and the fourth fur is not so obvious.

XGID=-EBcCBB-a--------A-cbcc---:3:-1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 8 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X O X |
| | | X X X O X X |
| O | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 60 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 8, O own cube
X to play 44

On 9/26/2022 1:20 PM, ah...Clem wrote:
>
> and the fourth fur is not so obvious.
>
> XGID=-EBcCBB-a--------A-cbcc---:3:-1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O O O | +---+
> | | | O O O O | | 8 |
> | | | O O O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X O X |
> | | | X X X O X X |
> | O | | X X X O X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 60 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 8, O own cube
> X to play 44

The obvious fours are 17/5. After that, I'd bear one with 4/off.
X is a favorite to win a gammon if he is not hit, but the gammon
is far from being in the bag, so taking a checker off should help
considerably. The alternative to consider is 5/1. After 4/off,
the immediate blotting rolls are 66 63 55 53 33, whereas after 5/1,
the immediate blotting rolls are 63 33. So that's 4 out of 36
extra blotting rolls. Nevertheless, I still think that the gammons
are worth it.

---
Tim Chow

On Monday, September 26, 2022 at 1:20:28 PM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
> and the fourth fur is not so obvious.
>
> XGID=-EBcCBB-a--------A-cbcc---:3:-1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O O O | +---+
> | | | O O O O | | 8 |
> | | | O O O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X O X |
> | | | X X X O X X |
> | O | | X X X O X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 60 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 8, O own cube
> X to play 44

Loosely speaking in these situations I have:

1) If the gammon is very unlikely, play safe (dmp)
2) If the gammon is highly likely already, play safe (dmp)
3) If the gammon is somewhere in the messy middle ground peeling is hugely favored to be correct

In this problem it's tough - given Tim's noting the large difference of the immediate shot leaving numbers (coupled with the opp's board already being strong enough that being hit is very near death). It's not only the immediate shot leaving numbers though, there are some other rolls that while they play safe perhaps this turn they sure are fugly and lead to more shots after taking a checker off now. So idk what I'd do otb, it would most likely depend on who/what I'm playing.

Stick

On 9/27/2022 7:22 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Monday, September 26, 2022 at 1:20:28 PM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
>> and the fourth fur is not so obvious.
>>
>> XGID=-EBcCBB-a--------A-cbcc---:3:-1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
>>
>> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
>> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>> | X | | O O O O | +---+
>> | | | O O O O | | 8 |
>> | | | O O O | +---+
>> | | | |
>> | | | |
>> | |BAR| |
>> | | | X |
>> | | | X |
>> | | | X O X |
>> | | | X X X O X X |
>> | O | | X X X O X X |
>> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>> Pip count X: 60 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
>> Cube: 8, O own cube
>> X to play 44
>
> Loosely speaking in these situations I have:
>
> 1) If the gammon is very unlikely, play safe (dmp)
> 2) If the gammon is highly likely already, play safe (dmp)
> 3) If the gammon is somewhere in the messy middle ground peeling is hugely favored to be correct
>
> In this problem it's tough - given Tim's noting the large difference of the immediate shot leaving numbers (coupled with the opp's board already being strong enough that being hit is very near death). It's not only the immediate shot leaving numbers though, there are some other rolls that while they play safe perhaps this turn they sure are fugly and lead to more shots after taking a checker off now. So idk what I'd do otb, it would most likely depend on who/what I'm playing.

This was from an online Chouette with the opponent XGR++, if that helps
your decision.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

On Tuesday, September 27, 2022 at 9:21:34 PM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 9/27/2022 7:22 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> > On Monday, September 26, 2022 at 1:20:28 PM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
> >> and the fourth fur is not so obvious.
> >>
> >> XGID=-EBcCBB-a--------A-cbcc---:3:-1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
> >>
> >> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> >> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> >> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> >> | X | | O O O O | +---+
> >> | | | O O O O | | 8 |
> >> | | | O O O | +---+
> >> | | | |
> >> | | | |
> >> | |BAR| |
> >> | | | X |
> >> | | | X |
> >> | | | X O X |
> >> | | | X X X O X X |
> >> | O | | X X X O X X |
> >> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> >> Pip count X: 60 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
> >> Cube: 8, O own cube
> >> X to play 44
> >
> > Loosely speaking in these situations I have:
> >
> > 1) If the gammon is very unlikely, play safe (dmp)
> > 2) If the gammon is highly likely already, play safe (dmp)
> > 3) If the gammon is somewhere in the messy middle ground peeling is hugely favored to be correct
> >
> > In this problem it's tough - given Tim's noting the large difference of the immediate shot leaving numbers (coupled with the opp's board already being strong enough that being hit is very near death). It's not only the immediate shot leaving numbers though, there are some other rolls that while they play safe perhaps this turn they sure are fugly and lead to more shots after taking a checker off now. So idk what I'd do otb, it would most likely depend on who/what I'm playing.
> This was from an online Chouette with the opponent XGR++, if that helps
> your decision.
>
> --
> Ah....Clem
> The future is fun, the future is fair.

It might help if I understood how a chouette was playing against ++?

Stick

On 9/28/2022 11:14 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

>
> It might help if I understood how a chouette was playing against ++?

Well, it's not quite a chouette since we don't each have our own cube,
but it's the facebook group Humans vs XG.

Some interesting positions crop up, the participants vote on the move
and cube decision. Neilkaz and Paul Lamford are there, so it's not just
patzers.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Sometimes the safer play wins more gammons because it wins more games.
That's not the case here - bearing on off wins a few more gammons, but
not enough to justify giving up three percentage points of GWC.

Not a lot of equity at stake, and if you got this one wrong you're in
good company.

