On Monday, August 15, 2022 at 11:41:39 PM UTC+8, David P. wrote:
> Europe’s Energy Crisis May Get a Lot Worse
> By David Wallace-Wells, Aug. 10, 2022, NY Times
>
> Q. When we last talked, Europe was working to address a possible energy crisis with supply-side measures — importing liquid natural gas, for instance, and refiring some coal plants, even if that meant more carbon emissions in the short term. Since then, there’s been a lot more attention on demand reductions, as you and Meghan called for in June, and a lot more planning for the possibility of much deeper government interventions in the energy economy. What’s changed?
> ---------------------------------
> I think there’s been a gradual and growing recognition that we are headed into the worst global energy crisis at least since the 1970s and perhaps longer than that.
>
> It’s increasingly clear that Vladimir Putin is using gas as a weapon and trying to supply just enough gas to Europe to keep Europe in a perpetual state of panic about its ability to weather the coming winter. Europe has been finding all the supplies that it can, but governments are realizing that’s not going to be sufficient. There are going to have to be efforts taken to curb demand as well and to prepare for the possibility of really severe energy rationing this winter.
>
> I think now you’re seeing — in terms of the efforts toward efficiency and rationing — some countries are more willing than others. If things become really severe this winter, I fear that you could see European countries start to look out for themselves rather than one another.
>
> Q. What would that mean, functionally?
> ---------------------------------
> It could lead countries to turn against each other in terms of whether energy is allowed to flow across borders. If you’re a country like Germany — which not only consumes a lot of gas but is also a transit country through which gas flows to other European countries — why would you allow gas to flow through your country when you’re shutting down your energy-intensive industries, while your economy is suffering? I think we could start to see governments saying, “Well, we’re going to restrict exports. We’re going to keep our energy at home.” Everyone starts to just look out for themselves, which I think would be exactly what Putin would hope for.

It is likely countries in EU are going to work against each other when their gas requirement is not forthcoming to them in an uninterrupted way in the coming winter months. It's great to see how they re going to survive when they cannot buy enough Russian rubles from Russian banks in Russia to pay for their gas to be supplied to them. Needless to say, Russia should up their gas prices for the coming winter months. Usually gas costs more to produced and delivery is costly as manpower deployed to operate them needs to endure the cold and icy conditions all the times. It's time or never for EU countries to see how Ukraine war can cause to them because US wants them to NATO at Russia..

On Friday, August 26, 2022 at 11:52:18 AM UTC-4, stoney wrote:
> On Monday, August 15, 2022 at 11:41:39 PM UTC+8, David P. wrote:
> > Europe’s Energy Crisis May Get a Lot Worse
> > By David Wallace-Wells, Aug. 10, 2022, NY Times
> >
> > Q. When we last talked, Europe was working to address a possible energy crisis with supply-side measures — importing liquid natural gas, for instance, and refiring some coal plants, even if that meant more carbon emissions in the short term. Since then, there’s been a lot more attention on demand reductions, as you and Meghan called for in June, and a lot more planning for the possibility of much deeper government interventions in the energy economy. What’s changed?
> > ---------------------------------
> > I think there’s been a gradual and growing recognition that we are headed into the worst global energy crisis at least since the 1970s and perhaps longer than that.
> >
> > It’s increasingly clear that Vladimir Putin is using gas as a weapon and trying to supply just enough gas to Europe to keep Europe in a perpetual state of panic about its ability to weather the coming winter. Europe has been finding all the supplies that it can, but governments are realizing that’s not going to be sufficient. There are going to have to be efforts taken to curb demand as well and to prepare for the possibility of really severe energy rationing this winter.
> >
> > I think now you’re seeing — in terms of the efforts toward efficiency and rationing — some countries are more willing than others. If things become really severe this winter, I fear that you could see European countries start to look out for themselves rather than one another.
> >
> > Q. What would that mean, functionally?
> > ---------------------------------
> > It could lead countries to turn against each other in terms of whether energy is allowed to flow across borders. If you’re a country like Germany — which not only consumes a lot of gas but is also a transit country through which gas flows to other European countries — why would you allow gas to flow through your country when you’re shutting down your energy-intensive industries, while your economy is suffering? I think we could start to see governments saying, “Well, we’re going to restrict exports. We’re going to keep our energy at home.” Everyone starts to just look out for themselves, which I think would be exactly what Putin would hope for.

