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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Attack or prime?

SubjectAuthor
* Attack or prime?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Attack or prime?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Attack or prime?Stick Rice

1
Attack or prime?

<tiosbc$1oe7$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Attack or prime?
Date: Wed, 19 Oct 2022 08:59:28 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 19 Oct 2022 12:59 UTC

XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---AA--acBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Attack or prime?

<tiu4s7$klje$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Attack or prime?
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2022 08:55:35 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 21 Oct 2022 12:55 UTC

XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---AA--acBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

I think this one is difficult. 8/2* 6/2 gains a tempo to pick up
O's second blot, and it is XG's play at gammon go. But the other
plan, of making the 8pt and getting ready to make the 5pt next, is
also attractive. XG favors 15/11 14/8, but see the variant below
where it narrowly prefers 8/2* 6/2.

1. Rollout¹ 15/11 14/8 eq:+0.692
Player: 68.99% (G:6.22% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 31.01% (G:11.42% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.681..+0.703) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.611 (-0.081)
Player: 66.19% (G:10.50% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 33.81% (G:13.78% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.602..+0.621) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Gammon go
---------

XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---AA--acBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:1:1:2:10

Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 70 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.561
Player: 65.71% (G:12.36% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 34.29% (G:18.77% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.557..+0.566) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/11 14/8 eq:+0.520 (-0.041)
Player: 68.39% (G:7.61% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 31.61% (G:15.91% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.515..+0.525) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---A--AacBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.621
Player: 66.45% (G:10.51% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 33.55% (G:13.86% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.611..+0.631) - [99.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 17/13 14/8 eq:+0.601 (-0.020)
Player: 67.65% (G:6.56% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 32.35% (G:10.96% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.591..+0.611) - [0.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Attack or prime?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Attack or prime?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
Injection-Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2022 18:09:32 +0000
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 by: Stick Rice - Fri, 21 Oct 2022 18:09 UTC

On Friday, October 21, 2022 at 8:55:37 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---AA--acBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O X O O O O |
> | | | O X O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X X X |
> | X X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 133 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> I think this one is difficult. 8/2* 6/2 gains a tempo to pick up
> O's second blot, and it is XG's play at gammon go. But the other
> plan, of making the 8pt and getting ready to make the 5pt next, is
> also attractive. XG favors 15/11 14/8, but see the variant below
> where it narrowly prefers 8/2* 6/2.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 15/11 14/8 eq:+0.692
> Player: 68.99% (G:6.22% B:0.20%)
> Opponent: 31.01% (G:11.42% B:0.06%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.681..+0.703) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.611 (-0.081)
> Player: 66.19% (G:10.50% B:0.30%)
> Opponent: 33.81% (G:13.78% B:0.22%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.602..+0.621) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---------
> Gammon go
> ---------
>
> XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---AA--acBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:1:1:2:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O X O O O O |
> | | | O X O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X X X |
> | X X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 133 O: 70 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> 1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.561
> Player: 65.71% (G:12.36% B:0.48%)
> Opponent: 34.29% (G:18.77% B:0.15%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.557..+0.566) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 15/11 14/8 eq:+0.520 (-0.041)
> Player: 68.39% (G:7.61% B:0.34%)
> Opponent: 31.61% (G:15.91% B:0.07%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.515..+0.525) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---A--AacBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O X O O O O |
> | | | O X O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X X X |
> | X X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 135 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> 1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.621
> Player: 66.45% (G:10.51% B:0.29%)
> Opponent: 33.55% (G:13.86% B:0.16%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.611..+0.631) - [99.6%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 17/13 14/8 eq:+0.601 (-0.020)
> Player: 67.65% (G:6.56% B:0.18%)
> Opponent: 32.35% (G:10.96% B:0.08%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.591..+0.611) - [0.4%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

XG isn't preparing to make the 5pt next, XG is preparing to send over a wildly efficient cube (some takes, some passes) on all but six of the opponent's upcoming rolls.

Stick

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