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interests / rec.games.backgammon / If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?

SubjectAuthor
* If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?Timothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?Stick Rice
  `- Re: Rollout: If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?Nasti Chestikov

1
If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?

<tldrsi$3ilfg$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?
Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2022 13:32:51 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 20 Nov 2022 18:32 UTC

XGID=-c-B--E-BAA-dBa----c--bbAA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X O |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?

<tlil1d$3onh$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?
Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2022 09:06:38 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 22 Nov 2022 14:06 UTC

XGID=-c-B--E-BAA-dBa----c--bbAA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X O |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

I'm not sure about the answer to the question in the subject line,
but regardless, none of the sixes is particularly pleasant to play.
Being ahead in the race, I felt that the choice was between 24/18
and 21/15. However, XG thinks both of those plays are whoppers
with cheese. I think this position is a good illustration of
Magriel's criteria, which all point toward a safe play; 9/3 may
look ugly, but it's certainly safe.

The variant below illustrates the same point about safety. With
O's blot shifted to her 8pt, bar/15 becomes the safer play.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 9/3 eq:+0.071
Player: 51.19% (G:20.08% B:2.15%)
Opponent: 48.81% (G:17.60% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.062..+0.079) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 10/4 eq:-0.009 (-0.079)
Player: 50.27% (G:19.71% B:2.06%)
Opponent: 49.73% (G:20.19% B:1.73%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.017..-0.001) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout² Bar/21 24/18 eq:-0.064 (-0.134)
Player: 49.47% (G:18.68% B:1.91%)
Opponent: 50.53% (G:22.17% B:2.13%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.079..-0.048) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² Bar/15 eq:-0.096 (-0.166)
Player: 48.77% (G:18.47% B:1.96%)
Opponent: 51.23% (G:22.79% B:2.06%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.112..-0.080) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-c-B--E-BAA-dB---a-c--bbAA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X O |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ Bar/15 eq:+0.009
Player: 51.19% (G:18.54% B:1.84%)
Opponent: 48.81% (G:20.95% B:1.80%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.002..+0.017) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 9/3 eq:-0.046 (-0.055)
Player: 48.94% (G:18.48% B:1.80%)
Opponent: 51.06% (G:19.37% B:1.13%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.055..-0.038) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?

<a4ff7dc8-90d2-4729-a5ed-4b2674f0bca0n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
Injection-Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2022 13:36:12 +0000
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 23 Nov 2022 13:36 UTC

On Tuesday, November 22, 2022 at 9:06:39 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-c-B--E-BAA-dBa----c--bbAA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | X | | O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X O |
> | O X | | X X O |
> | O X X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 146 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> I'm not sure about the answer to the question in the subject line,
> but regardless, none of the sixes is particularly pleasant to play.
> Being ahead in the race, I felt that the choice was between 24/18
> and 21/15. However, XG thinks both of those plays are whoppers
> with cheese. I think this position is a good illustration of
> Magriel's criteria, which all point toward a safe play; 9/3 may
> look ugly, but it's certainly safe.
>
> The variant below illustrates the same point about safety. With
> O's blot shifted to her 8pt, bar/15 becomes the safer play.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 9/3 eq:+0.071
> Player: 51.19% (G:20.08% B:2.15%)
> Opponent: 48.81% (G:17.60% B:0.94%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.062..+0.079) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 10/4 eq:-0.009 (-0.079)
> Player: 50.27% (G:19.71% B:2.06%)
> Opponent: 49.73% (G:20.19% B:1.73%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.017..-0.001) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout² Bar/21 24/18 eq:-0.064 (-0.134)
> Player: 49.47% (G:18.68% B:1.91%)
> Opponent: 50.53% (G:22.17% B:2.13%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.079..-0.048) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout² Bar/15 eq:-0.096 (-0.166)
> Player: 48.77% (G:18.47% B:1.96%)
> Opponent: 51.23% (G:22.79% B:2.06%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.112..-0.080) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-c-B--E-BAA-dB---a-c--bbAA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | X | | O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X O |
> | O X | | X X O |
> | O X X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 146 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> 1. Rollout¹ Bar/15 eq:+0.009
> Player: 51.19% (G:18.54% B:1.84%)
> Opponent: 48.81% (G:20.95% B:1.80%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.002..+0.017) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 9/3 eq:-0.046 (-0.055)
> Player: 48.94% (G:18.48% B:1.80%)
> Opponent: 51.06% (G:19.37% B:1.13%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.055..-0.038) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

It is better to not have played a six.

Stick

Re: Rollout: If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?

<716f3e19-c1f7-436e-b0ea-d69155d86843n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: If you didn't have to play the 6 at all, would you?
From: nasti.ch...@gmail.com (Nasti Chestikov)
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 by: Nasti Chestikov - Thu, 24 Nov 2022 17:57 UTC

On Wednesday, 23 November 2022 at 13:36:13 UTC, Stick Rice wrote:

> It is better to not have played a six.
>
> Stick

Amusingly, I thought the same but then thought I must have got it wrong.

Glad that a top-notch player like Stick has backed up my instincts.

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