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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?

SubjectAuthor
* What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?Timothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?Stick Rice
  `- Re: Rollout: What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?Timothy Chow

1
What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?

<thjt7e$2vn7j$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?
Date: Wed, 5 Oct 2022 08:27:26 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 5 Oct 2022 12:27 UTC

Answer: Nothing. He insists on calling it the 22pt anchor.

XGID=----aBD-B-B-dCb--c-cb-B---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?
Date: Fri, 7 Oct 2022 21:43:02 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 8 Oct 2022 01:43 UTC

XGID=----aBD-B-B-dCb--c-cb-B---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

XG runs off the anchor. In part, this is because the 3pt anchor is
not as big an asset as a higher anchor---but see also the variants.

1. Rollout¹ 22/13 eq:+0.011
Player: 49.88% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 50.12% (G:9.79% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.005..+0.016) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4* eq:-0.097 (-0.108)
Player: 46.24% (G:15.24% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 53.76% (G:11.41% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.104..-0.090) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=----aBE-B--BdBb--c-cbB----:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/4* eq:+0.034
Player: 48.84% (G:15.94% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 51.16% (G:8.18% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.027..+0.041) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:-0.047 (-0.081)
Player: 48.15% (G:10.66% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 51.85% (G:9.45% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.054..-0.040) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=----aBE-BB--dBb--c-cbB----:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:+0.088
Player: 51.72% (G:13.36% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 48.28% (G:9.07% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.082..+0.094) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/15 6/4* eq:+0.048 (-0.040)
Player: 50.88% (G:15.80% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 49.12% (G:13.55% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.040..+0.056) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 10 Oct 2022 19:09 UTC

> 1. Rollout¹ 3/13 eq:+0.011
> Player: 49.88% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
> Opponent: 50.12% (G:9.79% B:0.32%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.005..+0.016) - [100.0%]

I fixed the rollout results for you.

Stick

Re: Rollout: What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?
Date: Mon, 10 Oct 2022 17:50:42 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 10 Oct 2022 21:50 UTC

On 10/10/2022 3:09 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
>
>
>> 1. Rollout¹ 3/13 eq:+0.011
>> Player: 49.88% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
>> Opponent: 50.12% (G:9.79% B:0.32%)
>> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.005..+0.016) - [100.0%]
>
> I fixed the rollout results for you.

I actually recall having seen people write 3/12 for this play,
though I can't remember off the top of my head where I saw it.
(That is, both players' plays, including the opponent's, are
notated using the numbering of the points from the player's side.)

---
Tim Chow

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