> It is likely countries in EU are going to work against each other when their gas requirement is not forthcoming to them in an uninterrupted way in the coming winter months. It's great to see how they re going to survive when they cannot buy enough Russian rubles from Russian banks in Russia to pay for their gas to be supplied to them. Needless to say, Russia should up their gas prices for the coming winter months. Usually gas costs more to produced and delivery is costly as manpower deployed to operate them needs to endure the cold and icy conditions all the times. It's time or never for EU countries to see how Ukraine war can cause to them because US wants them to NATO at Russia..

US sanction certainly enriched Western oil and gas companies.
And non-energy rich EU nations are indeed for trouble. This includes Ukraine.

Russia currently controls the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plants, the largest in
Europe. It has a total output rated at 5,700 MWatt-e. Ukraine may have to choose
between supplying energy to the military or supply energy to the people if Russia
disconnects the plants from the Ukraine national grid.

ltlee1, <news:02d836b6-bb00-4ddb-bb65-1b9a40d72ca6n@googlegroups.com>
> On Friday, August 26, 2022 at 11:52:18 AM UTC-4, stoney wrote:

>> It is likely countries in EU are going to work against each other when
>> their gas requirement is not forthcoming to them in an uninterrupted way in
>> the coming winter months. It's great to see how they re going to survive
>> when they cannot buy enough Russian rubles from Russian banks in Russia to
>> pay for their gas to be supplied to them. Needless to say, Russia should up
>> their gas prices for the coming winter months. Usually gas costs more to
>> produced and delivery is costly as manpower deployed to operate them needs
>> to endure the cold and icy conditions all the times. It's time or never for
>> EU countries to see how Ukraine war can cause to them because US wants them
>> to NATO at Russia..
>
> US sanction certainly enriched Western oil and gas companies.
> And non-energy rich EU nations are indeed for trouble. This includes
> Ukraine.
>
> Russia currently controls the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plants, the largest
> in Europe. It has a total output rated at 5,700 MWatt-e. Ukraine may have to
> choose between supplying energy to the military or supply energy to the
> people if Russia disconnects the plants from the Ukraine national grid.

Currently there's no electricity shortage in the Kiev-held territory, because
of reducing need for it. Inter alia, that's why some weeks ago there were
talks in Kiev that they might export electricity to Europe (to help Europe
cope with the energy crisis). In the structure of the Ukraine's (pre-2022.02)
electricity consumption, people's households took about 1/3 of the total, but
now most industrial plants there are stopped or dysfunctional, which leaves a
big amount of electricity unclaimed.

Russian military took control over the Zaporozhia plant since early March, and
so far most of its electricity went to the Kiev-held territory. Now the Kiev
regime has found it preferable to neglect this electricity in favor of a PR
manipulation. In the recent weeks, Kiev troops were increasingly shelling the
plant (whereas Kiev propaganda claimed these are Russians shelling themselves)
which is accompanied with talks about "coming nuclear catastrophe" which makes
a pretext for "international involvement" (and the latter is what Kiev wants).

Experts say that the construction of the plant is so that Chernobyl-like case
is virtually impossible there, even under heavy shelling, but the shelling may
still cause some leaks because there's also a storage of radioactive waste,
which is less protected (and I'm not an expert and have no idea about the way
the described situation would be resolved).

