XGID=----BaD-CBA-dB-a-d-c--A-b-:0:0:1:00:3:1:0:7:10

Score is X:3 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 134 X-O: 3-1/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

On 9/26/2022 8:29 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=----BaD-CBA-dB-a-d-c--A-b-:0:0:1:00:3:1:0:7:10
>
> Score is X:3 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X     O     O    |   | O        X     O |
>  | X           O    |   | O              O |
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |             O    |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O        X  X    |   | X     X          |
>  | O     X  X  X    |   | X  O  X          |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 132  O: 134 X-O: 3-1/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

At 4a, a doubled gammon is quite valuable since it wins the match outright.

Other than that, the gammonless takepoint for 4a 6a is a fairly normal
21-22% for both players. Are there enough gammons here to tip it one
way or the other? Well, 12 in the zone against a single checker can
make for a successful blitz. I count 16 POH rolls, plus X will probably
want to hit loose, and I think that only leaves 66 to not hit. Would be
a shame if X rolled that instead of hitting. (c:

Is this TG? Maybe, but I see a fair number of sequences where O turns
it around, so I'll ship it. Race is even and that's usually enough to
take, but the gammons give me pause, so I'll say pass. And since I'm not
sure about the take, it must be a cube.

D/P.

XGID=----BaD-CBA-dB-a-d-c--A-b-:0:0:1:00:3:1:0:7:10

Score is X:3 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 134 X-O: 3-1/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I thought this was an easy take for money, and I inferred that it
would be a take ATS. However, I underestimated X's gammon wins.
XG says it's a take for money, but much closer than I expected,
and a big pass ATS. It may be a tempting rule of thumb that when
you're trailing in the match score, you have more leeway for taking.
But this rule of thumb has many exceptions, and when the leader
is 4-away, the trailer has to be cautious about taking gammonish
cubes. Just because O has only one checker back and X has only a
two-point board doesn't mean that O is safe from gammons. X has
12 checkers in the zone, and O has another blot waiting to be
picked up. O's board is weak and she has a lot of checkers to
bring home yet.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.12% (G:26.99% B:0.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.88% (G:7.44% B:0.28%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.51% (G:27.31% B:1.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.49% (G:7.83% B:0.66%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.808 (-0.192)
Double/Take: +1.147 (+0.147)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.797..+0.818)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.130..+1.165)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=----BaD-CBA-dB-a-d-c--A-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.16% (G:26.89% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.84% (G:7.25% B:0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.44% (G:27.20% B:0.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.56% (G:7.58% B:0.27%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.772 (-0.171)
Double/Take: +0.942
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.058)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.761..+0.782)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.926..+0.959)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow