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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Pay now, pay how?

Pay now, pay how?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Pay now, pay how?
Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2022 08:52:57 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 1 Nov 2022 12:52 UTC

XGID=-CBBCbC--B--------bbbbbc--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 61 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Re: Pay now, pay how?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Pay now, pay how?
Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2022 19:45:28 -0400
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by: ah....Clem - Tue, 1 Nov 2022 23:45 UTC

On 11/1/2022 8:52 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-CBBCbC--B--------bbbbbc--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> |                O |   | O O O O O    | +---+
> |                O |   | O O O O O    | | 2 |
> |                  |   |             O    | +---+
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   | X     X        X |
> |          X       |   | X O X X X X |
> |          X       |   | X O X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 61 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 54

I'm only seeing two legal plays so I expect I'm 50% to get it right. Can
I perform better than a shaved monkey flipping a coin?

Playing two off the six minimizes shots but is hard to clean up. 9/4 6/2
exposes four more shots, but when missed X is almost gin. That seems to
be the way to go.'

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Pay now, pay how?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Pay now, pay how?
Date: Thu, 3 Nov 2022 08:57:37 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 3 Nov 2022 12:57 UTC

XGID=-CBBCbC--B--------bbbbbc--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

This decision isn't close. Even though O's offensive structure is
as strong as it could be, the play that minimizes immediate shots
(6/2 6/1) leaves too much future shot jeopardy. Failing to bring
one more checker into X's home board also means that X will lose
slightly more gammons when things go poorly.

I did find a variant where the play that minimizes immediate shots
is slightly preferred by XG at gammon go, but it's a bit artificial.

1. Rollout¹ 9/4 6/2 eq:+0.117
Player: 59.12% (G:0.88% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 40.88% (G:3.16% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.115..+0.118) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:+0.006 (-0.110)
Player: 55.22% (G:0.76% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 44.78% (G:5.10% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.003..+0.009) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBBBBbC---B------bbbbbc--:1:-1:1:56:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | O X X X X X |
| X X | | O X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 73 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 56

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 7/2 eq:-0.007
Player: 53.09% (G:0.40% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 46.91% (G:2.92% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.009..-0.004) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2 7/1 eq:-0.044 (-0.038)
Player: 53.20% (G:0.68% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 46.80% (G:5.48% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.048..-0.041) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------------------
Variant (gammon go)
-------------------

XGID=-BBBBBbC---B------bbbbbc--:0:0:1:56:0:1:1:2:10

Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | O X X X X X |
| X X | | O X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 73 O: 94 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 56

1. Rollout¹ 7/2 7/1 eq:+0.067
Player: 52.73% (G:0.61% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 47.27% (G:4.00% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.065..+0.069) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/5 7/2 eq:+0.060 (-0.007)
Player: 52.62% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 47.38% (G:2.82% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.058..+0.061) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
Pay now, pay how?	Timothy Chow
Re: Pay now, pay how?	ah....Clem
Rollout: Pay now, pay how?	Timothy Chow