On Friday, August 26, 2022 at 2:17:01 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> ltlee1, <news:02d836b6-bb00-4ddb...@googlegroups.com>
> > On Friday, August 26, 2022 at 11:52:18 AM UTC-4, stoney wrote:
>
> >> It is likely countries in EU are going to work against each other when
> >> their gas requirement is not forthcoming to them in an uninterrupted way in
> >> the coming winter months. It's great to see how they re going to survive
> >> when they cannot buy enough Russian rubles from Russian banks in Russia to
> >> pay for their gas to be supplied to them. Needless to say, Russia should up
> >> their gas prices for the coming winter months. Usually gas costs more to
> >> produced and delivery is costly as manpower deployed to operate them needs
> >> to endure the cold and icy conditions all the times. It's time or never for
> >> EU countries to see how Ukraine war can cause to them because US wants them
> >> to NATO at Russia..
> >
> > US sanction certainly enriched Western oil and gas companies.
> > And non-energy rich EU nations are indeed for trouble. This includes
> > Ukraine.
> >
> > Russia currently controls the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plants, the largest
> > in Europe. It has a total output rated at 5,700 MWatt-e. Ukraine may have to
> > choose between supplying energy to the military or supply energy to the
> > people if Russia disconnects the plants from the Ukraine national grid.
> Currently there's no electricity shortage in the Kiev-held territory, because
> of reducing need for it. Inter alia, that's why some weeks ago there were
> talks in Kiev that they might export electricity to Europe (to help Europe
> cope with the energy crisis). In the structure of the Ukraine's (pre-2022.02)
> electricity consumption, people's households took about 1/3 of the total, but
> now most industrial plants there are stopped or dysfunctional, which leaves a
> big amount of electricity unclaimed.
>
> Russian military took control over the Zaporozhia plant since early March, and
> so far most of its electricity went to the Kiev-held territory. Now the Kiev
> regime has found it preferable to neglect this electricity in favor of a PR
> manipulation. In the recent weeks, Kiev troops were increasingly shelling the
> plant (whereas Kiev propaganda claimed these are Russians shelling themselves)
> which is accompanied with talks about "coming nuclear catastrophe" which makes
> a pretext for "international involvement" (and the latter is what Kiev wants).

And international involvement as a way to prevent Russia from cutting off supply to
Ukraine held territory.

>
> Experts say that the construction of the plant is so that Chernobyl-like case
> is virtually impossible there, even under heavy shelling, but the shelling may
> still cause some leaks because there's also a storage of radioactive waste,
> which is less protected (and I'm not an expert and have no idea about the way
> the described situation would be resolved).

ltlee1, <news:e9ee673f-4eb4-4569-958a-fc51929419bdn@googlegroups.com>
> On Friday, August 26, 2022 at 2:17:01 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
>> ltlee1, <news:02d836b6-bb00-4ddb...@googlegroups.com>

>>> US sanction certainly enriched Western oil and gas companies.
>>> And non-energy rich EU nations are indeed for trouble. This includes
>>> Ukraine.
>>>
>>> Russia currently controls the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plants, the
>>> largest in Europe. It has a total output rated at 5,700 MWatt-e.
>>> Ukraine may have to choose between supplying energy to the military
>>> or supply energy to the people if Russia disconnects the plants from
>>> the Ukraine national grid.
>>
>> Currently there's no electricity shortage in the Kiev-held territory,
>> because of reducing need for it. Inter alia, that's why some weeks ago
>> there were talks in Kiev that they might export electricity to Europe
>> (to help Europe cope with the energy crisis). In the structure of the
>> Ukraine's (pre-2022.02) electricity consumption, people's households
>> took about 1/3 of the total, but now most industrial plants there are
>> stopped or dysfunctional, which leaves a big amount of electricity
>> unclaimed.
>>
>> Russian military took control over the Zaporozhia plant since early
>> March, and so far most of its electricity went to the Kiev-held
>> territory. Now the Kiev regime has found it preferable to neglect this
>> electricity in favor of a PR manipulation. In the recent weeks, Kiev
>> troops were increasingly shelling the plant (whereas Kiev propaganda
>> claimed these are Russians shelling themselves) which is accompanied
>> with talks about "coming nuclear catastrophe" which makes a pretext
>> for "international involvement" (and the latter is what Kiev wants).
>
> And international involvement as a way to prevent Russia from cutting
> off supply to Ukraine held territory.

