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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Another early(ish) game checker play

SubjectAuthor
* Another early(ish) game checker playTimothy Chow
+* Re: Another early(ish) game checker playah....Clem
|`- Re: Another early(ish) game checker playStick Rice
`- Rollout: Another early(ish) game checker playTimothy Chow

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Another early(ish) game checker play

<tj8i23$1vus6$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Another early(ish) game checker play
Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2022 07:41:55 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 25 Oct 2022 11:41 UTC

XGID=----a-E-D---dE-A-cadb-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Re: Another early(ish) game checker play

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Another early(ish) game checker play
Date: Wed, 26 Oct 2022 10:47:13 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Wed, 26 Oct 2022 14:47 UTC

On 10/25/2022 7:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=----a-E-D---dE-A-cadb-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X     X     O  O |   | O  O             |
>  | X           O    |   | O  O             |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  | X                |   | O                |
>  | X                |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X     O          |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 142  O: 138 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 41

X is outboarded so hitting loose seems like the wrong idea. Race is
very close. I'm not sure Pottle's law applies if you're already in the
outfield, but I'll apply it here and play 15/9.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Another early(ish) game checker play

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Subject: Re: Another early(ish) game checker play
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 26 Oct 2022 19:49 UTC

On Wednesday, October 26, 2022 at 10:47:15 AM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 10/25/2022 7:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=----a-E-D---dE-A-cadb-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X X O O | | O O |
> > | X O | | O O |
> > | X O | | O |
> > | X | | O |
> > | X | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X | | X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 142 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 41
> X is outboarded so hitting loose seems like the wrong idea. Race is
> very close. I'm not sure Pottle's law applies if you're already in the
> outfield, but I'll apply it here and play 15/9.
>
> --
> Ah....Clem
> The future is fun, the future is fair.

Illegal and oddly enough, worse than the legal play.

Stick

Rollout: Another early(ish) game checker play

<tjdu2i$2ood7$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Another early(ish) game checker play
Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2022 08:37:37 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 27 Oct 2022 12:37 UTC

XGID=----a-E-D---dE-A-cadb-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

Congratulations to ah_clem for finding the bot play (even though ah_clem
mistakenly typed 15/9 rather than 15/10). OTB, I considered most of the
plays displayed in the rollout below *except* 15/10. I eventually
decided to hit, but the main non-hitting alternative I pondered was
15/11 6/5. But 15/10 leaves fewer shots (14 instead of 15, none of
which are double-hitting rolls) and blots, and duplicates O's sixes.

1. Rollout¹ 15/10 eq:-0.306
Player: 40.96% (G:2.95% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 59.04% (G:8.96% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.315..-0.297) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4* 4/3 eq:-0.350 (-0.044)
Player: 42.07% (G:4.90% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 57.93% (G:15.05% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.360..-0.341) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 15/11 6/5 eq:-0.427 (-0.121)
Player: 38.99% (G:3.06% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 61.01% (G:10.29% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.438..-0.416) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.434 (-0.128)
Player: 38.88% (G:3.58% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 61.12% (G:11.39% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.444..-0.423) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/3 eq:-0.442 (-0.136)
Player: 38.62% (G:3.74% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 61.38% (G:11.73% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.452..-0.432) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 15/11 8/7 eq:-0.457 (-0.151)
Player: 37.64% (G:2.96% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 62.36% (G:10.07% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.466..-0.447) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 15/14 6/2 eq:-0.462 (-0.156)
Player: 37.64% (G:2.76% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 62.36% (G:10.83% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.470..-0.454) - [0.0%]

8. Rollout¹ 15/14 8/4* eq:-0.485 (-0.180)
Player: 38.74% (G:4.84% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 61.26% (G:17.28% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.495..-0.476) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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