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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Break anchor and hit, or dump?

SubjectAuthor
* Break anchor and hit, or dump?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Break anchor and hit, or dump?ah....Clem
`- Rollout: Break anchor and hit, or dump?Timothy Chow

1
Break anchor and hit, or dump?

<th0fen$9l1o$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Break anchor and hit, or dump?
Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2022 23:35:52 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 28 Sep 2022 03:35 UTC

XGID=--CCAbBBB--a------bbBcbba-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Re: Break anchor and hit, or dump?

<th2p1r$fjfr$2@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Break anchor and hit, or dump?
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:31:55 -0400
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In-Reply-To: <th0fen$9l1o$3@dont-email.me>
 by: ah....Clem - Thu, 29 Sep 2022 00:31 UTC

On 9/27/2022 11:35 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--CCAbBBB--a------bbBcbba-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |                O |   | O  X  O  O  O  O |
>  |                O |   | O  X  O  O  O    |
>  |                  |   |       O          |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |          X  X    | +---+
>  |             X  X |   | X  O     X  X    | | 2 |
>  |    O        X  X |   | X  O  X  X  X    | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 101  O: 103 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 54

Dumping seems weak. O dances nine times and only hits from the bar 13
times (with a fair number of other loose hits) Maybe if X was farther
ahead in the race I'd dump, but unless O shakes 43 or 11 we have
counterplay when hit.

20/11*

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Break anchor and hit, or dump?

<th6m25$10d85$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Break anchor and hit, or dump?
Date: Fri, 30 Sep 2022 08:05:26 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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In-Reply-To: <th0fen$9l1o$3@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 30 Sep 2022 12:05 UTC

XGID=--CCAbBBB--a------bbBcbba-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

Hitting is tempting, but it means breaking the golden anchor, and
X has a blot in his board. O is the one who is behind in the pip
count and stands to gain more from a blot-hitting contest. XG says
that hitting is a whopper with cheese. But see the variant below,
where XG says that hitting and playing safe are very close.

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:+0.118
Player: 48.82% (G:4.96% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 51.18% (G:7.02% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.112..+0.123) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/11* eq:-0.022 (-0.140)
Player: 46.14% (G:10.12% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 53.86% (G:21.91% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.030..-0.014) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--CABbCBB--a------bbBcbba-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:+0.189
Player: 51.04% (G:5.54% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 48.96% (G:5.13% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.182..+0.196) - [99.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/11* eq:+0.175 (-0.013)
Player: 51.96% (G:11.56% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 48.04% (G:18.44% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.168..+0.183) - [0.6%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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