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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit and then...?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit and then...?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Hit and then...?ah...Clem
`- Re: Hit and then...?Timothy Chow

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Hit and then...?

<tiej8c$2q1bu$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit and then...?
Date: Sat, 15 Oct 2022 11:22:51 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 15 Oct 2022 15:22 UTC

XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit and then...?

<tieppb$2ott5$2@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit and then...?
Date: Sat, 15 Oct 2022 13:13:29 -0400
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In-Reply-To: <tiej8c$2q1bu$2@dont-email.me>
 by: ah...Clem - Sat, 15 Oct 2022 17:13 UTC

On 10/15/2022 11:22 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X     X     O    |   | O     X        X |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  | X                |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O | X                |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X  O |   | X              O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 166  O: 173 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 63

Ahead in the race, so making the defensive bar point seems less valuable
than usual. I'm not seeing the utility of making the fifteen point, or
at least it's not as useful as the other options. So, I'll hit on the
bar point and make the four point anchor. 24/21 13/7*.

Re: Hit and then...?

<tijkqj$3f1ev$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit and then...?
Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2022 09:20:19 -0400
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In-Reply-To: <tiej8c$2q1bu$2@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 17 Oct 2022 13:20 UTC

XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

After hitting, I decided to play this as a blitz, and brought down
another builder with 13/10. Apparently, XG regards that plan as
too ambitious. X has only a one-point board after all, and he can
make a good anchor with 24/21. But see also the variant, where X
cannot anchor, and 24/21 and 13/10 are tied.

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7* eq:+0.482
Player: 60.52% (G:19.20% B:1.06%)
Opponent: 39.48% (G:8.88% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.467..+0.497) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7* eq:+0.387 (-0.095)
Player: 58.15% (G:20.81% B:1.38%)
Opponent: 41.85% (G:11.30% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.371..+0.403) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/18 13/7* eq:+0.368 (-0.114)
Player: 58.50% (G:18.42% B:1.13%)
Opponent: 41.50% (G:11.07% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.352..+0.385) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-eA---A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7* eq:+0.412
Player: 59.25% (G:18.52% B:1.15%)
Opponent: 40.75% (G:10.29% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.404..+0.421) - [88.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7* eq:+0.405 (-0.008)
Player: 58.74% (G:20.59% B:1.28%)
Opponent: 41.26% (G:10.82% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.396..+0.414) - [11.2%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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