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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Break anchor or dump?

SubjectAuthor
* Break anchor or dump?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Break anchor or dump?Timothy Chow

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Break anchor or dump?

<th9su9$1cl6a$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Break anchor or dump?
Date: Sat, 1 Oct 2022 13:21:14 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 1 Oct 2022 17:21 UTC

XGID=-AAbCBB-BB------b--ccBbc--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| X X | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Break anchor or dump?

<thfas4$29sp4$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Break anchor or dump?
Date: Mon, 3 Oct 2022 14:49:40 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 3 Oct 2022 18:49 UTC

XGID=-AAbCBB-BB------b--ccBbc--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| X X | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

Deciding whether to break anchor in a mutual holding game isn't
usually considered a "pay now or pay later" decision, but there
are some similarities. X can volunteer a direct shot now with
21/18 21/15, and will be in great shape if he is missed (probably
able to double). Or he can sit tight, cover a blot with 8/5 8/2,
and hope that he can cruise home to a win without ever leaving
a shot.

According to the rollout, the decision isn't close. X's broken
five-prime is a great asset that he shouldn't discard lightly.
Unless O rolls her 44 joker or the hit-and-split 42, X will still
have an okay position even if he is hit, because O will still
have work to do to escape her back checkers.

1. Rollout¹ 21/18 21/15 eq:+0.526
Player: 64.57% (G:10.81% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 35.43% (G:10.24% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.514..+0.537) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/2 eq:+0.308 (-0.217)
Player: 58.36% (G:14.60% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 41.64% (G:9.18% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.298..+0.319) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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