For the regime, "international" (Western) involvement is the only
factor that can prolong its existence, so they would desperately
make up any pretexts and resort to any kind of alarmism that might
provoke and speciously justify such involvement (while the supply
as such is of secondary importance against that).

>> Experts say that the construction of the plant is so that Chernobyl-like
>> case is virtually impossible there, even under heavy shelling, but the
>> shelling may still cause some leaks because there's also a storage of
>> radioactive waste, which is less protected (and I'm not an expert and
>> have no idea about the way the described situation would be resolved).

On Friday, August 26, 2022 at 7:04:55 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> ltlee1, <news:e9ee673f-4eb4-4569...@googlegroups.com>
> > On Friday, August 26, 2022 at 2:17:01 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> >> ltlee1, <news:02d836b6-bb00-4ddb...@googlegroups.com>
> >>> US sanction certainly enriched Western oil and gas companies.
> >>> And non-energy rich EU nations are indeed for trouble. This includes
> >>> Ukraine.
> >>>
> >>> Russia currently controls the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plants, the
> >>> largest in Europe. It has a total output rated at 5,700 MWatt-e.
> >>> Ukraine may have to choose between supplying energy to the military
> >>> or supply energy to the people if Russia disconnects the plants from
> >>> the Ukraine national grid.
> >>
> >> Currently there's no electricity shortage in the Kiev-held territory,
> >> because of reducing need for it. Inter alia, that's why some weeks ago
> >> there were talks in Kiev that they might export electricity to Europe
> >> (to help Europe cope with the energy crisis). In the structure of the
> >> Ukraine's (pre-2022.02) electricity consumption, people's households
> >> took about 1/3 of the total, but now most industrial plants there are
> >> stopped or dysfunctional, which leaves a big amount of electricity
> >> unclaimed.
> >>
> >> Russian military took control over the Zaporozhia plant since early
> >> March, and so far most of its electricity went to the Kiev-held
> >> territory. Now the Kiev regime has found it preferable to neglect this
> >> electricity in favor of a PR manipulation. In the recent weeks, Kiev
> >> troops were increasingly shelling the plant (whereas Kiev propaganda
> >> claimed these are Russians shelling themselves) which is accompanied
> >> with talks about "coming nuclear catastrophe" which makes a pretext
> >> for "international involvement" (and the latter is what Kiev wants).
> >
> > And international involvement as a way to prevent Russia from cutting
> > off supply to Ukraine held territory.
> For the regime, "international" (Western) involvement is the only
> factor that can prolong its existence, so they would desperately
> make up any pretexts and resort to any kind of alarmism that might
> provoke and speciously justify such involvement (while the supply
> as such is of secondary importance against that).
> >> Experts say that the construction of the plant is so that Chernobyl-like
> >> case is virtually impossible there, even under heavy shelling, but the
> >> shelling may still cause some leaks because there's also a storage of
> >> radioactive waste, which is less protected (and I'm not an expert and
> >> have no idea about the way the described situation would be resolved).

According to the following Sina.com article, Zelenskky is in trouble.
https://news.sina.com.cn/w/2022-08-24/doc-imizirav9409633.shtml

In short, two problems:
1, Zelenskyy had changed his focus on internal political struggle.
2. The West as a whole does not buy his role as a war time hero.

