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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Which hit?

SubjectAuthor
* Which hit?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Which hit?ah...Clem
`- Rollout: Which hit?Timothy Chow

1
Which hit?

<tk0dt9$1f8r4$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Which hit?
Date: Thu, 3 Nov 2022 08:58:16 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 3 Nov 2022 12:58 UTC

XGID=--aBA-D-a-A-dD---d-e----BA:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | X | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 169 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

Re: Which hit?

<tk3jus$1ie4u$3@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Which hit?
Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2022 13:59:57 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Fri, 4 Nov 2022 17:59 UTC

On 11/3/2022 8:58 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--aBA-D-a-A-dD---d-e----BA:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O    |   | O              X |
>  | X           O    |   | O              X |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  |                  | X | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O                |   | X        X       |
>  | O     X     O    |   | X     X  X  O    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 169  O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 52

Maybe we should just make the four point instead? It gives us a clear
advantage in position and if we can hit something soon we might have a cube.

bar/20 6/4.

Rollout: Which hit?

<tk5r1b$2fnk7$4@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Which hit?
Date: Sat, 5 Nov 2022 10:12:59 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 5 Nov 2022 14:12 UTC

XGID=--aBA-D-a-A-dD---d-e----BA:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | X | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 169 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

Ah...clem cleverly avoided my subject-line trap. O is not really
threatening much, so there's no urgent need for a tempo hit, and
the hitting plays are not very attractive compared to just making
the 4pt.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 6/4 eq:-0.080
Player: 47.36% (G:15.83% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 52.64% (G:14.09% B:1.11%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.097..-0.064) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/8* eq:-0.169 (-0.088)
Player: 46.68% (G:14.84% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 53.32% (G:19.04% B:1.91%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.187..-0.151) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/20 4/2* eq:-0.211 (-0.131)
Player: 44.61% (G:14.61% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 55.39% (G:17.10% B:1.43%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.227..-0.195) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ Bar/20 10/8* eq:-0.237 (-0.156)
Player: 45.23% (G:13.38% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 54.77% (G:18.59% B:1.51%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.254..-0.219) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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