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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Another "Pottle or not?" problem

SubjectAuthor
* Another "Pottle or not?" problemTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Another "Pottle or not?" problemTimothy Chow

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Another "Pottle or not?" problem

<thmh8r$3bpvi$1@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=10111&group=rec.games.backgammon#10111

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!aioe.org!eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Another "Pottle or not?" problem
Date: Thu, 6 Oct 2022 08:21:45 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 6 Oct 2022 12:21 UTC

XGID=--a-BaD-BB--bD-b-b-cb-b-A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Another "Pottle or not?" problem

<thrqij$6drv$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Another "Pottle or not?" problem
Date: Sat, 8 Oct 2022 08:31:14 -0400
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In-Reply-To: <thmh8r$3bpvi$1@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 8 Oct 2022 12:31 UTC

XGID=--a-BaD-BB--bD-b-b-cb-b-A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

I think this one is difficult, especially if you compare it with the
variant below. In the variant, O's 4's are duplicated after 24/16,
and the rollout slightly favors 24/16 despite the extra gammon wins
afforded by 13/5*. In the actual position, though, the rollout says
that 24/16 is a whopper.

1. Rollout¹ 13/5* eq:-0.192
Player: 46.49% (G:14.62% B:0.84%)
Opponent: 53.51% (G:19.32% B:0.87%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.205..-0.178) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:-0.297 (-0.105)
Player: 44.57% (G:6.84% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 55.43% (G:17.78% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.310..-0.284) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--BaD-BB--bD-b-b-cb-b-A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:-0.193
Player: 47.41% (G:8.34% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 52.59% (G:18.36% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.199..-0.186) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/5* eq:-0.217 (-0.024)
Player: 46.06% (G:14.83% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 53.94% (G:20.40% B:0.96%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.224..-0.209) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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