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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Would you call this a blitz cube?

SubjectAuthor
* Would you call this a blitz cube?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Would you call this a blitz cube?ah...Clem
+- Re: Would you call this a blitz cube?Stick Rice
`- Rollout: Would you call this a blitz cube?Timothy Chow

1
Would you call this a blitz cube?

<tk5r2r$2fnk7$5@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Would you call this a blitz cube?
Date: Sat, 5 Nov 2022 10:13:47 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 5 Nov 2022 14:13 UTC

XGID=a-b-BBBbC--BcC---A-cb--b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O X | | |
| O X X O | | X X X O |
| O X X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 178 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Would you call this a blitz cube?

<tk658u$2alr1$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Would you call this a blitz cube?
Date: Sat, 5 Nov 2022 13:07:40 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Sat, 5 Nov 2022 17:07 UTC

On 11/5/2022 10:13 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=a-b-BBBbC--BcC---A-cb--b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           X    |   | O  O        O    |
>  | X                |   | O  O        O    |
>  | X                |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  | O           X    |   |                  |
>  | O  X        X  O |   | X  X  X     O    |
>  | O  X        X  O |   | X  X  X     O    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 132  O: 178 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

Hard to really blitz the opponent off the board when they hold an
anchor. Looks to develop into a bar point holding game and I'm not
seeing many market losers, so I'll hold this one. If I'm right I guess
that means it's not a blitz cube since it's not a cube of any kind.

Re: Would you call this a blitz cube?

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Subject: Re: Would you call this a blitz cube?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sat, 5 Nov 2022 17:24 UTC

On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 10:13:49 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=a-b-BBBbC--BcC---A-cb--b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X | | O O O |
> | X | | O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | O X | | |
> | O X X O | | X X X O |
> | O X X O | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 132 O: 178 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Not a blitz cube even though gammon wins are in the ballpark of where many blitz cubes are. A blitz by definition aims to close the opponent out completely.

Stick

Rollout: Would you call this a blitz cube?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Would you call this a blitz cube?
Date: Mon, 7 Nov 2022 08:27:34 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 7 Nov 2022 13:27 UTC

XGID=a-b-BBBbC--BcC---A-cb--b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O X | | |
| O X X O | | X X X O |
| O X X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 178 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

As Stick says, the term "blitz" is (usually) not used when the "blitzee"
has an anchor, but there are a lot of positions that, except for the
anchor, are similar to a blitz. I collect these positions separately,
because they come up often, and the effect of the anchor is not so easy
to judge in many cases.

Here, XG says it's a clear pass, but if we upgrade O's 2pt to her 3pt,
it pushes the rollout into take territory (see variant below).

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.61% (G:22.61% B:1.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.39% (G:3.82% B:0.13%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.02% (G:22.23% B:1.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.98% (G:3.92% B:0.13%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.989 (-0.011)
Double/Take: +1.098 (+0.098)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.983..+0.996)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+1.080..+1.116)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a-b-BBBbC--BcC---A-cb-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O X | | |
| O X X O | | X X X O |
| O X X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 180 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 70.48% (G:22.44% B:1.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.52% (G:4.19% B:0.16%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.83% (G:22.00% B:1.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.17% (G:4.31% B:0.17%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.938 (-0.032)
Double/Take: +0.970
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.030)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.922..+0.954)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.950..+0.990)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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