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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Attack or run?

SubjectAuthor
* Attack or run?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Attack or run?ah...Clem
`- Rollout: Attack or run?Timothy Chow

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Attack or run?

<th6m5o$10d85$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Attack or run?
Date: Fri, 30 Sep 2022 08:07:21 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 30 Sep 2022 12:07 UTC

XGID=--aCCCB-B----b----Babc-cc-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

Re: Attack or run?

<th7jc8$124ve$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Attack or run?
Date: Fri, 30 Sep 2022 16:25:41 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Fri, 30 Sep 2022 20:25 UTC

On 9/30/2022 8:07 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--aCCCB-B----b----Babc-cc-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | O              X |   | O  O  O     O  O | +---+
>  | O              X |   |    O  O     O  O | | 2 |
>  |                  |   |       O     O  O | +---+
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |    X  X  X       |
>  |             X    |   | X  X  X  X       |
>  |             X    |   | X  X  X  X  O    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 100  O: 84 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 53
>

Running dupes 5s to hit or escape, but unless she rolls 51 or 55 we're
still ok either way, and the other numbers play well. We have lots of
counterplay after an exchange of hits except for a roll of 62.

Both look sound. If there is an exchange of hits, or if this goes on for
a few rolls I think I prefer having the eight point over a crunched
board, so I'll run.

18/10.

Rollout: Attack or run?

<thbvrb$1mkme$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Attack or run?
Date: Sun, 2 Oct 2022 08:23:08 -0400
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In-Reply-To: <th6m5o$10d85$2@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 2 Oct 2022 12:23 UTC

XGID=--aCCCB-B----b----Babc-cc-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53

In the past, I have been repeated dinged by XG for not hitting loose
when I have a four-point board and the opponent's board is weaker
than mine. So I went for 8/3 5/2* here. However, the rollout does
not like it. Ah_clem noted that 18/10 duplicates 5's, which is
part of the story (see Variant 2 below, where if you ignore the new
top play of 18/13 5/2*, you'll see that 8/3 5/2* comes out ahead of
18/10). But even a seemingly small change like moving X's spare
from his 3pt to his 4pt changes the relative equities a lot (see
Variant 1 below).

1. Rollout¹ 18/10 eq:+0.362
Player: 68.53% (G:11.77% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 31.47% (G:3.10% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.356..+0.367) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/2* eq:+0.282 (-0.080)
Player: 67.26% (G:13.29% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 32.74% (G:10.01% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.276..+0.289) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=--aBDCB-B----b----Babc-cc-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/2* eq:+0.290
Player: 67.54% (G:13.45% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 32.46% (G:10.00% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.287..+0.293) - [53.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/10 eq:+0.290
Player: 66.04% (G:11.11% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 33.96% (G:3.36% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.287..+0.293) - [46.1%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=--aCCCB-B---b-----Babc-cc-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 18/13 5/2* eq:+0.503
Player: 74.03% (G:19.42% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 25.97% (G:9.61% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.497..+0.509) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/2* eq:+0.414 (-0.089)
Player: 70.82% (G:16.53% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 29.18% (G:8.29% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.407..+0.420) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/10 eq:+0.372 (-0.130)
Player: 67.78% (G:15.92% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 32.22% (G:3.88% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.367..+0.377) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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