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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Which blot do you hit?

SubjectAuthor
* Which blot do you hit?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Which blot do you hit?ah....Clem
`* Rollout: Which blot do you hit?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Which blot do you hit?Stick Rice

1
Which blot do you hit?

<tlr133$129b0$5@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Which blot do you hit?
Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2022 13:21:23 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 25 Nov 2022 18:21 UTC

XGID=-a-a--E-CBA-bB-a-cAeb---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Re: Which blot do you hit?

<tlrl8t$13oqm$2@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Which blot do you hit?
Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2022 19:05:49 -0500
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Sat, 26 Nov 2022 00:05 UTC

On 11/25/2022 1:21 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a-a--E-CBA-bB-a-cAeb---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X     O     O  X |   | O  O           X |
>  | X           O    |   | O  O             |
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |             X    |   | X                |
>  | O        X  X    |   | X                |
>  | O     X  X  X    |   | X        O     O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 150  O: 146 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 65

Is it right to hit any?

Making the four point creates a permanent asset.
Making the bar point and slotting the five point looks playable too.

But pointing on her head on the three point looks better. So does making
the 18 and hitting loose on the three. Making the bar point while xe
hitting loose on the ace seems to minimize shots, but I don't like
burying one on the ace. That may well be the bot move.

I'll go for the poh play, but without much conviction.

9/3* 8/3.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Which blot do you hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Which blot do you hit?
Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2022 09:36:26 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 28 Nov 2022 14:36 UTC

XGID=-a-a--E-CBA-bB-a-cAeb---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

Ah...clem suggested 9/3* 8/3, which might be gammon go play, but it's
too loose for most match scores. But ah...clem did catch the "trick"
in my subject line; maybe X shouldn't hit at all? The main non-hitting
play to consider is 24/18 10/5, which is nice if it works, but it does
volunteer a lot of extra shots. XG favors 24/18 6/1*, which has the
advantage of minimizing return shots, and may also force that blot
to move forward. Since X has no board, O would like to stay back for
more shot-hitting opportunities.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/1* eq:+0.032
Player: 51.89% (G:11.61% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 48.11% (G:14.34% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.018..+0.045) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 10/5 eq:-0.065 (-0.097)
Player: 49.04% (G:12.39% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 50.96% (G:15.99% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.081..-0.049) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/3* eq:-0.103 (-0.135)
Player: 48.52% (G:12.55% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 51.48% (G:17.74% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.119..-0.088) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Which blot do you hit?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Which blot do you hit?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 28 Nov 2022 21:49 UTC

On Monday, November 28, 2022 at 9:36:27 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a-a--E-CBA-bB-a-cAeb---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O X | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X |
> | O X X | | X |
> | O X X X | | X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 150 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 65
> Ah...clem suggested 9/3* 8/3, which might be gammon go play, but it's
> too loose for most match scores. But ah...clem did catch the "trick"
> in my subject line; maybe X shouldn't hit at all? The main non-hitting
> play to consider is 24/18 10/5, which is nice if it works, but it does
> volunteer a lot of extra shots. XG favors 24/18 6/1*, which has the
> advantage of minimizing return shots, and may also force that blot
> to move forward. Since X has no board, O would like to stay back for
> more shot-hitting opportunities.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/1* eq:+0.032
> Player: 51.89% (G:11.61% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 48.11% (G:14.34% B:0.50%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.018..+0.045) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 24/18 10/5 eq:-0.065 (-0.097)
> Player: 49.04% (G:12.39% B:0.54%)
> Opponent: 50.96% (G:15.99% B:0.58%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.081..-0.049) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/3* eq:-0.103 (-0.135)
> Player: 48.52% (G:12.55% B:0.57%)
> Opponent: 51.48% (G:17.74% B:0.70%)
> Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.119..-0.088) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The plays are essentially tied at gammon go.

Stick

1
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