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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Hit and then...?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit and then...?Timothy Chow
+* Re: Hit and then...?Stick Rice
|`- Re: Hit and then...?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Hit and then...?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Hit and then...?peps...@gmail.com

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Hit and then...?

<tiu50e$klje$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit and then...?
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2022 08:57:50 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 21 Oct 2022 12:57 UTC

XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit and then...?

<7bfc66c8-f705-41fe-9de2-2b195e95deedn@googlegroups.com>

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Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2022 11:10:25 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: Hit and then...?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Fri, 21 Oct 2022 18:10 UTC

On Friday, October 21, 2022 at 8:57:52 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O O X X |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O O X | | X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Might want to try posting this again as a new thread.

Stick

Re: Hit and then...?

<tivosf$rgl1$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit and then...?
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2022 23:43:11 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 22 Oct 2022 03:43 UTC

On 10/21/2022 2:10 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> Might want to try posting this again as a new thread.

I did. It's probably your newsreader outsmarting itself.

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit and then...?

<tj3ccl$176ht$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit and then...?
Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2022 08:34:28 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 23 Oct 2022 12:34 UTC

XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

After 13/9*, continuing with 9/3 looked natural to me. Of course I
considered the double hit 22/16* 13/9*, but leaving five blots strewn
around the board with no structure besides the points I started the
game with seemed too loose. But it's also true that X really wants to
leap the prime and doesn't want O to make her 9pt. The double hit does
lose more gammons but the rollout below says that it wins more than
enough extra games to make up for that.

1. Rollout¹ 22/16* 13/9* eq:-0.511
Player: 38.75% (G:10.12% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 61.25% (G:22.06% B:1.63%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.528..-0.493) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/3 eq:-0.650 (-0.140)
Player: 33.38% (G:9.35% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 66.62% (G:17.34% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.664..-0.637) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Hit and then...?

<38b0b122-0371-42d0-aca3-9b293308431cn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Hit and then...?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 23 Oct 2022 17:06 UTC

On Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 1:34:31 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O O X X |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O O X | | X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> After 13/9*, continuing with 9/3 looked natural to me. Of course I
> considered the double hit 22/16* 13/9*, but leaving five blots strewn
> around the board with no structure besides the points I started the
> game with seemed too loose. But it's also true that X really wants to
> leap the prime and doesn't want O to make her 9pt. The double hit does
> lose more gammons but the rollout below says that it wins more than
> enough extra games to make up for that.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 22/16* 13/9* eq:-0.511
> Player: 38.75% (G:10.12% B:0.50%)
> Opponent: 61.25% (G:22.06% B:1.63%)
> Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.528..-0.493) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/3 eq:-0.650 (-0.140)
> Player: 33.38% (G:9.35% B:0.44%)
> Opponent: 66.62% (G:17.34% B:0.82%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.664..-0.637) - [0.0%]
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

From your title, I assumed that 22/16* was the mandatory hit, and the four was the problem.
I'm sure I would have got this problem right.
So we don't mind losing a few more gammons. Does this make this a should-have-used-the-DMP-Rule
situation?

Paul

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