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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Not a good roll

SubjectAuthor
* Not a good rollTimothy Chow
+- Re: Not a good rollah....Clem
`* Rollout: Not a good rollTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Not a good rollStick Rice

1
Not a good roll

<tlil66$3onh$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Not a good roll
Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2022 09:09:11 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 22 Nov 2022 14:09 UTC

XGID=--Aa-BC-CaB-bC----cdbAb---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

Re: Not a good roll

<tlogt6$nbss$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Not a good roll
Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2022 14:32:55 -0500
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Thu, 24 Nov 2022 19:32 UTC

On 11/22/2022 9:09 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--Aa-BC-CaB-bC----cdbAb---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X              O |   | O  O  X  O       |
>  | X              O |   | O  O     O       |
>  | X              O |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |             X    |   | X                |
>  | O     X     X    |   | X  X             |
>  | O     X  O  X    |   | X  X     O  X    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 134  O: 125 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 32

Well, it's not that bad a roll. It would have been noce to have hit a
blot or run the straggler, but neither is in the cards.

X is not too far behind in the race so volunteering a shot seems like
the wrong approach. That seems to leave either 13/10 8/6 of 13/8. So,
where is the better place for the stack? Il'l leave the extra spare on
the 8 so that it's not stripped and we have two points with spares aimed
at the runner. 13/8.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Not a good roll

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Not a good roll
Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2022 19:23:31 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 25 Nov 2022 00:23 UTC

XGID=--Aa-BC-CaB-bC----cdbAb---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

According to XG, 32 is X's worst roll, except possibly for 21 and 52.
But in any case, what should X play here? He is behind in the race
and his straggler is in danger of getting attacked. XG's play is
5/2 5/3*! A point-switching play like this is fairly standard during
a blitz, but this doesn't look like a blitzing position. But hitting
does gain a tempo, making it harder for O to attack X's straggler, and
it *could* turn into a blitz if O rolls poorly---she has another blot
in the outfield and X has a lot of checkers in the zone. Of course,
X won't be happy if O enters with a 3, but 3's would hit anyway after
a passive play like 13/8.

1. Rollout¹ 5/2 5/3* eq:-0.364
Player: 41.17% (G:10.94% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 58.83% (G:22.71% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.375..-0.353) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3* eq:-0.416 (-0.053)
Player: 40.59% (G:11.20% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 59.41% (G:26.80% B:1.12%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.430..-0.403) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/3* eq:-0.472 (-0.108)
Player: 39.63% (G:10.41% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 60.37% (G:28.48% B:1.62%)
Confidence: ±0.021 (-0.493..-0.451) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/10 8/6 eq:-0.542 (-0.178)
Player: 36.50% (G:8.37% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 63.50% (G:21.08% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.553..-0.531) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.543 (-0.179)
Player: 36.46% (G:8.12% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 63.54% (G:20.40% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.554..-0.532) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Not a good roll

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Not a good roll
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Fri, 25 Nov 2022 01:13 UTC

On Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 7:23:33 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=--Aa-BC-CaB-bC----cdbAb---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O X O |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | X O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | X |
> | O X X | | X X |
> | O X O X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 134 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 32
> According to XG, 32 is X's worst roll, except possibly for 21 and 52.
> But in any case, what should X play here? He is behind in the race
> and his straggler is in danger of getting attacked. XG's play is
> 5/2 5/3*! A point-switching play like this is fairly standard during
> a blitz, but this doesn't look like a blitzing position. But hitting
> does gain a tempo, making it harder for O to attack X's straggler, and
> it *could* turn into a blitz if O rolls poorly---she has another blot
> in the outfield and X has a lot of checkers in the zone. Of course,
> X won't be happy if O enters with a 3, but 3's would hit anyway after
> a passive play like 13/8.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 5/2 5/3* eq:-0.364
> Player: 41.17% (G:10.94% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 58.83% (G:22.71% B:0.66%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.375..-0.353) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/3* eq:-0.416 (-0.053)
> Player: 40.59% (G:11.20% B:0.44%)
> Opponent: 59.41% (G:26.80% B:1.12%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.430..-0.403) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/3* eq:-0.472 (-0.108)
> Player: 39.63% (G:10.41% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 60.37% (G:28.48% B:1.62%)
> Confidence: ±0.021 (-0.493..-0.451) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 13/10 8/6 eq:-0.542 (-0.178)
> Player: 36.50% (G:8.37% B:0.46%)
> Opponent: 63.50% (G:21.08% B:0.53%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.553..-0.531) - [0.0%]
>
> 5. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.543 (-0.179)
> Player: 36.46% (G:8.12% B:0.33%)
> Opponent: 63.54% (G:20.40% B:0.53%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.554..-0.532) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

[52 21] are clearly worse than [32].

Stick

1
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