XGID=-EBcCBB-a--------A-cbcc---:3:-1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 8 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X O X |
| | | X X X O X X |
| O | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 60 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 8, O own cube
X to play 44

1. Rollout¹ 17/1 eq:+0.952
Player: 85.61% (G:30.11% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 14.39% (G:0.27% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.948..+0.955) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 17/5 4/Off eq:+0.927 (-0.024)
Player: 82.52% (G:35.23% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 17.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.924..+0.931) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

On Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 3:17:38 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:
> Sometimes the safer play wins more gammons because it wins more games.
> That's not the case here - bearing on off wins a few more gammons, but
> not enough to justify giving up three percentage points of GWC.
>
> Not a lot of equity at stake, and if you got this one wrong you're in
> good company.
> XGID=-EBcCBB-a--------A-cbcc---:3:-1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O O O | +---+
> | | | O O O O | | 8 |
> | | | O O O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X O X |
> | | | X X X O X X |
> | O | | X X X O X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 60 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 8, O own cube
> X to play 44

These positions are more interesting when there's more equity at stake.
Any type of position can be made difficult by presenting a position where two
plays are nearly tied.

Paul

On Wednesday, September 28, 2022 at 12:22:06 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Monday, September 26, 2022 at 1:20:28 PM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
> > and the fourth fur is not so obvious.
> >
> > XGID=-EBcCBB-a--------A-cbcc---:3:-1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X | | O O O O | +---+
> > | | | O O O O | | 8 |
> > | | | O O O | +---+
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X O X |
> > | | | X X X O X X |
> > | O | | X X X O X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 60 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 8, O own cube
> > X to play 44
> Loosely speaking in these situations I have:
>
> 1) If the gammon is very unlikely, play safe (dmp)
> 2) If the gammon is highly likely already, play safe (dmp)
> 3) If the gammon is somewhere in the messy middle ground peeling is hugely favored to be correct
>
> In this problem it's tough - given Tim's noting the large difference of the immediate shot leaving numbers (coupled with the opp's board already being strong enough that being hit is very near death). It's not only the immediate shot leaving numbers though, there are some other rolls that while they play safe perhaps this turn they sure are fugly and lead to more shots after taking a checker off now. So idk what I'd do otb, it would most likely depend on who/what I'm playing.
>
> Stick

I think that, if you can't distinguish between the plays, you're more likely to play risky against weak opposition because cube handling in the post-hit game might be quite difficult so
there's an extra source of equity in the possibility that they will play badly if they hit.

Paul

On Wednesday, September 28, 2022 at 8:27:44 PM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 9/28/2022 11:14 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
>
> >
> > It might help if I understood how a chouette was playing against ++?
> Well, it's not quite a chouette since we don't each have our own cube,
> but it's the facebook group Humans vs XG.
>
> Some interesting positions crop up, the participants vote on the move
> and cube decision. Neilkaz and Paul Lamford are there, so it's not just
> patzers.
> --
> Ah....Clem
> The future is fun, the future is fair.

It's not a chouette at all since the order of people playing doesn't make a difference either.

Stick

On Friday, September 30, 2022 at 12:39:49 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Wednesday, September 28, 2022 at 8:27:44 PM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
> > On 9/28/2022 11:14 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > It might help if I understood how a chouette was playing against ++?
> > Well, it's not quite a chouette since we don't each have our own cube,
> > but it's the facebook group Humans vs XG.
> >
> > Some interesting positions crop up, the participants vote on the move
> > and cube decision. Neilkaz and Paul Lamford are there, so it's not just
> > patzers.
> > --
> > Ah....Clem
> > The future is fun, the future is fair.
> It's not a chouette at all since the order of people playing doesn't make a difference either.
>
> Stick

Well, I think we find the concept of a bunch of people (with nothing better to do) playing on the same side
and deciding on their plays by majority vote.
Seems a bit chouettish to me.

Paul

On Friday, September 30, 2022 at 1:26:59 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Friday, September 30, 2022 at 12:39:49 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
> > On Wednesday, September 28, 2022 at 8:27:44 PM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
> > > On 9/28/2022 11:14 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > > It might help if I understood how a chouette was playing against ++?
> > > Well, it's not quite a chouette since we don't each have our own cube,
> > > but it's the facebook group Humans vs XG.
> > >
> > > Some interesting positions crop up, the participants vote on the move
> > > and cube decision. Neilkaz and Paul Lamford are there, so it's not just
> > > patzers.
> > > --
> > > Ah....Clem
> > > The future is fun, the future is fair.
> > It's not a chouette at all since the order of people playing doesn't make a difference either.
> >
> > Stick
> Well, I think we find the concept of a bunch of people (with nothing better to do) playing on the same side
> and deciding on their plays by majority vote.
> Seems a bit chouettish to me.
>
> Paul

Chouettes mainly don't have consultation before the cube is turned. Chouettes everyone has their own cube. (extras!) In a chouette votes are not weighed equally. In a chouette the order of players can matter a lot in making decisions. The vast majority of chouettes are played for money. It might look like a chouette in the sense of "backgammon with 3 or more people" but that's around where it stops.

Stick

On 9/30/2022 2:35 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

> Chouettes mainly don't have consultation before the cube is turned. Chouettes everyone has their own cube. (extras!) In a chouette votes are not weighed equally. In a chouette the order of players can matter a lot in making decisions. The vast majority of chouettes are played for money. It might look like a chouette in the sense of "backgammon with 3 or more people" but that's around where it stops.

I have to agree with Stick here. When ah_clem referred to a
chouette, it gave me a totally different impression from what
it turns out was going on (except that I had guessed that no
money was changing hands).

---
Tim Chow