doubling window opens at
about 28%, so X is within the doubling window, in theory at least - just
being in the window doesn't mean the cube is correct.

I'll ship it here, and of course O should take this. The difference
between 6aC and already lost is mainly the time spent playing it out,
not the result.

RD/T

Rollout: 6-away/3-away recube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 6-away/3-away recube action
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:17:12 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 29 Sep 2022 12:17 UTC

XGID=-BBBCBB--A---------dabdbbA:1:1:1:00:1:4:0:7:10

Score is X:1 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 80 O: 55 X-O: 1-4/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Generally speaking, when you're trailing in the match score and
are holding a 2-cube, you should be looking to re-whip it to 4
at the slightest provocation. There are limits to this principle,
though. I redoubled to 4 here, but XG says that's a blunder. The
trouble is that X wins essentially zero gammons. The possibility
of winning the entire match this game is one of the main drivers
behind recubes ATS. In the variant below, X wins 6% or 7% gammons
according to XG, and that is just barely enough to make XG recube.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 34.68% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 65.32% (G:1.72% B:0.03%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 34.81% (G:0.88% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 65.19% (G:1.32% B:0.01%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: -0.281
Redouble/Take: -0.370 (-0.089)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+1.281)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.5%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (-0.283..-0.280)
Confidence Double: ± 0.002 (-0.372..-0.368)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBBCBB--A--------acbadbbA:1:1:1:00:1:4:0:7:10

Score is X:1 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 80 O: 57 X-O: 1-4/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 35.73% (G:6.70% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 64.27% (G:1.74% B:0.01%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 35.89% (G:6.54% B:0.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 64.11% (G:1.61% B:0.01%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: -0.190 (-0.004)
Redouble/Take: -0.185
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+1.185)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (-0.191..-0.188)
Confidence Double: ± 0.002 (-0.187..-0.184)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

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