下半场：沉迷“内斗”的总统

　　4月初，俄军全面从基辅方向撤离，泽连斯基公开宣布乌军取得了“重大胜利”。4月19日，
俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫表示，俄军在乌特别军事行动进入了第二阶段，即全面控制乌东部顿巴斯
地区和乌克兰南部，“顿巴斯会战”就此全面打响。

有报道称，随着乌南部及顿巴斯局势日益严峻，乌克兰政府面临的挑战与日俱增，无论是“在国
防还是政治方面”。尽管此前在基辅、哈尔科夫等地取得了胜利，但马里乌波尔和北顿涅茨克的
失守令“乌克兰传统的政治纷争卷土重来”。

　　一方面，前总统波罗申科领导的反对派利用顿巴斯的战局，开始抨击、质疑泽连斯基团队和
他们采取的战术。另一方面，有关泽连斯基政府闹“内讧”的传言四起。美国研究机构威尔逊学者
中心（Wilson Center）米纳科夫表示，随着基辅的硝烟散去，在俄乌冲突的第三个月，乌克兰政
坛熟悉的政治争吵和互相攻击似乎又回来了。

　　与此同时，不断忙着在国际上求助的泽连斯基，“工作重心”也开始有所转变。当地时间7月17
日，泽连斯基解雇了自己的发小、乌国家安全局局长伊万·巴卡诺夫和总检察长伊琳娜·韦涅季克托
娃，引起了外界对乌克兰政府内部的关注。

　　随后，泽连斯基发动了一场大规模“内部清洗行动”，开始抓“内鬼”。当时，泽连斯基将这一过
程称为“自我净化”，并表示已有至少651起针对乌克兰执法部门和检察机关人员“通敌叛国”案件被
立案。而在过去一个月内，乌国家安全局等重要机构领导层遭遇“大规模裁员”，乌克兰政府及地区
的多位高官相继被撤职。

而这一切仍未结束，当地时间8月22日，刚与泽连斯基见完面的土耳其总统埃尔多安透露，泽连斯基
怀疑其核心集团的忠诚度，并对此感到“忧心忡忡”。他表示，泽连斯基称周围人“经常欺骗他，担心自
己被亲近的人利用”。

　　与此同时，乌克兰地方政府官员也公开与泽连斯基“撕破了脸”，让乌内部的“内讧”彻底浮出了水面
。多名乌克兰地方市长本月公开表达了对泽连斯基及其政府的不满，称泽连斯基政府试图排挤地方官员
，以维持对大量国际援助资金的控制，并趁机打压竞争对手。

　　7月，此前一直与泽连斯基政府站在一起的切尔尼戈夫市市长阿特罗申科突然宣布与乌政府“决裂”，
并指责泽连斯基的“同伙”试图将他赶下台。他表示，“如今抵抗的不是敌人的攻击，而是上级的攻击”。

“战时英雄”或被西方所“抛弃”？

　　除了忙着“排除异己”和“怀疑身边人”外，泽连斯基近段时间还忙着与乌军总司令瓦列里·扎卢日内
“斗法”。
据报道，随着乌军在顿巴斯地区“节节溃败”，西方“金主”对泽连斯基施加的压力也越来越大。7月17日，
乌克兰扎波罗热州行政总委会（战时管理机构）委员弗拉基米尔·罗戈夫透露，西方国家已经向泽连斯
基当局下达最后通牒——“斯拉维扬斯克一旦失守，对乌政府的资金援助就别想了。”

　　事实上，近两个月以来，美国及西方国家释放的众多“信号”表明，西方不仅厌倦了俄乌冲突，而且
对泽连斯基政府的腐败“感到恼火”。本月，前美国白宫记者托马斯·弗里德曼也在专栏文章中透露，白宫
对乌克兰当局的不信任比在公开场合表现出来的要多得多，其中也包括泽连斯基。

　　与此同时，有关泽连斯基政府即将辞职的传言也闹得沸沸扬扬。8月8日，俄媒透露，美国可能已开
始寻找泽连斯基的“接班人”，在俄乌冲突中“表现亮眼”的乌军总司令瓦列里·扎卢日内或将取代泽连斯基。

　　据悉，两人之间早已产生了矛盾。今年6月，白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科也曾透露，乌总统和乌军方高
级将领之间的矛盾正在加剧，“争吵在一个月前就出现了”。

