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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Too many fives

SubjectAuthor
* Too many fivesTimothy Chow
`* Rollout: Too many fivesTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Too many fivesStick Rice

1
Too many fives

<ti6cv7$1ghe0$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Too many fives
Date: Wed, 12 Oct 2022 08:46:29 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 12 Oct 2022 12:46 UTC

XGID=aBB-BBC----Bd---bbAe-A-a--:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O | +---+
| O O | | O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 103 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Too many fives

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Too many fives
Date: Fri, 14 Oct 2022 08:41:09 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 14 Oct 2022 12:41 UTC

XGID=aBB-BBC----Bd---bbAe-A-a--:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O | +---+
| O O | | O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 103 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 55

What's the DMP play? XG marginally favors the pedestrian 18/8 11/6(2)
at DMP, but the bold slotting play 18/3 11/6 is its overwhelming
preference for money. Closing the board would all but lock up the
gammon, and even if O hits from the bar, her weak board means that X
will usually not be too unhappy about getting hit.

1. Rollout¹ 18/3 11/6 eq:+1.285
Player: 85.43% (G:65.90% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 14.57% (G:2.21% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.278..+1.291) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/8 11/1 eq:+1.201 (-0.084)
Player: 85.17% (G:58.12% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 14.83% (G:1.97% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.194..+1.208) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/8 11/6(2) eq:+1.188 (-0.096)
Player: 85.71% (G:55.35% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 14.29% (G:1.40% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.181..+1.196) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Too many fives

<5eb5a36f-0a5e-4966-9126-8852e01fbc3en@googlegroups.com>

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Date: Fri, 14 Oct 2022 12:36:43 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: Rollout: Too many fives
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Fri, 14 Oct 2022 19:36 UTC

On Friday, October 14, 2022 at 8:41:13 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=aBB-BBC----Bd---bbAe-A-a--:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O X | | O X O | +---+
> | O O | | O | | 2 |
> | | | O | +---+
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | O | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 103 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 55
> What's the DMP play? XG marginally favors the pedestrian 18/8 11/6(2)
> at DMP, but the bold slotting play 18/3 11/6 is its overwhelming
> preference for money. Closing the board would all but lock up the
> gammon, and even if O hits from the bar, her weak board means that X
> will usually not be too unhappy about getting hit.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 18/3 11/6 eq:+1.285
> Player: 85.43% (G:65.90% B:0.17%)
> Opponent: 14.57% (G:2.21% B:0.12%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.278..+1.291) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 18/8 11/1 eq:+1.201 (-0.084)
> Player: 85.17% (G:58.12% B:0.15%)
> Opponent: 14.83% (G:1.97% B:0.08%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.194..+1.208) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 18/8 11/6(2) eq:+1.188 (-0.096)
> Player: 85.71% (G:55.35% B:0.17%)
> Opponent: 14.29% (G:1.40% B:0.05%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.181..+1.196) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I'm not sure why we're bringing up DMP here but the difference in plays is ..003 with the best play being 8, 6(2) which comes in third in your rollout.

Stick

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