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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 7-away/7-away recube action

SubjectAuthor
* 7-away/7-away recube actionTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: 7-away/7-away recube actionTimothy Chow

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7-away/7-away recube action

<thucb9$g1mj$1@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=10122&group=rec.games.backgammon#10122

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 7-away/7-away recube action
Date: Sun, 9 Oct 2022 07:46:48 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 9 Oct 2022 11:46 UTC

Note that X is on the bar.

XGID=-dDBCBa---A--A--babbaA-b-A:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O |
| O O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X X O | +---+
| | | X X X X O | | 2 |
| X | | O X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 176 X-O: 0-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 7-away/7-away recube action

<ti3qdv$13tms$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 7-away/7-away recube action
Date: Tue, 11 Oct 2022 09:17:50 -0400
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In-Reply-To: <thucb9$g1mj$1@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 11 Oct 2022 13:17 UTC

XGID=-dDBCBa---A--A--babbaA-b-A:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O |
| O O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X X O | +---+
| | | X X X X O | | 2 |
| X | | O X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 176 X-O: 0-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

According to the rollouts below, this is a redouble for money,
but ATS, it's a big blunder to redouble. A lot of X's advantage
comes from his gammon wins, and redoubling to 4 decreases his
gammon value.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 58.73% (G:39.73% B:13.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.27% (G:9.50% B:0.75%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.81% (G:38.79% B:26.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.19% (G:8.33% B:1.19%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.672
Redouble/Take: +0.480 (-0.192)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.328)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 26.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.019 (+0.653..+0.690)
Confidence Double: ± 0.027 (+0.453..+0.507)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=-dDBCBa---A--A--babbaA-b-A:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O |
| O O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X X O | +---+
| | | X X X X O | | 2 |
| X | | O X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 176 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 59.00% (G:39.51% B:9.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.00% (G:9.48% B:0.66%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.80% (G:39.54% B:9.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.20% (G:9.52% B:0.68%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.718 (-0.038)
Redouble/Take: +0.756
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.244)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.705..+0.731)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.732..+0.780)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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