8月17日，乌内部消息人士表示，担心被“表现亮眼”的扎卢日内“抢了功劳”，泽连斯基正计划“换帅”让其
转任乌克兰国防部长。报道称，泽连斯基可能无法成功罢免扎卢日内，因为后者在乌克兰民众及“外国伙
伴”中都有着极高的支持率，而泽连斯基在西方的地位正逐渐被扎卢日内所取代。

俄乌冲突持续六个月之际，美国及西方国家似乎“正悄悄拉开与泽连斯基的距离”。乌克兰前议员阿列克
谢·茹拉夫科指出，喜剧演员出身的泽连斯基已不适合出任乌克兰总统了。美国海军陆战队前情报官员斯
科特·里特也认为，泽连斯基已经失去了西方领导人的支持，他们已经不再相信泽连斯基塑造的“英雄形
象”。
... 红星新闻记者 徐缓"

ltlee1, <news:f6ea75fd-0c23-42f7-8123-f0f826154c7bn@googlegroups.com>
> On Friday, August 26, 2022 at 7:04:55 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:

> According to the following Sina.com article, Zelenskky is in trouble.
> https://news.sina.com.cn/w/2022-08-24/doc-imizirav9409633.shtml
>
> In short, two problems:
> 1, Zelenskyy had changed his focus on internal political struggle.
> 2. The West as a whole does not buy his role as a war time hero.

The Atlanticism likely has some end-game scenario, which
maybe includes replacement of Zelensky with a new leader.
But so far things don't look like end-game is coming soon.
Although, I've no idea what may be going on there behind
the scenes.

On Monday, August 29, 2022 at 4:28:54 AM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> ltlee1, <news:f6ea75fd-0c23-42f7...@googlegroups.com>
> > On Friday, August 26, 2022 at 7:04:55 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
>
> > According to the following Sina.com article, Zelenskky is in trouble.
> > https://news.sina.com.cn/w/2022-08-24/doc-imizirav9409633.shtml
> >
> > In short, two problems:
> > 1, Zelenskyy had changed his focus on internal political struggle.
> > 2. The West as a whole does not buy his role as a war time hero.
> The Atlanticism likely has some end-game scenario, which
> maybe includes replacement of Zelensky with a new leader.
> But so far things don't look like end-game is coming soon.
> Although, I've no idea what may be going on there behind
> the scenes.

It is one thing to help Ukraine short term. Will Europe support a protracted
fight in the absence of world wide support? If not, Ukraine has to be sacrificed
for peace. Zelenskyy, without doubt, think differently.

By shelling close to the nuclear plant, Zelenskyy is blackmailing European
nations to sacrifice more and to give more support to him/Ukraine.

On Monday, August 29, 2022 at 7:59:33 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Monday, August 29, 2022 at 4:28:54 AM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> > ltlee1, <news:f6ea75fd-0c23-42f7...@googlegroups.com>
> > > On Friday, August 26, 2022 at 7:04:55 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> >
> > > According to the following Sina.com article, Zelenskky is in trouble.
> > > https://news.sina.com.cn/w/2022-08-24/doc-imizirav9409633.shtml
> > >
> > > In short, two problems:
> > > 1, Zelenskyy had changed his focus on internal political struggle.
> > > 2. The West as a whole does not buy his role as a war time hero.
> > The Atlanticism likely has some end-game scenario, which
> > maybe includes replacement of Zelensky with a new leader.
> > But so far things don't look like end-game is coming soon.
> > Although, I've no idea what may be going on there behind
> > the scenes.
> It is one thing to help Ukraine short term. Will Europe support a protracted
> fight in the absence of world wide support? If not, Ukraine has to be sacrificed
> for peace. Zelenskyy, without doubt, think differently.
>
> By shelling close to the nuclear plant, Zelenskyy is blackmailing European
> nations to sacrifice more and to give more support to him/Ukraine.

Russia should disconnect the various source points of the power grid to the nuclear plant.