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interests / rec.games.backgammon / An excellent roll; how do you play it?

SubjectAuthor
* An excellent roll; how do you play it?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: An excellent roll; how do you play it?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: An excellent roll; how do you play it?atila...@gmail.com

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An excellent roll; how do you play it?

<thekgn$26poo$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: An excellent roll; how do you play it?
Date: Mon, 3 Oct 2022 08:28:07 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 3 Oct 2022 12:28 UTC

XGID=---a-CCBB---bE--a-acabbb--:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: An excellent roll; how do you play it?

<thjt3u$2vn7j$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: An excellent roll; how do you play it?
Date: Wed, 5 Oct 2022 08:25:34 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 5 Oct 2022 12:25 UTC

XGID=---a-CCBB---bE--a-acabbb--:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

I opted to attack here with 7/3*(2), but XG says that's a massive
blunder. X is still a bit behind in the pip count after this roll,
and a surer way to win the game is to make the five-prime. It's
true that attempting to blitz with 8/3(2) 7/3*(2) will win more
gammons, but it won't be that many gammons because most of O's
checkers are already home or nearly home. O will likely have
multiple chances to scramble home the last checker, and loose hits
will be dangerous because of O's strong board.

1. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 13/5 eq:+0.833
Player: 73.17% (G:5.46% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 26.83% (G:4.48% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.821..+0.844) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9(4) eq:+0.664 (-0.169)
Player: 68.59% (G:5.52% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 31.41% (G:6.13% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.656..+0.672) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 7/3*(2) eq:+0.643 (-0.190)
Player: 67.42% (G:6.96% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 32.58% (G:4.64% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.634..+0.652) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 7/3*(2) eq:+0.641 (-0.192)
Player: 67.73% (G:9.48% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 32.27% (G:4.45% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.636..+0.646) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: An excellent roll; how do you play it?

<3d11fdb3-0fd1-41ab-93f7-64bb35c34397n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: An excellent roll; how do you play it?
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Fri, 7 Oct 2022 20:13 UTC

5 Ekim 2022 Çarşamba tarihinde saat 15:25:36 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=---a-CCBB---bE--a-acabbb--:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | X | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X |
> | O X X | | X X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 128 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 44
> I opted to attack here with 7/3*(2), but XG says that's a massive
> blunder. X is still a bit behind in the pip count after this roll,
> and a surer way to win the game is to make the five-prime. It's
> true that attempting to blitz with 8/3(2) 7/3*(2) will win more
> gammons, but it won't be that many gammons because most of O's
> checkers are already home or nearly home. O will likely have
> multiple chances to scramble home the last checker, and loose hits
> will be dangerous because of O's strong board.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 13/5 eq:+0.833
> Player: 73.17% (G:5.46% B:0.15%)
> Opponent: 26.83% (G:4.48% B:0.06%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.821..+0.844) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/9(4) eq:+0.664 (-0.169)
> Player: 68.59% (G:5.52% B:0.19%)
> Opponent: 31.41% (G:6.13% B:0.06%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.656..+0.672) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 7/3*(2) eq:+0.643 (-0.190)
> Player: 67.42% (G:6.96% B:0.21%)
> Opponent: 32.58% (G:4.64% B:0.06%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.634..+0.652) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 7/3*(2) eq:+0.641 (-0.192)
> Player: 67.73% (G:9.48% B:0.20%)
> Opponent: 32.27% (G:4.45% B:0.06%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.636..+0.646) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
Leaving the opponent behind a prime that he can only escape with 6-1 is a very strong formation. Most of these positions result in double/pass.

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